Author Topic: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!  (Read 111829 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #240 on: April 30, 2018, 11:25:56 AM »
When pandamonium finally gives up on the gold price, it will be time for gold's meteoric rise :)

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #241 on: May 01, 2018, 02:50:30 AM »
When pandamonium finally gives up on the gold price, it will be time for gold's meteoric rise :)

I'm not sure I have enough years left for that LOL.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia — Chinese Coin Prices and More
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #242 on: May 01, 2018, 07:09:23 AM »
I disagree.    In our crazy world today the catalysts to propel gold up is possible.      When Russia says they will attack the West and shuts off all communication, this is not good as Russia has superior weapons now.     I hope everyone in Syria will back off.   Debt, derivatives, etc.. and many other issues can also propel gold up.      To ignore these serious issues is silly......

Offline bonke

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #243 on: May 01, 2018, 08:29:44 AM »
Assuming "bad times" are coming in the near future, do whatever it is you want to do.  Complete important projects.  Take time with your family.  Travel.  Laugh.  Smile at strangers.  Whatever is important to you.  If you are wrong and "bad times" are not coming, you will have accomplished much of what you should have been doing anyway.  If the worst does occur, you may not survive it long enough to really worry about paying for the necessities of life.

Words from a person of advanced age (who thinks of Peter Anthony as a nice younger person).

Mark Bonke

Offline r3globe

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #244 on: May 01, 2018, 01:45:03 PM »
When pandamonium finally gives up on the gold price, it will be time for gold's meteoric rise :)

lol lol lol lol ...i have been wanting to say that but i restrained. i love Pandamonium being part of this forum though. We need ying and yang for balance.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #245 on: May 01, 2018, 06:27:27 PM »
True, true. Glad my words did not seriously offend.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #246 on: May 02, 2018, 08:17:15 AM »
I read a lot due to our screwed up world today.    Another good source of information is our military.    Not all military understand but there are those that do and some will give out information.     Again, i grew up a military brat so i pay attention to how they see our world.    I am a product of the Korean war and have many sad memories of collateral damage that happens during war.      Basically the message is peace times are coming to a end.      Also, military for the most part, do not like civilians.     Civilians are considered squid.    No backbone, they do not defend themselves or fight for what is right.    I fight.... 
Due to stupid comments on this forum many do not post.     Top collectors here, that are members, do not post due to stupid comments.    They know the market, why should they argue on line?      For me, i need to prepare for a unbalanced world, do what you think is right......

Offline bonke

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #247 on: May 02, 2018, 10:28:24 AM »
Ouch!  An arrow through my heart!   

Mark Bonke

Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #248 on: May 02, 2018, 11:52:07 AM »
Pandamonium is correct, if you believe we are headed for war, gold will spike.  People in worn torn areas need gold as a hedge as all other assets are at risk of devaluation or seizure.  The military trains hard each day and they are itching to use their skills and equipment on the battlefield. 

I am looking forward to changing my ebay name to au5000, despite having a zero bullion position today, but you can bet when gold starts climbing out of its current trading range above $1550 and $2000, I will be in there buying aggressively. I don't mind missing the first $250 or $700, because I know if it breaks $2000 there is $2000-$3000 in easy money to capture.  I will let others do the heavy lifting to get us to $1550.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #249 on: May 02, 2018, 12:25:09 PM »
Pandamonium is correct, if you believe we are headed for war, gold will spike.  People in worn torn areas need gold as a hedge as all other assets are at risk of devaluation or seizure.  The military trains hard each day and they are itching to use their skills and equipment on the battlefield. 

I am looking forward to changing my ebay name to au5000, despite having a zero bullion position today, but you can bet when gold starts climbing out of its current trading range above $1550 and $2000, I will be in there buying aggressively. I don't mind missing the first $250 or $700, because I know if it breaks $2000 there is $2000-$3000 in easy money to capture.  I will let others do the heavy lifting to get us to $1550.
It is all about timing. I do not think anybody here does not believe in gold going to $5000+. A couple of years ago you hyped 1/2 oz gold pandas and you made it sound like they will never come down. I see you today selling them. Nobody seems to want the rare stuff even at a huge discount. It is all about timing.

Online KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #250 on: May 02, 2018, 10:58:16 PM »
The only reason I am selling 1/2 is that is all I own now and that is all I buy these days, everything else is a quick flip.  I sold all my 1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1 over the last few years as they are too common to own if master sets are the primary demand driver for price appreciation.  Lower prices are welcomed as it allows me to cost average down and balance out inventory for years that I am short on.  If master set demand never comes back, I will take a hit 10-30%, if it comes back expect to make 20-100%, I like those risk/reward odds. 

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #251 on: May 03, 2018, 01:25:57 AM »
Basically the message is peace times are coming to a end.   

