Author Topic: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?  (Read 35710 times)

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Year of the Dog

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2012, 02:24:57 AM »
Just to add some info to the 1988 Hong Kong Medal.  It was sold to a buyer in China.  I sold a 1982 1/2oz gold panda, sold to china.  1997, 2004, 2005, 2006 1/4oz gold pandas all sold to china.  2005 1/2oz gold panda sold to a buyer in China.  2000 1oz gold panda raw and damaged, China.  New Orleans Expo Panda Medal, China.  2000 and 1999 1/2 Gold Pandas, China.

I really could go on but here are the 90 day totals.  $87,000+ in inventory sold over the last 90 days.  $64,500 to China.  $8,400 to Australia.  $1975 to France.  And the balance stayed in the US.  I got FMV for all my inventory.  This doesn't include any trades that were pulled off with forum members that totaled another $40,000+   

I hope this info is useful to the forum members.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2012, 09:36:40 AM »
Thanks Year of the Dog.  Very good information.  My only question is when the flood of MCC is leaving the US, when will it impact price?.................

Offline Obsidian

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2012, 10:25:18 AM »
Thanks Year of the Dog.  Very good information.  My only question is when the flood of MCC is leaving the US, when will it impact price?.................

I'd say when the dealers / investors in the USA either sell their inventory or decide not to sell for a while.

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2012, 01:17:27 PM »
Thanks for the heads-up on that 88 New Orleans raw auction, Underbidder. Looks like it only went for $2125. Later last night somebody also bought the more common 87 New Orleans coin in raw condition for $2300. I guess they missed the PF69 auction hours earlier that ended at $2175. A couple of 1/2 Oz. gold Munich Expo Pandas in PF69 were auctioned off in Shanghai last night, all selling for between $1800 and $2000.

"As an example, I previewed the 1984 3.3oz silver medal in Kowloon in early April.  It was a wonderful example of a well-known silver medal with a planned mintage of 200 and an estimated actual mintage of 68 (split between proof and matte).  Champion Auctions was calling for an opening bid of $6000 (plus commission).  No one bid.  The item was passed.  Yes, it was raw.  Still, it looked wonderful.  Quite collectible!  There may have been a reserve above this $6000 opening bid.  We will never know.  This is a medal which was sold in prior Hong Kong auctions for large sums."

Two results for that medal. The proof version, in PF64, brought $5650 (that price includes the BP) last night in a healthy auction: http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1545869-detail.shtml. And a raw matte version brought $3280 but with only one bid: http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1557354-detail.shtml. A far cry from the $14,700 result in 2011 (although I do not know which variety that was, or in what condition).
« Last Edit: May 14, 2012, 01:33:55 PM by adamc4 »

Underbidder

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2012, 01:30:38 PM »
  There are exceptions such as the 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity. 


I am looking for this, 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity, in case anyone is selling.
 U/B



Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2012, 11:52:31 PM »
A couple of random thoughts. The 97 Munich 12 Oz. had one, single, solitary spike to $41,000. Was that its true market value? Did it really collapse? Two years earlier it was a $2,000 item. If you paid $2,000 than $15,000 still looks pretty good.

Would you have done better in silver bullion? Anyone who bought at $50/oz. has lost nearly half the value of their purchase.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector.com
« Last Edit: May 16, 2012, 12:00:55 AM by PandaCollector »

Year of the Dog

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2012, 12:04:47 AM »
So is the market collapsing for these medals?  In a short answer what does everybody think?  There are a lot of good examples of sales and data being posted on this thread but not as many "yes" "no" opinions.

I would say "no"

based solely on the coins I have, and have sold.

Underbidder

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2012, 12:27:06 AM »
Canaco - now THAT'S a collapse.

Down 66% today.   Can.v

So what's this talk about a collapse in medals all about?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2012, 12:30:58 AM »
I vote "no" as well, but it depends on what you paid for your medals. Badon and Tamo published a guide to coin investing last year that contains a great truism: profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. That is if you buy at good prices, when everyone isn't clamoring for the same thing, your chances of making money are much better than if you buy when everyone is saying that this is a sure thing, and that you can't lose. Or at least that's how I read it.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector.com


Underbidder

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2012, 12:39:00 AM »
What is your definiion of collapse?  25%?  50%?

Then no, except ovepriced Pagoda sets. 

In general, the silver medals have declined more.  Some due to revelations of higher numbers than thought, and plated versions. 
Silver is always more volatile. Buying the latest hot fad always has the danger of buying at the top.

Year of the Dog

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2012, 12:47:05 AM »
I would say that the Pagoda set is the all time example of a MCC or medal collapse.  If all other Medals are compared to this set than I would say that the rest of the medals market is just as up and down as any other market.  I think great Gold Medals like the 1988 Basel Au and Pt are fine and have been harder to find over the last year.  The 1988 Hong Kong Expo did as good as I could have hoped and showed a lot of interest as I received multiple bids daily for that Medal.  Some I'm curious about are the 1989 2nd Hong Kong Expo 1oz silvers.  Also the 1989 New York Expo 1oz Gold, I recently sold the Pt. version of this medal and it did great but the gold hasn't seemed to exciting.

Again if your comparing all medals to the pagodas than medals are fine in general.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2012, 01:31:31 AM »
Does it all go back to mintage when the market lines out?  If so, the 12oz Munich had 250 mintage.  The pagodas (4 to a set) had 260 mintage.  The Munich priced over $40,000 and the pagodas priced $6000 at their peak.  If mintage is the main price driver in the long term than the pagodas are best value at this time because who can find a 12oz Munich for sale at a decent price?  One sold for over $11,000 recently?  That will buy alot of pagodas.  The fake pagoda issue should be worked out in time.  When it is, the prices today will seem incredibly cheap.......No?..................

Year of the Dog

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2012, 01:38:58 AM »
Where do you find the mintage numbers for the pagoda set.  I haven't ever owned a set so I haven't seen a COA.  Can somebody post something from a China mint showing the mintage of only 260 sets.  Also were any of the pagoda medals minted in a higher quantity? 
Some Panda anniversary sets have limited sets numbered at only 1000 but each coin in the set has a different number of coins minted.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2012, 01:53:18 AM »
Mr Ge's book was the last one I know of.  He said 260 mintage and gave the pagodas 4 stars.  Is 5 stars the highest? .........

Offline KonaJim

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #29 on: May 16, 2012, 02:24:06 AM »
There are a few coins with 6 stars.  There are also 1/2 stars.  I think this star system was invented by Marconi.  You have to understand and I have asked, that a coin can have a higher mintage, lower value, and have more stars or vice versa.  Or as Dennis Gartmann would say it works if you are buying in Vietnamese Dong instead of dollars.  On further review, the system might have been developed by Alan Greenspan, the master of double speak.  Mr. Ge I'm sure is very knowledgeable but his star system is out of this universe.