Author Topic: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas  (Read 17273 times)

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Underbidder

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The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« on: June 16, 2012, 02:51:58 AM »
http://www.ebay.com/itm/1984-China-Ancient-Pagoda-Gold-Gilt-Medal-Set-/120932028837?pt=US_World_Coins&hash=item1c281c51a5#ht_3792wt_922


If the gold plated ones corrode, so will the silver plated ones too, over time.

Are the ones you are buying, plated? 

How can you be sure?

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2012, 09:20:13 AM »
The silver pagodas are not .999 but are a sterling so not as many issues w/ spots etc.  I think many other MCC will corrode over time before the sterling coins will.  It is in the hands of NGC now to determing if pagodas are plate or real silver.  Rumors I get from dealers is to hang on to your pagodas.  Why?  No answer yet but the hint is that NGC MAY determine pagodas are real and not plate.  I have no clue until an announcement.  I will put my vote w/ the knowledgeable coin dealers and hang on to or buy pagodas................

Offline NumiKat

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2012, 10:10:33 AM »
Are you sure the ones in the auction are gold-plated? I could be wrong, but they look sort of  :001_unsure:like brass to me.

Underbidder

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2012, 11:59:43 AM »
The silver pagodas are not .999 but are a sterling so not as many issues w/ spots etc.  I think many other MCC will corrode over time before the sterling coins will.  It is in the hands of NGC now to determing if pagodas are plate or real silver.  ...  No answer yet but the hint is that NGC MAY determine pagodas are real and not plate.

The latest thinking is that there are both sterling Pagodas, and silver plated, and gilt Pagodas.   Just the same as the 1984 Goldfish, which NGC has * finally* recognized as such.
It makes so much sense- the Goldfish and Pagodas were both released at the same time, in similar configurations: sterling in fancy ornate carved wooden boxes, and plated in "four-pack" plain wrap.

Offline bonke

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2012, 12:03:06 PM »
I own two sets of (1984) pagoda medals.  They have been authenticated, graded and slabbed by NGC as S20G.  They are very attractive silver medals.  Over time, I have seen speculation in this coin forum about 1) existence of silver versions, silver plated versions and gilt plated versions, 2) whether these versions were or were not authorized by and issued by the China Mint, and 3) whether NGC has made "mistakes" with the pagoda medals which were submitted for authentication.  These speculations have led to a sharp decline in the prices for pagoda medals.  With this decline, I have been tempted to add a 3rd or 4th set of silver pagoda medals to my collection.  I am not interested in the silver-plated or gilt plated versions, even if they were authorized by and issued by the China Mint.  While this speculation may help me as a collector, I doubt whether it is helpful for investors or dealers.  Once the doubt is raised, it is difficult to eliminate it.  The lingering doubt will continue to impact value for a very long time.  Mark Bonke    

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #5 on: June 18, 2012, 10:25:55 PM »
Those coins are toned like brass. In addition, they appear to be made with known-fake dies, although the photos aren't good enough for me to be 100% sure of that. The box is a more recent manufacture than the original silver pagoda boxes, but I don't know much more about it than that.

Once the doubt is raised, it is difficult to eliminate it.  The lingering doubt will continue to impact value for a very long time.

Underbidder knows this, and seems to be entertained by it, at the very real financial expense of people who listen to him - that's probably why he is constantly posting FUD on this forum. No person with good intentions constantly talks about things they don't like.

Although Underbidder is smart enough to fool a lot of people, he's not smart enough to fool everyone, especially the talented people on this forum. I think most of Underbidder's negative influence is on people who read the forum, but don't actively participate. FUD and trolling are somewhat unavoidable, and as bonke has already pointed out, it's very beneficial to those of us who are buying these coins. So, for those reasons and more, I'm reluctant to intervene, or even mention this in a larger stage.

Manipulation-for-entertainment is extremely rare, and usually doesn't spread very far before people realize what's going on. I doubt it will have much lasting effect once the data is published and verifiable at the Coin Compendium. With almost all known pagodas already recorded in the CC, the raw data available is incredible and only waiting for someone to study and make some conclusions. I should probably publish more of the information I have, like I did with the box photos.

