Author Topic: NGC pagoda article  (Read 9992 times)

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Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2012, 09:51:40 AM »
Arif,
Yet another great piece of analysis.  I'm glad to have your input on NGC population in general and the Pagoda in specific.  I'm a recent student of NGC population, and I find your analysis both informative and enlightening.   I myself am more interested in the enumerated study of individual coins and individual types, looking for varieties, understanding the lumpiness of distribution (dealer vs investor).   My schtick is "stock vs flow"--total population is important, but just as important is the rate of increase and quality (grade) of the incoming.

As for Pagoda, I like them, collect them.  I'm in the early part of my accumulation phase.  I don't mind falling price, in fact, I welcome them.  :sneaky2:

Offline Utah3

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2012, 12:52:38 PM »
New commenter here,

 We can use NGC population numbers many times to determine rarity, but not always. It is good to use with other criteria.  Each coin/set has its own story. The 1984 silver Pagoda population numbers could be reflecting.

1. There was a large 30-40 Pagoda set hoard graded about 18 months ago. You take the hoard out of the population what do you have?

2. It has been said on this thread these sets sold for $200-300 quite recently. Then they shot up to $5000-$10,000 quite quickly. I'd imagine most available   supply was found and graded for the high dollars. People will get expensive sets graded to verify authenticity. This could account partly for the higher population. It has been stated on this thread no new sets have been graded since July 2012. What does that say??

3. A large number of sets graded compared to the mintage might mean the they were retained because they were known to be rare and popular.  Example the 1909 S VDB Lincoln cent has a higher NGC population because of its popularity than many less rare Lincoln cent coins.

Just some ideas to think about.

I am a believer that they are a rare set with a good future.

Hopefully with the NGC announcement their mystery will subside

Thanks
utah3


Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2012, 01:13:42 PM »
This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.

I call that portfolio an "anti-fragile" portfolio  N31 Very well-said, Arif.

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:13 PM »

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.   

Arif


You make a very logical and sound argument to estimate that the pagodas' mintage is 1000+ which still constitutes a rare medal. However, all it takes is one or two circumstance to throw off your argument off course. A hoard of 30-50 pagodas sets owned by one dealer for one reason or another could explain the disproportional excess of graded pagodas. 

Disclaimer: I own pagodas,and I enjoy owning them

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:56 PM »
New commenter here,

 We can use NGC population numbers many times to determine rarity, but not always. It is good to use with other criteria.  Each coin/set has its own story. The 1984 silver Pagoda population numbers could be reflecting.

1. There was a large 30-40 Pagoda set hoard graded about 18 months ago. You take the hoard out of the population what do you have?

2. It has been said on this thread these sets sold for $200-300 quite recently. Then they shot up to $5000-$10,000 quite quickly. I'd imagine most available   supply was found and graded for the high dollars. People will get expensive sets graded to verify authenticity. This could account partly for the higher population. It has been stated on this thread no new sets have been graded since July 2012. What does that say??

3. A large number of sets graded compared to the mintage might mean the they were retained because they were known to be rare and popular.  Example the 1909 S VDB Lincoln cent has a higher NGC population because of its popularity than many less rare Lincoln cent coins.

Just some ideas to think about.

I am a believer that they are a rare set with a good future.

Hopefully with the NGC announcement their mystery will subside

Thanks
utah3



LOL I did not see your post until I posted mine LOL LOL

Offline Obsidian

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2012, 01:58:18 PM »
I believe a fairly large portion of the Pagoda population are owned by members of this forum.  Primarily due to the promoting and discussion on the forum.  Not sure what my point is but kind of interesting.  I guess it seems a bit risky to pay a lot for coins owned and advertised by such a small group of people.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2012, 02:26:01 PM »
Utah3........I agree.   The previous high price brought out most sets for grading.  For me the 260 mintage is accurate..........

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2012, 02:52:17 PM »
New commenter here,
Welcome utah3, a fellow Pagoda enthusiast!

We are a friendly forum, but Pagoda has been a hotly debated topic over and over again.  It is a very hot button issue for a lot of people, so have your "flame" resistant armor on.  You may want to do a search on "pagoda" and read throught some of the 140 posts to get a flavor of the debate.  I want to extend a warm welcome to you and apologize up front if you received one or more flaming hot reception in the topic of Pagoda.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2012, 03:13:55 PM »
Disclosure:  I rather like the Pagoda medals- so much so that I have had three deals to acquire them, but in each case they turned out to be restrikes and the owners didn't
Know it, and I wasn't about to pay $25k, 10k, 8k, 4k,
Or even 1k for them until further information is known.

