Author Topic: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas  (Read 16653 times)

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Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2012, 02:36:19 PM »
How many pagodas are for sale?  I see on ebay, one silver set in China and a gilt copper.  Clark Smith had one but it is sold.  Any others?.....................

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #31 on: June 22, 2012, 09:16:54 PM »
Clark Smith had a PF 68 Zhenjue for $850 which sold in a few days.  Many other MCC w/ higher mintage than the pagodas are selling for much more.  I agree that at some point soon the market should turn up for the pagodas, the mintage is low and quality high.  Everyone is searching for that rare undervalued MCC and I think it is right in front of us.  Still waiting for NGC's message which will probably be mostly known information.............

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2012, 09:33:26 PM »
This morning I was in contact with NGC regarding the pagoda medals. I received news which were not officially released. Since they did not ask me to keep quiet I guess it is OK to share it.

As of last week they have have confirmed 4 varieties of these medals: silver, silver plated brass, gilt brass and just brass. Any of these will be gradable after metal testing and the criteria met. Once they have all these variates in to grade they will released an official announcement. So far they got the silver, silver plated and a gold gilt set. I will send them a brass set next week for analysis so they could complete the research.

Hopefully we will have the official news soon...

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2012, 09:37:39 PM »
When their announcement comes out, the first thing I'm going to look at are the reverses. The question of whether there are broken line and unbroken line varieties hasn't been settled yet. I'm guessing that the newly certified varieties you mentioned will add some more credibility to the idea that there might be genuine varieties.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2012, 09:59:50 PM »
Any other infomation Gilmore?  Since NGC metal tests the coins, how can the graded pagodas today be fake or plate?   It seems the silver plate may be the rarest but will wait till we hear from them.  Does anyone have a silver plate pagoda w/ photos?   Bottom line....coins are metal tested for content so the existing graded pagodas have a large probability of being geniune silver.  Does NGC warranty their graded coins?  With the information we have, will any of NGC's announcement be surprising?  At this point, I am pretty well convinced that the graded pagodas are genuine and one of the most undervalued MCC due to low mintage.  Are we headed to BUE?........

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2012, 10:02:02 PM »
Any other information Gilmore? 

This is all I received.

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #36 on: June 22, 2012, 10:17:59 PM »
They don't test all the coins, just the ones they think are suspicious. The 2 fake sets they graded were graded early, before they had seen enough of them to know what a suspicious coin looks like. All the other graded pagodas are probably genuine, but there is at least one more that I'm uncertain about.

Yes, NGC guarantees their coins, but there are a few important limitations to the guarantee, so read it carefully:

http://www.ngccoin.com/services/writtenguarantee.asp

I think some of NGC's info will be surprising. One thing we may be surprised about is the rarity of some of the pagoda types. I'm not sure if they'll be rarer than the solid silver ones we already know about with a 260 mintage, but the fact that NGC has not already seen a brass set is telling that they're probably rare. Cross your fingers and hope that NGC determines they are genuine.

Any news about varieties, especially whole new types, is almost always positive for coin valuations. Next week will probably be exciting for the pagoda owners. I only wish that there were more of them on the market, so we can watch some price action. But, they're just too rare.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #37 on: June 22, 2012, 10:23:59 PM »
I am not sure about the rarity of the gold gilt or the brass. For example, we can see that gold gilt medals are available for sale however none were sent to NGC for grading up to now. They will receive a set next for the first time. I believe that once they announce that gold gilt and brass medals are gradable more of them will show up.


Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2012, 12:17:34 PM »
Here is summary of information, IMO, considered to be reliable for pagoda sets:

Silver (0.900 purity) coin weighs 22.2 gm.

Silver plated coin weights about 16.1 gm.

Gold plated coin weighs about 15.6 gm.

Copper (brass) coin weighs about 15.8 gm.

The tolerance of weight is about 1%, which is higher than official China Mint coins.

The silver and copper sets were minted in 1984, but plated sets might be made after 1990, based on the information posted in the Chinese websites. No weight information about fake silver and fake silver plated coins, but they are in the market place.

