Author Topic: Lunar coin market prices  (Read 8932 times)

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Offline badon

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2010, 04:51:18 PM »
Actually, interest in stamps has declined in recent years, probably because the notion of a rare postage stamp isn't universal (think of metered mail). Diamonds might be in trouble as artificial technology advances, just like what happened to rubies. I know nothing about watches...

...But I do know about coins. They are probably the oldest kind of thing collected. Interest in them has declined in every age of paper money, and again in the current age of electronic money. That's part of the reason why virtually every ancient coin in collections today was found either under the ground or under water. No collected coin has been passed down through the ages.

However, every attempt to use fiat money, whether it is made of metal, paper, or plastic (modern credit cards) has failed dramatically and completely...that's when people start collecting coins again! China is far ahead of the rest of the world in hoarding the gold, silver, etc. They invented fiat currency, so they know better than anyone that it's fun for a while, but it's doomed, and you don't want to be the one holding it at the end.

As far as I know, China is the only country that has told its people to start buying precious metals. That means that they will be the only ones with money when the fiat party ends again. The statistics you're interested in might be interesting, but I don't think anyone is gathering them. They're too busy being part of it, or getting beaten by it. The house is burning down, and it doesn't matter how fast, or in what manner. Just start cooking your hotdogs and s'mores or you'll be homeless AND hungry! Starving people can't build a new house when it's all over.

Things are changing, and you're in the right place at the right time, so be glad such a fun hobby can be profitable, enjoy yourself. Sorry, I can't even remember the name of the Chinese numismatic club, but I bet one of the dealers could tell you. Most of the buyers of coins are not members of any clubs though, so I don't know if it will be helpful information.

Offline pecus

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #16 on: August 19, 2010, 03:48:42 PM »
I came across this bit of information about the Chinese market, with a forecast for the next decade.  I have no idea how reliable it is, insofar as any forecast can be said to be "reliable," but it does have some concrete numbers to work with, which is unusual in these discussions.

Pecus




"I tell you all this to prepare you for this key idea. As CLSA, the Asian investing specialists, put it in a recent report: “The future of Asia is domestic.”

This is an important shift. For a long time now, China’s economy (and Asia’s generally) has been geared toward servicing the West, toward exports. Now begins a transformation, the rise of the Asian consumer.

One key data point here is disposable income. CLSA notes that the number of Asians (excluding Japan) with disposable income of $3,000 annually will rise from 570 million to 945 million by 2015. More than two-thirds of that increase will come from China alone.

As CLSA notes, “The consumption spending of this middle class will rise from US$2.9 trillion to US$5.1 trillion by 2015, with China, India and Indonesia contributing to 69%, 16% and 4% of the increment.” By 2014, about 44% of the population in China will top this $3,000 threshold — a 27% increase over 2009.

These numbers back what I intuitively grasped on my trip. There is a big mass of consumers that want all the things many of us take for granted — like Crest toothpaste and bluejeans and air conditioners. That’s a lot of fresh money in the pool — and companies like Yum! Brands, McDonald’s, Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Starbucks and many others are all jockeying for a share of the prize. And in many cases, they already have substantial businesses here. You can see their presence while you are driving around Beijing.

Servicing this growing middle class is going to be an important investment theme for the next several years.""

Regards,
Chris Mayer
Whiskey & Gunpowder

Offline badon

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2010, 03:02:36 AM »
Wow, 44% of China! That's over 700 million people! Just 1000 of them can have a huge impact on prices of the rarest coins.

Offline happycoins II

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2010, 03:31:51 AM »
By looking at the realized price at the current Hosane Auction, I believe the theory of numbering of Chinese people has shown the huge impact on the modern coins'pricing.

Happycoins II :001_tt1:     

Offline badon

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2010, 03:39:13 AM »
I think I found the auction:

http://www.hosane.com/productlist.asp?auctionid=S10127

Those prices are incredible. wow!

$21k+ for a 1993 fu lu shu, amazing. I remember the old days 6 months ago when those were just barely over $10k.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2010, 06:03:51 AM »
My impression of the Hosane results is that this is the first auction in quite some time where Pandas looked stronger than Lunar coins. The Lunars, which have had a fabulous run up in recent months, brought good but not record prices. Demand was strong for commemorative Pandas: $4,150 for the 1996 1/4 oz Munich bimetallic medal, $7,954 for the 1991 gold Anniversary piedfort coin and $5,879 for the Basel mislabeled gold error. The 1987 5 oz. gold Panda sale at $23,860 also caught my eye.