There's a rumor circulating now that NGC is preparing to release new information that is positive for the solid silver pagodas. Either way, I'm very patient, and I can wait a lot longer than I already have. The pagodas and goldfish are among the most important of China's early modern coinage, and that is never going to change.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2012, 10:56:35 PM »
Those coins are toned like brass. In addition, they appear to be made with known-fake dies, although the photos aren't good enough for me to be 100% sure of that.

I am the seller of this set. The medals are not brass but gold-plated. The "brass-like" look is due to a reflection of a white background I used. If you look at the first photo showing the medals inside the box you can easily see their luster. I have two more gold plated sets in an excellent condition to compare to and I see no difference in the details. In these photos the medals actually look worse than they really are.

Regarding this ebay listing, I provided photos from 2 different angles that show as honestly as possible the condition of the medals. It is very important to me that buyer will not be surprised and will know exactly what he is going to get. In addition the buyer can return the medals if he is not satisfied with them. This is the best I can do to eliminate any risk from the buyer.

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2012, 11:03:42 PM »
Thanks for the clarification Gilmore. Reflective surfaces can be confounding. I see you have given permission for your CCF photos to go on the Coin Compendium:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=5260.msg31120#msg31120

If you have full resolution photos of these coins, I would love to put them on the CC for study. I do not own a set of these, and if what happened with the goldfish repeats with pagodas, these may be deemed genuine, and suddenly quite valuable.

One problem I noticed was that it appears the obverse and reverse photos are not matched. If you decide to let us have your best photos of these coins, can you clarify which obverse goes with which reverse, so we can study them properly?

I can add a sighting for them to the CC, also, just so we can have a record of their appearance on the market.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2012, 11:07:30 PM »
Sure Badon, I will provide high-res photos of this set and another set in a good condition.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2012, 11:14:46 PM »
One problem I noticed was that it appears the obverse and reverse photos are not matched.

They actually do. I took 2 photos of each side from 2 different angles since it was very hard to show the toned areas clearly from one angle. Every angle revealed some toned areas that were "hidden" in the other due to the reflection of the proof surface.

Underbidder

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #10 on: June 18, 2012, 11:28:36 PM »
Does searching for truth, now take a backseat to striving to maintain unsupported values at all costs? If so, that would too bad, as the only losers would be those new collectors who are depending on what they rely on as experts opinion.  There was a lot of exuberant cheerleading when these Pagodas hit a reported $24,000.  They have been continued to be hyped, and when more of them showed up in greater numbers than would be expected, it was swept under the rug.
Kona Jim wrote there was a reason Clark was selling his cheap. He said it and let it end at that.  That the silent market behind the invisible hand knew something was going on, and were pushing values lower for good reason.  Am I  now the sole target of a personal attack and name calling because I try to dig deeper and find the actual truth about these and other medals?  Poconopenn originally laid out very detailed explanations about the existence of plated coins in addition to sterling. I agreed, based on my research, and I have posted about logical explanations to the mysteries.  PandaExpress took the ball and found out more information than anyone previous, and got NGC involved too in discovering the truth. So are there plans to go ahead and castigate Kona Jim and Poconopenn and PandaExpress along with me?  I think all collectors want to know the truth about their collection. I know I do.
Yeah, I've got both sterling and plated specimens, and I wish I would have known before I overpaid, I bet others would have liked to have known, too.

  Until very recently, a tiny vocal minority ( of one individual) who seems to have a lot invested in these, refused stubbornly to give in to even the possibility of the existence of plated medals.  Now that position cannot be defended any longer.  They were all "fakes" , you see.  No plated ones, because that truth would
harm collection values if it were to come out.

 That was an incorrect assessment, by the way. There is no manipulation, (coming from my end anyway, others have PMd me they fear a LOT of manipulation and "pump and dump" is coming downward from another direction. I am only on a steady march towards uncovering the truth which will protect collectors investments in the long run, by furnishing true information, and help investors and collectors know the true value about what they are paying for.  I call that Good Intentioned.

By the way, a quote attributed to Mark Twain (although not proven):
"It's easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled" - - Mark Twain


*see how easy that is not to call out people by name, but rather make arguments based on truth and principles?
And I thought the job of a moderator was to moderate?  Moderate disparate positions, not just bully theirs, in which they may have a financial conflict of interest.

Offline KonaJim

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2012, 12:08:53 AM »
My position on Pagoda's is very simple.  To the stock market for an analogy.  When a publicly traded company experiences "accounting irregularities" you run for the hills.  That doesn't mean that every company is fraudulent.  You are just avoiding potential problems.  If you don't know what you are buying and you can't tell for sure, and experts, and coin grading companies are having difficulty ferreting out the truth why be involved?  That in a nutshell is my position.  I don't know how to find out if what I'm buying is what it's said to be. Also, I don't want the responsibility of warranting an item that I can't be sure of.  They are beautiful coins, but not for me, only because I am too conservative to risk buying something I can't guarantee.  All perspectives should be welcomed.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2012, 01:50:16 AM »
I am expecting matching varieties in pagodas with goldfishes. Goldfish has 1984 silver, silver plated and gold gilt. So far I have seen silver and gold gilt pagodas. Silver plated to be seen. Has anyone seen them ?

Underbidder

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2012, 02:08:43 AM »
Exactly. That is the $million question.  Seems to make sense, right?  We shall see.

But I'd suggest you consider being careful voicing that opinion.... You may be threatened for that here, called out personally by name, castigated, and have your motives questioned and your reputation trampled.


I know on some investment advisory services, the writer (moderator?)  has to disclose their position in fairness to the readers so the readers know of any potential conflict of financial interest in order to avoid "pump and dump" self enrichment.  I wonder, sadly, have we reached that, here?

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2012, 02:42:50 AM »
I am a bit confused. Why would finding new variety with different metal composition be problematic ? I take it as more fun to collect. Anyway - hopefully alike goldfishes, NGC will come up with a formal statement about pagodas soon. You guys are big shots here - I am a spec of dust. Just having fun while collecting MCCs. Cheers!

Underbidder

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2012, 03:44:35 AM »
I agree- let the information come out, and let the chips fall where they may. If there exist plated Pagodas, fine, then that is history, you can't change that.
Fun to collect plated medals too.  Just not pay too-high price for plated when buyer thinks they are getting sterling ones. Discovery is good.

We will be learning a lot about these medals in due order. Just allow the information to come out, without killing the messengers, thank you.  That is the problem in countries with heavy-handed dictatorships: their " leaders" try to squash free flow of information exchange, thinking it threatens their control.  In the end the truth comes out, but the dictators lose to the people eventually because truth DOES get discovered and passed around eventually as people stand their ground. Think Tiananmen Square.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2012, 02:08:25 PM »
Looks like NGC has two different labels for similar pagoda silver coins. One says "SILVER" other says "S20G"

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #17 on: June 19, 2012, 02:32:00 PM »
Pagoda set auctions ended today morning:

China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Yingxian Wooden Temple NGC PF-68UC         $510
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Zhenjue Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1000
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Kaiyuan Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1009
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Songyue Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1140

Total  $3659 [without box, which is currently going for $127.50, which makes the total $3786.5]

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #18 on: June 19, 2012, 02:35:10 PM »
I have been emailing a NGC member.  Have emailed photos of broken line vs connected line.  Asked if one is plated.  There is information coming out on the pagodas and hopefully this issue of plate vs real silver will be solved in the next few days...................

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #19 on: June 19, 2012, 02:46:00 PM »
I have been emailing a NGC member.  Have emailed photos of broken line vs connected line.  Asked if one is plated.  There is information coming out on the pagodas and hopefully this issue of plate vs real silver will be solved in the next few days...................

So far all the silver pagodas I have seen have broken line for Kaiyuan temple. For the gold gilt, there is no broken line anywhere. Have you seen a silver set where there is no broken line ? Not sure where this confusion comes from.

