Author Topic: NGC pagoda article  (Read 11825 times)

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Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2012, 12:29:13 AM »
I still do not understand your argument against them........

It’s called pagodaphobia !!!  :scared:

No seriously … the concerns that hipanda, poconopenn and many others have alluded to about pagodas should be taken into consideration. In the end if you like these coins that much and are happy with them then by all means buy, collect and enjoy them. Life’s too short !   

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2012, 12:44:37 AM »
Ok, but just know if you paid $25,000 for a possibly plated set worth only $250. NGC doesn't know, still, what their previously graded sets are, solid or sterling.

Life is short, if you have millions to burn, and you like them, fine, why not?

Caveat emptor.  Know what you are buying.  Dont buy blind.  If you like plated pagoda sets, fine, but why not spend only what they are worth: doesn't it make more sense, then, to buy 100 plated sets at $250 each, rather than just one $250 plated set at $25,000?
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2012, 12:50:16 AM »

the buyer and seller are the same person in which no money ever changed hands.  :scared:



The set was sold to someone on this forum.


Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2012, 01:01:36 AM »
I've seen it reported that a forum member paid that price.  I dont believe it.

I havent seen that rumored member here posting for a while, either.  If they want to come on and admit to paying that amount, I'd be first shocked.

Possibilities:
1) they got one of the few REAL solid limited sets in circulation. They are giggling to themselves quietly still about their great buy. And yet knowledgeable buyers and sellers have since passed on prices from 20k, 15k, 10k, 5k, 4k.
Hard to believe that scenario, in a market of people who know what's what. Clark, KJ, many many others.
Or:
2) they got a common plated set, and they know now they have been duped by the rah-rah cheerleading and pumping that was going on then.  They overpaid by over $20,000 and they are embarrassed, but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn.
Or:
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam. Would a dealer stretch the truth about the price they sold a set at, in a perceived hot market with a perceived limited edition?  I dont have to tell you the answer to that if you are an adult.



"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2012, 01:09:28 AM »
How did we arrive to the conclusion that silver plated pagoda set is worth $250 ? I want to know that first. Gilt brass is about $200 - many of those were sold by LucklyMoney, but I have not seen any silver plated set going for low price.

Of course, silver content does not matter - what matters is mintage. Hipanda - you seem very confident about low value of silver plated pagoda set - maybe you can answer this ?

Offline Obsidian

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2012, 01:13:51 AM »
I've seen it reported that a forum member paid that price.  I dont believe it.

I havent seen that rumored member here posting for a while, either.  If they want to come on and admit to paying that amount, I'd be first shocked.

Possibilities:
1) they got one of the few REAL solid limited sets in circulation. They are giggling to themselves quietly still about their great buy. And yet knowledgeable buyers and sellers have since passed on prices from 20k, 15k, 10k, 5k, 4k.
Hard to believe that scenario, in a market of people who know what's what. Clark, KJ, many many others.
Or:
2) they got a common plated set, and they know now they have been duped by the rah-rah cheerleading and pumping that was going on then.  They overpaid by over $20,000 and they are embarrassed, but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn.
Or:
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam. Would a dealer stretch the truth about the price they sold a set at, in a perceived hot market with a perceived limited edition?  I dont have to tell you the answer to that if you are an adult.


I have no idea if the set they got was silver or plated, etc.  It is possible they don't know.  "but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn."  My guess this is possible.

All I can say is according to both parties to the transaction, it did occur.  That much I can confirm based on conversations with both parties.  Of course I can't make you believe  :001_tongue:


And of course one extreme sale has little to do with the actual value of the set after so many lower sales since.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 01:17:18 AM by Obsidian »

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2012, 01:16:58 AM »
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam.




Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2012, 01:26:06 AM »
Good question, Shibaji !

