Author Topic: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?  (Read 34725 times)

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Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2012, 06:02:02 AM »
Does it all go back to mintage when the market lines out?  If so, the 12oz Munich had 250 mintage.  The pagodas (4 to a set) had 260 mintage.  The Munich priced over $40,000 and the pagodas priced $6000 at their peak.  If mintage is the main price driver in the long term than the pagodas are best value at this time because who can find a 12oz Munich for sale at a decent price?  One sold for over $11,000 recently?  That will buy alot of pagodas.  The fake pagoda issue should be worked out in time.  When it is, the prices today will seem incredibly cheap.......No?..................

For medals with supposedly similar populations, I have seen many times more Pagodas than Munich medals. It's entirely possible that there are a) fewer than 250 1997 12 oz. Munich medals, b) more than 260 Pagoda sets, or c) both of the above.

It should also be noted that the same month that the 1997 Munich medal brought over $40,000 at auction in China, it also auctioned for $16,000 in Germany. I don't consider the $40,000 (actually $42,898 depending on currency translation) to have been a repeatable value for the medal. If you accept the $16,000 as a realistic level than since March 2011 its price isn't down much, at all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector .com

« Last Edit: May 16, 2012, 06:11:38 AM by PandaCollector »

Offline exchange

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2012, 08:49:37 AM »
So is the market collapsing for these medals?  In a short answer what does everybody think?  There are a lot of good examples of sales and data being posted on this thread but not as many "yes" "no" opinions.

I would say "no"

based solely on the coins I have, and have sold.

IMO, not even close of collapsing. My thinking may just be to simplistic and naive. As long as we don't get to close to spot its all fine. The argument here is it may very well be close to spot one day as gold and silver become once again monetary vehicles for which then prices will be quite high in turn offsetting premiums paid for the medals.

So lets say a 1 ounce gold medal today sells for double spot, 100% premium. To round things of, a 1oz gold medal will cost you $3000 .
Now lets say spot gold goes to $4500, but now the premium is only 40%. Your medal is now worth $6300. While spot tripled, the medal more than doubled. Thats not a bad return for taking risk.
Sure, several medals currently have premiums of 200%, 300%, etc... over spot and the results will vary. Lets say you purchased a 1 ounce gold medal today for $4500, 300% over spot. At one point spot hits $4500 and your premium is again 40%. Your medal would be worth $6300.

If we assume the price of gold continues to rise, (not an absurd projection)  the smaller premiums that we may possibly get in the future may be a non factor. These scenario do not include the China factor and its population, so I may very well be to conservative.


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Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #32 on: May 26, 2012, 01:25:19 AM »
"A couple of random thoughts. The 97 Munich 12 Oz. had one, single, solitary spike to $41,000. Was that its true market value? Did it really collapse? Two years earlier it was a $2,000 item. If you paid $2,000 than $15,000 still looks pretty good."

Areas of this market, like the big Munich medals, are so illiquid that to be honest I can't be picky when it comes to auction data. Tons of coins had single, solitary spikes. And during a bull market these figures are pointed at to show people the strength of the market, but in a bear market some people (not you Peter) point at them and say "Oh, that was just an anomaly". All I'm saying is that in a market that's so thinly traded I feel that to be objective about the data I have to give equal weight to all prices. At the end of the day these coins are only worth as much as what the next person is willing to pay, and if somebody was willing to pay what now seems like an exorbitant amount, then that was what the coin was worth at that point in time.

"Would you have done better in silver bullion? Anyone who bought at $50/oz. has lost nearly half the value of their purchase."

For the most part I feel comparisons between commodity markets and modern Chinese coins are overdone. I feel collectibles like art, wine, or numismatic high end coins are more similar (when it comes to what drives those asset classes) than the relationship between numismatic pieces and bullion markets.

"I vote "no" as well, but it depends on what you paid for your medals."

I disagree on that fact that what you paid for your medals has any relationship to how the market is currently doing. Maybe on an individual basis someone bought these medals a while back and is still up significantly from their purchase price, but I don't look at markets that way. I look at recent auction data for modern Chinese medals and notice that the trend is down.

"Again if your comparing all medals to the pagodas than medals are fine in general."

I don't like to judge the performance of a market relative to the most extreme example. That's like saying "Hey, the S&P hasn't gone anywhere in the past three months but compared to First Solar (down 50%) the market is doing awesome". The S&P isn't doing awesome, it's flat.

"Mr. Ge I'm sure is very knowledgeable but his star system is out of this universe."

Agreed.

"It should also be noted that the same month that the 1997 Munich medal brought over $40,000 at auction in China, it also auctioned for $16,000 in Germany."

Interesting, thanks for the info.

