Author Topic: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices  (Read 7884 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« on: May 06, 2013, 04:29:37 AM »
I have tracked Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Pricing since mid-2007.  I update prices semiannually on January 1 and July 1.  The prices are based on what I have realized or expect to realize near January 1 and July 1 of each year, the prices may not reflect eBay, auctions, pricepedia or other price guide prices at the time, since my prices are based on actual private sale transactions.  Finally, I always use the price of the common variety of a given year, since only a handful of investors knew about differences in rarity among the varieties back then or even now.  

In July of 2007, one could invest $100,000 in one of four investments:
1) 145 oz of gold bullion priced at 5% above melt
2) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1984-1993 and 2001-2006, with 4.5 sets purchased for each of the years - Common Dates
3) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1983, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, with 10.5 sets purchased for each of the years - Semi-Key Dates
4) Gold Panda sets in NGC MS69 from 1982, 1995, 1998, with 12 sets purchased for each of the years - Key Dates

Regardless of which category of gold pandas you invested in, one substantially outperformed gold with less monthly volatility (risk).  

Arif

Offline mook

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2013, 08:35:47 AM »
Thank you very much, very interesting

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2013, 08:38:23 AM »
I agree that rare coins will gain over bullion.  In the long run, wouldn't the key date gold pandas outperform the others?.........

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2013, 09:53:49 AM »
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
1.  Summer of the 2011 is the peak activity and your chart definitely shows it, but how to interpretate the decline of the key date panda?  Is because of the transition of affluent Western collectors to the newbie Chinese collectors?  Does that mean key date panda are a bargain right now?  What's the parallel to the US coin market?
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out?  did it created a definitive buying pressure?  Projection about his 2nd edition?
3.  The last data point is impressive, but early, this being the beginning of the May 2013.  Is that extrapolated value?

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2013, 10:31:12 AM »
this is fascinating, thank you for sharing it--

Offline dobedo

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2013, 11:21:25 AM »
Thanks for sharing. Fascinating indeed. Much analysis can now be done based on this data and built from this, e.g., for non-Panda gold, silver Panda, medals. The possibilities are endless.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2013, 12:56:37 PM »
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out? 

The end of May 2010.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

Offline Pandapaule

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2013, 01:34:16 PM »
Very very interesting graphic.
Thanks

Sandac
I am sure, a good time still is for purchases now.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2013, 01:47:28 PM »
Thanks, Arif.  This is interesting on multiple levels.  If only this were a database that we could all play around with, manipulating different variables to understand different relationships.

For the graph, you use the value of the date sets (whether common dates, semi-key dates, key dates).  It would be interesting to see a plot of the change in value of the "key denomination" (usually the 1/2 or the 1/4) of the each type (common dates, semi-key dates, key dates).  Thus, instead of investing $100,000 in common date sets or semi-key date sets, what if one invested $100,000 in just the key denominations of each date set.  To take one extreme example, let's say someone piled everything in 1997 G1/2s instead of full 1997 date sets.  The return would be much greater for the 1997 G1/2 (oh, regarding disclosure, I WISH I had piled a lot of money into 97 G1/2, but I did not.  I only have one).  The flip side is, I guess it is not always obvious what the key denomination will be.  If someone piled all their money in the 2002 G1/2, they would have missed out on the upward explosion of the price of the 2002 G1/10, so the date set may have been the better play for 2002.

The goal of playing around with all of these variables would be to try to inform our investment strategy going forward to get the most bang for our limited bucks.  There are several levels to this question (1) do we invest in common dates, semi-key, or key; (2) do we invest in date sets or focus on what we think is the key denomination, or (3) do we focus on what we think are the key varieties.  Each investor's decision is based on some of these variables, combined with what happens to be available on the market place when they are ready to buy.

Birdman

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2013, 04:54:40 PM »
Good points.

And buyers decisions would be influenced on the differences in outlook between Investors vs Collectors.
An investor might want to buy, for example, all scarcer 1/2  oz sizes in order to try to maximize return, whereas a collector might want a complete set regardless if some sizes are relative underperformers.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Pandora

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #10 on: May 06, 2013, 05:00:58 PM »
Thanks Arif, this is very illuminating.

I would like to draw a parallel...in your graph, the semi-key-dates sets won over key-date sets for investment purpose. Same way, investing an amount in 69 coins might win over investing same amount in fewer 70 coins for investment purpose.

Offline mazinger7000

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #11 on: May 06, 2013, 05:56:57 PM »
interested to hear everyone's theories as to why the key date coins dropped in value there for about 1 1/2 years. is it because the hype inflated their prices for awhile, a general overall lull in the market, or some other reason?

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #12 on: May 06, 2013, 06:17:48 PM »
Personally, I see the number of so-called 'keys' and semi-keys' in the NGC census, and compare to other non-key years, and find other non-key or non-semi-key have less coins graded. Maybe there are dates that should be 'key' that arent? The strategy would be to buy the cheaper 'should-be-keys' and wait.

NGC census doesnt track the mintage numbers out of China very well, and it only seems to partly track Peter Anthony's numbers.

I think that its possible that the keys and semi keys were varieties marketed first by dealers who only selected the varieties from years with low published mintages (thus higher profit potential). But as time has gone on (maybe because non-keys had lower numismatic premiums they got melted more and warehoused/graded less, and surviving populations dropped), non-key years became closer to semi-key or key.


Offline Hippanda

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #13 on: May 06, 2013, 06:37:48 PM »
Maybe there are dates that should be 'key' that arent? The strategy would be to buy the cheaper 'should-be-keys' and wait.


That strategy would have worked very well with, for example, the gold 1997 1/2 oz-
it has enjoyed a fantastic run up recently, doubling in price, after previously having an available supply and relatively lagging price...until now.

There are other coins that seem to make sense in the same way-
undervalued and not yet appreciated.  Pick and choose and place your bets...
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Gold Panda NGC MS69 Set Historical Prices
« Reply #14 on: May 06, 2013, 09:54:47 PM »
Such an interesting chart and I have many questions and little time today...a quick few:
1.  Summer of the 2011 is the peak activity and your chart definitely shows it, but how to interpretate the decline of the key date panda?  Is because of the transition of affluent Western collectors to the newbie Chinese collectors?  Does that mean key date panda are a bargain right now?  What's the parallel to the US coin market?
2.  When did Peter Anthony's book came out?  did it created a definitive buying pressure?  Projection about his 2nd edition?
3.  The last data point is impressive, but early, this being the beginning of the May 2013.  Is that extrapolated value?

1. Summer of 2011 was extremely an bullish time for high end coins and many of them spiked as gold hit $1900.    While the chart doesn't show 1998 LD or 2000 mirror data, those sets went from $4000 in early 2010 to $40,000 in summer of 2011, only to retrace down to $20,000 today.  The peak created that summer was clearly an overshoot due to few aggressive buyers of 1982 and 1998 gold panda sets and many newbies entering the market and chasing whatever was hot.  As the mania subsided and prices began to fall the newbies and those that bought on credit slowly sold their high end sets and prices slowly came down. 

2. Peter book came out in May of 2010, which helped bring interest to many panda coins in an already bullish market for Chinese coins.  From September 2009 to May 2010 many cultural coins were up 100-300% and panda were up 20-40% during this time, after the book release panda started to climb even faster.

3. The last point is Today, May 5, the graph labels are semiannually so it shows July 2013, but notice the last data point is slightly to the left of data label axis mark.

Arif