In my case, I'm glad I didn't rush into these.
May you be happy with whatever price you paid, and with whatever you think you have.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #39 on: December 12, 2012, 03:18:49 PM »
May you be happy with whatever price you paid, and with whatever you think you have.
If that comment is addressed to me, I thank you for your well wishes.  I also thank NGC for their guarantee.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2012, 03:39:28 PM »
The set that sold for $25,000 is a true silver set, I sold it in March of 2011 for $2,000 in PF69 to cash360 and a couple more at roughly the same price to other passionate pagoda collectors, he flipped it for $25,000 a few months later, it really did happen.  Before all the pumping on the forum in the late spring and early summer of 2011 the silver sets were very common and could be had for $500-$700.  This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.  

To give you an idea of how speculative the market was I will give you short history of the prices that I witnessed or participated in during last two years.  Fall of 2010 through January of 2011, raw silver sets were $600-$700 and plated sets $300-$400, March of 2011 sold out my few PF69 sets for $2000-$3000, prices moved up fast because 2-3 collectors wanted to own these sets aggressively, May-July 2011 the promoting began and prices started to climb, I got offers of $4,000, $5,000, $8,000 for these PF69 sets, but I didn't have any to sell, then a PF69 set sold for $25,000, now those that were trying to buy from me flipped and tried to sell to me at $25,000, $15,000, $10,000 during August of 2011, I passed, but transactions did occur in July-September time frame around $12,000-$8,000 for PF69 sets, based on what I know the second highest transaction for that silver set was for $12,000, a few weeks after the $25,000 set sold, I finally found a set in November of 2011 and sold it for $6,000, then prices continued to drop, in the spring of 2012 prices bottomed at $4,000, in the summer a few more traded at $4000 plus or minus $300 and last transaction was also around $4000 about two months back.  

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.  

Arif

\

Excellent overview of last two years about this pagoda set.

Please revisit the email from NGC to panda express in the following posting.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.795

And thread by RAREMEDAL,

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=6379.0

The new article from NGC has not address the issues discussed in this forum at all. NGC has not give out any additional information about those sets. What is the weight of each medal? When the plated medal and brass was produced? How many versions of silver plated and brass medal produced by China Mint? IMO, many silver plated and brass medals in the market were not produced in 1984 by China Mint. Can NGC detect the difference of original 1984 silver plated and brass set from re-strike set minted in a later year? Unlike coin which has denomination and legal tender of China, re-strike of medal by Mint does not require a prior approval from Bank of China. This is the major reason that the commemorative medal always has a lower value than coin produced for the same theme, even the mintage of medal may be lower than coin.

Most of four medal connected pouch set, recently sold in the market, are silver plated, except one which, IMO, is genuine silver set sold by Xu Hong. Those 4-medal pouched sets were sealed recently and most likely were re-striking silver plated by China Mint. However, I will not rule out the potential of fake silver plated sets with the same package in the market.

Since NGC had graded so many silver pagoda sets prior to have sufficent and reliable information, such as weight of medal, the chance was good that some of graded sets may not be genuine silver. IMO, NGC ought to recall all graded sets to re-authentic them. Until this is done, IMO, the risk of purchasing a graded set is just as great as purchasing a raw set, unless you are knowledgeable enough to know the differences of silver, original silver plated, re-strike silver plated and fake.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2012, 04:02:07 PM »
Thank you, poconopenn.  It is very well stated.

I like to add if I may, that NGC certification is an insurance policy.  Should I chose to sell 10-15 years later when presumably the dust is settled, I will first present these slabs for NGC review.  Should those slabs turn out to be cheaper silver plated, NGC will compensate me appropriately.  I may not have the silver pagoda all along, but my investment is covered.  Having the downside covered, I'm content with the uncertainly at present.

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2012, 04:10:26 PM »
Thank you, poconopenn.  It is very well stated.

I like to add if I may, that NGC certification is an insurance policy.  Should I chose to sell 10-15 years later when presumably the dust is settled, I will first present these slabs for NGC review.  Should those slabs turn out to be cheaper silver plated, NGC will compensate me appropriately.  I may not have the silver pagoda all along, but my investment is covered.  Having the downside covered, I'm content with the uncertainly at present.

Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.


exchange

Offline dynamike51

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2012, 04:17:26 PM »
Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.


exchange

exchange:

You have no need to worry since you keep all your coins in OMPs and their beautiful boxes.   :thumbup: :001_tt1:

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2012, 04:21:12 PM »
exchange:

You have no need to worry since you keep all your coins in OMPs and their beautiful boxes.   :thumbup: :001_tt1:

It's just something to think about. We have seen so many companies that were in business for decades vanish over the last 10 years. Relying on a private business to still be around or have the same policies in such a time frame may not be a good bet.

If you are going to buy graded coins and medals, make sure you know what you are getting, don't rely on the grading company to come to the rescue. That could be a false sense of security.

sincerely,
exchange
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 04:28:14 PM by exchange »