Offline r3globe

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #20 on: June 19, 2012, 04:51:45 PM »
I have seen one Kaiyuan pagoda coin with a connected line certified by NGC as 1984 S20 medal. The certification took place less than a year ago. I believe NGC (armed with badon's information) did some extra testing on it and was sent out for an outside expert. It came back certified as 1984 S20 and a high grade. For NGC, deciding whether it is sterling or plated should be very very easy and straightforward. They can assay it with a non-invasive device (i believe it is called a Spectrometer).

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #21 on: June 19, 2012, 04:54:44 PM »
I have seen one Kaiyuan pagoda coin with a connected line certified by NGC as 1984 S20 medal. The certification took place less than a year ago. I believe NGC (armed with badon's information) did some extra testing on it and was sent out for an outside expert. It came back certified as 1984 S20 and a high grade. For NGC, deciding whether it is sterling or plated should be very very easy and straightforward. They can assay it with a non-invasive device (i believe it is called a Spectrometer).

I would certainly love to see that continuous line Kaiyuan coin, as the current S20G set listed in Ebay also has broken line. See 390381877704

Offline r3globe

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #22 on: June 19, 2012, 05:01:26 PM »
I will see if I can share that info with the forum.

Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #23 on: June 20, 2012, 12:27:38 PM »

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2012, 10:25:08 PM »
Dealer friend at China says there are silver, silver plated and gilt gold versions of 1984 pagoda sets, just like 1984 goldfish sets.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #25 on: June 20, 2012, 11:09:49 PM »
Dealer friend at China says there are silver, silver plated and gilt gold versions of 1984 pagoda sets, just like 1984 goldfish sets.

A few dealers I was talking to said the same thing, but there is probably no way of verifying this.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #26 on: June 20, 2012, 11:39:41 PM »
A few dealers I was talking to said the same thing, but there is probably no way of verifying this.

Considering they knew about the 1984 goldfish versions with authority BEFORE NGC recognized them, I would take their word as correct.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #27 on: June 21, 2012, 09:27:25 AM »
NGC is coming out w/ a announcement on the pagodas soon.  This should answer all questions and end speculation.  All I can tell you at this time is to buy pagodas!!...................

Offline exchange

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #28 on: June 21, 2012, 09:47:45 AM »
Dealer friend at China says there are silver, silver plated and gilt gold versions of 1984 pagoda sets, just like 1984 goldfish sets.

Maybe the mintage of 260 is for each type bringing the total closer to 1000.

exchange

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #29 on: June 21, 2012, 11:18:21 AM »
Maybe the mintage of 260 is for each type bringing the total closer to 1000.

exchange

My guess is gold gilt is certainly way more than 260, based on it's abundant availability.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #30 on: June 22, 2012, 02:36:19 PM »
How many pagodas are for sale?  I see on ebay, one silver set in China and a gilt copper.  Clark Smith had one but it is sold.  Any others?.....................

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #31 on: June 22, 2012, 09:16:54 PM »
Clark Smith had a PF 68 Zhenjue for $850 which sold in a few days.  Many other MCC w/ higher mintage than the pagodas are selling for much more.  I agree that at some point soon the market should turn up for the pagodas, the mintage is low and quality high.  Everyone is searching for that rare undervalued MCC and I think it is right in front of us.  Still waiting for NGC's message which will probably be mostly known information.............

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #32 on: June 22, 2012, 09:33:26 PM »
This morning I was in contact with NGC regarding the pagoda medals. I received news which were not officially released. Since they did not ask me to keep quiet I guess it is OK to share it.

As of last week they have have confirmed 4 varieties of these medals: silver, silver plated brass, gilt brass and just brass. Any of these will be gradable after metal testing and the criteria met. Once they have all these variates in to grade they will released an official announcement. So far they got the silver, silver plated and a gold gilt set. I will send them a brass set next week for analysis so they could complete the research.

Hopefully we will have the official news soon...

