Author Topic: NGC pagoda article  (Read 9955 times)

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Offline pandamonium

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NGC pagoda article
« on: December 11, 2012, 11:54:11 AM »
NGC posted the pagoda article today.  Brief but will be read by most coin dealers/collectors world wide.  Like them or not, they are a very low mintage rare MCC.  Will this bring demand and price back?.............



http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?IDArticle=3071

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2012, 03:05:08 PM »
"All four medals feature the same obverse design shown on the right."

Does this mean the medals with broken line are fake?

Offline poconopenn

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2012, 03:21:49 PM »
NGC still has problem in this pagoda set. The reverse of this set may have the same design, but definitely has some very minor and subtle differences. The broken line is just one of the differences.

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2012, 06:34:20 PM »
Ain't that an useless article! :-/

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2012, 10:10:56 PM »
About the same as the goldfish article.  At least it makes the pagodas official and there are 4 types.  Maybe this will stop the confusion of real silver vs silver plate.  The early 1980's silver MCC did not always have accurate records.   I like the early silvers because the mintages will be much lower than planned and there could be varieties.  Many are still affordable................ 

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2012, 10:42:16 PM »
Many are still affordable................ 
In fact I used this lull to bid and win 2 PF68 Pagoda at little over $300 each.  As well as a gilt pagoda and gilt goldfish (lowballed those two, didn't expect to win) from BoyBlueJay. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2012, 10:57:27 PM »
Two PF 68 pagodas for $300 each?  A steal.  Was it the recent ebay sale in Hong Kong?  The silver pagoda is the only MCC that sold for high and dropped to low price due to misunderstandings, that I know of.  From a set of PF 69 at $25k to low of about $5k, today.  It is still tiny mintage and based on China's famous pagoda buildings so I think the market will return.  I lowballed Jay on a 1996 PF 69 1/2 oz Beijing International Expo and won it!   Once in awhile a early 1980's silver OMP will sell for about $50 range. Last one was a 1984 High Jumper.  Doesn't get any cheaper than that........

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2012, 11:10:21 PM »
How do you verify a set was ever sold for $25,000?
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2012, 11:23:41 PM »
Was it the recent ebay sale in Hong Kong? 
It is yus18 from Hong Kong.  Never did business with him before.  Won them on Dec 5, paid within 24 hours, he shipped it via EMS and I received them Dec 10.  That was fast, and I am delighted with the condition of the coins.

BTW, the pagoda population has flatlined since 7/29/2012.  Its population finally increased by one set on 12/10/2012, and it is this set, all PF68.  I'm tracking the grade of the new addition.  If we are scraping the bottom of the barrel of the surviving population, I expect their grade to decline.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2012, 11:36:20 PM »
Hipanda, ebay seller cash360 sold the set last year $25,000 and I spoke to him by phone.  He has faith in pagodas and owns more.  Did not want to give out his name but gotta back up my claim.  The price drop hit all MCC last year and most rare MCC are back up in price but not the pagodas due to debate here on CCF.  Most sellers refer to articles here for loss of price and interest.  Now the argument is officially over.  Will price and demand return?  SANDAC, I saw his auction and you should have bought all of them.  I think you bought them at absolute bottom.  The lowest price PF 68 that I have seen on ebay were $800 each in the US.  No matter what the opinion, you cannot change the mintage of 260 and previous high prices.  How can they not go up?......................

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2012, 11:41:18 PM »
I wouldn't pay $300 for pagodas in 68.

But then, lots of people passed at them at that price, and near prices.

I still think people dont know if they have solid sterling, or plated specimens. NGC didn't know, and I'm not certain they know, still.

How do you know, what you are buying?  I'd recommend everyone carefully read what Poconopenn has said all along, and continues to say.

Pandamonium, its pretty obvious you have an interest in pagodas going higher.  You obviously own a set, or more, to make you such a relentless cheerleader for them. Great.  Good luck.  I hope yours turn out to be solid sterling at least, and not the plated $200 set. Its clear that the victim of the $25,00 sale either got a solid set, at the highest premium ever recorded , or duped and overpaid by a record amount.

Again, I hope your set/s is/are solid. I'd recommend if you are serious you have Poconopenn look at it.  Again, good luck.

(Do you know?)


« Last Edit: December 11, 2012, 11:48:13 PM by Hipanda »
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2012, 12:08:38 AM »
NGC has the equipment to tell the content of the coins.  Can't we trust their opinion?  Are other graded MCC plate and not real silver?  Think about it.  If the pagodas are not real silver and graded then all MCC are not real and falsely graded.  Does that make any sense?  No.  So the argument of pagodas metal content are over.  Maybe a variety?  The coin metal content is labled, like all coins are.  Does this make sense?  Real silver graded pagodas are just that, real silver graded pagodas.   I do not own a full PF 69 set.  I like them because they are undervalued.   I am always looking for the best MCC buy for the price and it is not the newer varieties that get hot, sell for alot then drop in price. That is chasing a quick buck.  So my attention is to the early 1980's silvers that have not been researched for varieties or actual mintage.  Eventually the collectors will pay attention to them and price will increase.   Again, real graded silver pagodas are real graded silver pagodas and not to be confused w/ plate, tin hats, etc.....  NGC knows what they are doing or they would not be in business.  I still do not understand your argument against them........

