Author Topic: Selling: One Week CCF Member 15%-off sale, 15% off everything in my ebay store  (Read 5803 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline BChung

  • Trade Count: (+3)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 673
  • Karma: 17
The 96/97 prices are kind of distorted by the fact that HK was returning to China and ppl were hoarding them in HK like there is no tmr for many reasons, mostly due to the fear of returning during that time also during those time the Asian financial bubble was at its peak and HK is at the center of it. So IMO the 2000 RMB price is distorted and the RMB have appreciated more than 30% against HKD. If I am correct the same could be said for 1oz Silver Pandas for 1996 and 1997.

Just an opinion.

Offline heartsme

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Karma: 0
  • Gender: Male
  • stay foolish, stay hungry.
The 96/97 prices are kind of distorted by the fact that HK was returning to China and ppl were hoarding them in HK like there is no tmr for many reasons, mostly due to the fear of returning during that time also during those time the Asian financial bubble was at its peak and HK is at the center of it. So IMO the 2000 RMB price is distorted and the RMB have appreciated more than 30% against HKD. If I am correct the same could be said for 1oz Silver Pandas for 1996 and 1997.

Just an opinion.
96/97 PANDA are doomed, their prices went crazy during 98 like high-tech stock in 2000, and NO BODY is willing to buy them with normal price any more. While I have no idea of the difference between collection and speculation, I won't touch doomed things. Many senior Chinese coin dealer know that crazy year.

Offline heartsme

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Karma: 0
  • Gender: Male
  • stay foolish, stay hungry.
The 96/97 prices are kind of distorted by the fact that HK was returning to China and ppl were hoarding them in HK like there is no tmr for many reasons, mostly due to the fear of returning during that time also during those time the Asian financial bubble was at its peak and HK is at the center of it. So IMO the 2000 RMB price is distorted and the RMB have appreciated more than 30% against HKD. If I am correct the same could be said for 1oz Silver Pandas for 1996 and 1997.

Just an opinion.
Their price reached 1000 RMB that year.

Offline exchange

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
  • Karma: 20
96/97 PANDA are doomed,  I won't touch doomed things.

That seems such extreme. There's nothing doomed about paying $50 for a half ounce silver panda.


exchange

Offline heartsme

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Karma: 0
  • Gender: Male
  • stay foolish, stay hungry.
That seems such extreme. There's nothing doomed about paying $50 for a half ounce silver panda.


exchange

It is a common behavior of chinese coin dealers in china of not touching many 96/97 coins, they can earn money safely with other coins, that is why 96/97 price is always low, perhaps after most of those guys experienced 97 frenzy die, their prices would return to normal.
Abnormal or unbalance is obvious, however how long does it take for the market to get rational is the biggest problem. That is what I learn from stock market and coin market. How to price speculated thing itself is the hardest thing in the world. That's why george soros is so famous because 99.999% people fail in this.


Offline NBM

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 732
  • Karma: 31
It is a common behavior of chinese coin dealers in china of not touching many 96/97 coins, they can earn money safely with other coins, that is why 96/97 price is always low, perhaps after most of those guys experienced 97 frenzy die, their prices would return to normal.
Abnormal or unbalance is obvious, however how long does it take for the market to get rational is the biggest problem. That is what I learn from stock market and coin market. How to price speculated thing itself is the hardest thing in the world. That's why george soros is so famous because 99.999% people fail in this.
Another confirmation of my earlier concerns. China 1997, "magical & heavy loss"?

With this in mind could these "tainted" years be more subject to being melted or are dealers still sitting on large inventories of coins?

Offline exchange

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1178
  • Karma: 20
That is why 96/97 price is always low, perhaps after most of those guys experienced 97 frenzy die, their prices would return to normal.


Normal to me is $50 and that is because I wasn't in the market back then I guess. However, it seems to me these particular coins the 96 and 97 are some of the exceptions as I'm figuring at least 95% of all CMC have exponentially increased since.
So... we guessed wrong on those two dates, but how many did we guess right. You will always find a few bad apples amongst several hundreds and these bad apples I don't mind owning either.


exchange

Offline heartsme

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 66
  • Karma: 0
  • Gender: Male
  • stay foolish, stay hungry.
Another confirmation of my earlier concerns. China 1997, "magical & heavy loss"?

With this in mind could these "tainted" years be more subject to being melted or are dealers still sitting on large inventories of coins?
I don't think they were melted because anyway dealer can at least sell them a bit higher than the spot in china in any time...They are just in inventory, I just notice jibi.net has a panel of 12 pieces 96 OMP panda on sale now...

Offline Pandagongzi

  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 126
  • Karma: 1
Did you remove your 1998 1/2 from eBay?  Based on new info,  how much does it worth now?
Based off of mintage estimates the 98 should be more valuable.  However, I believe the reason for the price discrepancy in MS 69 is the 98's grade better.  290/473 are 69 or 70's for the 98's (or 61%) vs. only 140/401 (or 35%) for the SD 95's based off of NGC's population reports.
David,  which variety do you have?  Thin or thick branch?  If you have both,  what's the ratio?