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #33 on: June 22, 2012, 09:37:39 PM »
When their announcement comes out, the first thing I'm going to look at are the reverses. The question of whether there are broken line and unbroken line varieties hasn't been settled yet. I'm guessing that the newly certified varieties you mentioned will add some more credibility to the idea that there might be genuine varieties.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #34 on: June 22, 2012, 09:59:50 PM »
Any other infomation Gilmore?  Since NGC metal tests the coins, how can the graded pagodas today be fake or plate?   It seems the silver plate may be the rarest but will wait till we hear from them.  Does anyone have a silver plate pagoda w/ photos?   Bottom line....coins are metal tested for content so the existing graded pagodas have a large probability of being geniune silver.  Does NGC warranty their graded coins?  With the information we have, will any of NGC's announcement be surprising?  At this point, I am pretty well convinced that the graded pagodas are genuine and one of the most undervalued MCC due to low mintage.  Are we headed to BUE?........

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #35 on: June 22, 2012, 10:02:02 PM »
Any other information Gilmore? 

This is all I received.

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #36 on: June 22, 2012, 10:17:59 PM »
They don't test all the coins, just the ones they think are suspicious. The 2 fake sets they graded were graded early, before they had seen enough of them to know what a suspicious coin looks like. All the other graded pagodas are probably genuine, but there is at least one more that I'm uncertain about.

Yes, NGC guarantees their coins, but there are a few important limitations to the guarantee, so read it carefully:

http://www.ngccoin.com/services/writtenguarantee.asp

I think some of NGC's info will be surprising. One thing we may be surprised about is the rarity of some of the pagoda types. I'm not sure if they'll be rarer than the solid silver ones we already know about with a 260 mintage, but the fact that NGC has not already seen a brass set is telling that they're probably rare. Cross your fingers and hope that NGC determines they are genuine.

Any news about varieties, especially whole new types, is almost always positive for coin valuations. Next week will probably be exciting for the pagoda owners. I only wish that there were more of them on the market, so we can watch some price action. But, they're just too rare.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #37 on: June 22, 2012, 10:23:59 PM »
I am not sure about the rarity of the gold gilt or the brass. For example, we can see that gold gilt medals are available for sale however none were sent to NGC for grading up to now. They will receive a set next for the first time. I believe that once they announce that gold gilt and brass medals are gradable more of them will show up.


Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #38 on: June 24, 2012, 12:17:34 PM »
Here is summary of information, IMO, considered to be reliable for pagoda sets:

Silver (0.900 purity) coin weighs 22.2 gm.

Silver plated coin weights about 16.1 gm.

Gold plated coin weighs about 15.6 gm.

Copper (brass) coin weighs about 15.8 gm.

The tolerance of weight is about 1%, which is higher than official China Mint coins.

The silver and copper sets were minted in 1984, but plated sets might be made after 1990, based on the information posted in the Chinese websites. No weight information about fake silver and fake silver plated coins, but they are in the market place.

NGC had rejected 1 set of silver pagoda as “not genuine” (3493608-021-024).

IMO, two NGC graded sets, S20G (3299509-015-022) are highly questionable, may be reproduction of silver set (not plated).

Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #39 on: June 24, 2012, 12:40:41 PM »
I have seen one Kaiyuan pagoda coin with a connected line certified by NGC as 1984 S20 medal. The certification took place less than a year ago. I believe NGC (armed with badon's information) did some extra testing on it and was sent out for an outside expert. It came back certified as 1984 S20 and a high grade. For NGC, deciding whether it is sterling or plated should be very very easy and straightforward. They can assay it with a non-invasive device (i believe it is called a Spectrometer).