We know that the Pagodas and Goldfish have many similarities.  
First, they are medals, not coins, and thus not controlled at the same standard as coins, with no real mintage restrike restrictions.
Second, same (arguable) year of first introduction, 1984.
Third, sent out in same dealer boxes.  
Fourth, rumors of plated coins in Goldfish was confirmed relatively early.  Also existence of early guilt brass sets, and later guilt brass sets, perhaps in nothing like limited edition, and also silver plated sets, with many many sets going for under $100. They may still be making them.
Fifth, finally, after endless denials from pagoda fans, the reluctant admitting that there exist plated silver sets, and brass sets, and guilded sets.  Perhaps from many years later than 1984, in unknown quantities. Maybe still being made.

Truth is we have no idea still at this point in time, which sets are solid, which sets are silver plated, and which sets were from 1984, and which sets are restrikes.  There is no way restrike plated sets are worth anything close to solid original sets. Since the goldfish plated restrikes recent edition are gong for under $100, my estimate of $200 allows for imperfect information still resulting in overvaluation of current plated restrikes. Like the goldfish, except figuring buyers still haven't caught on yet.  Just my 2 cents.  I'd ask Poconopenn for his latest assessment.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:49 AM »
Does NGC have a warranty for misgraded coins/medals?  (Yes they do)  If NGC graded silver plate pagodas then how many other MCC are phony?   I trust poconopen's opinion but I will trust NGC to accurately grade MCC.  Hipanda, is your argument with NGC?  Your fear is taking away your ability to reason.  I have read all the arguments for and against.  For me it is obvious.  NGC may have graded a set of silver plate pagodas.  That does not mean all are plate.  With the money back warranty, can't the owner send his pagodas back to NGC for review?  Restrikes would mean more pagodas getting graded and they could be identified like the goldfish restrikes were.  That has not happened and they have been studied by many.  NGC has studied the pagodas and their information is now accurate.  Hipanda, NGC cannot convince you, only poconopen can.  So lets have poconopen give his 2 cents on this intelligent conversation.............Bottom line, very low mintage, heavily studied, rare and real w/ former high prices.  They are undervalued........

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2012, 01:49:58 AM »
Hipanda -

Hmmm ... you have said a lot of things, but no direct answer to my question. Again, being plated does not mean those would not be valuable. You are relating abundant silver plated goldfish sets to hard to find silver plated pagodas. So, it is all speculation. If this is true, you are guilty of the same fault as pandamoium is - just from the reverse direction :-)

Based on the information that was obtained so far for population, this is the order (from rarest to most abundant):

1. brass
2. silver plated
3. silver
4. gilt brass

So, based on this, silver plated should not be less valuable. It is a completely different aspect whether a set is mislabeled as silver for silver plated, but that itself cannot be cause of less valuation.

Please, do not speculate to keep other speculations in check :-)

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2012, 02:15:41 AM »
Shibaji-

That list is not correct, per se.

The reason was evident a few weeks ago when a brass pagoda set was up for sale. The reason it didnt set records?
Why didn't it sell for over $25,000, according to your thinking? It was the rarest, right?

It was a restrike brass set.

There have evidently likely been multiple restrikes, possibly of each type. Now that kind of throws a curveball into how to value them, eh?
So no, a silver plated restrike set would not be worth more than an original solid silver set, anymore than a newer, non-original plated restrike Basel Panda with only 400 minted would be worth more the original in gold.  And yes, mislabeling silver for silver plated can be cause of less valuation. Its what's happening now as people are realizing their sets may likely be plated, and dumping them.

I'd like to hear from Gilmore, who is about the most honest seller lately I have seen, who is actually selling plated sets listed as plated.

"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2012, 02:33:41 AM »
If NGC graded silver plate pagodas then how many other MCC are phoney?.

Many are phoney, and many like the pagodas are still not fully understood. Read Poconopenn's assessment of the NGC article.  In his opinion, and mine, NGC does not still fully understand the pagodas.

NGC still has problem in this pagoda set. The reverse of this set may have the same design, but definitely has some very minor and subtle differences. The broken line is just one of the differences.

