Author Topic: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair  (Read 21245 times)

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Offline Birdman

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #60 on: March 23, 2013, 12:27:20 PM »
That was my reaction as well when I first came across the dealer blind submissions.  I thought the submitter had an extraordinary eye and knew the exact boundary between 67/68/69/70 with 95%+ accuracy.  But when I started to see the same pattern repeating over and over again with different coin types (Panda, I&D, unicorn, sport theme), I realized the submitter (dealer) didn't sort the coins at all, he blindly submitted the whole batch and let NGC grader sort them, thus the term "dealer blind submission".
This is my interpretation of the data: dealer submitted 1000 coins; NGC graded them and assigned number and suffix to them with the lowest number representing the lowest grade group and next number representing the next higher grade group;  If a grade contained more than 500 suffix numbers, then it overflowed into next number.  So this is how 3764656-3764658 were assigned.  In the peer review step, these coins were internally reviewed by other graders.  As the result of the review, none was upgraded but 3 in 3764657 and 6 in 3764658 were down graded to PF69.  It would be interesting to buy these down graded coins and resubmit them.


SANDAC,  That hypothesis makes sense.  It is always nice when there is a logical explanation :)

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #61 on: March 23, 2013, 01:09:11 PM »
The correct term is "Pre-Screen" on the NGC submission form or "Bulk Submission" on PCGS submission form, typically available only to dealers, however large collectors can ask for it.  Anytime you have 100 or more coins of the same coin or 2-3 different coins max you can select "Pre-screen" box on the NGC submission form, which basically means it first gets sorted by a grader and then gets confirmed by a second grader.  This creates these skewed serial number lots of 95% of one grade and 5% of other grades.  Also you can specify minimum grades, for example for 1/2, 1/4, 1/10 and 1/20 I only want 69 and 70 coins slabbed, the reset returned to me in flips, that way I only pay for the coins that are slabbed and ones that didn't meet the minimum are free of charge expect for return shipping (60% of the submission must meet minimum grade in order to get those that don't meet minimum grade for free). 

For most modern Chinese coins it is often in ones best interest not to submit 35-100 of a given coin because makes population reports spike giving the impression the coin not as rare as it would be if one just did 5-10 coins per year.  I made this mistake in 2008 with 1995 1oz silver panda proof, the NGC PF69 population was 52 and I submitted 5 sheets and got 47x PF69 and instantly the population of PF69 doubled and prices plunged from $1200 to $650 over the next 3 months.  I had no intention of selling all 47x coins anytime soon, so I should have just submitted 1x sheet a year.  A similar mistake was made by major unicorn gold investor, he submitted rougly 100x 1oz gold unicorns in early 2011 when the market for them was hot, after the submission prices dropped very fast by 20%-30% in the next few months partly because the pops spiked and partly because demand for those types of coins was on the down trend. 

Arif

Offline SANDAC

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #62 on: March 23, 2013, 02:56:10 PM »
Thank you KeyDataPanda, Pre-Screened submission it is.  It sounds a lot better than "dealer blind submission".

Were you thinking of the 1995 1oz Unicorn when you mentioned the large submission of Unicorn by a major Unicorn gold investor?  The 1995 G100Y has a graded population of 110 out of 504 mintage (according to Mr. Ge) which is 22% graded.  I've noticed that coins with high percentage of graded vs mintage are caused by large dealer submissions, like Pagoda, 1993 S5Y Yin&Yang, and possibly the 1995 1oz Unicorn.  That's certainly the case for the 2013 Berlin World Fair.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2013, 12:52:40 PM »
There were probably 30+ 1oz 1995 1oz unicorns in the submission, he had saved them up for years and possibly a decade.  I remember auctions in 2008 where we would bid against each other on eBay to win 1996 1oz unicorns for $1100 each and then 2 years later prices for 69 coins were selling for $13,000.  He was collector, investor and dealer almost identical to my mindset, so he was never in a rush to sell until the market got crazy at which point he slabbed his entire inventory, which partly killed the market.  The biggest risk to price appreciation we face is large hoards of coins being dumped into the market or added to the pop reports very quickly. 