NGC can not test silver content accurately, if the coin is plated. See previous discussin in the following thread:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2618.765

Or the following article about ED-XRF in the website of British Museum.

http://www.britishmuseum.org/about_us/departments/conservation_and_science/research/scientific_techniques/x-ray_fluorescence.aspx



Offline poconopenn

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #40 on: June 24, 2012, 01:20:48 PM »
Here is an excellent book about metallurgical analysis of Chinese coins published by British Museum on line if you want to become an expert in ancient Chinese coins. It has more than 500 pictures of cash coins, covers more than  2000 years.

http://www.britishmuseum.org/pdf/RP%20152%20Metall%20Analysis%20Chinese%20coins-Prelims-Appendix.pdf

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2012, 12:21:56 AM »
I was told the grading companies have the tools to determine metal content in the coins.  Accuracy is a high priority for them.  From my email opinions, the conclusion is the graded silver pagodas are real silver and not plate.  Still waiting for a announcement in case I am wrong.  It will be interesting to see the final results of this entire debate.  Have learned alot.  One of the more informative topics on CCF that has perked interest in the pagoda and goldfish.  Have at least 2 more friends that want a pagoda as they have read many CCF articles............................

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2012, 03:05:03 AM »
Any suggestion/idea on what would be a fair market price for a full 69 silver pagoda set with original box ?

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2012, 03:54:42 AM »
I have not seen a full 69 set in quite a while, and I'm sure upward market price pressure is a lot higher now than it was at the time of the last sale. That's why everyone wants these super-rare coins, and it's the fundamental reason why they're good investments. Demand only needs to be slightly higher than supply, and prices just keep rising almost continuously for decades or even centuries - maybe longer. I can think of one coin that goes back about 2000 to 2500 years, and it has never stopped rising in price except during major wars, famines, etc.

This is why I like the coin market so much. Not only has it been somewhat weak for decades, but now that it has come back to life, it's going to outlive us all. The only reason the coin market was weak was because fools followed the "fiat buy-in" that began to dominate in 1964. That was actually a turning point for a lot of things.

The most common lifespan of a fiat currency is about 15 years. The whole world followed America down the path towards destruction of fiat wealth. All that will be left at the end are the same valuable coins that humanity has had faith in for thousands of years.

If I remember correctly, the last time I saw a pagoda set in full 69 grade, I think it sold for some price around $4600. It may not be too long before you have to pay $46,000 to get a set. It's already proven it's ability to move up in price quickly. The funny thing is, crappy fiat investments are famous for always dropping in value faster than they rise in value. The best investment coins are exactly the opposite. It took only about 6 months to a year for pagodas to fly high from about $1200 in 69 grade to the seemingly-high price of $25,000. It took another 6 months to a year for them to drop back to $4600, which was still much higher than where it started from.

Putting it another way, popular rare coins take 2 steps forward and 1 step back, repeatedly, and they keep doing that practically forever as far as human lifespans are concerned. I kept saying the same things during the slow times, and very few people saw the big picture. They're seeing it now :)

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2012, 06:29:12 AM »
Thanks a lot, badon, for responding.

Conflicting coin weight in these to auction COAs:
1. http://www.ebay.com/itm/251074404000  : this says 22.22gm
2. http://www.ebay.com/itm/190695358407  : this says 20gm (90% of 20gm = 18gm)

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #45 on: June 25, 2012, 09:38:38 AM »
90% of 22.22g = 20g that is on the NGC slab or S20g............I think that is right.......

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #46 on: June 26, 2012, 01:52:07 PM »
Pagoda set auctions ended today morning:

China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Yingxian Wooden Temple NGC PF-68UC         $510
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Zhenjue Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1000
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Kaiyuan Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1009
China 1984 Silver Pagoda Medal Songyue Temple NGC PF-69UC                 $1140

Total  $3659 [without box, which is currently going for $127.50, which makes the total $3786.5]
It is in line with their selling price in China. A raw set sold for RMB9500 in November, 2011, and there is still a raw set for sale for RMB6520 right now by a reputable seller. The exchange rate between RMB and USD is 6.34:1 at the moment. These pagodas are listed as three stars and a half on Huang Ruiyong's star list. And the price matches that.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #47 on: June 26, 2012, 02:30:10 PM »
Raw set at RMB6520 (about 1025 usd) is cheap! Could you please post the link to that ?