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2012, 12:10:43 AM »
Its clear that the victim of the $25,000 sale either got a solid set, at the highest premium ever recorded , or duped and overpaid by a record amount.
the buyer and seller are the same person in which no money ever changed hands.  :scared:

Offline Obsidian

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2012, 12:13:19 AM »
Hipanda, ebay seller cash360 sold the set last year $25,000 and I spoke to him by phone.  He has faith in pagodas and owns more.

I can also confirm this.  It was around July of 2011.  Around this time I was in talks with cash360 about this same set.  He was talking a 15-20k price to me.  This was shortly after Badon's article on Pagodas was posted and the hype was in full swing.  Luckily I was unwilling to put that much money into those coins.  The whole experience has made me somewhat anti-pagoda.  Even if they are someday worth that much who knows how long it could take...

the buyer and seller are the same person in which no money ever changed hands.  :scared:

The set was sold to someone on this forum.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 12:15:33 AM by Obsidian »

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2012, 12:15:53 AM »
.  I still do not understand your argument against them........
That is clear.
Maybe you might discuss with Poconopenn, if I cannot make it clear to you.

I'll try:

Only recently has NGC realized there are plated versions. That means for ALL previously graded sets, they are chancey, if they are solid sterling, or cheap plated.  Who knows?  Poconopenn still believes as of today, NGC may be in error.
I have sided with Poconopenn from the beginning of the controversy on this, for many reasons.

And no, NGC's method of detecting plated coins vs solid sterling may not work with clad and minted versions.  Plating may be too thick with heavy clad, to tell the difference by a monitor.  Please feel free to go back and review Poconopenn's earlier posts,  this was all covered.

But I think you choose to ignore it because you want them all to be real solid, and valuable. Fine. Good luck, like I said.


"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2012, 12:29:13 AM »
I still do not understand your argument against them........

It’s called pagodaphobia !!!  :scared:

No seriously … the concerns that hipanda, poconopenn and many others have alluded to about pagodas should be taken into consideration. In the end if you like these coins that much and are happy with them then by all means buy, collect and enjoy them. Life’s too short !   

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2012, 12:44:37 AM »
Ok, but just know if you paid $25,000 for a possibly plated set worth only $250. NGC doesn't know, still, what their previously graded sets are, solid or sterling.

Life is short, if you have millions to burn, and you like them, fine, why not?

Caveat emptor.  Know what you are buying.  Dont buy blind.  If you like plated pagoda sets, fine, but why not spend only what they are worth: doesn't it make more sense, then, to buy 100 plated sets at $250 each, rather than just one $250 plated set at $25,000?
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2012, 12:50:16 AM »

the buyer and seller are the same person in which no money ever changed hands.  :scared:



The set was sold to someone on this forum.


Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #18 on: December 12, 2012, 01:01:36 AM »
I've seen it reported that a forum member paid that price.  I dont believe it.

I havent seen that rumored member here posting for a while, either.  If they want to come on and admit to paying that amount, I'd be first shocked.

Possibilities:
1) they got one of the few REAL solid limited sets in circulation. They are giggling to themselves quietly still about their great buy. And yet knowledgeable buyers and sellers have since passed on prices from 20k, 15k, 10k, 5k, 4k.
Hard to believe that scenario, in a market of people who know what's what. Clark, KJ, many many others.
Or:
2) they got a common plated set, and they know now they have been duped by the rah-rah cheerleading and pumping that was going on then.  They overpaid by over $20,000 and they are embarrassed, but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn.
Or:
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam. Would a dealer stretch the truth about the price they sold a set at, in a perceived hot market with a perceived limited edition?  I dont have to tell you the answer to that if you are an adult.



"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2012, 01:09:28 AM »
How did we arrive to the conclusion that silver plated pagoda set is worth $250 ? I want to know that first. Gilt brass is about $200 - many of those were sold by LucklyMoney, but I have not seen any silver plated set going for low price.

Of course, silver content does not matter - what matters is mintage. Hipanda - you seem very confident about low value of silver plated pagoda set - maybe you can answer this ?

Offline Obsidian

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2012, 01:13:51 AM »
I've seen it reported that a forum member paid that price.  I dont believe it.

I havent seen that rumored member here posting for a while, either.  If they want to come on and admit to paying that amount, I'd be first shocked.

Possibilities:
1) they got one of the few REAL solid limited sets in circulation. They are giggling to themselves quietly still about their great buy. And yet knowledgeable buyers and sellers have since passed on prices from 20k, 15k, 10k, 5k, 4k.
Hard to believe that scenario, in a market of people who know what's what. Clark, KJ, many many others.
Or:
2) they got a common plated set, and they know now they have been duped by the rah-rah cheerleading and pumping that was going on then.  They overpaid by over $20,000 and they are embarrassed, but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn.
Or:
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam. Would a dealer stretch the truth about the price they sold a set at, in a perceived hot market with a perceived limited edition?  I dont have to tell you the answer to that if you are an adult.


I have no idea if the set they got was silver or plated, etc.  It is possible they don't know.  "but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn."  My guess this is possible.

All I can say is according to both parties to the transaction, it did occur.  That much I can confirm based on conversations with both parties.  Of course I can't make you believe  :001_tongue:


And of course one extreme sale has little to do with the actual value of the set after so many lower sales since.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 01:17:18 AM by Obsidian »

Offline comeaux

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2012, 01:16:58 AM »
3) there was no real sale at that price.  It was a manufactured hype event. a scam.




Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2012, 01:26:06 AM »
Good question, Shibaji !

We know that the Pagodas and Goldfish have many similarities.  
First, they are medals, not coins, and thus not controlled at the same standard as coins, with no real mintage restrike restrictions.
Second, same (arguable) year of first introduction, 1984.
Third, sent out in same dealer boxes.  
Fourth, rumors of plated coins in Goldfish was confirmed relatively early.  Also existence of early guilt brass sets, and later guilt brass sets, perhaps in nothing like limited edition, and also silver plated sets, with many many sets going for under $100. They may still be making them.
Fifth, finally, after endless denials from pagoda fans, the reluctant admitting that there exist plated silver sets, and brass sets, and guilded sets.  Perhaps from many years later than 1984, in unknown quantities. Maybe still being made.

Truth is we have no idea still at this point in time, which sets are solid, which sets are silver plated, and which sets were from 1984, and which sets are restrikes.  There is no way restrike plated sets are worth anything close to solid original sets. Since the goldfish plated restrikes recent edition are gong for under $100, my estimate of $200 allows for imperfect information still resulting in overvaluation of current plated restrikes. Like the goldfish, except figuring buyers still haven't caught on yet.  Just my 2 cents.  I'd ask Poconopenn for his latest assessment.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:49 AM »
Does NGC have a warranty for misgraded coins/medals?  (Yes they do)  If NGC graded silver plate pagodas then how many other MCC are phony?   I trust poconopen's opinion but I will trust NGC to accurately grade MCC.  Hipanda, is your argument with NGC?  Your fear is taking away your ability to reason.  I have read all the arguments for and against.  For me it is obvious.  NGC may have graded a set of silver plate pagodas.  That does not mean all are plate.  With the money back warranty, can't the owner send his pagodas back to NGC for review?  Restrikes would mean more pagodas getting graded and they could be identified like the goldfish restrikes were.  That has not happened and they have been studied by many.  NGC has studied the pagodas and their information is now accurate.  Hipanda, NGC cannot convince you, only poconopen can.  So lets have poconopen give his 2 cents on this intelligent conversation.............Bottom line, very low mintage, heavily studied, rare and real w/ former high prices.  They are undervalued........

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2012, 01:49:58 AM »
Hipanda -

Hmmm ... you have said a lot of things, but no direct answer to my question. Again, being plated does not mean those would not be valuable. You are relating abundant silver plated goldfish sets to hard to find silver plated pagodas. So, it is all speculation. If this is true, you are guilty of the same fault as pandamoium is - just from the reverse direction :-)

Based on the information that was obtained so far for population, this is the order (from rarest to most abundant):

1. brass
2. silver plated
3. silver
4. gilt brass

So, based on this, silver plated should not be less valuable. It is a completely different aspect whether a set is mislabeled as silver for silver plated, but that itself cannot be cause of less valuation.

Please, do not speculate to keep other speculations in check :-)

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2012, 02:15:41 AM »
Shibaji-

That list is not correct, per se.

The reason was evident a few weeks ago when a brass pagoda set was up for sale. The reason it didnt set records?
Why didn't it sell for over $25,000, according to your thinking? It was the rarest, right?

It was a restrike brass set.

There have evidently likely been multiple restrikes, possibly of each type. Now that kind of throws a curveball into how to value them, eh?
So no, a silver plated restrike set would not be worth more than an original solid silver set, anymore than a newer, non-original plated restrike Basel Panda with only 400 minted would be worth more the original in gold.  And yes, mislabeling silver for silver plated can be cause of less valuation. Its what's happening now as people are realizing their sets may likely be plated, and dumping them.

I'd like to hear from Gilmore, who is about the most honest seller lately I have seen, who is actually selling plated sets listed as plated.

"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2012, 02:33:41 AM »
If NGC graded silver plate pagodas then how many other MCC are phoney?.

Many are phoney, and many like the pagodas are still not fully understood. Read Poconopenn's assessment of the NGC article.  In his opinion, and mine, NGC does not still fully understand the pagodas.

NGC still has problem in this pagoda set. The reverse of this set may have the same design, but definitely has some very minor and subtle differences. The broken line is just one of the differences.

LOL- I have no fear interefering with my ability to assess this as I have no investment to try and protect at all costs, like some current owners of Pagodas who are desparately clinging to anything that might justify higher prices, ignoring many reasonable questions being brought forward.  And NGC is coming late to the party, I have zero confidence in them today, understanding what they have certified, and I don't think their information is now accurate. They have "been studied by many" but still not fully understood. Nobody yet has put dates and numbers on the various restrikes. 
Yes they guarantee, so go ahead and gamble if you think they'll pay up despite technicalities.
Good luck. Maybe you have one of the real original ones. I hope so.  How can you tell again?



