Author Topic: NGC pagoda article  (Read 12567 times)

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Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #45 on: December 12, 2012, 04:58:40 PM »
Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.
A valid concern, however if that's the only risk of substance, then (strictly speaking for myself) I am well contented with the upside/downside trade off.  I'm not going to sleep for 10-15 years.  Such risk will be monitored and managed.

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #46 on: December 12, 2012, 05:10:51 PM »
"After careful research including consultation with several Chinese mints, NGC acknowledges that all four metal types were officially minted. As a result, NGC will now accept all four metal types for certification".

"NGC currently employs more than 20 full time coin graders. Among them are the most skilled and acclaimed professionals in the field, making the NGC team the greatest assemblage of coin graders in history"


And this is what they came up with regarding the pagodas sets?

This could of been an opportunity for NGC to settle the score with the Pagodas. An opportunity to take the lead and show the collecting community NGC is on top of its ball game.

To me it means NGC still does not know much about the pagodas and that they do not want to commit to the brand. NGC knew very well the "detailed" concerns of CMC collectors when it came to the Pagodas sets. The Chinese coin forum made sure to make those concerns loud and clear.


sincerely,
exchange
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 05:14:35 PM by exchange »

Offline NBM

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #47 on: December 12, 2012, 05:24:42 PM »
"After careful research including consultation with several Chinese mints, NGC acknowledges that all four metal types were officially minted. As a result, NGC will now accept all four metal types for certification".

"NGC currently employs more than 20 full time coin graders. Among them are the most skilled and acclaimed professionals in the field, making the NGC team the greatest assemblage of coin graders in history"


And this is what they came up with regarding the pagodas sets?

This could of been an opportunity for NGC to settle the score with the Pagodas. An opportunity to take the lead and show the collecting community NGC is on top of its ball game.

To me it means NGC still does not know much about the pagodas and that they do not want to commit to the brand. NGC knew very well the "detailed" concerns of CMC collectors when it came to the Pagodas sets. The Chinese coin forum made sure to make those concerns loud and clear.


sincerely,
exchange

+1

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2012, 05:35:26 PM »
Questions concerning the pagodas can be answered by contacting NGC   mcorley@ngc.coin.com         I do not think they want to put alot of information on their press release.   The bronze, silver plate and gilt have been rumored to have restrikes.  The real silver pagodas have no restrikes that i know of.   NGC read many CCF articles concerning them that I forwarded.  Their point of view was puzzlement.  Why all the hoopla over one chinese medal?   IF the pagodas have problems than I think many other early MCC have problems too.  No one on this forum can answer your questions.  So please contact NGC and see what answer you can come up with then share that with us....................

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2012, 06:01:31 PM »

 A hoard of 30-50 pagodas sets owned by one dealer for one reason or another could explain the disproportional excess of graded pagodas.  


You are correct that several hoards of sets could were submitted by a few collectors/investors, my estimate is roughly a total of 25 sets among three collectors/investors is likely.   But this is fairly common for Chinese coins to have hoards come out and be added to NGC population in a short period of time.  In 2011 I had opportunity to buy 18x 1984 1oz HK medals (mintage 1000) in Sept 2011 and 11x 1984 1oz HK medals (mintage 1000) in Nov 2011 - all these were graded by the dealers after he wasn't satisfied with the offers received.  In summer of 2010 I bought 50x 1989 3.3oz god of wealth silver medal (mintage 2430), 28x 1987 3.3oz gold of longevity silver medals (mintage 1800) and 80x 1995 maritime silver sets (mintage 3000), the graded pops double and tripled very quickly but over the years more and more coins still came out. In 2008 I tried to get a 1995P 1oz silver panda in PF70 to overtake LarryD registry proof silver set, I bought 5 sheets of 1995 proofs and graded them, got 48x PF69 and 2x PF68 (the collector that owns the pop 1 PF70 coin submitted just one coin), but in the process doubled the PF69 population in a month, from 50 to a 100, now few years later the PF69 pop is 242, which for 7000 mintage coin is roughly 5%-6% total mintage being graded to date.  This coin has been very popular for 7 years now and still only 5%-6% of the population has been graded.  For the 1984 HK medal, roughly 7% of the total population has been graded, it too has been popular for at least 7 years.  For the 1985 94th ANA Great Wall coin 4% of the mintage has been graded (19 out 500 stated mintage). Using this 4%-7% rules as a metric, one could divide the 67 pagoda graded by 0.04 and 0.07 to get an estimated mintage range of 1,675 to 957 for the pagodas.  Next one could say that on average 80% of the medals issued in the 1980s were melted or not distributed and arrive at low mintage numbers like 200-300, but if you do that haircut for pagodas a similar magnitude haircut is warranted for HK medals and ANA great wall medals - so the conclusion is almost all Chinese coins from 1979-2006 are very rare, until another hoard comes out to spook everyone for a short period of time and then supply disappears as quickly as it appeared.