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #48 on: June 26, 2012, 03:19:00 PM »
Raw set at RMB6520 (about 1025 usd) is cheap! Could you please post the link to that ?
Here you go: http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=12270014046. Normally people do not buy coins on Taobao for fear of fakes, but there are a few trusted dealers. This is one of them.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #49 on: June 26, 2012, 03:24:13 PM »
Here you go: http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=12270014046. Normally people do not buy coins on Taobao for fear of fakes, but there are a few trusted dealers. This is one of them.

Thanks, but I cannot read Chinese :-( Wish someone could buy them for me.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #50 on: June 26, 2012, 03:28:29 PM »
Also looks like this is an auction and not a buy it now, so that would make 6520 current price!

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #51 on: June 26, 2012, 03:46:38 PM »
Also looks like this is an auction and not a buy it now, so that would make 6520 current price!
These days there are very few coin bidders. Also, the pagoda set is not a hot one among Chinese collectors. Despite its small mintage, it has never been that popular, partly because they are medals. I do not expect a much higher price, unless people here start bidding on it.

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #52 on: June 27, 2012, 02:21:43 AM »
Here you go: http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?id=12270014046. Normally people do not buy coins on Taobao for fear of fakes, but there are a few trusted dealers. This is one of them.

This seller is reputable and trustworthy as you said.
Funny thing is that I contacted him last October asking few questions about this set's condition and if he guarantees that it is genuine. His response to these questions was that he advices not to purchase it so I stayed away.




Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #53 on: June 27, 2012, 02:24:09 AM »
This seller is reputable and trustworthy as you said.
Funny thing is that I contacted him last October asking few questions about this set's condition and if he guarantees that it is genuine. His response to these questions was that he advices not to purchase it so I stayed away.

Very strange! :-(

Offline Gilmore

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #54 on: June 27, 2012, 02:31:13 AM »
I felt the same way. He got uncomfortable with these questions and so did I with his answer.

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #55 on: June 27, 2012, 02:38:57 AM »
Maybe he just wasn't sure whether his coins were genuine or not. That has been happening to people reading CCF lately :)

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #56 on: June 27, 2012, 11:55:13 AM »
Very strange! :-(
I emailed the seller yesterday and he did not reply.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #57 on: June 27, 2012, 01:23:32 PM »
Hey fwang2450, which silver chinese coins are in demand in China that a new collector can afford?  Any coins that should pop up in price in the future that are reasonable today?  Not many MCC are overlooked and the only one I can think of right now that is early year and cheap is the 1980 Speedskater.  Do you know of others that are your best buys?.......................

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #58 on: June 27, 2012, 03:12:12 PM »
Hey fwang2450, which silver chinese coins are in demand in China that a new collector can afford?  Any coins that should pop up in price in the future that are reasonable today?  Not many MCC are overlooked and the only one I can think of right now that is early year and cheap is the 1980 Speedskater.  Do you know of others that are your best buys?.......................
I wish I had Badon's crystal ball, to see what coins will pop in value in the future. For some reason, the speedskater has been unpopular among Chinese collectors. Maybe because it is a specialty (sports) coin? There were some discussions of undervalued coins with future potential on the Chinese jibi.net site. The coins mentioned were the 1986 WWF panda, the 1997 minorities set, the Silk Road sets and many 1998 coins, as the mintage of most coins in 1998 was much smaller than the officially released numbers due to the market meltdown in 1997. I may also add the 1992 proof (5 yuan) Environmental Protection coin, which appeared on eBay only once in the last 6 months apart from Huanyin and Naomi's high price listings. Either the mintage in Mr Ge's book is wrong (20000, but the official yearbook says 2000), or collectors just hold on to it. But then it is hard to predict whether their price will be "discovered" in the future. They may remain low-value coins all the time, like the 198x proof gold pandas. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #59 on: June 28, 2012, 10:48:41 AM »
Thanks for the information fwang.  Once again, the grading companies have the tools to detemine metal content in coins.  The graded silver pagodas are real silver and not plate.  That should apply to goldfish too.  Their announcement will make it official soon........................