"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline shibaji

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2012, 02:58:03 AM »
Hipanda-

I really cannot understand your convoluted talk. What does this even mean : "There have evidently likely been multiple restrikes, possibly of each type" ? Possibly/evidently/likely does not mix together.

Did you even check the prices for the brass pagoda sells ? Those went for $1375 each set, and were graded 66/67. Why are you even comparing with $25k ?! Everyone knows that was high mark and one time thing. Based on your valuation of $250 for silver plated pagoda, shouldn't brass panda sell for $20 ?

Unbelievable!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2012, 03:03:54 AM »
I have no idea if the set they got was silver or plated, etc.  It is possible they don't know.  "but they are rich enough to weather it so live and learn."  My guess this is possible.

All I can say is according to both parties to the transaction, it did occur.  That much I can confirm based on conversations with both parties.  Of course I can't make you believe  :001_tongue:


And of course one extreme sale has little to do with the actual value of the set after so many lower sales since.

The set that sold for $25,000 is a true silver set, I sold it in March of 2011 for $2,000 in PF69 to cash360 and a couple more at roughly the same price to other passionate pagoda collectors, he flipped it for $25,000 a few months later, it really did happen.  Before all the pumping on the forum in the late spring and early summer of 2011 the silver sets were very common and could be had for $500-$700.  This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.  

To give you an idea of how speculative the market was I will give you short history of the prices that I witnessed or participated in during last two years.  Fall of 2010 through January of 2011, raw silver sets were $600-$700 and plated sets $300-$400, March of 2011 sold out my few PF69 sets for $2000-$3000, prices moved up fast because 2-3 collectors wanted to own these sets aggressively, May-July 2011 the promoting began and prices started to climb, I got offers of $4,000, $5,000, $8,000 for these PF69 sets, but I didn't have any to sell, then a PF69 set sold for $25,000, now those that were trying to buy from me flipped and tried to sell to me at $25,000, $15,000, $10,000 during August of 2011, I passed, but transactions did occur in July-September time frame around $12,000-$8,000 for PF69 sets, based on what I know the second highest transaction for that silver set was for $12,000, a few weeks after the $25,000 set sold, I finally found a set in November of 2011 and sold it for $6,000, then prices continued to drop, in the spring of 2012 prices bottomed at $4,000, in the summer a few more traded at $4000 plus or minus $300 and last transaction was also around $4000 about two months back.  

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.  

Arif

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2012, 09:45:54 AM »
Thanks for the reply Arif.   The question of mintage is unanswered for many early MCC.  It will be interesting as the pagodas are studied more in China.  Mr. Ge gives the pagodas 4 stars out of 6.  Very high rating and higher than early silver pandas.  Even the 1985 10 Y 1 oz Sinkiang Autonomy gets 3 stars and a higher price today.  What does he say in his new book?  I will stick to 260 mintage until more information comes available.  If ever.  When I look at prices of the 1995 micro date silver panda 69 priced at about $4k w/ about 4,000 mintage, as an example, then the pagodas w/ 260 mint are way undervalued.  Even IF they had 1000 mintage then they are undervalued.  When prices rise on the pagodas then maybe more will be graded.  Time will tell.  Until then, I believe it is 260 mintage.  This pagoda debate may be applied to other early silver MCC as the mintage, restrikes, varieties, etc are debated in the future. .............Poconopen, could you comment on this topic when you get the chance?.............

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #30 on: December 12, 2012, 09:51:40 AM »
Arif,
Yet another great piece of analysis.  I'm glad to have your input on NGC population in general and the Pagoda in specific.  I'm a recent student of NGC population, and I find your analysis both informative and enlightening.   I myself am more interested in the enumerated study of individual coins and individual types, looking for varieties, understanding the lumpiness of distribution (dealer vs investor).   My schtick is "stock vs flow"--total population is important, but just as important is the rate of increase and quality (grade) of the incoming.

As for Pagoda, I like them, collect them.  I'm in the early part of my accumulation phase.  I don't mind falling price, in fact, I welcome them.  :sneaky2:

Offline Utah3

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #31 on: December 12, 2012, 12:52:38 PM »
New commenter here,

 We can use NGC population numbers many times to determine rarity, but not always. It is good to use with other criteria.  Each coin/set has its own story. The 1984 silver Pagoda population numbers could be reflecting.

1. There was a large 30-40 Pagoda set hoard graded about 18 months ago. You take the hoard out of the population what do you have?

2. It has been said on this thread these sets sold for $200-300 quite recently. Then they shot up to $5000-$10,000 quite quickly. I'd imagine most available   supply was found and graded for the high dollars. People will get expensive sets graded to verify authenticity. This could account partly for the higher population. It has been stated on this thread no new sets have been graded since July 2012. What does that say??

3. A large number of sets graded compared to the mintage might mean the they were retained because they were known to be rare and popular.  Example the 1909 S VDB Lincoln cent has a higher NGC population because of its popularity than many less rare Lincoln cent coins.

Just some ideas to think about.

I am a believer that they are a rare set with a good future.