LOL- I have no fear interefering with my ability to assess this as I have no investment to try and protect at all costs, like some current owners of Pagodas who are desparately clinging to anything that might justify higher prices, ignoring many reasonable questions being brought forward.  And NGC is coming late to the party, I have zero confidence in them today, understanding what they have certified, and I don't think their information is now accurate. They have "been studied by many" but still not fully understood. Nobody yet has put dates and numbers on the various restrikes. 
Yes they guarantee, so go ahead and gamble if you think they'll pay up despite technicalities.
Good luck. Maybe you have one of the real original ones. I hope so.  How can you tell again?



"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2012, 02:58:03 AM »
Hipanda-

I really cannot understand your convoluted talk. What does this even mean : "There have evidently likely been multiple restrikes, possibly of each type" ? Possibly/evidently/likely does not mix together.

Did you even check the prices for the brass pagoda sells ? Those went for $1375 each set, and were graded 66/67. Why are you even comparing with $25k ?! Everyone knows that was high mark and one time thing. Based on your valuation of $250 for silver plated pagoda, shouldn't brass panda sell for $20 ?

Unbelievable!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2012, 03:03:54 AM »
I have no idea if the set they got was silver or plated, etc.  It is possible they don't know.  "but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn."  My guess this is possible.

All I can say is according to both parties to the transaction, it did occur.  That much I can confirm based on conversations with both parties.  Of course I can't make you believe  :001_tongue:


And of course one extreme sale has little to do with the actual value of the set after so many lower sales since.

The set that sold for $25,000 is a true silver set, I sold it in March of 2011 for $2,000 in PF69 to cash360 and a couple more at roughly the same price to other passionate pagoda collectors, he flipped it for $25,000 a few months later, it really did happen.  Before all the pumping on the forum in the late spring and early summer of 2011 the silver sets were very common and could be had for $500-$700.  This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.  

To give you an idea of how speculative the market was I will give you short history of the prices that I witnessed or participated in during last two years.  Fall of 2010 through January of 2011, raw silver sets were $600-$700 and plated sets $300-$400, March of 2011 sold out my few PF69 sets for $2000-$3000, prices moved up fast because 2-3 collectors wanted to own these sets aggressively, May-July 2011 the promoting began and prices started to climb, I got offers of $4,000, $5,000, $8,000 for these PF69 sets, but I didn't have any to sell, then a PF69 set sold for $25,000, now those that were trying to buy from me flipped and tried to sell to me at $25,000, $15,000, $10,000 during August of 2011, I passed, but transactions did occur in July-September time frame around $12,000-$8,000 for PF69 sets, based on what I know the second highest transaction for that silver set was for $12,000, a few weeks after the $25,000 set sold, I finally found a set in November of 2011 and sold it for $6,000, then prices continued to drop, in the spring of 2012 prices bottomed at $4,000, in the summer a few more traded at $4000 plus or minus $300 and last transaction was also around $4000 about two months back.  

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.  

Arif

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2012, 09:45:54 AM »
Thanks for the reply Arif.   The question of mintage is unanswered for many early MCC.  It will be interesting as the pagodas are studied more in China.  Mr. Ge gives the pagodas 4 stars out of 6.  Very high rating and higher than early silver pandas.  Even the 1985 10 Y 1 oz Sinkiang Autonomy gets 3 stars and a higher price today.  What does he say in his new book?  I will stick to 260 mintage until more information comes available.  If ever.  When I look at prices of the 1995 micro date silver panda 69 priced at about $4k w/ about 4,000 mintage, as an example, then the pagodas w/ 260 mint are way undervalued.  Even IF they had 1000 mintage then they are undervalued.  When prices rise on the pagodas then maybe more will be graded.  Time will tell.  Until then, I believe it is 260 mintage.  This pagoda debate may be applied to other early silver MCC as the mintage, restrikes, varieties, etc are debated in the future. .............Poconopen, could you comment on this topic when you get the chance?.............