Topic: Long Beach auction results

[GDG's]

davidt3251 >>>I wonder if one of the causes for this malaise is NGC's stricter grading standards.<<<

I don't think so. If you follow collectors of American coins many do not think too much of CMC's. I for one have scaled purchases of CMC's big time. I'll keep what I want but do not wish to purchase anymore. I believe there are many numismatics that agree with me. JMHO

[GDG's]

>>>I believe there are many "NUMISMATISTS" that agree with me. <<<

I HATE bad grammer.

[davidt3251]

davidt3251 >>>I wonder if one of the causes for this malaise is NGC's stricter grading standards.<<<

I don't think so. If you follow collectors of American coins many do not think too much of CMC's. I for one have scaled purchases of CMC's big time. I'll keep what I want but do not wish to purchase anymore. I believe there are many numismatics that agree with me. JMHO

Look, I don't know your personal circumstances, everyones is different.

The US CMC market is a graded coin market. Buyers of OMP CMCs are suffering under NGCs more strict grading. Buyers have lost a lot of money on sheets where they are supposed to be 69-70, not 68 and 69. You buy them based on 69-70 and when you sell you book a loss.

I am not the only one. That practice is driving people away from the business, plain and simple.

If people are making money they are happier with their investment. Suddenly sellers want more for 69s and buyers won't pay up. The same coin is now graded 68 but sells at a discount because the instability of NGCs grading practices has driven out bidders in general. When the primary grading service goes from 84% grading 69 to 60%, that's an unreasonable 30% drop. (these statistics were posted on CCF recently). I don't think that's change instills confidence, I think a market that acts like it doesn't know what its doing will attract a lot of 'newbie' investors. Thanks NGC. /sarc

Its just like the stock market. The government and brokers play with the indexes, sure Google and Tesla do well, but stocks outside of the index door poorly. Its a thin market. Retail has disappeared.

[1668Chris]

The trend of tougher grading on mcc's is not a recent issue.   I noticed this happening about 18 months ago on my own submissions and quickly stopped buying omp in favor of graded 69's.  I may occasionally by omp but only related to rare coins and at a price that is equivalent to a 67.  All this does is make the 69s more valuable and lower supply of 69's over time.  While 69's may seem plentiful in this market I would not take this for granted several years from now as I believe supply will dry up and 68 will be the new norm.

[1668Chris]

This invariably leads to higher prices for 69 graded coins and lower prices for omp

[pandaccumulator]

davidt3251 >>>I wonder if one of the causes for this malaise is NGC's stricter grading standards.<<<

I don't think so. If you follow collectors of American coins many do not think too much of CMC's. I for one have scaled purchases of CMC's big time. I'll keep what I want but do not wish to purchase anymore. I believe there are many numismatics that agree with me. JMHO

I agree with you,GoldenDragonGirls, just like you, I have scaled back a lot on my purchases. I think the whole trend is still down, I follow prices in China(zhaoonline) closely, I try to pay 80% or less of going prices in China, this strategy has limited my loss over the past two years. Except for certain date fractional gold pandas, in general, if you get into this market(MCC) after late 2010, you are sitting on an average of 30-40% loss. On the positive side, I am glad I remain to be diversified and have done very well on modern US coins, such as gold proof buffaloes/burnished eagles etc.

[GDG's]

>>>On the positive side, I am glad I remain to be diversified and have done very well on modern US coins, such as gold proof buffaloes/burnished eagles etc. <<<

pandaaccumulator,

The gold buffalo are a great coin. The 2008 w MS have a nice low mintage(lower then proof) and still a great value. I love those coins.

[1668Chris]

Except for certain date fractional gold pandas, in general, if you get into this market(MCC) after late 2010, you are sitting on an average of 30-40% loss.

I would generally disagree with this statement.  Yes, many coins have seen drops of 50%, however if this were true all of the dealers would not be in business.  These price drops were generally on the past high fliers.  And while I admit I may have only a handful of coins in this situation, I have personally purchased many coins for my collection and investment in the post 2010 era and have seen gains of close to 100% in some cases.  While each individual case is different, I think it is important to perform your own due diligence and research.  YOu must have your own strategy and stick with it and not make impulse decisons. 

Here is a great example.  This coin could have been bought from a different dealer for $4500 last week (which was undervalued!!) and the bidding continues...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHINA-SILVER-35-YUAN-1979-YEAR-OF-CHILD-MATTE-PERFECT-CONDITION-SP-69-MATTE/331031281355?_trksid=p2050601.m2372&_trkparms=aid%3D111000%26algo%3DREC.CURRENT%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D17614%26meid%3D1652935996676670828%26pid%3D100085%26prg%3D8172%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D4%26sd%3D331031281355%26%26clkid%3D1652938083294483919&_qi=RTM1562569#ht_444wt_1451

[pandaccumulator]

I would generally disagree with this statement.  Yes, many coins have seen drops of 50%, however if this were true all of the dealers would not be in business.  These price drops were generally on the past high fliers.  And while I admit I may have only a handful of coins in this situation, I have personally purchased many coins for my collection and investment in the post 2010 era and have seen gains of close to 100% in some cases.  While each individual case is different, I think it is important to perform your own due diligence and research.  YOu must have your own strategy and stick with it and not make impulse decisons. 

Here is a great example.  This coin could have been bought from a different dealer for $4500 last week (which was undervalued!!) and the bidding continues...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHINA-SILVER-35-YUAN-1979-YEAR-OF-CHILD-MATTE-PERFECT-CONDITION-SP-69-MATTE/331031281355?_trksid=p2050601.m2372&_trkparms=aid%3D111000%26algo%3DREC.CURRENT%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D17614%26meid%3D1652935996676670828%26pid%3D100085%26prg%3D8172%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D4%26sd%3D331031281355%26%26clkid%3D1652938083294483919&_qi=RTM1562569#ht_444wt_1451

1668Chris, I have to say I disagree with you. I should have corrected myself: What I meant was if you get in this market as a collector( dealers or traders are not included) after late 2010, you are sitting on an average loss of 30-40%. If you are a dealer or active trader, you can still make profit, as long as you move thing in and out quickly enough. Dealers, esp smart ones who know the market dynamics well, should still make money regardless of market condition, and therefore, will never go out of business.

[pandamonium]

I am a fairly new small time collector (less than 3 yrs).  You are right, value of most of my MCC have dropped.  Thats OK.  Markets go up and down as have other investments in the past.  The MCC market still has tremendous potential.  Just gotta survive the low points to appreciate the future high life.   This small market could become a monster, so I am happy.....  :)     

[GDG's]

I am a fairly new small time collector (less than 3 yrs).  You are right, value of most of my MCC have dropped.  Thats OK.  Markets go up and down as have other investments in the past.  The MCC market still has tremendous potential.  Just gotta survive the low points to appreciate the future high life.   This small market could become a monster, so I am happy.....  :)     

Potential depends upon ones time frame. The trend is now down with CMC's no denying that. Buy what you like so you're not disappointed if prices fall in the short term. I believe prices will continue to decline. I do hope I'm wrong but all indications show downward prices. Also CMC's are controlled by so few dealers they try very hard keep prices artificially high as best they can. The chicanery that exists among dealers of CMC's does not help. Is it worse then American coins? You betcha it is. All you need do is follow this site to understand how often dealers try to cheat buyers. This is a HUGE red flag to anyone who is new to collecting CMC's. I cannot blame them. I am very happy with my collection to date. I am very unhappy with many dealers of late too. Making a profit is one thing, trying to cheat someone is another.

[PandaCollector]

I am very unhappy with many dealers of late too. Making a profit is one thing, trying to cheat someone is another.

Just for the sake of discussion can you expand on your cheating comment? I would definitely say that reneging on a deal is really bad. Obviously theft is too. As far as dealers are concerned, I know some who will pay the most they can for a coin and others who will pay the least. OTOH, I can't remember ever seeing a collector tell a dealer that a coin is priced too low. I have, however, seen a dealer do that for a colleague. I know dealers who worked for years to make good on their obligations and I know others who skipped town and left everyone else holding the bag. So I call some dealers friends and others not.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

[GDG's]

>>>Just for the sake of discussion can you expand on your cheating comment?<<<

>>> I know dealers who worked for years to make good on their obligations and I know others who skipped town and left everyone else holding the bag. So I call some dealers friends and others not<<<


Hi Peter,

The cheating comment I made is referencing the recent OMP/NonOMP discussed here in depth recently. This has burned many people who bought OMP expecting TRUE OMP and not coins that were resealed. This has happened to me personally. Sure I returned coins that were obviously subpar coins but it left me miffed that someone would do that even knowing I am a long time collector. I am fortunate to have dealt with many American dealers in graded coins who have been honest and great dealers.

Regarding dealers who have "skipped town" I had to laugh. They have been around a long time and not just CMC's. JT coins comes to mind re: CMC's. I actually never had a bad deal with that dealer (and had many) BUT am disgusted in what happened at the end of his coin selling "business" career.

>>>So I call some dealers friends and others not.<<<

Yes I do NOT want anyone to get the wrong idea. There are so many great dealers of CMC's out there. They are the ones who have blogs, discuss coins, and add their opinions right here. I could name many but don't want to seem like a shill for them. I think everyone here knows the honest dealers.

[pandamonium]

I would generally disagree with this statement.  Yes, many coins have seen drops of 50%, however if this were true all of the dealers would not be in business.  These price drops were generally on the past high fliers.  And while I admit I may have only a handful of coins in this situation, I have personally purchased many coins for my collection and investment in the post 2010 era and have seen gains of close to 100% in some cases.  While each individual case is different, I think it is important to perform your own due diligence and research.  YOu must have your own strategy and stick with it and not make impulse decisons. 

Here is a great example.  This coin could have been bought from a different dealer for $4500 last week (which was undervalued!!) and the bidding continues...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/CHINA-SILVER-35-YUAN-1979-YEAR-OF-CHILD-MATTE-PERFECT-CONDITION-SP-69-MATTE/331031281355?_trksid=p2050601.m2372&_trkparms=aid%3D111000%26algo%3DREC.CURRENT%26ao%3D1%26asc%3D17614%26meid%3D1652935996676670828%26pid%3D100085%26prg%3D8172%26rk%3D1%26rkt%3D4%26sd%3D331031281355%26%26clkid%3D1652938083294483919&_qi=RTM1562569#ht_444wt_1451

1668 Chris or any forum member, my question.   The 1979 Year of Child Matte silver has 1,000 mintage Mr. Ge.  NGC has graded 112 total, 93 are PF 69.   The 1982 Bank of China silver medal has 16,000 mintage.  NGC has graded 5 total, 1 is PF 68, 3 are 67 and one 64.  I have emailed several US and China seller and all say it is a very rare medal.  A PF 67 sold for about $500 then a OMP sold for close to $600.  The knock is the high planned mintage and it is a medal.  I have seen about 3 to 4 a yr on ebay.  Higher prices may encourage more to be graded.  Could the 82 Bank of China be more rare then the 79 Yr of Child Matte?  Could the Bank of China command the price the Yr of Child Matte is getting? 

[PandaOrLunar]

...The 1982 Bank of China silver medal has 16,000 mintage.  NGC has graded 5 total, 1 is PF 68, 3 are 67 and one 64...

Given the price, I would think the actual/surviving mintage is lower.