Author Topic: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA  (Read 6620 times)

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Offline badon

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Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« on: October 28, 2008, 12:22:01 PM »
I've got a flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA. It was the runt of a large lot of them, and I never bothered to try to sell it because of the flaw. It's original double sealed, with the COA, and the panda side is perfect. The temple side has a 5mm hazy white spot in the upper left quadrant near the rim, with a piece of something in the center of the spot that has contaminated the coin. I'm thinking of selling it to someone to get them started in collecting pandas, but although it's rare, I don't think it's worth much because of the flaw. What do you all think such a coin is worth?

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #1 on: October 28, 2008, 07:57:37 PM »
Putting a value on a flawed coin is difficult. The rarity of the coin and the number of collectors wanting the coin are usually the major factors together with the eye-appeal of the coin in determining value. The 1996 proof is a somewhat scarce coin but definitely not a rare coin. A PCGS PR69 retails for around $300.00; a PCGS PR68 for around $200.00. A guess for your coin would be somewhere between $75 and $50.

Perhaps someone reading this forum would be interested and will make an offer to you.

PCGS has the free Collectors Universe Message Boards which includes a BUY/SELL/TRADE forum. There is no cost to list or sell. You might try listing the coin there. If it does not sell, it may be because it is priced too high and you can always lower the price and/or entertain a best offer.

There is also eBay.


Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2008, 12:32:18 AM »
With a mintage of only 8000, I've always thought of it as rare. Even thought they're readily available now, I don't think they will be in the future. I'm curious what coins you consider to be rare right now?

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2008, 05:42:11 AM »
To me, rare in coin collecting, means a coin which is very difficult to find at any price, which is not being hoarded. I'm positive that definition is not agreed to by all.

In my view, right now, none of the silver one ounce panda proofs (1983-1999) are rare by my definition. Without very much difficulty, I'm certain I could find one for sale. I feel the same way about the silver one ounce pandas (1989 - present).

Conditional rarity is another story for the above pandas. If I collected pandas graded by PCGS, today I would think all the proofs were rare in PR70DC grade. (To the best of my knowledge PCGS has never graded a proof panda PR70DC.) I would also believe that many of the siver pandas were rare in MS70. If I collected the same coins graded by NGC, I would not feel the same way.

My definition is of course not precise. What exactly do I mean by very difficult? How much does mintage count in determining rarity - my definition doen't make mention of it. Should it?

And as a USA based collector what may be very difficult for me may be easy for a coin dealer living in China.

Some points for possible further discussion. Can a modern coin with an actual mintage of 8,000 ever be considered rare? What if only 100 people now want to obtain that coin? But what if later 20 million collectors want it? Should it then be considered rare?

What do you think?








Offline pecus

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2008, 10:15:47 PM »
BobW:

It seems you're talking about the kind of scarcity associated with a unique painting, whereas for many people the relative scarcity, say, of lunar coins comes from the fact that there are many people [perhaps thousands] who want or may want to own one coin in a run of 500.  Aren't we just talking about degrees of scarcity--differences which are probably reflected in different prices?  Sure there are anomalies; but these are probably due to ignorance about the real number and demand for certain coins.

I'm looking for a 5 oz silver pig at the moment and would like to buy one very much.  But how much?  I know where one can find these "rare" coins, but the current price is too high in my opinion.  If I thought I'd never have another chance to get one, I'd probably consider paying more for what would be, in my view, a scarcer coin.

Owning one of 500 of anything that is an object of desire to a potential market of thousands is hard to do--because it is rare.  Not as rare as a Picasso, to be sure, but rare nonetheless.

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2008, 11:56:17 PM »


I agree with you that demand in relationship to rarity, is the primary factor in determining value. If a one ounce silver panda coin had the mintage of the five ounce silver pig that you desire, it's obvious the one ounce coin would cost more based on today's collector preferences.

But something else to consider in determining value, is how coins are collected. Many world collectors collect by type or KM number. There are relatively few date collectors. The rarest date in the dates that make up a specific KM run of coins may bring only a small premium over the most common. I do not believe the panda or lunar coins are collected that way. It seems to me that dates are very important for most panda and lunar coins.

I think potential markets should definitely be considered. But my experience has been that many times potential markets do not pan out or are slow to do so. It has also been my experience that those who are able to identify early a potential market that does pan out, do very well financially. I do hope that is so in your case. Most coins of China still have enormous price appreciation potential. I think the ones that will do best are those that are rare by my definition of rare.

To me the most pleasure in coin collecting comes from the hunt for a specific coin. The price is often irrelavent up to a point. If a coin I own appreciates in value, that is a most welcomed bonus. Like most collectors, I have found the ones that appreciate most are the ones that are most in demand. If a coin fits that description, it seldom is available later for less. So you just might want to obtain that 5 ounce silver pig now.



Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2008, 03:23:02 PM »
I agree that most coins of China still have enormous price appreciation potential. I wonder which coins you think will do best, that are rare by your definition of rare?

Offline pecus

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2008, 04:25:06 PM »
You ask a great question for those of us who have no clue whatsoever about reasons why certain lunar coins are more popular than others, except for relative mintage numbers and, I guess, widespread understanding of the importance of the dragon in things Chinese.  Here is where some knowledge of Chinese culture would probably be in order.  Why is the 12 oz silver lunar snake so much more in demand than any other 12 oz variety, even after taking into account its smaller mintage (but only 400 to 500)?  Why is the 5 oz silver pig the hardest 5 oz lunar to get, even harder, it seems than the 5 oz snake?  And the rooster seems more valuable as well, if not quite as much as the pig and snake. 

The value of pandas, on the other hand, seems to follow mintages more consistently than is the case with lunars--with some exceptions we all know about, such as the 1996 1 oz proof panda in relation to 1995 version.  And then there is our ignorance of the real mintages of the small and large date BU pandas.  Will we ever really know this important information?

One last observation: most of us, perhaps all, assume that because the Chinese population is so enormous, and because China is headed for world leadership economically (another huge IF) there must be a huge coin collecting society in China's future.  Here again, some knowledge of Chinese history and culture might help evaluate this all-important assumption.

An enigma inside a riddle?

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2008, 07:45:18 PM »
Qwasty:

I am a collector and think like most collectors. If I see a coin that I like, I will typically acquire it with minimal regard to its investment potential. Unlike an investor, I tend to reluctantly part with my acquisitions.

I do actively follow the coin market for China, the provinces of China, and Hong Kong.

If I were a long term investor, here is what I would likely consider acquiring.

1. In the above areas, full red bronze and copper coins from the nineteenth century are very difficult to find. Many coins that were at one time graded red by the third party services are no longer full red. Many are now red-brown especially the copper coins. This is true not only for China but also for just about all world countries. Certified coins that are still full red are already selling for large premiums.

2. I have never seen a true uncirculated 50 cent coin for sale for the province of Fengtien. I have seen one for sale called uncirculated but it had quite visible rub. There are many coins like this that may indeed exist but are closely held.

3. Most cast coinage for China and its provinces is very seldom seen in high grades. Unfortunately counterfeits are common and authentication is a must. This might be an area ripe for future appreciation. Collectors knowledgable in the area almost certainly will do well.

4. The early coins of Hong Kong (pre-1885) are at least scarce. The bronze one cent coins from this period are very difficult to find with eye-appeal in red or red-brown. Many are spotted and not all that attractive. The early 20 cent coins are very worth pursuing in high grades.

I'm sure there are many other areas with excellent potential. Research and study in these areas will very likely result in financial rewards in the future.

 

« Last Edit: November 01, 2008, 05:49:13 AM by BobW »

Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2008, 03:50:40 PM »
Thank you for your informative reply. It sounds like, from your research, you have found that the modern coins do not really qualify as rare, from your collector point of view, when compared with some of the older ones. Unfortunately, I know virtually nothing about pre modern chinese coins, but thanks to your info, I now have some leads to follow to learn more. Thanks again! Do you have any opinions about the modern coins?

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2008, 09:16:45 PM »
Qwasty,

I know very little about modern China coins other than the one ounce pandas which I believe to be a popular and fun coin to collect. The fact that the proof-like coins have a new design each year and are of superior quality is a huge plus and a rather inexpensive introduction to collecting the coins of China.

What I believe would help the popularity of both modern and classic China coins would be a specialized book or books which could provide reference information for the collector.

China's increasing wealth and prominance in the world will most certainly add to the popularity of its coins.

You may want to give consideration to building a type-set in the best grade you can afford. Personally, that is much more satisfying than building a date set of the same design. As a collector, always collect what you like. As an investor, knowledge, research, and a little luck is required.

Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #11 on: December 29, 2008, 06:17:59 PM »
Once again, that's great info. We need books, then we'll have a maturing market.

Offline SouthFl-Panda Lover

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2009, 12:37:28 AM »
Bob, every time I read your posts I have little to say but you are correct. There is one item that no one has brought up. Are the mintages published correct? It has always been my concern that numbers may not be correct. This 96 proof is a great example. They can always be found. I have to question was ther a 1 or 0 missed  :bored:?

Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2009, 08:58:05 PM »
I think there's no large mistake in the mintage numbers on the upside. There are a few coins that have MUCH lower mintages, however. Yes, the 1996 coins can still be found, but look at how few sales there are. If China did an advertising campaign for their coins, you would see them all disappear quickly. I think it's like that the only reason such rare coins are still available so cheaply is because they're still unknown. Also, very few people seem interested in changing that. I, for one, would like to have as much time as I can get to buy these things up before the word gets out.

Offline BobW

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2009, 12:25:28 AM »
I agree with Qwasty that it is unlikely that the panda mintage figures are understated. I believe that the gold panda mintage adjustments that were made around two years ago are highly accurate. Perhaps some day the China mint will release mintage revisions to the silver pandas.

Perhaps more important to the collector, is the answer to the question, "How many coins are still in existence?" In March 2008 when gold reached $1,000 an ounce, tens of thousands of gold coins were melted. I have not seen any data to suggest that large quantities of gold pandas were melted, but surely some were.

Similarly, large quantities of silver coins were melted in early 2008 and likely included some silver pandas.

In the future as precious metals rise in value, some panda coins will be melted. The impact on the "collectors' premium" above the melt value of the remaining pandas is debatable.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2009, 04:48:58 AM by BobW »

Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2010, 11:36:31 PM »
UPDATE: I ended up selling this coin for $90, which I thought was a pretty good price, and actually very close to what I paid for it. I got it as part of a set of other coins, and I think my cost for it was $110. If I had waited a while longer, I could probably have made a profit on it, even though it was flawed.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2010, 01:53:28 PM »
I have been told that quite a few gold Pandas were melted down by jewelers in the late 90's and thereafter while gold's price was low.  The melted gold was used to make more popular items. There was very low demand for gold Pandas at the time – look at the dwindling number of denominations offered. I would also – and this is just speculation on my part – not totally rule out the possibility that the Chinese Mint melted some gold coins down themselves because retail demand was so low.
Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com/

Offline badon

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Re: Flawed 1996 1 oz silver proof panda with COA
« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2010, 03:19:43 PM »
I'm sure that affected the small size coins more than the others, if it was jeweler's doing most of the melting.