Not according to Charles Nenner. I'm sure you've heard of him. He says that the war super cycle is coming to a close. See his recent USA Watchdog interview with Greg Hunter (who I cannot stand).

Offline bonke

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #252 on: May 03, 2018, 08:31:42 AM »
Arif

Will a retail demand develop in China? 

Collectors and investors are able to buy gold pandas from the Bank of China, coin dealers in well-established coin markets, internet dealers, auction houses, etc.  Still, with all of these opportunities to buy, the market remains weak and prices remain lower than one would imagine.

What is your long-term view of the market for gold pandas in the PRC?  Is there really only an opportunity to make money with a few key date half ounce gold pandas or will there be other opportunities?

Mark Bonke 

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #253 on: May 03, 2018, 10:13:13 AM »
I see several headwinds for modern coins, but I also believe momentum can shift at a moments notice and when that happens there will be no coins to buy, because they are already in China or held by very strong hands, which will cause a spike in prices. 

1) Tarif discussions, most businesses still are unclear when and what will be tarif be once implemented.  This has caused a lot of uncertainty for many industries, the first wave of protectionism is just that, the 1st inning, what will come next. 

2) Healthy stock and real estate markets.  If all your friends are making money in these sectors you are missing out by being in coins.  If these market corrects, coin market should do well, similar to 1987 when all collectibles spiked, it was that spike that is responsible for me being here today. 

3) Internet 3.0, decentralized computing and data being monetized by the user.  This is very exciting and money is flowing into this sector like it is 1996, which is hurting bullion and even jewelry sales.  The banks are mainly selling bullion and mintage numbers are so high that if you get everyone stuck with bullion they have no money left to buy rare stuff.  But eventually, those bullion owners will see the opportunity to own rarer coins and that is when key dates will spike. 

4) Master set orders are down to nonexistent, this has hurt the market the most, when set orders return, prices will spike. 

5) Technical analysis, Chinese buyers tend to be either long term holders forever or traders, with prices flat to down, the trader group has moved on, this happened in 2012-2013 and prices slowly declined, then master set demand came and these traders came back.  Same thing will happen again and again, once demand and price momentum comes back these technical traders come back.

6) Dealers are stuck in inventory at levels that make it unprofitable to sell at current levels, this means they price coins higher than current market and buyers lose interest and invest elsewhere. 

7) Gold is in sideways trading range for many years now, it is like watching grass grow and then being cut by the mower, grow again, cut again...  Many are bored and have moved on.   

8) The greatest gift or curse to modern chinese coin market was goldsheets that came out last April.  This publication was given to all the US dealers that subscribed to greysheets (which is like everyone that owns a store in the US or sets up at major shows, plus many collectors masquerading as dealers/investors).  What this did was bring a lot of supply onto the market in April-May, I bought more coins during those months than prior year combined.  Several other dealers that typically don't buy modern chinese also started buying with visions of setting up in Hong Kong and becoming a world dealer.  To help offset my purchase I sold every non 1/2oz I could muster into the strength of these new buyers that were willing to pay a nice premium to wholesale market and do large transactions.  I ended up selling not only to offset new purchases, but an additional 50% of my inventory in May-June because market wanted coins and I didn't mind selling coins that are replaceable, like 1oz, 1/4, 1/10, 1/20 and bullion sets.  Months later after August HK show all these new buyers realized the market wasn't as great as they thought it could be and many find themselves in position 6) now.  Today many of those new buyers are in hiding, not a single one of them was buying at the central states show last week, but many of the old time buyers were buying, which is great to see that there still is enthusiasm for coins if priced near market level. 

9) The curse of goldsheet is many dealers are now choosing to sell directly to the public via ebay or other sites rather than selling in the wholesale market, because the spread between omp and MS69 in goldsheet is very large, which leads non-specialize dealers to blindly grade and sell on their own.  The problem with this is they sell via auctions during a time when prices are weak, which posts weaker prices and causes a downward spiral for some coins.  This great for retail buyers, but bad for the market, because 1-2 transactions can give the perception the market is very weak.  Many years ago I would actually buy on ebay to protect the market, but now I actually prefer not to buy and let a low auction price occur, because I can use it to buy at the wholesale level to average down. 

I am long term bullish on the market and short term bearish until master set demand or gold bullion takes off.  The key is own what you like and get rid of everything else, that way you don't worry about these blimps on the road.  China is 1.4 billion people and counting, I don't lose any sleep worrying about who will own my coins next. 

Offline collectingcoins

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Re: Why Gold will be flat or GO DOWN!!!!!
« Reply #254 on: May 03, 2018, 10:48:13 AM »
Although I've been busy tending family, I have been buying gold. Based on what I'm reading here, it looks like these will be a long-term hold, since the price will be based on the spot price. I'm in no rush. I have about 30 or so years before I sell. Unfortunately some have red spots. Will these come off with NCS conservation?