Topic: Jay's new article 2/3/14

[poconopenn]

Jay's article was scientifically incorrect. The current price has nothing to do with the actual appreciation of the investment. The cost of silver panda had a higher premium when they were issued, therfore, a higher base line. I am sure if you bought 2010-2012 silver pandas during the years they issued, you lost more money than if you bought Eagles in this down market. Timing is everything for any investment, especially in commodities, such as silver and gold.

[Mirkkanen]

I bought (20) 2010 silver pandas from a private seller at $21 per coin when silver was just above $19. They were retailing for $6 over if I remember correctly, but this guy wanted to turn them into gold so he sold them to me cheaply.

If I had bought eagles from him, I would have paid the same price . . . $21 per coin. I chose the pandas. Today, if I sold 20 eagles, I'd make $40 profit - shipping. Selling the pandas at $36 each, I'd make $300 profit -shipping.

Am I missing something, or were pandas the better choice?

(Even if I'd bought them for spot plus $10 back in 2010 ($29 per coin), I'd be looking at $140 profit -shipping)

[PandaQuest]

Jay's article was scientifically incorrect. The current price has nothing to do with the actual appreciation of the investment. The cost of silver panda had a higher premium when they were issued, therfore, a higher base line. I am sure if you bought 2010-2012 silver pandas during the years they issued, you lost more money than if you bought Eagles in this down market. Timing is everything for any investment, especially in commodities, such as silver and gold.

If you could Poconopenn show us a correct analysis of the newer issued silver pandas.

[Wafdawg]

You really have to view this from a long term prospective.  China is getting precious metals into the hands of their citizens.  The East is hoarding gold.  Silver is the poor man's gold.  I think we all expect China to grow and be the world's economic engine in the future.  So in 10 years I think we will look back and see that 8 million will be a small mintage size comparatively to what lies ahead in the future.  I can easily see China authorizing mintage numbers equalling today's ASE numbers.  And to Peter's point, these are authorized mintage numbers, not actual. Now 8 million is still high compared to the mintage numbers of the 90's and early 2000's but you have to realize that those days are over.  Those coins will just be worth that much more.

[Pandora]

From the supply side, when the market is down, there will always be more eagle sellers than panda. It is even more true in good market. Most of the eagle buyers are bullion collectors, while panda buyers are coin collectors. Long term, Panda will win in general, unless a particular eagle gets rare.

[comeaux]

Most of the eagle buyers are bullion collectors, while panda buyers are coin collectors

I agree as well ...

Also why does it always have to be about investment? Can't we just buy Pandas and other coins simply for the love of collecting coins? 

[poconopenn]

I bought (20) 2010 silver pandas from a private seller at $21 per coin when silver was just above $19. They were retailing for $6 over if I remember correctly, but this guy wanted to turn them into gold so he sold them to me cheaply.

If I had bought eagles from him, I would have paid the same price . . . $21 per coin. I chose the pandas. Today, if I sold 20 eagles, I'd make $40 profit - shipping. Selling the pandas at $36 each, I'd make $300 profit -shipping.

Am I missing something, or were pandas the better choice?

(Even if I'd bought them for spot plus $10 back in 2010 ($29 per coin), I'd be looking at $140 profit -shipping)

My comment was referred to a “down market”, not an “up market”. My recollection of 2010 silver panda price was at least $15 premium over the spot and 2014 silver panda still has a premium of $11 over the spot. The cost base line of silver panda and silver eagle has at least $11 difference. If you count the premium difference, the advantage of investment in post-2010 silver panda over Eagle is very limited if there is any. In fact, Chinese is buying Eagles as investment, since the premium is very low over spot.

[Jay]

7 months later, here is a follow-up:

Despite a weak precious metals market, silver pandas have held-up quite well.  Silver panda premiums are holding or increasing has China demand rebounds.  

Silver is now ~$18 vs $20 when I wrote the blog post.

2014 premium is still $8-9
2013 premium is now $12-13  vs $10 in February (the dollar value has held)

2012 price is now $40+ and 2010 $50+, which is $5-10 higher than Feb despite silver being $2 lower.

One can sometimes snipe single coins off ebay for slightly less if you are willing to take the risk, but there is a trend here....
 
My view is that over the course 3-5 of years from issue, they have out-performed bullion.

[pandamonium]

I agree as the world wants the Yuan.   When the MCC market finally breaks out the premium for Chinese silver pandas should increase greatly.   It is the best of bullion.   What happens when Saudia Arabia announces oil will be sold in Yuan and not US dollars?   I want to own silver pandas not silver eagles or other bullion.......


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1411156860.php

[geoxxx]

I read somewhere that Iran is already selling in Yuan due to the US sanctions...

[pandamonium]

Many oil producers are selling w/ the Yuan.   I still think we have another year or two but who knows.   It is the trend and the Yuan is the future........