Author Topic: Submission Size Analysis for Silver I&D  (Read 1584 times)

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Offline dc55232

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Submission Size Analysis for Silver I&D
« on: March 25, 2013, 04:18:28 PM »
As suggested by SANDAC I did some analysis ...

I categorized submissions (more specific single invoice numbers) into 4 buckets by the number of containing specimens of a given type:

Small : 1-2
Medium : 3-10
Large: 11-100
Extra Large: 100+

The results is given as follows:

<Year and type of coin>
<total number of specimens in my data base> <% of specimens in Small submissions> <% in Medium submissions> <% in Large submissions> <% in Extra Large submissions>

All 4 percentage numbers should add up to about 100% (not always exactly due to rounding)

1992 CHINA ANCIENT KITE FLYING SERIES I;S5Y
136 91% 9% 0% 0%
1992 CHINA ANCIENT SHIP BUILDING SERIES I;S5Y
144 73% 27% 0% 0%
1992 CHINA BRONZE AGE URN SERIES I;S5Y
578 21% 12% 3% 64%
1992 CHINA COMPASS SERIES I;S5Y
549 23% 8% 23% 46%
1992 CHINA SEISMOGRAPH SERIES I;S5Y
756 16% 4% 6% 74%

1993 CHINA DEFINITION OF ZERO SERIES II;S5Y
180 48% 4% 48% 0%
1993 CHINA STIRRUP SERIES II;S5Y
89 80% 20% 0% 0%
1993 CHINA TERRACOTTA ARMY SERIES II;S5Y
387 21% 15% 5% 59%
1993 CHINA UMBRELLA SERIES II;S5Y
283 28% 5% 13% 54%
1993 CHINA YIN & YANG PHILOSOPHY FROSTED YIN - SERIES II;S5Y
15 80% 20% 0% 0%
1993 CHINA YIN & YANG PHILOSOPHY MIRRORED YIN - SERIES II;S5Y
35 100% 0% 0% 0%
1993 CHINA YIN & YANG PHILOSOPHY SERIES II;S5Y
1020 4% 1% 4% 92%

1994 CHINA CHAIN WATER PUMPS SERIES III;S5Y
141 57% 11% 32% 0%
1994 CHINA RECORDING OF COMETS SERIES III;S5Y
117 62% 15% 24% 0%
1994 CHINA SAILING MAST & CROWS NEST SERIES III;S5Y
126 49% 30% 21% 0%
1994 CHINA SILKEN FABRIC SERIES III;S5Y
147 55% 17% 28% 0%
1994 CHINA TUNED BELLS SERIES III;S5Y
156 55% 17% 28% 0%

1995 CHINA ACUPUNCTURE SERIES IV;S5Y
385 17% 3% 15% 66%
1995 CHINA BLOCK PRINTING SERIES IV;S5Y
385 18% 1% 20% 61%
1995 CHINA CANNON & GUNPOWDER SERIES IV;S5Y
386 18% 2% 13% 68%
1995 CHINA PORCELAIN CRAFTING SERIES IV;S5Y
329 17% 3% 4% 76%
1995 CHINA WEI QI - CHINESE GAME SERIES IV;S5Y
369 15% 4% 17% 65%

1996 CHINA ASTRONOMICAL CLOCK SERIES V;S5Y
79 78% 22% 0% 0%
1996 CHINA HORSE CART SERIES V;S5Y
95 81% 19% 0% 0%
1996 CHINA MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS SERIES V;S5Y
71 82% 18% 0% 0%
1996 CHINA SHIP RUDDER SERIES V;S5Y
79 82% 18% 0% 0%
1996 CHINA SUSPENSION BRIDGE SERIES V;S5Y
96 82% 18% 0% 0%

Do not hesitate to contact me in case of further questions ...

Regards
dc55232

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Submission Size Analysis for Silver I&D
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2013, 04:45:28 PM »
If you know how to use pivot table, then you can plot them in histogram against the NGC number like this:
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=7637.0

My data at the time (and even now), is not as complete as yours, so many of the plots only contain 50% NGC population.  I think it is worthwhile to re-plot it and see whether it is a "lumpy" distribution (large dealer submission), or even distribution (collector submission).

With near 100% capture of data, you can also plot population against time, assuming you know the time stamp associated with each NGC number which is not too hard to figure out.  You can also go back to CCF archive and others to dig out time stamp of specific NGC numbers.

Another application is checking the coin grade with respect to time.  If the running average of grade changes, then there are two reasonable explainations: 1.  NGC change its grading standard, or 2.  the quality of OMP is declining implying deletion of the particular coin pool thus infer its survival mintage.  Grading standard change is global while declining of OMP quality is local, so giving enough plots, you should be able to separate these two variables.

Good luck!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Submission Size Analysis for Silver I&D
« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2013, 02:57:09 AM »
How do you get a time stamp for a NGC certification number?  Dealers typically grab a 25-100 NGC forms at a show or get them mailed to them and then use those forms over the course of a year or two until a new form is issued.  Currently NGC certs may start with 365..., but I and many others are still generating slabs with certs 352... 354... 359... from various batches of forms that I/we picked up over a year ago or 6 months ago.  For collectors similar time stamp issues occur, they often get forms with their annual welcome package and not use them until months to a year in the future.  

Arif

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Submission Size Analysis for Silver I&D
« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2013, 11:54:22 AM »
I'm thinking of the electronic submission either through NCS or NGC directly.  The NGC assigned cert number of coins that went through NCS are growing rapidly.  It was 37698xx a month or so ago.  The number generated by direct electronic submission to NGC grow more slowly.  The current number (a week ago) is around 27845xx.   I believe the two number sequences increase linearly with respect to time, but I've notice there are large gaps set aside.  They may be holes that will eventually be filled with paper submission numbers.  I don't have complete data and there are many aspects of NGC numbering I don't understand, but I'm glad that dc55232 is also looking into this.  Collectively we should have a better understanding of NGC cert numbers.

The paper submission is more difficult to track as you said.  I had paper submissions that were assigned the number printed on the form, and I also had paper submissions that were assigned different numbers.  I'm hoping that paper submission numbers can be separate from the electronic submission, so at least we'll have solid chronological data of the electronic submission.