Last but not least, I was pleased that most auction prices seemed in line with the prices shown in the December Panda Pricepedia (http://www.pandacollector.com/pricepedia.html).

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline happycoins II

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2010, 08:39:11 AM »
What about the 1988 Hong Kong seventh international exhibition 5 ounces silver medal, is the relized price of USD 2,066 a new record?

Happycoins :w00t:

Offline pecus

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2010, 09:03:40 AM »
Aren't these Shanghai prices a bit lower than the Champion Auction prices from Hong Kong in early Dec?  The 12-set 12 oz silver lunar group brought about $75K, which I believe is lower than what the sum of the individual sales of 12 oz lunars in Hong Kong would amount to. :confused1:

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2010, 11:10:50 AM »
What about the 1988 Hong Kong seventh international exhibition 5 ounces silver medal, is the relized price of USD 2,066 a new record?

Happycoins :w00t:

Yes! That's another Panda medal that was very strong.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #24 on: December 24, 2010, 11:13:13 AM »
Aren't these Shanghai prices a bit lower than the Champion Auction prices from Hong Kong in early Dec?  The 12-set 12 oz silver lunar group brought about $75K, which I believe is lower than what the sum of the individual sales of 12 oz lunars in Hong Kong would amount to. :confused1:

There was good demand for the Lunars but not quite as good as at the Champion Auction. The Pandas were in many instances stronger.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

KonaJim

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #25 on: December 26, 2010, 01:48:07 AM »
One thing to keep in mind is there are not a lot of lunar coins being offered.  There are a few gold and silver issues, and very little in the larger 5 oz. coins.  The Hong Kong Auction had one platinum lunar set but no single platinum lunar coins.  The Hosane auction had no platinum lunar coins, and the upcoming Heritage Auction has no platinum lunar coins.  I think it was a year ago at the Heritage Auction that six or seven platinum lunars were offered, including the Monkey and the Rat.  That might have been the last opportunity to own these coins, unless you are a "collector" and willing to pay an almost unlimited price.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #26 on: December 26, 2010, 02:04:53 AM »
One thing to keep in mind is there are not a lot of lunar coins being offered.  There are a few gold and silver issues, and very little in the larger 5 oz. coins.  The Hong Kong Auction had one platinum lunar set but no single platinum lunar coins.  The Hosane auction had no platinum lunar coins, and the upcoming Heritage Auction has no platinum lunar coins.  I think it was a year ago at the Heritage Auction that six or seven platinum lunars were offered, including the Monkey and the Rat.  That might have been the last opportunity to own these coins, unless you are a "collector" and willing to pay an almost unlimited price.

Better material might have drawn better demand.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline pecus

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #27 on: December 26, 2010, 10:35:58 AM »
Shouldn't the scarcity of lunar coins lead to higher realized prices, given sufficient liquidity in the market?  Is there something about this coin market that leads to a disconnect between supply and demand, such as hoarding?  Perhaps there is a plateau dynamic at work, in which high prices are established but not high enough to draw further supply into the market until something external to the market shakes things up.  Come to think of it, this characteristic is what one finds in immature markets, where market makers are not capable of setting new realistic prices in a timely manner.  Someone just made a similar point on another thread about the maturity of the US coin market.  Everyone in the US knows what some coin is worth because there are reliable, widely accepted pricing guides, a feature that does not exist for the markets we're talking about, leading buyers and sellers to not know what the other might be willing to do.

Peter Anthony may be blazing the price-guide path for everyone!

Offline badon

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #28 on: December 26, 2010, 10:27:38 PM »
There is definitely a lot of hoarding going on. That's why some coins are selling for prices that don't reflect their mintages. It seems no price draws more supply into the market. People don't sell once they buy, in part because the purchases are given as gifts, or kept as family treasures.


Offline happycoins II

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Re: Lunar coin market prices
« Reply #29 on: December 27, 2010, 09:37:04 PM »
When I started collecting lunar coins 3 years ago while the chinese mordern coins market was not as popular at present, I was told by a reputable dealer in Singapore that most of his platinum chinese modern coins had to be melt down and sold as the spot price so that he could manage his inventory to aviod having too much platinum coins (at that time, he believed that the spot price of platinum were too high and would be down in a near future). This might also be a factor as to why platinum chinese modern coins are even more harder to find nowadays. :cursing:

Happycoins II :001_tongue: