Author Topic: Long Beach auction results  (Read 9322 times)

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Offline bonke

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Long Beach auction results
« on: September 27, 2013, 01:31:05 PM »
On September 26, 2013, Heritage held an auction at the Long Beach coin show.  Items 24234-24353 were modern Chinese coins and medals.  I have just reviewed the auction results.  From my perspective as a collector, the prices (including bidder premiums) were very, very low and it was a perfect opportunity for a collector, investor or dealer to purchase these items.  I suggest you review the results.  If you find anything which is interesting, consider sharing it with the members of this coin forum.   

Offline davidt3251

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Offline bonke

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2013, 03:15:24 PM »
David

Are you saying the collapsing velocity of money caused item #24254, 1985 China 1oz gold panda, NGC MS68, to sell for less than spot (including the buyer's premium)?  What about all of the coin forum members who collect and invest in gold pandas?  Were they unwilling to pay spot or above for this reason or some other reason?

Personally, I am more interested in the auction results than the reasons for the auction results.  I know our economy has been "troubled" for many years.  Check out the results of the auction.  Very interesting.   

Mark Bonke

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #3 on: September 27, 2013, 03:39:22 PM »
Hi Mark,

The previous Hong Kong conference had poor results and yes, I think it is at least partly caused by the velocity of money. Why didn't more collectors bid? Well, we're in an economic downturn, and it has affected Chinese coins somewhat.

This was a solid $2500 medal. We know Chinese dont like medals:
China San Francisco International Coin Expo gold Panda (1 ounce) PF69UC $1586
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24321

Thats more a reflection of the state of the US economy.

And this 1990 1oz Gold LD in MS69 at $1938 netted the seller $1598
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24274

Thats more a reflection of the malaise in our coin market caused by the low velocity of money.

I think its pretty obvious by now that deflation is affecting our market at present. Many are begging for inflation at this point. Who knows, maybe Yellen will save us for a few months.

-David





Offline Birdman

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #4 on: September 27, 2013, 03:56:54 PM »
On September 26, 2013, Heritage held an auction at the Long Beach coin show.  Items 24234-24353 were modern Chinese coins and medals.  I have just reviewed the auction results.  From my perspective as a collector, the prices (including bidder premiums) were very, very low and it was a perfect opportunity for a collector, investor or dealer to purchase these items.  I suggest you review the results.  If you find anything which is interesting, consider sharing it with the members of this coin forum.    

Sometimes when you don't see lively bidding, it is because there isn't all that much to get excited about in the auction.  If you were interested in conventional gold pandas (1/20th - one ounce), there weren't that many better dates or better denominations in the auction.  Also there didn't seem to be a lot of high grade material (more 67s and 68s than usual?  Were there any MS70s?).  Nothing really caught my eye, so I didn't place a single bid on the Modern Chinese material (I bid on some other items).  Regarding the issue of why people didn't scoop up some of the coins near spot price, a question might be, is that the best way to employ limited funds right now?  Tying up several thousand dollars on M67 and MS68 of average dates means you don't have that money available to channel into better material that becomes available...Also, I'm on the Eastern US, so the actual auction occured too late for me.  If I had been watching the auction, I might have jumped in with a low bid on a few things, but if I'm not excited about the coin I'm not going to set a proxy bid in advance.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #5 on: September 27, 2013, 07:27:31 PM »
i agree with birdman. i looked at the catalogue for the auction with another forum member, a major dealer, and we agreed that there was nothing exciting in the auction. way too many 68s and lower. i saw far more exciting coins at the SCOINS auction a few months ago and even bid on some. i believe some stuff got auctioned around spot because there was just not much attention paid to a less-than-exciting auction.

Offline comeaux

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2013, 07:51:54 PM »
This was a solid $2500 medal. We know Chinese dont like medals:
China San Francisco International Coin Expo gold Panda (1 ounce) PF69UC $1586
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24321

Wow I wish I would have looked at the auction ... would have loved to get this coin for even $2,000, someone got a steal !

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2013, 08:01:15 PM »
I thought there were a few items that were interesting and I wish I was more aggressive on the lunars.

The Platinum 1989 Snake was cheap. $3290 incl. BP.
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24331

The Dragon and Phoenix Set from 1990 sold for a pretty good price, $10,575. Thats higher than recent sales.
Dragon & Phoenix Gold and Silver Proof Set 1990

The 1994 1oz Dog sold below where I thought it would considering the quality. $3965
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24336

I just don't know why people look for reasons why this particular auction was weak when the past few auctions have been weak. This slowdown has been going on for months, and it just looks like its a function of decreased liquidity to me.