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #60 on: June 28, 2012, 11:47:46 PM »
... There were some discussions of undervalued coins with future potential on the Chinese jibi.net site. The coins mentioned were the 1986 WWF panda, the 1997 minorities set, the Silk Road sets and many 1998 coins, ...

What is a fair price for 1997 minorities set ? OMP and 69 grade ? Thanks!

Offline fwang2450

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #61 on: June 29, 2012, 12:47:51 AM »
What is a fair price for 1997 minorities set ? OMP and 69 grade ? Thanks!
OMP is between $400-500. No 69 grades are for sale right now. But you can do some calculation based on the OMP price.

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #62 on: June 29, 2012, 01:10:09 AM »
OMP is between $400-500. No 69 grades are for sale right now. But you can do some calculation based on the OMP price.

Thank you so much. The OMP for sale currently at Ebay is certainly overpriced in that case.

Offline badon

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #63 on: June 29, 2012, 04:29:02 AM »
It seems a lot of coins are overpriced on eBay. I guess people are holding out for higher prices. There are a few auctions going on though, and there's several reliable dealers that frequently sell for what the coins are worth. I don't know how they make money, but as a buyer, I'm not complaining!

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #64 on: August 27, 2012, 10:19:45 AM »
NGC says the paoda article will finally be out by this Friday or maybe around Labor Day.  Maybe for once and all, the truth will be known.  My guess is that the graded silver pagodas are genuine silver and not plate.  Will wait for official announcement.  Their comments will either kill the market or return pagodas to their most high former status.  My guess, big price rise from demand for silver pagodas is on the way as this will be the last hurdle to cross.  Just a guess, I am waiting for the article and hopefully they will answer questions too. ....................

Offline shibaji

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #65 on: August 27, 2012, 12:54:04 PM »
My guess is there will not be a change in market at all - no matter what NGC says. Graded pagodas are silver is common knowledge, and remains the same. Did anything change after the Goldfish announcement ?

Please do not create hype.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #66 on: August 27, 2012, 02:32:24 PM »
A year or so ago the paodas were expensive as were many other MCC.   I have watched market prices go up, down, and now up slow.  I track what is affordable like silver MCC.  It makes sense the former expensive coins will return to their former value and that is happening now.  Big silver kilos have headed up in the last 2 months.  There is also more demand for 12 oz.  The pagodas were in that group before the disagreements.  Yes, they may go up slow like the goldfish.  Jay's PF 69 goldfish yesterday were higher at $400+ to $500 each.   Pagodas have been held back so I view them as a coiled spring.  There are still fans of them such as you, Shibaji (and me).  1990 goldfish is 2000 mintage.  Pagodas 260 mint.   Demand is there , supply is not...    I also believe many pagoda buyers are sitting on the sidelines until the issue is cleared up. Even some dealers are not participating. ........

Offline sasushi

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Re: The scary undeniable problem with Pagodas
« Reply #67 on: August 31, 2012, 02:50:21 AM »
I wish I had Badon's crystal ball, to see what coins will pop in value in the future. For some reason, the speedskater has been unpopular among Chinese collectors. Maybe because it is a specialty (sports) coin? There were some discussions of undervalued coins with future potential on the Chinese jibi.net site. The coins mentioned were the 1986 WWF panda, the 1997 minorities set, the Silk Road sets and many 1998 coins, as the mintage of most coins in 1998 was much smaller than the officially released numbers due to the market meltdown in 1997. I may also add the 1992 proof (5 yuan) Environmental Protection coin, which appeared on eBay only once in the last 6 months apart from Huanyin and Naomi's high price listings. Either the mintage in Mr Ge's book is wrong (20000, but the official yearbook says 2000), or collectors just hold on to it. But then it is hard to predict whether their price will be "discovered" in the future. They may remain low-value coins all the time, like the 198x proof gold pandas. 

Hello fwang2450

Have you got more Informatiom on the UNEP 5 Yuan and the minorities?
Which Yearbook do you mean ?

Thank You.