NGC had rejected 1 set of silver pagoda as “not genuine” (3493608-021-024).

IMO, two NGC graded sets, S20G (3299509-015-022) are highly questionable, may be reproduction of silver set (not plated).

Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2012, 12:40:41 PM »
I have seen one Kaiyuan pagoda coin with a connected line certified by NGC as 1984 S20 medal. The certification took place less than a year ago. I believe NGC (armed with badon's information) did some extra testing on it and was sent out for an outside expert. It came back certified as 1984 S20 and a high grade. For NGC, deciding whether it is sterling or plated should be very very easy and straightforward. They can assay it with a non-invasive device (i believe it is called a Spectrometer).

NGC can not test silver content accurately, if the coin is plated. See previous discussin in the following thread:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.765

Or the following article about ED-XRF in the website of British Museum.

http://www.britishmuseum.org/about_us/departments/conservation_and_science/research/scientific_techniques/x-ray_fluorescence.aspx



Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2012, 01:20:48 PM »
Here is an excellent book about metallurgical analysis of Chinese coins published by British Museum on line if you want to become an expert in ancient Chinese coins. It has more than 500 pictures of cash coins, covers more than  2000 years.

http://www.britishmuseum.org/pdf/RP%20152%20Metall%20Analysis%20Chinese%20coins-Prelims-Appendix.pdf

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2012, 12:21:56 AM »
I was told the grading companies have the tools to determine metal content in the coins.  Accuracy is a high priority for them.  From my email opinions, the conclusion is the graded silver pagodas are real silver and not plate.  Still waiting for a announcement in case I am wrong.  It will be interesting to see the final results of this entire debate.  Have learned alot.  One of the more informative topics on CCF that has perked interest in the pagoda and goldfish.  Have at least 2 more friends that want a pagoda as they have read many CCF articles............................

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2012, 03:05:03 AM »
Any suggestion/idea on what would be a fair market price for a full 69 silver pagoda set with original box ?

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2012, 03:54:42 AM »
I have not seen a full 69 set in quite a while, and I'm sure upward market price pressure is a lot higher now than it was at the time of the last sale. That's why everyone wants these super-rare coins, and it's the fundamental reason why they're good investments. Demand only needs to be slightly higher than supply, and prices just keep rising almost continuously for decades or even centuries - maybe longer. I can think of one coin that goes back about 2000 to 2500 years, and it has never stopped rising in price except during major wars, famines, etc.

This is why I like the coin market so much. Not only has it been somewhat weak for decades, but now that it has come back to life, it's going to outlive us all. The only reason the coin market was weak was because fools followed the "fiat buy-in" that began to dominate in 1964. That was actually a turning point for a lot of things.

The most common lifespan of a fiat currency is about 15 years. The whole world followed America down the path towards destruction of fiat wealth. All that will be left at the end are the same valuable coins that humanity has had faith in for thousands of years.

If I remember correctly, the last time I saw a pagoda set in full 69 grade, I think it sold for some price around $4600. It may not be too long before you have to pay $46,000 to get a set. It's already proven it's ability to move up in price quickly. The funny thing is, crappy fiat investments are famous for always dropping in value faster than they rise in value. The best investment coins are exactly the opposite. It took only about 6 months to a year for pagodas to fly high from about $1200 in 69 grade to the seemingly-high price of $25,000. It took another 6 months to a year for them to drop back to $4600, which was still much higher than where it started from.

Putting it another way, popular rare coins take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, repeatedly, and they keep doing that practically forever as far as human lifespans are concerned. I kept saying the same things during the slow times, and very few people saw the big picture. They're seeing it now :)

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2012, 06:29:12 AM »
Thanks a lot, badon, for responding.

Conflicting coin weight in these to auction COAs:
1. http://www.ebay.com/itm/251074404000  : this says 22.22gm
2. http://www.ebay.com/itm/190695358407  : this says 20gm (90% of 20gm = 18gm)