Hopefully with the NGC announcement their mystery will subside

Thanks
utah3


Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #32 on: December 12, 2012, 01:13:42 PM »
This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.

I call that portfolio an "anti-fragile" portfolio  N31 Very well-said, Arif.

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #33 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:13 PM »

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.   

Arif


You make a very logical and sound argument to estimate that the pagodas' mintage is 1000+ which still constitutes a rare medal. However, all it takes is one or two circumstance to throw off your argument off course. A hoard of 30-50 pagodas sets owned by one dealer for one reason or another could explain the disproportional excess of graded pagodas. 

Disclaimer: I own pagodas,and I enjoy owning them

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #34 on: December 12, 2012, 01:47:56 PM »
New commenter here,

 We can use NGC population numbers many times to determine rarity, but not always. It is good to use with other criteria.  Each coin/set has its own story. The 1984 silver Pagoda population numbers could be reflecting.

1. There was a large 30-40 Pagoda set hoard graded about 18 months ago. You take the hoard out of the population what do you have?

2. It has been said on this thread these sets sold for $200-300 quite recently. Then they shot up to $5000-$10,000 quite quickly. I'd imagine most available   supply was found and graded for the high dollars. People will get expensive sets graded to verify authenticity. This could account partly for the higher population. It has been stated on this thread no new sets have been graded since July 2012. What does that say??

3. A large number of sets graded compared to the mintage might mean the they were retained because they were known to be rare and popular.  Example the 1909 S VDB Lincoln cent has a higher NGC population because of its popularity than many less rare Lincoln cent coins.

Just some ideas to think about.

I am a believer that they are a rare set with a good future.

Hopefully with the NGC announcement their mystery will subside

Thanks
utah3



LOL I did not see your post until I posted mine LOL LOL

Offline Obsidian

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #35 on: December 12, 2012, 01:58:18 PM »
I believe a fairly large portion of the Pagoda population are owned by members of this forum.  Primarily due to the promoting and discussion on the forum.  Not sure what my point is but kind of interesting.  I guess it seems a bit risky to pay a lot for coins owned and advertised by such a small group of people.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #36 on: December 12, 2012, 02:26:01 PM »
Utah3........I agree.   The previous high price brought out most sets for grading.  For me the 260 mintage is accurate..........

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #37 on: December 12, 2012, 02:52:17 PM »
New commenter here,
Welcome utah3, a fellow Pagoda enthusiast!

We are a friendly forum, but Pagoda has been a hotly debated topic over and over again.  It is a very hot button issue for a lot of people, so have your "flame" resistant armor on.  You may want to do a search on "pagoda" and read throught some of the 140 posts to get a flavor of the debate.  I want to extend a warm welcome to you and apologize up front if you received one or more flaming hot reception in the topic of Pagoda.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #38 on: December 12, 2012, 03:13:55 PM »
Disclosure:  I rather like the Pagoda medals- so much so that I have had three deals to acquire them, but in each case they turned out to be restrikes and the owners didn't
Know it, and I wasn't about to pay $25k, 10k, 8k, 4k,
Or even 1k for them until further information is known.

In my case, I'm glad I didn't rush into these.
May you be happy with whatever price you paid, and with whatever you think you have.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #39 on: December 12, 2012, 03:18:49 PM »
May you be happy with whatever price you paid, and with whatever you think you have.
If that comment is addressed to me, I thank you for your well wishes.  I also thank NGC for their guarantee.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #40 on: December 12, 2012, 03:39:28 PM »
The set that sold for $25,000 is a true silver set, I sold it in March of 2011 for $2,000 in PF69 to cash360 and a couple more at roughly the same price to other passionate pagoda collectors, he flipped it for $25,000 a few months later, it really did happen.  Before all the pumping on the forum in the late spring and early summer of 2011 the silver sets were very common and could be had for $500-$700.  This pumping or promoting or fortune telling is one of the reason I stay away from giving opinions about future to the masses (public comments), instead I rather spend time helping investor build a portfolio of coins (similar to what I own for myself) that will do well in a bull, bear or flat market relative to other tangible assets or help collectors find coins they desire.  

To give you an idea of how speculative the market was I will give you short history of the prices that I witnessed or participated in during last two years.  Fall of 2010 through January of 2011, raw silver sets were $600-$700 and plated sets $300-$400, March of 2011 sold out my few PF69 sets for $2000-$3000, prices moved up fast because 2-3 collectors wanted to own these sets aggressively, May-July 2011 the promoting began and prices started to climb, I got offers of $4,000, $5,000, $8,000 for these PF69 sets, but I didn't have any to sell, then a PF69 set sold for $25,000, now those that were trying to buy from me flipped and tried to sell to me at $25,000, $15,000, $10,000 during August of 2011, I passed, but transactions did occur in July-September time frame around $12,000-$8,000 for PF69 sets, based on what I know the second highest transaction for that silver set was for $12,000, a few weeks after the $25,000 set sold, I finally found a set in November of 2011 and sold it for $6,000, then prices continued to drop, in the spring of 2012 prices bottomed at $4,000, in the summer a few more traded at $4000 plus or minus $300 and last transaction was also around $4000 about two months back.  