And now for some figures:

1987 1 Oz. Gold Panda San Francisco Expo Raw for $2000 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/230795010271
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Cincinnati Expo in PF68 for $3500 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/370610039140
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Basel Pt. Raw for $5000 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?item=320892121347
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Basel Pt in PF69 for $7100 (BP included) http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572912-detail.shtml
1991 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $1700 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572321-detail.shtml
1992 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $1340 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572913-detail.shtml
1997 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $5340 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572349-detail.shtml
1997 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF68 for $4075 (BP included) -- http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572348-detail.shtml

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #33 on: May 26, 2012, 01:51:04 AM »
"How is it defined?"

That's the thing. I don't know his methodology and thus don't put that much into his rankings. Overall, it's a good book to have. No single source of information should dictate buying decisions, I like to synthesize info from a variety of sources and do my own due diligence.

I don't keep track of the lunar coins but yes, the price of matte silver YoC coins has dropped. Coins in SP69 are going for roughly $8000-$9000 now when they brought $12,000+ last fall. Raw coins are bringing $4500. The gold YoC coins in PF69 have dropped from ~$3300 to ~$2750.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2014, 05:27:36 PM »
Anyone know where I can find a raw 1985 Great Wall medal?  What would be the approximate cost.  I was doing some reading on the medal, what a fascinating history.  Anyone know the actual mintage of this medal.  I think Bonke said 500 or even as low as 160?  No wonder they are hard to find. Bonke, you have a 69?  Damn, that thing must fetch 10k? Wow.

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #35 on: April 09, 2014, 07:31:48 AM »
Why would the China medals market be collapsing? Medals are of smaller mintages than coins, hence more rare and hard-to-find.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #36 on: April 09, 2014, 07:33:42 AM »
 N31. Do you have a 1985 Great Wall I can buy?

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #37 on: April 09, 2014, 07:59:15 AM »
N31. Do you have a 1985 Great Wall I can buy?

Nope. I wish I got into collecting pandas sooner.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2014, 08:13:37 AM »
Dang, with all your chinese connections you can't find me one for a few hundred dollars?   N66   :tongue_smilie:

some speculate there are only 100+ of these because of the error.  Look at this listing.  Ain't cheap, but I know you can find me a raw one for a few hundred bucks thru your chinese friends?  :001_tt2:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/351016939942?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #39 on: April 09, 2014, 08:24:08 AM »
Why would the China medals market be collapsing? Medals are of smaller mintages than coins, hence more rare and hard-to-find.
1. Medal has less demand in China
2. Due to high premium over spot,  medal has almost no melt
3. Due to melt on bullion coins, lots of keydates have less surviving pop than medals

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2014, 08:29:50 AM »
Anyone know where I can find a raw 1985 Great Wall medal?  What would be the approximate cost.  I was doing some reading on the medal, what a fascinating history.  Anyone know the actual mintage of this medal.  I think Bonke said 500 or even as low as 160?  No wonder they are hard to find. Bonke, you have a 69?  Damn, that thing must fetch 10k? Wow.

Only chance to get it is to go to auctions in China.  I thought it was overpriced and passed one couple of years ago.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2014, 08:30:14 AM »
hmm. what do you mean by melt?  folks melt these coins done just for the silver content?  Are they nuts?  N17

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2014, 08:36:13 AM »
hmm. what do you mean by melt?  folks melt these coins done just for the silver content?  Are they nuts?  N17

Lots of 90's coins got melt due to lack of demand.  And dealers could get their money back quickly that way.  Remember lots of keydates today back then were only sold with little premium over spot,  some were even lower than or on spot.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2014, 08:43:27 AM »
Wow!  That is amazing.  Where was I when this happened...oh, I know, oblivious to then precious metal world while partying in college.  Damn! If you happen to find a 1985 raw medal, let me know, I'd be interested.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2014, 11:40:38 AM »
I know Clark Smith had a 1985 Great Wall for sale for a few months, but it was sold quite recently.  It does show up once in a while, but expect to pay $3000 to $5000 for it.  Even raw one won't be cheap:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/China-1985-ANA-Convention-1-oz-silver-Proof-Medal-GREAT-WALL-original-holder-/351002292514?nma=true&si=kiOCSkgX8rQNAXvabJ2ZVO%252F5hvU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

This forum has many active discussions on the topic of medal.  You may want to use the search engine located on top right of each page to search for them.  Click the magnifier glass to refine your search.  Some notable discussions are 1984 great wall: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4488.0,   1984 pagoda (many threads), goldfish and many more.

Several forum members have special interest in medal such as RAREMEDAL, bonke and dealers like shibaji and sasushi.  These are just names from the top of my head, if I missed others please feel free to speak up.

An interesting first-hand account of coin melt from PeterPanda, the owner of PandaAmerica: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2357.msg12130#msg12130
An article on jb008.cn about large scale melting of Chinese coins: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=18.msg15048#msg15048

PS, I thought you already have a 1985 great wall?
I have 1 of the 1985 ANA medals of the Great Wall (mintage? Speculation 500), and those are hard to come by...they are in strong hands, and ain't cheap.