Author Topic: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy  (Read 4986 times)

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Offline Birdman

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Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« on: November 09, 2012, 07:54:38 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/business/global/heavy-lending-creates-a-surge-in-chinese-economy.html?hp&_r=0

Today's NY Times article on recent data.  Low inflation and higher growth for China going forward in the near term.  I wonder what the perspectives from other sources are?

Offline exchange

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2012, 09:21:20 AM »
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/business/global/heavy-lending-creates-a-surge-in-chinese-economy.html?hp&_r=0

Today's NY Times article on recent data.  Low inflation and higher growth for China going forward in the near term.  I wonder what the perspectives from other sources are?

I was going to start a new thread regarding China but just could not come up with a title. This fits perfectly.

Tsinghua EMBA program ranked No 4 in the world
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-10/17/content_15825611.htm

and

Apple to open sixth China store in Beijing
(Apple must know something!)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-10/18/content_15826384.htm


exchange


Offline Birdman

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2012, 09:30:01 AM »
Although 6 months old, this Al Jazeera news program offers some interesting insights into aspects of the China economy and the wealthy class that likely dabbles in gold and silver China coins.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/101east/2012/04/20124315114483530.html

My eyes are further opened to how much money some Chinese have.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2012, 12:04:32 PM »
This chart is just updated with Sept 2012 number.  China is the biggest gold producer (about 355 ton/year in 2011).  Prior to 2008 or so, China ran a net export of gold.  Export completely stopped since and China is net importing gold at an accelerated rate.  Just the first 9 months of this year, China imported 582 tons, at this rate it will be 777 tons for year 2012.  That’s greater than the entire gold reserve of Japan, the 9th largest gold holding.  China did it in one year, and that’s just from Hong Kong alone.  Furthurmore, Oct and Nov are hot months, so the total is likely more than 777 tons.  China last declared its gold reserve as 1054 tons in 2009.  It is probably bigger now.  Our gold reserve is 8133 tons.  I think China will overtake us fairly soon.  Chinese is not allowed to own gold before 2003, so the country is like a dry sponge soaking up gold rapid.  Even with 1054 tons of gold, that's only 1.8% of China's reserve.  That's just crazy, even our “buddies” in Europe have most of their reserve in gold (Germany 74%, Italy 73%, France 73%).  By any standard China should increase her gold reserve ratio.  There will be talks about China going to gold standard, taking over world reserve status, financial war with the West, etc.  Maybe, maybe not, but 1.8% reserve in gold in this troublesome financial environment is just plain stupid.  

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2012, 12:14:29 PM »
PandaCollector just came out with his Nov Pricepedia.  The article on "Is This Time Different?" is a great read.  There is a shocking tidbit about Chinese government raided the Shanghai coin market in 1998 and confiscated all coins there.  I want to hear more about that when PandaCollector has some free time.  Even though the coins were eventually returned, that had to hurt the market in a fundamental way, I mean we still whining about Executive Order 6102 and how it has a chilling effect on gold ownership, and that's 80 years ago.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #5 on: November 15, 2012, 08:52:30 AM »
"A fifth of Chinese to be 'affluent' by 2020 report"

http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-11/15/content_15929674.htm

Offline Birdman

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2012, 09:02:42 AM »
"Inflation China's key long-term risk: central bank chief"

Reuters.  November 17, 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/17/us-china-economy-inflation-idUSBRE8AG04P20121117

Offline Birdman

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2012, 06:19:39 PM »
Network's Ad Haul Bodes Well for China's Economy

Wall Street Journal.  November 18, 2012

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323353204578127010947847112.html

By LAURIE BURKITT
BEIJING—Companies looking to advertise on China's biggest television network committed 15.9 billion yuan ($2.55 billion) to run ads in 2013, up 11% from a year earlier, signaling confidence in China's economy from marketers and increased competition for China's 1.3 billion consumers.

The increase in state-run CCTV's total ad sales from an annual auction held Sunday night compares with a 13% increase for air time in 2012 from 2011, showing only a slight weakening in the ad-growth rate despite China's slowing economy. CCTV's advertising auction is typically considered one barometer for China's domestic economy.

CCTV's haul at the auction may have also benefited from moves by Chinese media regulators to crack down on programming by competitors and to keep commercials from interrupting TV dramas.

The increase was higher than expected, as most industry insiders projected an 8% to 10% rise, factoring in recent economic softening, said Zhou Wei, chief financial officer of Beijing-based ad agency Charm Communications Inc. CHRM +12.14%Business confidence appears strong with financial companies, alcohol producers and other corporations placing high bids, said Mr. Zhou, adding that Chinese liquor makers—known as white-spirits companies for the drink they make—were among the highest bidders in market share.