The more interesting question for me is what is the mintage of the silver pagodas, is it 70 (bottom of the barrel has been reached?), 260 (published number on a brown piece of paper that 4th grader could photocopy an exact replica), 1000 (mintage estimate compared to silver HK medal), 2000 (mintage estimate compared to silver 15g rat), .... A simple way to compare two coins relative occurrence in the US market is to look at NGC populations, take a look at pop for the 1984 1oz silver HK panda medal and a 1984 silver pagoda medal, as of today there have been 70 HK medals graded and 67 of each type of silver pagoda, roughly equal number have been graded.  As a starting point I would estimate roughly the same number of each coin exist assuming similar distribution patterns (distributed in China or Germany vs US, US coins are more likely to end up in NGC holders) and collector desirability (more desirable coins will be graded more often than less desirable bullion coins or brass coins), if I use the HK medal published mintage as the yard stick and neglect distribution and desirability metrics, I would conclude the mintage for both is roughly 1000.  You can play this relative analysis game all day long and compare different coins (try with the 15g silver rat, 350 of them vs 70 pagodas, the rat revised mintage is 10,592, multiply his number by 1/5 (70/350) and you get 2000 mintage estimate for pagodas), and on and on.  At end you will have a bunch of relative estimates of the mintages and then you have to ask yourself the million dollar question, should I pay $6000 for a single PF69 pagoda coin or pay $3000 for PF69 HK medal or $1000 for PF69 Rat (these prices were all based on July 2011), or in today's dollars $1200 for a single PF69 pagoda coin, $1400 for PF69 HK medal or $1200 for PF69 Rat. To answer this question I will save the analysis for another time, hint is you need to consider the relative collector base for each of these types of coins and look at PF69 pops, not total pops, since the prices I gave were PF69 prices not weighted average prices based on grade distribution.  

Arif

\

Excellent overview of last two years about this pagoda set.

Please revisit the email from NGC to panda express in the following posting.

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.795

And thread by RAREMEDAL,

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=6379.0

The new article from NGC has not address the issues discussed in this forum at all. NGC has not give out any additional information about those sets. What is the weight of each medal? When the plated medal and brass was produced? How many versions of silver plated and brass medal produced by China Mint? IMO, many silver plated and brass medals in the market were not produced in 1984 by China Mint. Can NGC detect the difference of original 1984 silver plated and brass set from re-strike set minted in a later year? Unlike coin which has denomination and legal tender of China, re-strike of medal by Mint does not require a prior approval from Bank of China. This is the major reason that the commemorative medal always has a lower value than coin produced for the same theme, even the mintage of medal may be lower than coin.

Most of four medal connected pouch set, recently sold in the market, are silver plated, except one which, IMO, is genuine silver set sold by Xu Hong. Those 4-medal pouched sets were sealed recently and most likely were re-striking silver plated by China Mint. However, I will not rule out the potential of fake silver plated sets with the same package in the market.

Since NGC had graded so many silver pagoda sets prior to have sufficent and reliable information, such as weight of medal, the chance was good that some of graded sets may not be genuine silver. IMO, NGC ought to recall all graded sets to re-authentic them. Until this is done, IMO, the risk of purchasing a graded set is just as great as purchasing a raw set, unless you are knowledgeable enough to know the differences of silver, original silver plated, re-strike silver plated and fake.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #41 on: December 12, 2012, 04:02:07 PM »
Thank you, poconopenn.  It is very well stated.

I like to add if I may, that NGC certification is an insurance policy.  Should I chose to sell 10-15 years later when presumably the dust is settled, I will first present these slabs for NGC review.  Should those slabs turn out to be cheaper silver plated, NGC will compensate me appropriately.  I may not have the silver pagoda all along, but my investment is covered.  Having the downside covered, I'm content with the uncertainly at present.

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #42 on: December 12, 2012, 04:10:26 PM »
Thank you, poconopenn.  It is very well stated.

I like to add if I may, that NGC certification is an insurance policy.  Should I chose to sell 10-15 years later when presumably the dust is settled, I will first present these slabs for NGC review.  Should those slabs turn out to be cheaper silver plated, NGC will compensate me appropriately.  I may not have the silver pagoda all along, but my investment is covered.  Having the downside covered, I'm content with the uncertainly at present.

Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.


exchange

Offline dynamike51

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #43 on: December 12, 2012, 04:17:26 PM »
Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.


exchange

exchange:

You have no need to worry since you keep all your coins in OMPs and their beautiful boxes.   :thumbup: :001_tt1:

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #44 on: December 12, 2012, 04:21:12 PM »
exchange:

You have no need to worry since you keep all your coins in OMPs and their beautiful boxes.   :thumbup: :001_tt1:

It's just something to think about. We have seen so many companies that were in business for decades vanish over the last 10 years. Relying on a private business to still be around or have the same policies in such a time frame may not be a good bet.

If you are going to buy graded coins and medals, make sure you know what you are getting, don't rely on the grading company to come to the rescue. That could be a false sense of security.

sincerely,
exchange
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 04:28:14 PM by exchange »

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #45 on: December 12, 2012, 04:58:40 PM »
Providing NGC is still around in 15 years or that their policy does not change.
A valid concern, however if that's the only risk of substance, then (strictly speaking for myself) I am well contented with the upside/downside trade off.  I'm not going to sleep for 10-15 years.  Such risk will be monitored and managed.