Offline sasushi

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2013, 10:20:13 PM »
I thought there were a few items that were interesting and I wish I was more aggressive on the lunars.

The Platinum 1989 Snake was cheap. $3290 incl. BP.
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24331

The Dragon and Phoenix Set from 1990 sold for a pretty good price, $10,575. Thats higher than recent sales.
Dragon & Phoenix Gold and Silver Proof Set 1990

The 1994 1oz Dog sold below where I thought it would considering the quality. $3965
http://coins.ha.com/c/item.zx?saleNo=3026&lotNo=24336

I just don't know why people look for reasons why this particular auction was weak when the past few auctions have been weak. This slowdown has been going on for months, and it just looks like its a function of decreased liquidity to me.




The platinum snake has the same "spots" as  the silver one, which I once sent to ngc and it got a 69. What kind of spots are they? What grade would the platinum one get?

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #9 on: September 28, 2013, 01:20:15 AM »
For me, the auction offering was uninspiring to the point where I could not find one coin worth bidding on.   Also, omp coins have been taking a beating every week on zhao online.  These results are in line with what I am seeing.  Furthermore with grading getting tougher why take the risk of omp without seeing the coin in hand.  I would much rather pay up for a 69 than take a chance.

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #10 on: September 28, 2013, 02:09:16 AM »
I have no idea what grade the Platinum Snake would get, especially since NGC is all over the place with their standards.
I wasn't planning on grading it. I don't grade all my coins.

Also, I notice Xuhong has started running auctions. Am I mistaken or is this a first?
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2013-1oz-10-Yuan-China-Silver-ASEAN-Expo-Panda-Coin-with-COA-Original-Box-/271286951994?pt=US_World_Coins&hash=item3f29f6603a

Offline comeaux

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #11 on: September 28, 2013, 04:26:16 AM »
Also, omp coins have been taking a beating every week on zhao online.  These results are in line with what I am seeing.  Furthermore with grading getting tougher why take the risk of omp without seeing the coin in hand.  I would much rather pay up for a 69 than take a chance.

:thumbup:

Offline Birdman

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #12 on: September 28, 2013, 09:02:47 AM »
Also, omp coins have been taking a beating every week on zhao online.  These results are in line with what I am seeing.

Can you share more about what you've observed?  On zhao online, does this apply for all OMP, even those that are clearly authentic OMP and those that have large, detailed photos?  I wonder how the premium differences for OMP vs 67, 68, 69 have changed (if at all) compared to a year or two ago?  If there has been a change, I wonder if the premium over spot price for OMP has decreased, or whether the premium for MS69 has just increased more than OMP (or both)?...Thanks, I don't get a chance to follow zhao online frequently...

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #13 on: September 28, 2013, 11:31:20 AM »
I always check every Monday and then once or twice during the week.   I will find some examples and post links.  There is definitely a large divergence btw omp and 69.  Generally it appears that omp has been moving closer to spot but there is still a premium over spot.  Every coin is different but at the macro level more value is being placed on 68 + coins

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Long Beach auction results
« Reply #14 on: September 28, 2013, 12:27:11 PM »
I always check every Monday and then once or twice during the week.   I will find some examples and post links.  There is definitely a large divergence btw omp and 69.  Generally it appears that omp has been moving closer to spot but there is still a premium over spot.  Every coin is different but at the macro level more value is being placed on 68 + coins

I wonder if one of the causes for this malaise is NGC's stricter grading standards.

NGC may have decided on stricter grading because in general the remaining ungraded coins in the market are lower quality.

But a lot of collector-dealers like myself have product thats still in sheets, and the sheets graded say 2-3 years ago of the same coin got few 68s, mostly 69s and about one 70 a sheet. Now its mainly 68s and 69s, almost 50-50, for the one particular coin I am thinking of. These are silver Pandas and they dont have spots or degradation.

So I think its a case also of the tail wagging the dog. Submitters dont want low grades so they are holding back good coins. Sellers are selecting poorer quality coins to sell. Some people are holding off on submissions to see if prices rise again. This restricts supply of good product. Some collectors I know have gotten turned off and have left the market or gone dormant.

So perhaps NGC thinks they are responding to the market, but they are also influencing the market.