The rise signals that companies expect that Chinese consumers will pull out their wallets and propel sales growth. Chinese leaders are also expected in the next year to implement new policies encouraging more consumer spending to help rebalance Beijing's traditional reliance on government spending and big-ticket infrastructure projects for economic growth.

China's economy has slowed this year, with third-quarter growth coming in at the slowest pace since the global financial crisis four years ago. But economic indicators over the past two months have suggested the pace is quickening. Retail sales in October rose 14.5% year over year, compared with 14.2% in September.

A weakening economy throughout the year didn't affect TV exposure for companies throughout 2012, according to a spokeswoman from WPP WPPGY +0.99%PLC's ad-buying unit, GroupM.

This year's largest bidder was white-spirits maker JNC Group Co., which committed more than 600 million yuan for advertising on CCTV, surpassing last year's high of 498 million yuan from white-spirits rival Kweichow Moutai Co. 600519.SH -1.25%
Gome Electrical Appliances Holding Ltd., 0493.HK 0.00%one of China's largest home-appliance retailers, pledged 215 million yuan for one of the most valuable time slots during the year, a 10-second chunk of time before the evening news in January and February—a peak season for viewers who are watching special Chinese New Year programming.

Industry insiders also say that ad pricing has increased in the last year after state TV regulators in January eliminated more than two-thirds of prime-time entertainment programs, such as dating and reality shows, on satellite stations that compete with CCTV, targeting what they called "excessive entertainment and a trend toward low taste." Also, regulators last year issued new rules restricting commercials from interrupting TV dramas, shrinking the time available to marketers.

TV dramas and entertainment programs tend to have the highest ratings on Chinese television, according to GroupM.

Foreign companies, such as Procter & Gamble Co., PG +0.75%have been pulling back their pledges from CCTV and have boosted spending online. The network late Sunday didn't yet release data on commitment from foreign companies, but few were active in Sunday's auction, said Mr. Zhou.
« Last Edit: November 18, 2012, 06:22:41 PM by Birdman »

Offline Birdman

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2013, 09:19:04 AM »
Although not directly related to coins, this article on strong demand for high end fur products is further evidence that there is a significant population in China that is doing well and looking to buy.

"Furs Fly as Chinese Consumers Drive Boom in U.S. Mink Farming."   April 14, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/04/14/business/14reuters-usa-china-mink-boom.html?smid=pl-share

I suspect some of the same individuals who are "clamoring for fuzzy-trimmed backpacks, ermine-edged coats and mink-covered office supplies" are also buying some of the gold panda sets that seem to have been hot sellers in China over the past several months (Actually, I have no evidence that they are hot sellers, but someone in China is definitely buying the coins to make the sets.  Does anyone actually know whether consumers are lining up to buy these sets?).  How long will it last is the key question, but it has been interesting to watch the offer price steadily march higher on this forum for coins like the 1997 G1/2.  It seems there is a new coin every couple weeks whose supply dries up, forcing prices to spike.  What is the next relatively-low-population key-denomination gold panda that will spike?  The 1992 G1/2?  The 1993 G1/2?  (Moderator disclosure:  I own the 1992, & 1993, 1997 G1/2 and I would buy more if I found them at the right price). 

I'm tempted to sell some of the coins that have increased in price (I've sold a few already), but then again, one has to suspect that the distribution and promotion of Peter's new book in a few months will further stoke interest in gold pandas.  I'm torn.  Perhaps I'll hold on to most of my gold pandas for another 6 months to a year.  I'd sell some and buy more if I could, but the places I used to go to buy don't have much supply anymore.  Thus, I'm not confident I could replace any given coin that I sell, and I have a 5yr + investment horizon (unless prices skyrocket earlier).

It is also interesting that the price of gold has been falling (sharply), yet the price of the gold pandas still climbs?!  Furthermore, in the clamor to buy gold panda dates, no one seems to be focused on varieties and high grade?  Will some people first buy date set in average grade and filled with a common variety, and then get more interested in panda collecting and later seek out higher grade coins and better varieties?  I assume Peter's book will be published in Chinese and many people will read about the varieties (and undoubtedly are learning about varieties from other sources)?  Intriguing times...

Birdman

Offline NBM

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2013, 01:24:13 PM »
I assume Peter's book will be published in Chinese...

Have you heard something to this affect?
Has it ever been translated in the past?
This would be very interesting.. there is a bridge being built between the Western Eastern & Western coin communities that I find of great interest.
If Peter & Ge were to translate their works, how to say... Boom goes the dynamite!  :w00t:

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Data on the direction of the Chinese economy
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2013, 03:08:48 PM »
If Peter & Ge were to translate their works, how to say... Boom goes the dynamite!  :w00t:
Actually the translation of Ge's book is quite simple since it is just name, mint, weight, diameter, and mintage.  I wonder if anyone has contacted Mr Ge and ask for the right to translate his book into English?