Offline exchange

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #46 on: December 12, 2012, 05:10:51 PM »
"After careful research including consultation with several Chinese mints, NGC acknowledges that all four metal types were officially minted. As a result, NGC will now accept all four metal types for certification".

"NGC currently employs more than 20 full time coin graders. Among them are the most skilled and acclaimed professionals in the field, making the NGC team the greatest assemblage of coin graders in history"


And this is what they came up with regarding the pagodas sets?

This could of been an opportunity for NGC to settle the score with the Pagodas. An opportunity to take the lead and show the collecting community NGC is on top of its ball game.

To me it means NGC still does not know much about the pagodas and that they do not want to commit to the brand. NGC knew very well the "detailed" concerns of CMC collectors when it came to the Pagodas sets. The Chinese coin forum made sure to make those concerns loud and clear.


sincerely,
exchange
« Last Edit: December 12, 2012, 05:14:35 PM by exchange »

Offline NBM

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #47 on: December 12, 2012, 05:24:42 PM »
"After careful research including consultation with several Chinese mints, NGC acknowledges that all four metal types were officially minted. As a result, NGC will now accept all four metal types for certification".

"NGC currently employs more than 20 full time coin graders. Among them are the most skilled and acclaimed professionals in the field, making the NGC team the greatest assemblage of coin graders in history"


And this is what they came up with regarding the pagodas sets?

This could of been an opportunity for NGC to settle the score with the Pagodas. An opportunity to take the lead and show the collecting community NGC is on top of its ball game.

To me it means NGC still does not know much about the pagodas and that they do not want to commit to the brand. NGC knew very well the "detailed" concerns of CMC collectors when it came to the Pagodas sets. The Chinese coin forum made sure to make those concerns loud and clear.


sincerely,
exchange

+1

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2012, 05:35:26 PM »
Questions concerning the pagodas can be answered by contacting NGC   mcorley@ngc.coin.com         I do not think they want to put alot of information on their press release.   The bronze, silver plate and gilt have been rumored to have restrikes.  The real silver pagodas have no restrikes that i know of.   NGC read many CCF articles concerning them that I forwarded.  Their point of view was puzzlement.  Why all the hoopla over one chinese medal?   IF the pagodas have problems than I think many other early MCC have problems too.  No one on this forum can answer your questions.  So please contact NGC and see what answer you can come up with then share that with us....................

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2012, 06:01:31 PM »

 A hoard of 30-50 pagodas sets owned by one dealer for one reason or another could explain the disproportional excess of graded pagodas.  


You are correct that several hoards of sets could were submitted by a few collectors/investors, my estimate is roughly a total of 25 sets among three collectors/investors is likely.   But this is fairly common for Chinese coins to have hoards come out and be added to NGC population in a short period of time.  In 2011 I had opportunity to buy 18x 1984 1oz HK medals (mintage 1000) in Sept 2011 and 11x 1984 1oz HK medals (mintage 1000) in Nov 2011 - all these were graded by the dealers after he wasn't satisfied with the offers received.  In summer of 2010 I bought 50x 1989 3.3oz god of wealth silver medal (mintage 2430), 28x 1987 3.3oz gold of longevity silver medals (mintage 1800) and 80x 1995 maritime silver sets (mintage 3000), the graded pops double and tripled very quickly but over the years more and more coins still came out. In 2008 I tried to get a 1995P 1oz silver panda in PF70 to overtake LarryD registry proof silver set, I bought 5 sheets of 1995 proofs and graded them, got 48x PF69 and 2x PF68 (the collector that owns the pop 1 PF70 coin submitted just one coin), but in the process doubled the PF69 population in a month, from 50 to a 100, now few years later the PF69 pop is 242, which for 7000 mintage coin is roughly 5%-6% total mintage being graded to date.  This coin has been very popular for 7 years now and still only 5%-6% of the population has been graded.  For the 1984 HK medal, roughly 7% of the total population has been graded, it too has been popular for at least 7 years.  For the 1985 94th ANA Great Wall coin 4% of the mintage has been graded (19 out 500 stated mintage). Using this 4%-7% rules as a metric, one could divide the 67 pagoda graded by 0.04 and 0.07 to get an estimated mintage range of 1,675 to 957 for the pagodas.  Next one could say that on average 80% of the medals issued in the 1980s were melted or not distributed and arrive at low mintage numbers like 200-300, but if you do that haircut for pagodas a similar magnitude haircut is warranted for HK medals and ANA great wall medals - so the conclusion is almost all Chinese coins from 1979-2006 are very rare, until another hoard comes out to spook everyone for a short period of time and then supply disappears as quickly as it appeared.

I like pagoda sets as much as the next guy in Utah (welcome Utah3), however when I bid on them (NGC pop 67) I bid with an mintage in mind that is more like the 84 HK medal (1000 mintage, NGC pop 70) than a coin that is twice as rare as the 85 ANA great wall medal (500 mintage, NGC pop 19).  I think it will take at least another 20-30 years to get a majority (over 50% of surviving pop) of all the coins out of people's safes and into NGC holders, some coins will never get graded simply because OMP collectors and coins are put away as a heirloom.

Arif

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2012, 06:37:11 PM »
Arif:  So we will never know the actual mintage or surviving population of most older MCC?  Let the market decide then.......

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2012, 06:53:05 PM »
Arif,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge with the forum!  I believe I know many of the items you've submitted en masse plus many other huge dealer submission in the middle of 2011.  There are many in the Invention & Discovery series that accounted for 70-90% of current population in one submission.  

I also like to share my own Pagoda population study with the forum.  Over the course of all these discussions, I've identified 56 set out of the 67 set in NGC population (actually not all pagoda are graded as set, but it is a very good approximation).  The NGC cert number increases monotoneously with respect to time, so once a few time marks are known (like the date of my own submissions) then the timeline of certification number can be nailed down.   However, NGC number sequence are different for on-line submission and mail-in pdf submission.  So I plot the know 56 set in two separate charts, one shows the chronological progression of the on-line submission, while the other shows the mail-in PDF submission.  The time marks are approximate, give or take 2 weeks.  Looking at the chart one can see the big hoards that Arif talking about around the spring/summer of 2011, then it taper off to one set at a time.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2012, 07:30:44 PM »
Arif:  So we will never know the actual mintage or surviving population of most older MCC?  Let the market decide then.......

I totally agree, we will never have absolute survival numbers and that is a good thing for a healthy market and debate.  Uncertainty creates opportunity and motivation for people to buy, sell and trade, if we all knew exactly what the key coins were, then the market would become too efficient for any of us to outsmart it over the long term.  We can thank the china mint poor record keeping, 20 year bear market in metals and a general dislike of Chinese coins by typical US coin collectors and US coin dealers. 

SANDAC - are NCS submission tracked by you, all my pagoda submissions were NCS submissions.  Also, be careful about assuming that serial numbers of NGC lots are sequential in time (unless all the arrows above refer to your own submissions), for example when I go to a show, I may grab a 50-100 submission forms and use them over the course of a year or two, by the time I used up the last submission form from that grab, the current serial number may be indexed up by 10000-20000.  Also, serial numbers starting with a 1 and 4 are possible from show submissions and NGC partitions (when a collector submits a 12oz coin with 1oz coin, the 12oz gets a separate number because it gets charged a oversize holder fee, or if you submit a $10K coins with $2K coins, NGC will divide the submission into two serial number, there are other reasons NGC divides serial numbers). 

Overall this is excellent data tracking, I have asked NGC for this data several times, but they simply do not store population trend data.

Arif

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #53 on: December 12, 2012, 07:57:41 PM »
We can thank the china mint poor record keeping, 20 year bear market in metals and a general dislike of Chinese coins by typical US coin collectors and US coin dealers. 
Well said!  Put a frame around the above sentence.  This is the executive summary of the MCC for the first 20 years and why they are such collectible today.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #54 on: December 12, 2012, 08:09:56 PM »
I believe the NCS numbers are converted to NGC number starts with "3" when they are moved from NCS to NGC.  The paper-based forms (the one with multiple carbon copies) seem to have changed over last year.  In the beginning it is the same number as the one printed on the form (start with "4"), but lately it seems to transfer to "3".  I'm uncertain about that.  I know each NGC number only go up to 500 coins, so a submission with over 500 coins gets splitted up.  I also know of many submissions of a single type of coin where one number is assigned all PF/MS67, next consecutive number is assigned all PF/MS68, and the next consecutive number is assigned PF/MS69, etc.  All in all, I think there are minor inconsistencies, but good enough for trend study.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #55 on: December 12, 2012, 08:46:47 PM »
One set of PF 69 silver pagodas sold today.  Another PF 69 set will have a part trade and cash offer as a new collector friend of mine wants to buy it.  I don't have a set of PF 69 and my stupid friends are buying more MCC than me!   Guess they are not stupid.   The pagodas are getting alot of attention now due to NGC's short article and information from forum members.  I thought the market would pick up slow but buyers are moving forward quickly.  Arif, you are a wealth of knowledge.  Keep posting your comments.........

Offline r3globe

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #56 on: December 12, 2012, 08:52:58 PM »
One set of PF 69 silver pagodas sold today.  Another PF 69 set will have a part trade and cash offer as a new collector friend of mine wants to buy it.  I don't have a set of PF 69 and my stupid friends are buying more MCC than me!   Guess they are not stupid.   The pagodas are getting alot of attention now due to NGC's short article and information from forum members.  I thought the market would pick up slow but buyers are moving forward quickly.  Arif, you are a wealth of knowledge.  Keep posting your comments.........

Jay's set SOLD! Yes, Arif's insight is amazing. I hope he keeps up the great contributions. I learned a lot from him.

Offline GDG's

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Re: NGC pagoda article
« Reply #57 on: December 12, 2012, 09:22:53 PM »
Sandac Quote,
>>>There are many in the Invention & Discovery series that accounted for 70-90% of current population in one submission. <<<

Soothsayers for sure. :001_tt2: :001_tt2: :001_tt2: