Author Topic: Recent Jim Rogers  (Read 2222 times)

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Offline GDG's

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Recent Jim Rogers
« on: August 27, 2012, 01:54:42 PM »
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8wLlWJTh7o

Jim is such a staunch believer in Asian economic power he moved to Singapore a few years back. I'll continue to collect MCC.

Offline badon

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Re: Recent Jim Rogers
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2012, 01:25:28 AM »
That was a fantastic video. I wish you had given a better description of it, I think more people would have watched it. Jim Rogers said it like it was, and the UK interviewer kept pressing Jim Rogers to retract his opinion that the West is in a steady decline while the East is in a steady rise.

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Re: Recent Jim Rogers
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2012, 01:49:09 AM »
Not so fast...

I like Jim.  Over the LONG run, I think he is pretty right-on.

BUT ... China has problems.  Only fools believe their state released data.  Sorry, Badon, didn't mean to imply you believed it.

LOTS of manipulation there. The short term has many issues. Take it with a grain of salt. There will be peaks and valleys.



Offline badon

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Re: Recent Jim Rogers
« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2012, 01:51:54 AM »
I agree, but I think he's right that China is getting better while the West is getting worse. The peaks and valleys can obscure the trend, though. You can certainly lose money in China, or make money in the West, either way.

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Re: Recent Jim Rogers
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2012, 02:19:15 AM »
I agree, ...You can certainly lose money in China, or make money in the West, either way.

Hey- ROCK SOLID committment, there ! WOW, such awesome fudging! Well done!   :thumbup1:

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Re: Recent Jim Rogers
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2012, 08:02:00 PM »
Although the long-term trend may be up for China, they are so dependant on the global economy, they may have worse problems in the near term, and that near term may outlast us, and Jim Rogers.
One thing for certain, large recent decreases in expected orders of iron ore, bodes poorly for China's economy.
Here's one analysis I ran across:

Fitzpatrick also added:  “We believe the Shanghai or Chinese stock market is now breaking through the last vestiges of support (see chart below).  If we do push decisively through this area, around 2,050 on the composite, we think there is a real danger that it could open up the way to take us all the way back to the lows that were posted in 2008, around 1,665, or an additional plunge of roughly 19% on the Shanghai Index.

If we get a close through this support, then the bias would be for an acceleration to the downside.”

At the end of the day, we already know that the European economy is struggling, and even Germany’s economic data beginning to shake a little bit.  The US is also struggling and consumer confidence numbers have already deteriorated.  

So the message across the board seems to be that of weakness, and we see this with the poor performance of what we would call economic commodities such as copper, and the likes of iron ore shipments collapsing.  Across markets and indicators, we definitely see warning signs that suggest the growth dynamic right across the spectrum seems to be one that is beginning to struggle again.”

From Tom Fitzpatrick’s latest report:

The Shanghai composite has now moved decisively below the 76.4% retracement of the 2008-2009 bounce at 2,093 and is testing downward sloping trend line support at 2,051.  These developments are increasing our bias that we can see this index all the way back to the 2008 low at 1,665. (19% below present levels)

As the financial crisis hit in 2008-2009 China was in good shape given its growth and export dynamics leading to large surpluses.  In addition its Equity and property markets had performed well.  While the Shanghai composite fell sharply in 2007-2008, it bounced over 100% into August 2009.  However since then it has struggled and is now over 40% below that peak and about 66% below the 2007 peak.

Inflation (CPI) has been dropping sharply (Albeit Food and energy price concerns are growing).  PPI is actually back in negative territory (Minus 2.9% YoY)

Housing/property markets are struggling and economic growth projections while still elevated have been revised down.

Despite all this we constantly hear commentary that China is “going to save us all” with renewed stimulus. (Like Japan did after its bubbles burst???)

The backbone of Chinese growth has been its export market and the developed World has been the primary demand engine for this.  It is increasingly obvious that the developed World is not getting back on the “normal growth path” people expected.  Europe is in or heading towards recession in most instances and US growth is sluggish at best.

Because of its starting point China has been able to “buy time” awaiting the developed World recovery on the back of various monetary/fiscal stimulus programs.

Is it time to entertain the idea that China is “running out of time”.  The months ahead will likely tell but the charts above are giving us rising cause for concern.  If correct that would likely make China more reluctant to allow its currency to strengthen and provide a potential feedback loop of weaker regional currencies.