The best example of large hoard that really killed a market was in summer of 2011, approximately $3M of 1981-2008 silver lunars were consigned by one investor to a major US auction house, over the next year they tried to sell multiples of 15g, 1oz pieforts, 2/3 scallops, 5oz silver and 12oz silver lunar in each auction and after each auction the prices went down.  By summer of 2012 the hoard was finally sold out and no other hoards were known, since then prices have been firm and climbing, but it took almost 1.5 years to get back to a situation where demand exceeded supply in the market.  What is interesting about this story is two fold; a) there were a few dealers that tried to buy that hoard and would have slowly leaked the coins out over a few years and in retrorespect their offers with full immediate payment exceeded what the seller end up getting by selling via auction over the course of a year, b) some anonymous person emailed all the dealers warning them a large hoard of silver lunars (with almost exact quantities by animal and size) were going to hit the market about a month or two before the first auction, which attempted to spook many dealers from buying silver lunars at the time even though the market for them was red hot. Nobody knows who this anonymous person was, he used the email chinacoinstatistics.hotmail.com to send out his message, but never responded on who he was.  

Large hoards must be sold with care otherwise they can change the upward trend and even worse create panic selling for no reason. Getting back to the thread topic, it will be interesting to watch how these Berlin coins are sold, my guess (I don't follow the new issues, so this is just an opinion with no inside scoop) is they will be telemarketed in Europe at a high price and most likely you will never see many of them on eBay or major dealer sites, except for maybe 10-20% of the mintage. That would be the only explanation why a dealer would submit so many so fast.

Arif

Offline SANDAC

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2013, 03:34:10 PM »
What an interesting story of intrigue and cunning chess moves!

I noticed similar moves with the 2001D small D.  By my tally, there should be 70 or so "small D" in NGC population right now, but the number is quite a bit lower, so I think some savvy players are holding back to keep the population low.  This is another reason why detailed breakdown of NGC population data can be useful and profitable.  Coins with high graded population should be analyzed for large dealer submissions which can distort the market downward and which actually translates into a good buy right now.  I&D series come to mind, because much of its current population are due to the large pre-screened dealer submissions in summer of 2011.  http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=7637.0

Disclaimer:  I do own several set of I&D and continue to accumulate them whenever the price is right.

Offline Honus

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #65 on: March 25, 2013, 03:47:28 PM »
I think I'm going to start calling Arif "Yoda".
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline yej0001

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #66 on: March 25, 2013, 06:07:46 PM »
KeyDatePanda, thank you for sharing this historical perspective on how coin market work for less common varieties.  

What's you take on current Chinese panda silver coins?  Are 6-8 million annual production per killing the market, or good in a long run by drawing more people into collecting them, therefore eventually driving up pre-2010 issues?  


Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #67 on: March 26, 2013, 01:04:09 AM »
Large mintage of silver pandas from 2009-2013 is very healthy for the market of 2008 and prior because it shows that there is sufficient demand to absorb those high mintages.  The reason they are making so many is because they can sell them, the model is very similar to the US mint, they produce what they can sell not produce for the sake of producing.  Eventually demand for older issues will spike as more casual owners become addicted and want to complete the series sets.  At first you will see demand for the most common variety of a given year spike similar to what we are seeing in the gold panda market, then a few years later demand for the rarer variety will spike as collectors become more knowledgeable.  

There already have been several telemarketing programs in Europe to sell complete runs from 1983-2012 of silver pandas, from 1983-1985, 1987 they include the proof coins and from 1989-2012 the BU coins.  I am sure China will do similar series sets once the gold panda sets making is exhausted.  

Despite the above bullish outlook for pre 2008 silver pandas, I tend to not invest in silver pandas simply because it is too expensive for me to ship these coins in any reasonable volume to China.  

Arif
« Last Edit: March 26, 2013, 01:35:50 AM by KeyDatePanda »

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: New Panda to be released for the 2013 Berlin World Money Fair
« Reply #68 on: April 01, 2013, 02:05:57 AM »
Chinese dealers usually offer 2001 to current year silver Panda set,  rarely do full set.  This causes 90s underdog for many years,  early investetors are still underwater for 95/96/97 silver Pandas.  And 8million mintage is really hurting new investors,  2011/12/13 are selling at the same price in China.  If you bought any of them,  you most likely is underwater or barely break even.