I like pagoda sets as much as the next guy in Utah (welcome Utah3), however when I bid on them (NGC pop 67) I bid with an mintage in mind that is more like the 84 HK medal (1000 mintage, NGC pop 70) than a coin that is twice as rare as the 85 ANA great wall medal (500 mintage, NGC pop 19).  I think it will take at least another 20-30 years to get a majority (over 50% of surviving pop) of all the coins out of people's safes and into NGC holders, some coins will never get graded simply because OMP collectors and coins are put away as a heirloom.

Arif

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2012, 06:37:11 PM »
Arif:  So we will never know the actual mintage or surviving population of most older MCC?  Let the market decide then.......

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2012, 06:53:05 PM »
Arif,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge with the forum!  I believe I know many of the items you've submitted en masse plus many other huge dealer submission in the middle of 2011.  There are many in the Invention & Discovery series that accounted for 70-90% of current population in one submission.  

I also like to share my own Pagoda population study with the forum.  Over the course of all these discussions, I've identified 56 set out of the 67 set in NGC population (actually not all pagoda are graded as set, but it is a very good approximation).  The NGC cert number increases monotoneously with respect to time, so once a few time marks are known (like the date of my own submissions) then the timeline of certification number can be nailed down.   However, NGC number sequence are different for on-line submission and mail-in pdf submission.  So I plot the know 56 set in two separate charts, one shows the chronological progression of the on-line submission, while the other shows the mail-in PDF submission.  The time marks are approximate, give or take 2 weeks.  Looking at the chart one can see the big hoards that Arif talking about around the spring/summer of 2011, then it taper off to one set at a time.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2012, 07:30:44 PM »
Arif:  So we will never know the actual mintage or surviving population of most older MCC?  Let the market decide then.......

I totally agree, we will never have absolute survival numbers and that is a good thing for a healthy market and debate.  Uncertainty creates opportunity and motivation for people to buy, sell and trade, if we all knew exactly what the key coins were, then the market would become too efficient for any of us to outsmart it over the long term.  We can thank the china mint poor record keeping, 20 year bear market in metals and a general dislike of Chinese coins by typical US coin collectors and US coin dealers. 

SANDAC - are NCS submission tracked by you, all my pagoda submissions were NCS submissions.  Also, be careful about assuming that serial numbers of NGC lots are sequential in time (unless all the arrows above refer to your own submissions), for example when I go to a show, I may grab a 50-100 submission forms and use them over the course of a year or two, by the time I used up the last submission form from that grab, the current serial number may be indexed up by 10000-20000.  Also, serial numbers starting with a 1 and 4 are possible from show submissions and NGC partitions (when a collector submits a 12oz coin with 1oz coin, the 12oz gets a separate number because it gets charged a oversize holder fee, or if you submit a $10K coins with $2K coins, NGC will divide the submission into two serial number, there are other reasons NGC divides serial numbers). 

Overall this is excellent data tracking, I have asked NGC for this data several times, but they simply do not store population trend data.

Arif

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #53 on: December 12, 2012, 07:57:41 PM »
We can thank the china mint poor record keeping, 20 year bear market in metals and a general dislike of Chinese coins by typical US coin collectors and US coin dealers. 
Well said!  Put a frame around the above sentence.  This is the executive summary of the MCC for the first 20 years and why they are such collectible today.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2012, 08:09:56 PM »
I believe the NCS numbers are converted to NGC number starts with "3" when they are moved from NCS to NGC.  The paper-based forms (the one with multiple carbon copies) seem to have changed over last year.  In the beginning it is the same number as the one printed on the form (start with "4"), but lately it seems to transfer to "3".  I'm uncertain about that.  I know each NGC number only go up to 500 coins, so a submission with over 500 coins gets splitted up.  I also know of many submissions of a single type of coin where one number is assigned all PF/MS67, next consecutive number is assigned all PF/MS68, and the next consecutive number is assigned PF/MS69, etc.  All in all, I think there are minor inconsistencies, but good enough for trend study.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2012, 08:46:47 PM »
One set of PF 69 silver pagodas sold today.  Another PF 69 set will have a part trade and cash offer as a new collector friend of mine wants to buy it.  I don't have a set of PF 69 and my stupid friends are buying more MCC than me!   Guess they are not stupid.   The pagodas are getting alot of attention now due to NGC's short article and information from forum members.  I thought the market would pick up slow but buyers are moving forward quickly.  Arif, you are a wealth of knowledge.  Keep posting your comments.........

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2012, 08:52:58 PM »
One set of PF 69 silver pagodas sold today.  Another PF 69 set will have a part trade and cash offer as a new collector friend of mine wants to buy it.  I don't have a set of PF 69 and my stupid friends are buying more MCC than me!   Guess they are not stupid.   The pagodas are getting alot of attention now due to NGC's short article and information from forum members.  I thought the market would pick up slow but buyers are moving forward quickly.  Arif, you are a wealth of knowledge.  Keep posting your comments.........

Jay's set SOLD! Yes, Arif's insight is amazing. I hope he keeps up the great contributions. I learned a lot from him.

Offline GDG's

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2012, 09:22:53 PM »
Sandac Quote,
>>>There are many in the Invention & Discovery series that accounted for 70-90% of current population in one submission. <<<

Soothsayers for sure. :001_tt2: :001_tt2: :001_tt2: