Author Topic: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?  (Read 35698 times)

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Offline bonke

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MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« on: May 13, 2012, 12:33:18 PM »
modern Chinese medals - Is this market in collapse?

I collect modern Chinese medals (along with modern Chinese coins and stamps).  On May 11th, a 1985 silver (1 oz) 94th ANA medal sold on Ebay for $2193.99 (NGC PF68UC).  This is the silver medal with "The Great Wall" shown in mirror image on the medal.  Planned mintage was 500 and actual mintage is unknown, but estimated to be around 160.  Different varieties?  Who knows?  I do not think anyone has studied enough examples of this medal to know.  Still, a mintage of 160 +/- should make this quite collectible.  NGC has graded 15 with 1-67, 7-68 & 7-69.

During the last year or so, I have seen one of these medals sell on Ebay for $500 (Buy It Now) (raw) and at $6900 (PF69UC).  I purchased a raw one from Majestic Rarities at the Fun Show for $5000 (and had it graded at NGC PF69UC).  I have seen Panda America list one (raw) on Ebay for various prices (and I do not know if it ever sold).

My question.  Whether we look at the 1985 ANA medal or any other modern Chinese medal, are the prices of these medals dropping lower and lower, and is this market still collasping?  Generally, I would say this is true.  There are exceptions such as the 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity.  The price of this medal is not collasping.  Why?  None are for sale.  In other cases, the prices have dropped because the seller is unwilling to do so to complete a sale.  So, the item remains listed at a Buy It Now price which is too high for the present marketplace.

I welcome you comments and discussion.

Mark Bonke  


Offline bonke

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2012, 12:49:01 PM »
Corrections

I had trouble spelling "collapse" in two places.

I said "In other cases, the prices have dropped because . . ."  I meant to say "In other cases, the prices have NOT dropped because . . ."

If I know how to edit my prior submission, I would do so.

Mark Bonke

Offline bonke

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2012, 02:06:35 PM »
I am surprised.

I thought the coin forum members would challenge my premise.  I thought people would tell me about particular medals which they are collecting and how the prices for these particular medals are stable or rising.

As a collector, the initial response to my question is promising.  In 2012, I may be able to collect all of the modern Chinese medals I want for my collection without troublesome or bothersome competing bidders.  Imagine, a 12oz gold God of Longevity for spot plus $10.  Maybe, this will be in my future.  Maybe, the seller on Ebay who has been trying to get $64,900 month after month will finally decide that my very low bids have been reasonable.

Mark Bonke

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2012, 02:33:20 PM »
Collapse? Overall there seems to have been a pullback, with some medals affected more than others.  Notably more so with silver medals, like you note, the larger gold medals have not been put on sale.
I think the reasons for this is understandable: despite numbers on the economy being manipulated upwards to release to the masses, there is still pressure downward from deflationary forces.  Many collectors income has been pressured downwards, and small businessman have put off purchasing collectibles if instead they need the money to keep business going.  There are a lot of reasons, despite the occasional Hail Mary prices being paid for one-of-a-kind iconic art works -The -Scream- by the very wealthy or syndicates.

Its the working upper middle class that is now getting squeezed, and are putting off purchases for now, so prices of niche collectibles like medals, and especially silver medals, seem to be dropping.  If things get worse, the Fed will have no choice but to stimulate with QENEXT, and that will eventually get the collectible market going again.

So yes, its a buying opportunity!  Let's help the weak hands with their fiat needs!


PS- I was curious, and afterwards Googled " QENEXT" - nothing.... so you saw it here first everyone.... ;)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2012, 02:43:47 PM by Underbidder »

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2012, 02:52:29 PM »
I think most medals are holding their own.  All of these are silver.  The 1985 Xingiang Autonomy 5oz raw 1400 mintage has moved up to $900 to $1000.  One raw sold recently for about $700 but the seller stated it had some issues.  The Xingiang 5oz PF 68 (highest grade) is about $1400 + and one sold for $1775.  The 1oz Xinjiang 10Y keeps going up in price.  The 1986 ANA 5oz silver panda 2000 mint is $1500 PF 69 (highest grade)and around $800 to $900 for a PF 68.  Several 68 and lower grades for sale but prices are not dropping.  The 1987 5 oz silver pandas ANA and Long Beach 2000 mint are priced raw $600 to $800.  PF 69 (highest grade) are about $1,100? Several for sale.  The 1987 5oz Hong Kong 2000 mint, which is rare in the US, was last seen at $2000.  The 1988 Hong Kong 5oz dragons and pandas 1000 mint have not been seen for sale in awhile.  Last price was about $2500 raw so maybe $3000 now?  The 1988 5oz Munich w/ 1500 mint $1800 raw and PF 68 sold $1400.  The 1987 5oz Vault protector has gone up a little to $1000+ raw.  The 1989 3.3 oz God of Wealth 2430 mint and the 1991 3.3 oz silver panda anniversary 2000 mint are the only two medals that are slow selling and have dropped a bit on price.  Medals may be second class in China but due to low mintage and fair price for old rare silver, how can anyone pass on these?  In the near future there are just not enough coins to go around to all the buyers, so these low mintage medals have got to have a huge upside at some point.  The 1987 3.3 oz God of Longevity and 1988 Hong Kong dragons/pandas may lead the way to medal price increase.  (The 1990 year of Horse 50 Y is also rising in price)  I think the big silver medals are starting a slow incline up in price.  So which is best for the price.......that opinion is for another day.........

Offline fractalfate

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #5 on: May 13, 2012, 04:16:23 PM »
I agree that the medals have seen significant price weakness over the past several months. The gold 1oz panda medals seem to have been particularly hard hit. I personally greatly enjoy collecting medals as they (typically) have great designs and share the fundamental positive of relatively low mintage/population numbers. Probably the most significant headwind for medals has been, and will continue to be, the smaller collector base--not as many buyers are willing to pay premium prices for precious metals without fiat denominations on them. Why that is is open for debate, but it's reality cannot be denied. Also, I feel there is some credence to the thought that medals may be safer targets for conterfeiting, and therefore there may be more potential for the unwary collector to be ripped off. It only takes one experience like that to wipe the desire to collect medals out of your mouth.

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2012, 04:29:51 PM »
Let's look at some actual prices.

1985 The 94th ANA Annual Convention Commemorative Silver Medal Great Wall - Like Bonke said, this coin has gone down. I know someone who is in a PF69 coin well over $5000. It would probably bring ~$3500 or so now. I've never owned one.
1987 San Francisco International Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - Hit a high of $3000 in PF69, and $2400 raw. And there was a PF68 that auctioned off for $3000 last August by Stacks. PF69 coins are now worth $2300 and raw coins are worth under $2000.    
1987 New Orleans International Investors Conference Gold Commemorative Medal - Behaves just like the San Francisco coin so read above. A PF69 actually only went for $2175 last night. I sold a San Francisco in 69 a few weeks ago for $2400 and doubt I could do the same again. A raw coin in great condition went for $2000 in March in Shanghai.
1987 The 16th New York International Coin Exposition Gold Medal - Rarer than the mintage figure would lead you to believe. I was glad to see a coin actually auctioned off, and it brought $2850. I have no idea what they went for earlier, but people were asking $4000+ for raw/68 coins.
1988 The 1st Hong Kong Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - Hit a high of $10,000 in PF69. A raw coin went for $8300 last December in Hong Kong. I would say current fair market value for a raw coin is $6500 and $8500 for a PF69.
1988 The 97th ANA Annual Convention Commemorative Gold Medal - I know two people who are in this coin north of $4500 in PF69. Clark sold at least two for ~$3300. I bought one at $3200 and sold it a week later for $3800. A PF68 just auctioned off for $2850. I thought my sale of $3800 was a bit optimistic and would put the current fair market value for a PF69 at $3500. Whenever I say "current fair market value", that's the price at which I am extremely confident I can sell it for. Hence, I am 99% sure I could move another Cincinnati coin in PF69 at $3500, but $3800 is a stretch to me.
1988 New Orleans International Investors Conference Commemorative Gold Medal - I sold a PF68 for $2300 in December of last year. In the spring of 2011 coins in PF68 were an easy $2500. A PF68 was auctioned off by Stacks for $2540 in April.
1988 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Gold Medal - I sold a PF68 for $3000 last December. A PF68 brought $2130 in April in Shanghai, and a raw coin brought $2621 in May in Shanghai at auction. A raw coin went for $3000 in Hong Kong in December. A PF67 brought $2100 last month on eBay. A number of Munich coins came up for sale from Stacks in April. A PF69 brought $3300 and coins in 68 sold for ~$2600. If we blast back a year ago, 68 coins were worth $3000 and 69 coins were worth $4000.
1988 Basel International Coin Week Commemorative Gold Medal - Jim perfectly timed the sale of Pt coins in PF69 last fall. If I remember correctly, he sold them between $8000 and $9000. A raw Pt coin brought $7800 at Stacks last August. A raw Pt coin brought $6000 in December in Hong Kong. I sold a Pt in PF69 for $5700 in December (that was a horrible auction). I also sold an Au in PF68 for ~$5500 in January if I remember correctly. A Pt in PF66 brought $3900 in April at Stacks. A raw Au coin in ~64-66 condition brought $3100 a few weeks ago in Shanghai. A raw Pt in great condition went for $5100 in March in Shanghai. I now consider Pt coins worth $5000 in raw/68 and worth $5750 in PF69, with Au coins being worth $5500 in raw/68 and $6200 or so in PF69.
1989 The 2nd Hong Kong Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - I remember when Peter wrote about this coin and the price spiked a bit, reaching $2800 last summer for coins in PF69. A PF69 brought $2500 in March in Shanghai, then another PF69 only went for $2000 in late April in Shanghai. A PF68 went for $1300 in May in Shanghai. A PF69 got one bid at $2300 in May on eBay.
1989-1995 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Gold Medal - A number of coins, both raw and graded, have come up for sale recently in Shanghai. On average, coins in raw condition have been bringing $1300 and coins in PF68 have been bringing $1800 or so. The 1/2 Oz. gold Munich coins in raw condition used to bring $2300 and some coins in PF69 went for close to $3000 less than a year ago.
1990 The 19th Zurich International Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - The Zurich has always been the most interesting medal to me. A raw coin went for $8900 in December in Hong Kong. Another raw coin brought $8400 in Shanghai in December. Two raw coins were auctioned off last August by Stacks, one went for $7800 and the other went for $9600. There has been a lack of sales this year for Zurich coins, but I sold a raw coin a month ago for $6500.
1990-1997 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Silver Medal - The silver Munich medals have also gone down. I sold a number of coins in both PF68 and PF69 in January, getting $700 even for the PF68 coins and getting $900 for the PF69 coins. Now, silver Munich coins seem to be consistently going for $550 or so. Last spring $1000 was the norm for raw/68 and $1200 or so was the going price for coins in PF69.

I don't know much about the larger silver medals or the bimetal coins. And I'm not even going to mention the God of War & Wealth coins or the Pagodas. Oh, and the 97 Munich 12 Oz. went from $43,000 to $15,000. To sum up, here are 52-week ranges for some popular medals:

1985 The 94th ANA Annual Convention Commemorative Silver Medal Great Wall - $6900 for a PF69 to $2200 for a PF68
1987 San Francisco International Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal -  $3000 for a PF69 to $2400 for a PF69 20   
1987 New Orleans International Investors Conference Gold Commemorative Medal - $3000 for a PF69 to $2175 for a PF69 28
1988 The 1st Hong Kong Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - $10,000 for a PF69 to... who knows, but most likely under $9000
1988 The 97th ANA Annual Convention Commemorative Gold Medal - $4500 for a PF69 to $3300 for a PF69 (Clark was low at $3300, $3500 is a more fair current price) 10
1988 New Orleans International Investors Conference Commemorative Gold Medal - The coin has held its value over the last twelve months at $2500 for a PF68 0
1988 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Gold Medal - $3000 for a PF68 to $2130 for a PF68 29
1988 Basel International Coin Week Commemorative Gold Medal - $7800 for a raw Pt to $5100 for a raw Pt 35
1989 The 2nd Hong Kong Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - $2800 for a PF69 to ~$2150 for a PF69 24
1989-1995 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Gold Medal - $2300 for raw coins to $1300 for raw coins 45
1990 The 19th Zurich International Coin Exposition Commemorative Gold Medal - $9600 for a raw coin to $6500 for a raw coin 33
1990-1997 Munich International Coin Fair Commemorative Silver Medal - $1000 for raw coins to $550 for raw coins 45

Different coins perform at different times. There's no magic answer for why prices behave the way they do. Medals have dropped, key date gold Pandas and 70 coins have done great.

Also, just for fun, here's a possible scenario: You bought a medal near the top of the market. On average, all of the above coins are down 25%. Let's say your coin was worth $3000 when you bought it and worth roughly $2250 now. You fail to sell it privately and have to resort to eBay, like most non-dealers do. Your auction goes great and the winning bid is $2250. After eBay (9%) and Paypal (3%) fees of $270, you're left with $1980. A 25% paper loss turns into a 34% loss after the selling process.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2012, 04:40:45 PM by adamc4 »

Offline exchange

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2012, 04:37:39 PM »
I was always iffy and still am when it comes to medals. I only buy medals officially issued by the PRC, my only exception is the 1993 Ghenghis Khan medal. That's just me, as I feel more comfortable knowing that. The few medals I have were purchased within the last year.
I don't have many, paid roughly an average price of $125 per silver medal. Most of them I just don't see for sale so I would not know how they are doing, also I do not often look for them which may be the reason why I don't see them, however my downside is limited to spot (that is what collapsing means to me).

These are my medals. Nothing really sexy about them, however they met my criteria.

1996 The Centenary of the Birth of Mao Ze Min silver medal, 1oz - mintage 10,000
1993 Ghenghis Khan silver medal, 1oz.  - mintage 5000
1994 Mei Lanfang silver medal set, 1oz each medal - mintage 2000
1994 Construction Achievement of China Special Economic Zone silver medals set, 1oz each medal - mintage 4500
1987 to 1989 gold god medals set of five, 1\4oz each medal - mintage 2000


exchange
« Last Edit: May 13, 2012, 04:45:01 PM by exchange »

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2012, 04:43:18 PM »
Nice summary.

I had been following the category and had ballparked about a ten to fifteen percent decline average, some more, some less.

Its a smaller market, and as as been noted, is more dependant on getting consistent bids from a small group of collectors/ investors to hold it up and move it forward. If the bids get scarcer, even slightly, prices drop as the few sellers who need to sell, establish the new lower price.

I think those with "extra" cash / dry powder can pick up bargains if sellers need to liquidate.

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2012, 05:13:59 PM »
It looks like a 88 HK Expo sold for $9250 in PF69, which was a surprise to me. That's a strong price for this coin and the seller should be happy.

Also, I accidentally left some numbers I was working with in my original post. Woops

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2012, 05:37:11 PM »
Lets not forget the usual articles about the upcoming coin shortage. Konajim had a recent post here, the Pricepedia mentioned the river of coins headed back to China.  Many others have mentioned it.  Maybe no one believes it until it hits our market.  Low supply means all Chinese coins will see a price increase.  Prices should bounce right back to their former highs.  How can it not happen?........

Offline bonke

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #11 on: May 13, 2012, 06:59:53 PM »
Wow!  Adam, you have the best information.

I just "get a feeling" about the market.  My analysis is so simplistic or rudimentary that it is embarassing.     

As an example, I previewed the 1984 3.3oz silver medal in Kowloon in early April.  It was a wonderful example of a well-known silver medal with a planned mintage of 200 and an estimated actual mintage of 68 (split between proof and matte).  Champion Auctions was calling for an opening bid of $6000 (plus commission).  No one bid.  The item was passed.  Yes, it was raw.  Still, it looked wonderful.  Quite collectible!  There may have been a reserve above this $6000 opening bid.  We will never know.  This is a medal which was sold in prior Hong Kong auctions for large sums.

Often, my "feelings" about the market are not correct.  Recently, I made an offer for a 1988 1oz gold first Hong Kong coin expo medal.  My offer was instantly rejected as inappropriate.  Obviously, for this medal from this seller, I did not have a good feel for the market.  If I remember correctly, the seller was asking $8800 and it sold for $9250.  I was offering a small fraction of this amount. 

The mysteries of the marketplace.  Why will a buyer pay $9250 for a medal with a mintage of 500 and not make an opening bid of $6000 on a medal with an estimated mintage of 68 (between two varieties)?  Maybe, the former is gold and the latter is silver?  A mystery to me.

NGC has recently started authenticating, grading and slabbing many new modern Chinese medals.  One dealer is the dominant person, working with NGC to get these medals authenticated and into the marketplace.  It is a wonderful time for collectors.  I am pleased to be one. 

Mark Bonke   

 

Offline Obsidian

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #12 on: May 13, 2012, 07:14:29 PM »
The mysteries of the marketplace.  Why will a buyer pay $9250 for a medal with a mintage of 500 and not make an opening bid of $6000 on a medal with an estimated mintage of 68 (between two varieties)?  Maybe, the former is gold and the latter is silver?  A mystery to me.



I think the answer is popularity.  The 88 HK expo has always been a very popular medal. It has a very unique look and celebrates both the dragon and panda all on one coin.  Just like people will pay high prices for higher mintage coins then medals.  When it comes to medals, the 88 HK expo is one of the most "popular".  The other reason is likely that it is gold, not silver, as you mentioned.  Silver seems to have fallen out of favor a bit.  Partly I think because Chinese coins seem to have more problems with haze, milk spots, whatever you want to call it.


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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #13 on: May 13, 2012, 07:27:47 PM »
We'll see in a few minutes:  there is ending soon on ebay a gold 1988 New Orleans medal, raw, some spots in OMP.  These have a mintage of only 1500 and have been holding steady up to now as Adam wrote.
After having only a single bid, there are now two and its at just $2,125. A decent price, considering.

Offline pandaccumulator

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #14 on: May 13, 2012, 08:25:54 PM »
Nice summary Adamc4. Not only medas, I have seen 30-40% price drop on key date silver panda, such as 83-85. Any comments on the key date gold proof panda, such as 1995, 1996 gold proof panda? I remember last summer, a 1998 1 oz gold panda MS69 LD was auctioned over $6k on ebay, this month, two auctions with starting price $5400 by the same seller were ended without a single bid, both coins MS69(one NGC, one PCGS).

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #15 on: May 14, 2012, 02:24:57 AM »
Just to add some info to the 1988 Hong Kong Medal.  It was sold to a buyer in China.  I sold a 1982 1/2oz gold panda, sold to china.  1997, 2004, 2005, 2006 1/4oz gold pandas all sold to china.  2005 1/2oz gold panda sold to a buyer in China.  2000 1oz gold panda raw and damaged, China.  New Orleans Expo Panda Medal, China.  2000 and 1999 1/2 Gold Pandas, China.

I really could go on but here are the 90 day totals.  $87,000+ in inventory sold over the last 90 days.  $64,500 to China.  $8,400 to Australia.  $1975 to France.  And the balance stayed in the US.  I got FMV for all my inventory.  This doesn't include any trades that were pulled off with forum members that totaled another $40,000+   

I hope this info is useful to the forum members.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #16 on: May 14, 2012, 09:36:40 AM »
Thanks Year of the Dog.  Very good information.  My only question is when the flood of MCC is leaving the US, when will it impact price?.................

Offline Obsidian

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #17 on: May 14, 2012, 10:25:18 AM »
Thanks Year of the Dog.  Very good information.  My only question is when the flood of MCC is leaving the US, when will it impact price?.................

I'd say when the dealers / investors in the USA either sell their inventory or decide not to sell for a while.

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #18 on: May 14, 2012, 01:17:27 PM »
Thanks for the heads-up on that 88 New Orleans raw auction, Underbidder. Looks like it only went for $2125. Later last night somebody also bought the more common 87 New Orleans coin in raw condition for $2300. I guess they missed the PF69 auction hours earlier that ended at $2175. A couple of 1/2 Oz. gold Munich Expo Pandas in PF69 were auctioned off in Shanghai last night, all selling for between $1800 and $2000.

"As an example, I previewed the 1984 3.3oz silver medal in Kowloon in early April.  It was a wonderful example of a well-known silver medal with a planned mintage of 200 and an estimated actual mintage of 68 (split between proof and matte).  Champion Auctions was calling for an opening bid of $6000 (plus commission).  No one bid.  The item was passed.  Yes, it was raw.  Still, it looked wonderful.  Quite collectible!  There may have been a reserve above this $6000 opening bid.  We will never know.  This is a medal which was sold in prior Hong Kong auctions for large sums."

Two results for that medal. The proof version, in PF64, brought $5650 (that price includes the BP) last night in a healthy auction: http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1545869-detail.shtml. And a raw matte version brought $3280 but with only one bid: http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1557354-detail.shtml. A far cry from the $14,700 result in 2011 (although I do not know which variety that was, or in what condition).
« Last Edit: May 14, 2012, 01:33:55 PM by adamc4 »

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #19 on: May 14, 2012, 01:30:38 PM »
  There are exceptions such as the 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity. 


I am looking for this, 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity, in case anyone is selling.
 U/B



Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #20 on: May 15, 2012, 11:52:31 PM »
A couple of random thoughts. The 97 Munich 12 Oz. had one, single, solitary spike to $41,000. Was that its true market value? Did it really collapse? Two years earlier it was a $2,000 item. If you paid $2,000 than $15,000 still looks pretty good.

Would you have done better in silver bullion? Anyone who bought at $50/oz. has lost nearly half the value of their purchase.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector.com
« Last Edit: May 16, 2012, 12:00:55 AM by PandaCollector »

Year of the Dog

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2012, 12:04:47 AM »
So is the market collapsing for these medals?  In a short answer what does everybody think?  There are a lot of good examples of sales and data being posted on this thread but not as many "yes" "no" opinions.

I would say "no"

based solely on the coins I have, and have sold.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2012, 12:27:06 AM »
Canaco - now THAT'S a collapse.

Down 66% today.   Can.v

So what's this talk about a collapse in medals all about?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #23 on: May 16, 2012, 12:30:58 AM »
I vote "no" as well, but it depends on what you paid for your medals. Badon and Tamo published a guide to coin investing last year that contains a great truism: profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. That is if you buy at good prices, when everyone isn't clamoring for the same thing, your chances of making money are much better than if you buy when everyone is saying that this is a sure thing, and that you can't lose. Or at least that's how I read it.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector.com


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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #24 on: May 16, 2012, 12:39:00 AM »
What is your definiion of collapse?  25%?  50%?

Then no, except ovepriced Pagoda sets. 

In general, the silver medals have declined more.  Some due to revelations of higher numbers than thought, and plated versions. 
Silver is always more volatile. Buying the latest hot fad always has the danger of buying at the top.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #25 on: May 16, 2012, 12:47:05 AM »
I would say that the Pagoda set is the all time example of a MCC or medal collapse.  If all other Medals are compared to this set than I would say that the rest of the medals market is just as up and down as any other market.  I think great Gold Medals like the 1988 Basel Au and Pt are fine and have been harder to find over the last year.  The 1988 Hong Kong Expo did as good as I could have hoped and showed a lot of interest as I received multiple bids daily for that Medal.  Some I'm curious about are the 1989 2nd Hong Kong Expo 1oz silvers.  Also the 1989 New York Expo 1oz Gold, I recently sold the Pt. version of this medal and it did great but the gold hasn't seemed to exciting.

Again if your comparing all medals to the pagodas than medals are fine in general.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #26 on: May 16, 2012, 01:31:31 AM »
Does it all go back to mintage when the market lines out?  If so, the 12oz Munich had 250 mintage.  The pagodas (4 to a set) had 260 mintage.  The Munich priced over $40,000 and the pagodas priced $6000 at their peak.  If mintage is the main price driver in the long term than the pagodas are best value at this time because who can find a 12oz Munich for sale at a decent price?  One sold for over $11,000 recently?  That will buy alot of pagodas.  The fake pagoda issue should be worked out in time.  When it is, the prices today will seem incredibly cheap.......No?..................

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #27 on: May 16, 2012, 01:38:58 AM »
Where do you find the mintage numbers for the pagoda set.  I haven't ever owned a set so I haven't seen a COA.  Can somebody post something from a China mint showing the mintage of only 260 sets.  Also were any of the pagoda medals minted in a higher quantity? 
Some Panda anniversary sets have limited sets numbered at only 1000 but each coin in the set has a different number of coins minted.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #28 on: May 16, 2012, 01:53:18 AM »
Mr Ge's book was the last one I know of.  He said 260 mintage and gave the pagodas 4 stars.  Is 5 stars the highest? .........

Offline KonaJim

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #29 on: May 16, 2012, 02:24:06 AM »
There are a few coins with 6 stars.  There are also 1/2 stars.  I think this star system was invented by Marconi.  You have to understand and I have asked, that a coin can have a higher mintage, lower value, and have more stars or vice versa.  Or as Dennis Gartmann would say it works if you are buying in Vietnamese Dong instead of dollars.  On further review, the system might have been developed by Alan Greenspan, the master of double speak.  Mr. Ge I'm sure is very knowledgeable but his star system is out of this universe. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2012, 06:02:02 AM »
Does it all go back to mintage when the market lines out?  If so, the 12oz Munich had 250 mintage.  The pagodas (4 to a set) had 260 mintage.  The Munich priced over $40,000 and the pagodas priced $6000 at their peak.  If mintage is the main price driver in the long term than the pagodas are best value at this time because who can find a 12oz Munich for sale at a decent price?  One sold for over $11,000 recently?  That will buy alot of pagodas.  The fake pagoda issue should be worked out in time.  When it is, the prices today will seem incredibly cheap.......No?..................

For medals with supposedly similar populations, I have seen many times more Pagodas than Munich medals. It's entirely possible that there are a) fewer than 250 1997 12 oz. Munich medals, b) more than 260 Pagoda sets, or c) both of the above.

It should also be noted that the same month that the 1997 Munich medal brought over $40,000 at auction in China, it also auctioned for $16,000 in Germany. I don't consider the $40,000 (actually $42,898 depending on currency translation) to have been a repeatable value for the medal. If you accept the $16,000 as a realistic level than since March 2011 its price isn't down much, at all.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
www.pandacollector .com

« Last Edit: May 16, 2012, 06:11:38 AM by PandaCollector »

Offline exchange

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2012, 08:49:37 AM »
So is the market collapsing for these medals?  In a short answer what does everybody think?  There are a lot of good examples of sales and data being posted on this thread but not as many "yes" "no" opinions.

I would say "no"

based solely on the coins I have, and have sold.

IMO, not even close of collapsing. My thinking may just be to simplistic and naive. As long as we don't get to close to spot its all fine. The argument here is it may very well be close to spot one day as gold and silver become once again monetary vehicles for which then prices will be quite high in turn offsetting premiums paid for the medals.

So lets say a 1 ounce gold medal today sells for double spot, 100% premium. To round things of, a 1oz gold medal will cost you $3000 .
Now lets say spot gold goes to $4500, but now the premium is only 40%. Your medal is now worth $6300. While spot tripled, the medal more than doubled. Thats not a bad return for taking risk.
Sure, several medals currently have premiums of 200%, 300%, etc... over spot and the results will vary. Lets say you purchased a 1 ounce gold medal today for $4500, 300% over spot. At one point spot hits $4500 and your premium is again 40%. Your medal would be worth $6300.

If we assume the price of gold continues to rise, (not an absurd projection)  the smaller premiums that we may possibly get in the future may be a non factor. These scenario do not include the China factor and its population, so I may very well be to conservative.


exchange

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #32 on: May 26, 2012, 01:25:19 AM »
"A couple of random thoughts. The 97 Munich 12 Oz. had one, single, solitary spike to $41,000. Was that its true market value? Did it really collapse? Two years earlier it was a $2,000 item. If you paid $2,000 than $15,000 still looks pretty good."

Areas of this market, like the big Munich medals, are so illiquid that to be honest I can't be picky when it comes to auction data. Tons of coins had single, solitary spikes. And during a bull market these figures are pointed at to show people the strength of the market, but in a bear market some people (not you Peter) point at them and say "Oh, that was just an anomaly". All I'm saying is that in a market that's so thinly traded I feel that to be objective about the data I have to give equal weight to all prices. At the end of the day these coins are only worth as much as what the next person is willing to pay, and if somebody was willing to pay what now seems like an exorbitant amount, then that was what the coin was worth at that point in time.

"Would you have done better in silver bullion? Anyone who bought at $50/oz. has lost nearly half the value of their purchase."

For the most part I feel comparisons between commodity markets and modern Chinese coins are overdone. I feel collectibles like art, wine, or numismatic high end coins are more similar (when it comes to what drives those asset classes) than the relationship between numismatic pieces and bullion markets.

"I vote "no" as well, but it depends on what you paid for your medals."

I disagree on that fact that what you paid for your medals has any relationship to how the market is currently doing. Maybe on an individual basis someone bought these medals a while back and is still up significantly from their purchase price, but I don't look at markets that way. I look at recent auction data for modern Chinese medals and notice that the trend is down.

"Again if your comparing all medals to the pagodas than medals are fine in general."

I don't like to judge the performance of a market relative to the most extreme example. That's like saying "Hey, the S&P hasn't gone anywhere in the past three months but compared to First Solar (down 50%) the market is doing awesome". The S&P isn't doing awesome, it's flat.

"Mr. Ge I'm sure is very knowledgeable but his star system is out of this universe."

Agreed.

"It should also be noted that the same month that the 1997 Munich medal brought over $40,000 at auction in China, it also auctioned for $16,000 in Germany."

Interesting, thanks for the info.

And now for some figures:

1987 1 Oz. Gold Panda San Francisco Expo Raw for $2000 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/230795010271
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Cincinnati Expo in PF68 for $3500 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/370610039140
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Basel Pt. Raw for $5000 --> http://www.ebay.com/itm/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?item=320892121347
1988 1 Oz. Gold Panda Basel Pt in PF69 for $7100 (BP included) http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572912-detail.shtml
1991 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $1700 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572321-detail.shtml
1992 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $1340 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572913-detail.shtml
1997 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF69 for $5340 (BP included) --> http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572349-detail.shtml
1997 1/2 Oz. Gold Panda Munich Expo in PF68 for $4075 (BP included) -- http://english.zhaoonline.com/detail/auction-1572348-detail.shtml

Offline adamc4

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #33 on: May 26, 2012, 01:51:04 AM »
"How is it defined?"

That's the thing. I don't know his methodology and thus don't put that much into his rankings. Overall, it's a good book to have. No single source of information should dictate buying decisions, I like to synthesize info from a variety of sources and do my own due diligence.

I don't keep track of the lunar coins but yes, the price of matte silver YoC coins has dropped. Coins in SP69 are going for roughly $8000-$9000 now when they brought $12,000+ last fall. Raw coins are bringing $4500. The gold YoC coins in PF69 have dropped from ~$3300 to ~$2750.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2014, 05:27:36 PM »
Anyone know where I can find a raw 1985 Great Wall medal?  What would be the approximate cost.  I was doing some reading on the medal, what a fascinating history.  Anyone know the actual mintage of this medal.  I think Bonke said 500 or even as low as 160?  No wonder they are hard to find. Bonke, you have a 69?  Damn, that thing must fetch 10k? Wow.

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #35 on: April 09, 2014, 07:31:48 AM »
Why would the China medals market be collapsing? Medals are of smaller mintages than coins, hence more rare and hard-to-find.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #36 on: April 09, 2014, 07:33:42 AM »
 N31. Do you have a 1985 Great Wall I can buy?

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #37 on: April 09, 2014, 07:59:15 AM »
N31. Do you have a 1985 Great Wall I can buy?

Nope. I wish I got into collecting pandas sooner.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #38 on: April 09, 2014, 08:13:37 AM »
Dang, with all your chinese connections you can't find me one for a few hundred dollars?   N66   :tongue_smilie:

some speculate there are only 100+ of these because of the error.  Look at this listing.  Ain't cheap, but I know you can find me a raw one for a few hundred bucks thru your chinese friends?  :001_tt2:

http://www.ebay.com/itm/351016939942?ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1423.l2649

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #39 on: April 09, 2014, 08:24:08 AM »
Why would the China medals market be collapsing? Medals are of smaller mintages than coins, hence more rare and hard-to-find.
1. Medal has less demand in China
2. Due to high premium over spot,  medal has almost no melt
3. Due to melt on bullion coins, lots of keydates have less surviving pop than medals

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #40 on: April 09, 2014, 08:29:50 AM »
Anyone know where I can find a raw 1985 Great Wall medal?  What would be the approximate cost.  I was doing some reading on the medal, what a fascinating history.  Anyone know the actual mintage of this medal.  I think Bonke said 500 or even as low as 160?  No wonder they are hard to find. Bonke, you have a 69?  Damn, that thing must fetch 10k? Wow.

Only chance to get it is to go to auctions in China.  I thought it was overpriced and passed one couple of years ago.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #41 on: April 09, 2014, 08:30:14 AM »
hmm. what do you mean by melt?  folks melt these coins done just for the silver content?  Are they nuts?  N17

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #42 on: April 09, 2014, 08:36:13 AM »
hmm. what do you mean by melt?  folks melt these coins done just for the silver content?  Are they nuts?  N17

Lots of 90's coins got melt due to lack of demand.  And dealers could get their money back quickly that way.  Remember lots of keydates today back then were only sold with little premium over spot,  some were even lower than or on spot.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #43 on: April 09, 2014, 08:43:27 AM »
Wow!  That is amazing.  Where was I when this happened...oh, I know, oblivious to then precious metal world while partying in college.  Damn! If you happen to find a 1985 raw medal, let me know, I'd be interested.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #44 on: April 09, 2014, 11:40:38 AM »
I know Clark Smith had a 1985 Great Wall for sale for a few months, but it was sold quite recently.  It does show up once in a while, but expect to pay $3000 to $5000 for it.  Even raw one won't be cheap:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/China-1985-ANA-Convention-1-oz-silver-Proof-Medal-GREAT-WALL-original-holder-/351002292514?nma=true&si=kiOCSkgX8rQNAXvabJ2ZVO%252F5hvU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

This forum has many active discussions on the topic of medal.  You may want to use the search engine located on top right of each page to search for them.  Click the magnifier glass to refine your search.  Some notable discussions are 1984 great wall: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4488.0,   1984 pagoda (many threads), goldfish and many more.

Several forum members have special interest in medal such as RAREMEDAL, bonke and dealers like shibaji and sasushi.  These are just names from the top of my head, if I missed others please feel free to speak up.

An interesting first-hand account of coin melt from PeterPanda, the owner of PandaAmerica: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2357.msg12130#msg12130
An article on jb008.cn about large scale melting of Chinese coins: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=18.msg15048#msg15048

PS, I thought you already have a 1985 great wall?
I have 1 of the 1985 ANA medals of the Great Wall (mintage? Speculation 500), and those are hard to come by...they are in strong hands, and ain't cheap. 

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #45 on: April 09, 2014, 12:02:01 PM »
1. Medal has less demand in China
2. Due to high premium over spot,  medal has almost no melt
3. Due to melt on bullion coins, lots of keydates have less surviving pop than medals

Thanks for the info.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #46 on: April 09, 2014, 12:08:19 PM »
Lots of 90's coins got melt due to lack of demand.  And dealers could get their money back quickly that way.  Remember lots of keydates today back then were only sold with little premium over spot,  some were even lower than or on spot.

I don't know what kind of mentality those dealers have.

I mean, isn't a silver coin minted by an official mint more valuable than a self-melt, home-made silver bar?

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #47 on: April 09, 2014, 12:21:03 PM »
I know Clark Smith had a 1985 Great Wall for sale for a few months, but it was sold quite recently.  It does show up once in a while, but expect to pay $3000 to $5000 for it.  Even raw one won't be cheap:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/China-1985-ANA-Convention-1-oz-silver-Proof-Medal-GREAT-WALL-original-holder-/351002292514?nma=true&si=kiOCSkgX8rQNAXvabJ2ZVO%252F5hvU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557
A few hundred dollars for a medal of 4.5 stars on Huang's list is not realistic. I saw only one selling for less than $2000 lately.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #48 on: April 09, 2014, 12:49:41 PM »
I know Clark Smith had a 1985 Great Wall for sale for a few months, but it was sold quite recently.  It does show up once in a while, but expect to pay $3000 to $5000 for it.  Even raw one won't be cheap:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/China-1985-ANA-Convention-1-oz-silver-Proof-Medal-GREAT-WALL-original-holder-/351002292514?nma=true&si=kiOCSkgX8rQNAXvabJ2ZVO%252F5hvU%253D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

This forum has many active discussions on the topic of medal.  You may want to use the search engine located on top right of each page to search for them.  Click the magnifier glass to refine your search.  Some notable discussions are 1984 great wall: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4488.0,   1984 pagoda (many threads), goldfish and many more.

Several forum members have special interest in medal such as RAREMEDAL, bonke and dealers like shibaji and sasushi.  These are just names from the top of my head, if I missed others please feel free to speak up.

An interesting first-hand account of coin melt from PeterPanda, the owner of PandaAmerica: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2357.msg12130#msg12130
An article on jb008.cn about large scale melting of Chinese coins: http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=18.msg15048#msg15048

PS, I thought you already have a 1985 great wall?

Wow!  Great info.  Thanks for sharing all this detail.  Good stuff for sure.  I have some reading to do!  I do have 1 NGC68.  I'm looking for another. :-). Obviously was kidding about the few hundred dollar price - that would be a fake (IMHO).  But if someone has one they'd be willing to unload, I'm a buyer - depending on how much of course.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #49 on: April 09, 2014, 12:50:48 PM »
A few hundred dollars for a medal of 4.5 stars on Huang's list is not realistic. I saw only one selling for less than $2000 lately.

What is Huangs list?  Link?  Also, if you see one again, for under 2k, can you let me know, please. Thanks.

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #50 on: April 09, 2014, 02:13:17 PM »
What is Huangs list?  Link?  Also, if you see one again, for under 2k, can you let me know, please. Thanks.
Here is the link to Huang's ranking of Chinese medals: http://modern-chinese-numismatic-info.blogspot.com/2012/11/huang-ruiyong-olive-is-one-of-pioneers.html

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Offline trozau

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #52 on: April 09, 2014, 05:31:07 PM »
Who is Huang and how did he come up with his ratings for MCC materials? Just curious.
trozau (troy ounce gold)
honi soit qui mal y pense

gold - the barbarous relic!

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #53 on: April 09, 2014, 05:36:27 PM »
Who is Huang and how did he come up with his ratings for MCC materials? Just curious.

Hey, as a side note, I'll take your barbarous relic.  Since it is a relic, and gold, would you take free? hehehehe.

Offline trozau

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #54 on: April 09, 2014, 05:39:52 PM »
Hey, as a side note, I'll take your barbarous relic.  Since it is a relic, and gold, would you take free? hehehehe.
When Lord John Maynard Keynes attacked the gold standard, he called "gold" a "barbarous relic". Being a minion of scorn, I decided to use this harsh moniker for gold as my gold collection name.
trozau (troy ounce gold)
honi soit qui mal y pense

gold - the barbarous relic!

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2014, 05:42:47 PM »
When Lord John Maynard Keynes attacked the gold standard, he called "gold" a "barbarous relic". Being a minion of scorn, I decided to use this harsh moniker for gold as my gold collection name.

LOL.  I figured as much, but hey, doesn't hurt asking for free, right. LOL.  By the way, if you navigate on Huangs site (right side, start from the bottom), you'll find out who he is...he seems to be very astute in matters related to MCC.

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2014, 05:51:24 PM »
Who is Huang and how did he come up with his ratings for MCC materials? Just curious.
Huang is one of the high priests in MCC. He worked for Oracle before turning to MCC. He studied and wrote extensively on MCC, including some of the lectures I translated on my blog.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #57 on: April 10, 2014, 08:20:37 AM »
Huang is one of the high priests in MCC. He worked for Oracle before turning to MCC. He studied and wrote extensively on MCC, including some of the lectures I translated on my blog.

I went thru his blog last night!  Wow.  For being a 'newbie' he's one knowledgeable guy in the china coin/medal market.  Thanks for sharing the info!

Offline trozau

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #58 on: April 10, 2014, 08:38:54 AM »
I went thru his blog last night!  Wow.  For being a 'newbie' he's one knowledgeable guy in the china coin/medal market.  Thanks for sharing the info!

So which medals and coins in your collection are on Huang's Star Ranking List?
trozau (troy ounce gold)
honi soit qui mal y pense

gold - the barbarous relic!

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #59 on: April 10, 2014, 08:47:54 AM »
So which medals and coins in your collection are on Huang's Star Ranking List?

I'd like to say a 'ton', but unfortunately the only one I have is the 1985 ANA Great Wall.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #60 on: April 11, 2014, 12:00:05 PM »
Here is the link to Huang's ranking of Chinese medals: http://modern-chinese-numismatic-info.blogspot.com/2012/11/huang-ruiyong-olive-is-one-of-pioneers.html

Strange, the 2013 expo medal is not on the list.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #61 on: April 11, 2014, 12:02:02 PM »
Strange, the 2013 expo medal is not on the list.

Looks like a lot of older dates.

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #62 on: April 11, 2014, 12:11:15 PM »
Looks like a lot of older dates.

Let me guess, he didn't managed to get the 2013 expo medal? lol

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #63 on: April 11, 2014, 12:12:44 PM »
Strange, the 2013 expo medal is not on the list.
This list was compiled a few years back. Huang said he would update it but I have not received his latest list. Anyways, newer medals are not likely to be listed as they are still readily available. (Don't just look at eBay.)

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #64 on: April 11, 2014, 12:17:12 PM »
This list was compiled a few years back. Huang said he would update it but I have not received his latest list. Anyways, newer medals are not likely to be listed as they are still readily available. (Don't just look at eBay.)

Dang, I'm disappointed my beloved 2013 expo panda medal won't be on the list till a few years later. :crying:

Someone please invent me a time machine! N24

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #65 on: April 11, 2014, 12:22:41 PM »
Let me guess, he didn't managed to get the 2013 expo medal? lol
You may not know that the so-called "2013 expo" was sponsored by Huang's organization, among others. Here are some pictures of that expo: http://www.coin001.com/read.php?tid=38537

Huang wrote about this medal. You can use Goolge Translate to get the gist: http://www.shbiz.com.cn/Item/220205.aspx.  He was advertizing for it.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #66 on: April 11, 2014, 12:26:13 PM »
You may not know that the so-called "2013 expo" was sponsored by Huang's organization, among others. Here are some pictures of that expo: http://www.coin001.com/read.php?tid=38537

Huang wrote about this medal. You can use Goolge Translate to get the gist: http://www.shbiz.com.cn/Item/220205.aspx.  He was advertizing for it.

Can someone translate the articles in English for me? Thanks in advance.

I used google translate and I got this:

Although hastily set thirty Panda concentrated flavor - View of the First Chinese Panda gold coin collection Expo

On hand一枚first Chinese Panda gold coins to commemorate the Silver Collection Exposition , the latest work for the Shanghai Mint by Mr. Yu Min featuring design and sculpture. This year is the Chinese Panda coins issued to commemorate the 30th anniversary . Looking back 30 years ago , it was designed by a Mr. Yu Min carved 1983 27 grams silver panda coin won the World Series Claus "World's Best Silver Coin " award , which is the first Chinese coin was " the world's best silver " title. That year, Mr. Yu Min is only 24 years old , although inexperienced, natural talent overflowing. Fu Cheong away lapel , Yi Xing Fei Trent . Turned out 27 grams of silver panda panda stroke laid him in gold and silver coins , and even a whole new position in the Chinese currency altar carved in the field of design .

    Panda gold coin issued today, Mr. Yu Min is one of the varieties of carving up to people involved in the design . Whether gold and silver , regardless of size , regardless of Cape essence, whether single or dual cat cat three cats, cat fans everywhere Mr. Yu Min sword works. However, Mr. Yu Min fairly low profile, rarely accepted outside interviews, rarely participate in currency altar event. So many cats fans wonder if he was actually Chinese Panda gold coin design first.

    Panda gold coin , is the cornerstone of the new Chinese precious metal coins . Panda coins , as the world's most influential investment gold. Panda coins, the most international range of children of Chinese coins . Before Mid-Autumn Festival , China Gold Coin Corporation in Shanghai , Beijing and Shenzhen to test the water buyback Panda coins , and finally let everyone understand: From our side more than a super cash , which is included artwork , precious metals and cash function as one of the panda coins. If the test results are good water , repurchase Panda coins of the major commercial banks in the country will eventually roll out networks . This will greatly inspire the general public to become the new generation of Pakistan by master gold complex.

    Panda coin , it is the best way to make working-class precious metal coins into the temple of the aristocratic collections . Personally, I have always stressed that although the amount of wealth , but the currency itself is more important than knowledge of the amount of wealth . Panda coins onset to 30 years ago. Initially only one manufacturer Shanghai Mint , Shenyang Mint after 1988 portrait also joined in 1996, and add more recruits : Shenzhen David Mint . Due to the small size of the general system of the Panda coin manufacturing and refining capacity, and involve a number of Mint manufacture , and therefore do not study its version , site, brochures, packaging , mirror and sand quality , stamped , survive in the world , as well as its derivative produced privately- glass paperweight , acrylic paperweight , necklaces, coins cards, etc. , have become the way to explore the cat fans relish .

    There are two kinds of precious coins : one is man-made precious , as kind of a very small circulation coins and currency ; another currency requires deep knowledge in order to dig out a very rare version of the common varieties in another currency . In a sense, the latter is more rare , because the money and the opportunity to be able to rely on the former into the arms , while the latter is the first prerequisite for the realization of its currency to make one crazy .

    The Panda gold coin collection Expo brings together the north and south of cat fans . Men are , gathered in Shanghai . Historical Panda kind , the concept of treasures , the cross enthusiasts friend , the brilliant play of Silver . If Panda coins fairs can continue to extend , in time , this good fortune cat Silver as a status symbol senior cat fans . A chapter in hand, close to countless envious eyes . As we all know , gold and silver coins for collection and investment dual function. If the collection for the first, after the investment , the process enjoyable , the results of fullness. Only heavy investment and light collection, lost not only fun , but a good attitude is difficult . So alone Lele , Lele is better with people . And if the cat fans numerous studies a thick atmosphere , high academic standards day, as everyone lucky , lucky coins altar too . Look forward to this event ; also sincerely hope that one day , Panda gold coins blooming everywhere in the vast land , no more than the enemy .

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #67 on: April 11, 2014, 12:29:59 PM »
You may not know that the so-called "2013 expo" was sponsored by Huang's organization, among others. Here are some pictures of that expo: http://www.coin001.com/read.php?tid=38537

Huang wrote about this medal. You can use Goolge Translate to get the gist: http://www.shbiz.com.cn/Item/220205.aspx.  He was advertizing for it.

Wow.  Very nice. I saw the medal in the pictures.  I also saw the 2008 Panda Banknote box with 2 medals...another one of my all time favorites!! :-)

Thanks for sharing

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« Reply #68 on: April 11, 2014, 12:30:43 PM »
Can someone translate the articles in English for me? Thanks in advance.

I used google translate and I got this:

Although hastily set thirty Panda concentrated flavor - View of the First Chinese Panda gold coin collection Expo

On hand一枚first Chinese Panda gold coins to commemorate the Silver Collection Exposition , the latest work for the Shanghai Mint by Mr. Yu Min featuring design and sculpture. This year is the Chinese Panda coins issued to commemorate the 30th anniversary . Looking back 30 years ago , it was designed by a Mr. Yu Min carved 1983 27 grams silver panda coin won the World Series Claus "World's Best Silver Coin " award , which is the first Chinese coin was " the world's best silver " title. That year, Mr. Yu Min is only 24 years old , although inexperienced, natural talent overflowing. Fu Cheong away lapel , Yi Xing Fei Trent . Turned out 27 grams of silver panda panda stroke laid him in gold and silver coins , and even a whole new position in the Chinese currency altar carved in the field of design .

    Panda gold coin issued today, Mr. Yu Min is one of the varieties of carving up to people involved in the design . Whether gold and silver , regardless of size , regardless of Cape essence, whether single or dual cat cat three cats, cat fans everywhere Mr. Yu Min sword works. However, Mr. Yu Min fairly low profile, rarely accepted outside interviews, rarely participate in currency altar event. So many cats fans wonder if he was actually Chinese Panda gold coin design first.

    Panda gold coin , is the cornerstone of the new Chinese precious metal coins . Panda coins , as the world's most influential investment gold. Panda coins, the most international range of children of Chinese coins . Before Mid-Autumn Festival , China Gold Coin Corporation in Shanghai , Beijing and Shenzhen to test the water buyback Panda coins , and finally let everyone understand: From our side more than a super cash , which is included artwork , precious metals and cash function as one of the panda coins. If the test results are good water , repurchase Panda coins of the major commercial banks in the country will eventually roll out networks . This will greatly inspire the general public to become the new generation of Pakistan by master gold complex.

    Panda coin , it is the best way to make working-class precious metal coins into the temple of the aristocratic collections . Personally, I have always stressed that although the amount of wealth , but the currency itself is more important than knowledge of the amount of wealth . Panda coins onset to 30 years ago. Initially only one manufacturer Shanghai Mint , Shenyang Mint after 1988 portrait also joined in 1996, and add more recruits : Shenzhen David Mint . Due to the small size of the general system of the Panda coin manufacturing and refining capacity, and involve a number of Mint manufacture , and therefore do not study its version , site, brochures, packaging , mirror and sand quality , stamped , survive in the world , as well as its derivative produced privately- glass paperweight , acrylic paperweight , necklaces, coins cards, etc. , have become the way to explore the cat fans relish .

    There are two kinds of precious coins : one is man-made precious , as kind of a very small circulation coins and currency ; another currency requires deep knowledge in order to dig out a very rare version of the common varieties in another currency . In a sense, the latter is more rare , because the money and the opportunity to be able to rely on the former into the arms , while the latter is the first prerequisite for the realization of its currency to make one crazy .

    The Panda gold coin collection Expo brings together the north and south of cat fans . Men are , gathered in Shanghai . Historical Panda kind , the concept of treasures , the cross enthusiasts friend , the brilliant play of Silver . If Panda coins fairs can continue to extend , in time , this good fortune cat Silver as a status symbol senior cat fans . A chapter in hand, close to countless envious eyes . As we all know , gold and silver coins for collection and investment dual function. If the collection for the first, after the investment , the process enjoyable , the results of fullness. Only heavy investment and light collection, lost not only fun , but a good attitude is difficult . So alone Lele , Lele is better with people . And if the cat fans numerous studies a thick atmosphere , high academic standards day, as everyone lucky , lucky coins altar too . Look forward to this event ; also sincerely hope that one day , Panda gold coins blooming everywhere in the vast land , no more than the enemy .

Thanks so much!!

Offline Pandagongzi

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #69 on: April 11, 2014, 12:31:07 PM »
Dang, I'm disappointed my beloved 2013 expo panda medal won't be on the list till a few years later. :crying:

Someone please invent me a time machine! N24

Just wait for 30 years.  It will be on the list.  Sometimes huang is just talking about his own investment book.

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #70 on: April 11, 2014, 12:32:38 PM »
Dang, I'm disappointed my beloved 2013 expo panda medal won't be on the list till a few years later. :crying:

Someone please invent me a time machine! N24
It's going to take quite a few years. 85 ANA and 84 Hong Kong Expo are still popping up now and then.

For your information, this medal (as well as the "Garden Series") was initiated by a group of advanced collectors in China, who commissioned Shanghai Mint for striking it. They are beautiful medals, but they are different from the "official" medals, and may not be included in the catalogs from China Gold Coin Inc. or Mr. Ge.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #71 on: April 11, 2014, 12:33:56 PM »
Thanks so much!!

You have any idea what the article was saying?

It's all gibberish English.

For example, what is this sentence saying?

"If the test results are good water , repurchase Panda coins of the major commercial banks in the country will eventually roll out networks . This will greatly inspire the general public to become the new generation of Pakistan by master gold complex."

How is the medal related to Pakistan?

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #72 on: April 11, 2014, 12:35:03 PM »
You have any idea what the article was saying?

It's all gibberish English.

For example, what is this sentence saying?

"If the test results are good water , repurchase Panda coins of the major commercial banks in the country will eventually roll out networks . This will greatly inspire the general public to become the new generation of Pakistan by master gold complex."

How is the medal related to Pakistan?

lol! I thanked first and read later...didn't understand a word. :-)

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #73 on: April 11, 2014, 12:37:38 PM »
It's going to take quite a few years. 85 ANA and 84 Hong Kong Expo are still popping up now and then.

For your information, this medal (as well as the "Garden Series") was initiated by a group of advanced collectors in China, who commissioned Shanghai Mint for striking it. They are beautiful medals, but they are different from the "official" medals, and may not be included in the catalogs from China Gold Coin Inc. or Mr. Ge.
Just wait for 30 years.  It will be on the list.  Sometimes huang is just talking about his own investment book.

I'm going to grow old and may even die before this medal become "hot".

This is worse than life annuity. N24

But thank god, I still love the beauty of this medal. :001_wub:

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #74 on: April 11, 2014, 12:39:32 PM »
lol! I thanked first and read later...didn't understand a word. :-)

Why that website didn't have an English version?

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #75 on: April 11, 2014, 01:05:01 PM »
Why that website didn't have an English version?

Not sure, but did you see the pictures. :-)

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #76 on: April 11, 2014, 01:07:17 PM »
Not sure, but did you see the pictures. :-)

Other than a few pictures of zoomed out view of coins, most are just of people gathering to take photos together.


barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #78 on: April 11, 2014, 01:10:35 PM »
Other than a few pictures of zoomed out view of coins, most are just of people gathering to take photos together.

They seem as excited as us about medals and coins. LOL.


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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #80 on: April 11, 2014, 02:49:50 PM »
Let me guess, he didn't managed to get the 2013 expo medal? lol

Is this meant seriously? The note I wrote to Prof. Huang to thank him for the medal he gave me as a gift was posted on the internet.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #81 on: April 11, 2014, 04:56:31 PM »
Not a bad price.  :ohmy:

The trend is going back to their true value - melt value.  ;)

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #82 on: April 11, 2014, 08:05:53 PM »
Is this meant seriously? The note I wrote to Prof. Huang to thank him for the medal he gave me as a gift was posted on the internet.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
www.pandacollector.com

No, I meant it as a joke. That's why I "lol" at the end. What note? Where?


They seem as excited as us about medals and coins. LOL.

I rather the photographer take more close-up photos of coins instead of people. I mean, if I wanted to see photos of people, there's always facebook.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #83 on: April 11, 2014, 08:11:41 PM »
The trend is going back to their true value - melt value.  ;)

Maybe because it is a OMP? If it is PF69 or 70, it would not be sold near melt.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #84 on: April 11, 2014, 08:15:40 PM »
No, I meant it as a joke. That's why I "lol" at the end. What note? Where?


I rather the photographer take more close-up photos of coins instead of people. I mean, if I wanted to see photos of people, there's always facebook.

you are one funny dude.  If ever you come to the states, and specifically South Carolina, let's grab a beer.  Some people take life and medals a bit too serious around here.  I think you are a hoot.

Offline SANDAC

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #85 on: April 12, 2014, 12:08:03 AM »
You may not know that the so-called "2013 expo" was sponsored by Huang's organization, among others. Here are some pictures of that expo: http://www.coin001.com/read.php?tid=38537

Huang wrote about this medal. You can use Goolge Translate to get the gist: http://www.shbiz.com.cn/Item/220205.aspx.  He was advertizing for it.
fwang2450,
I find this paragraph quite interesting:
中秋之前,中国金币总公司在上海、北京、深圳三地试水熊猫金币回购,终于让大家认识到:从此我们的身旁多了一种超级现金,这就是含艺术品、贵金属和现金功能为一体的熊猫金币。若试水效果不错,熊猫金币之回购终将在全国主要商业银行网点铺开。这必将极大地激发普罗大众争做新一代巴依老爷的金币情结。
It sounds like there is a pilot program to buy back gold panda?  To stimulate public interests in gold panda?  Could you or other forum members elaborate on this? 

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #86 on: April 12, 2014, 12:56:55 AM »
fwang2450,
I find this paragraph quite interesting:
中秋之前,中国金币总公司在上海、北京、深圳三地试水熊猫金币回购,终于让大家认识到:从此我们的身旁多了一种超级现金,这就是含艺术品、贵金属和现金功能为一体的熊猫金币。若试水效果不错,熊猫金币之回购终将在全国主要商业银行网点铺开。这必将极大地激发普罗大众争做新一代巴依老爷的金币情结。
It sounds like there is a pilot program to buy back gold panda?  To stimulate public interests in gold panda?  Could you or other forum members elaborate on this? 
This buy-back program has been in existence since last Sept, but with little success, as they buy back only gold pandas issued in 2013, for close to spot price. Most people with the 2013 gold pandas are under water due to the high premium. Here is a post giving a summary: http://gold.hexun.com/2013-12-10/160444335.html

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #87 on: April 12, 2014, 04:13:48 AM »
you are one funny dude.  If ever you come to the states, and specifically South Carolina, let's grab a beer.  Some people take life and medals a bit too serious around here.  I think you are a hoot.

Thanks for your kind words.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #88 on: April 12, 2014, 06:13:01 AM »
This buy-back program has been in existence since last Sept, but with little success, as they buy back only gold pandas issued in 2013, for close to spot price. Most people with the 2013 gold pandas are under water due to the high premium. Here is a post giving a summary: http://gold.hexun.com/2013-12-10/160444335.html

I'm not sure I understand why they would buy back 2013 gold pandas only? And who would do such a crazy thing at spot? Those 2013's are gems.

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #89 on: April 12, 2014, 10:15:57 AM »
I'm not sure I understand why they would buy back 2013 gold pandas only? And who would do such a crazy thing at spot? Those 2013's are gems.

It's the same practice as most coin shops' and pawnshops' dealers; they buy back numismatic coins from collectors at melt (or even a few percent below melt) then they sell at profit (10, 20 and even 40 times of melt for rare coins). They will strictly only want to buy in low at melt and as a buyer, they won't talk or accept the numismatic value. Once I asked them if they were selling those numismatic coins in the display windows near melt since they buy back at/below melt. They said there is a "collector value" on top of melt because those are numismatic. I asked them back why they don't recognize numismatic value when I tried to sell them my coin. They kept quiet.

Buy in at melt, then sell at 20 times of melt. Very "clever" strategy but collectors like me aren't stupid.

No way am I selling numismatic coins to those coin shops at those ridiculously low prices. I would sell only bullion coins that have no collector's value to them, and I specially select those bullion coins that have dings, toning, milk spots as they don't recognize condition of the coins too, they only go by weight.

However a few of the nicer coin shops' dealers (very rare in this world now) do take numismatic coins and recognizing numismatic value too. Those nice dealers will also pay a premium on top of melt. It would be like 65% or 70% of what you paid initially for the coin. When you show them receipts of your past purchase, they will also try to increase their buy-back price. It's an integrity thing. Knowing making profits is important to cover costs and rent, but integrity is also important as well.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #90 on: April 12, 2014, 09:58:48 PM »
Hey Contra, what are your thoughts on this medal? Just curious.  Thanks.  N20


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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #91 on: April 13, 2014, 12:48:02 AM »
It's the same practice as most coin shops' and pawnshops' dealers; they buy back numismatic coins from collectors at melt (or even a few percent below melt) then they sell at profit (10, 20 and even 40 times of melt for rare coins).

Most coin shops are spoiled by people bringing in rare coins and selling them for melt that they don't need to buy coins from knowledgeable collectors at any premium unless they know the coins very well (coins shops buy everything so they have to be careful not to pay a premium for something that maybe a fake simply because they don't specialize in coins from that country or time period).  

By the same token knowledgeable collectors should understand the value of their collectibles and know the best venue to sell them for 70-80% of market value in a flat market and 90-100% of market value in a rising market.  If you really want a fair price for your coins sell them on ebay or go to coin show and find someone that specialize in the types of coins you are selling and they will pay a fair price for the coins.    

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #92 on: April 13, 2014, 05:52:23 AM »
Hey Contra, what are your thoughts on this medal? Just curious.  Thanks.  N20

Same opinion as the Singapore 2014 coin fair medal:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10089.0
(my post at the bottom of page 1)


Most coin shops are spoiled by people bringing in rare coins and selling them for melt that they don't need to buy coins from knowledgeable collectors at any premium unless they know the coins very well (coins shops buy everything so they have to be careful not to pay a premium for something that maybe a fake simply because they don't specialize in coins from that country or time period). 

By the same token knowledgeable collectors should understand the value of their collectibles and know the best venue to sell them for 70-80% of market value in a flat market and 90-100% of market value in a rising market.  If you really want a fair price for your coins sell them on ebay or go to coin show and find someone that specialize in the types of coins you are selling and they will pay a fair price for the coins.   

What you said is so true.

Pawnshops are the worst places to sell; they completely ignored numismatic value when they're buying-in, they only recognize numismatic value when they're selling.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #93 on: April 19, 2014, 12:20:38 AM »
Same opinion as the Singapore 2014 coin fair medal:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=10089.0
(my post at the bottom of page 1)


What you said is so true.

Pawnshops are the worst places to sell; they completely ignored numismatic value when they're buying-in, they only recognize numismatic value when they're selling.

Contra/anyone, what does this mean (from the link above): "A word to the wise --- stick to investment grade Chinese coins/medals; those manufactured by the China mints."  What is an investment grade? Thanks.

Offline fwang2450

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #94 on: April 19, 2014, 02:01:27 AM »
Hey Contra, what are your thoughts on this medal? Just curious.  Thanks.  N20


This is a medal from Shenyang Mint, by the same artist who had designed and engraved the Putuo medals. The 45 mm Putuo bronze medal rose from RMB160 half a year ago to about RMB400 now. Nice return for anyone with investment in mind.

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #95 on: April 19, 2014, 07:45:23 AM »
This is a medal from Shenyang Mint, by the same artist who had designed and engraved the Putuo medals. The 45 mm Putuo bronze medal rose from RMB160 half a year ago to about RMB400 now. Nice return for anyone with investment in mind.

Thanks Contra.  I can't wait to see the Wutai medal in all it's fine detail. :-)

Offline Contrapunctus

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #96 on: April 20, 2014, 06:23:10 AM »
Contra/anyone, what does this mean (from the link above): "A word to the wise --- stick to investment grade Chinese coins/medals; those manufactured by the China mints."  What is an investment grade? Thanks.

My opinion for what pandaguy meant = only buy official mints' coins/medals and graded in PCGS/NGC slabs.

My opinion for "investment grade" is MS/PR60+. Unless it is an extremely rare coin that is valuable in any grade.

Offline Pandaguy

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #97 on: April 20, 2014, 09:49:32 AM »
My opinion for what pandaguy meant = only buy official mints' coins/medals and graded in PCGS/NGC slabs.

My opinion for "investment grade" is MS/PR60+. Unless it is an extremely rare coin that is valuable in any grade.

My opinion is to only buy official mint coins or medals either raw or graded by PCGS/NGC. Many prefer raw, which is fine. There are many fantastic-looking non-mint issue medals that some people like to collect for their beauty. However, for various reasons, some collectors may shy away from non-mint issued medals. However, if I like it, I buy it. It is entirely a personal preference.

Offline jwa1inv

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #98 on: July 28, 2014, 04:38:42 PM »
My definition of investment grade is 68 or better for extremely rare, below 1000
mintage and 69 or better for merely rare, below 10,000. Upper grades have most
volatility, thus most risk, both upside and downside.
I have had some gorgeous 66 coins, but price performance wise I like high grade.

One of our CCF members regularly does well purchasing from Pawn shops.
He sold some valuable/profitable beauties to me years ago and still posts amazing finds.
There is money to be made for many parties concerned depending on how greedy/generous
each middleman is. Sellers with turnover needs can seem generous.
When some pawnshops buy low and just go for reasonable margin they leave some on
the table for the buyer. They ignore their numismatic homework probably for convenience.

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Offline mmissinglink

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #100 on: April 17, 2015, 10:46:29 PM »
I don't know about the entire Chinese medal market, but for sure certain Chinese medals are clearly selling well these days I think....A) there has been recent strong interest in the 2011 Xi-Shi Holding a Pearl medal  and B) interest in the 2014 World Heritage series seems to be picking up. I'm sure other medals are also seeing good movement in the market as well.

Which medals do you think are getting attention in the market now?


Offline pandamonium

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #101 on: April 18, 2015, 08:19:10 AM »
My knowledge is limited but the new issue medals are seeing demand today.   In time the early year issue will see more demand and price.   The long awaited MCC depleted inventory and increased demand is coming.  Again, the Yuan and AIIB banks have captivated the World countries.   The US debt/derviatives/disfunctional government will in time send the USD the other direction, down the main drain.   Obvious to all.   The world will soon flood to the Yuan & bullion as there is no other choice for survival.  The world will also flood to collectible Chinese money.   The potential for gains is very high and then some.   The evidence was obvious 5 yrs ago and have many on board collecting MCC and other Chinese money........Rare, low mintage medals will do very, very well.......   

Offline cloudtoground

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #102 on: June 14, 2015, 06:59:17 PM »
modern Chinese medals - Is this market in collapse?

I collect modern Chinese medals (along with modern Chinese coins and stamps).  On May 11th, a 1985 silver (1 oz) 94th ANA medal sold on Ebay for $2193.99 (NGC PF68UC).  This is the silver medal with "The Great Wall" shown in mirror image on the medal.  Planned mintage was 500 and actual mintage is unknown, but estimated to be around 160.  Different varieties?  Who knows?  I do not think anyone has studied enough examples of this medal to know.  Still, a mintage of 160 +/- should make this quite collectible.  NGC has graded 15 with 1-67, 7-68 & 7-69.

During the last year or so, I have seen one of these medals sell on Ebay for $500 (Buy It Now) (raw) and at $6900 (PF69UC).  I purchased a raw one from Majestic Rarities at the Fun Show for $5000 (and had it graded at NGC PF69UC).  I have seen Panda America list one (raw) on Ebay for various prices (and I do not know if it ever sold).

My question.  Whether we look at the 1985 ANA medal or any other modern Chinese medal, are the prices of these medals dropping lower and lower, and is this market still collasping?  Generally, I would say this is true.  There are exceptions such as the 1987 5 oz gold God of Longevity.  The price of this medal is not collasping.  Why?  None are for sale.  In other cases, the prices have dropped because the seller is unwilling to do so to complete a sale.  So, the item remains listed at a Buy It Now price which is too high for the present marketplace.

I welcome you comments and discussion.

Mark Bonke  




I am so glad so glad I didn't put much money into the Chinese silver and gold coin market.  After some successes back in 2009 with some Chinese coins I bought a few more in 2012.  I lost some but I was looking at some of the prices and wow, what a collapse.  Really silver and gold coins across the board.  On top of that you have to worry about the black and white spots that seem to plague Chinese coins or world coins in general.  I buy a couple coins a year now.  I just bought my first coin of this year.  But since the prices have collapse I might buy a few more, but I still won't buy more than a few a year.  I think I will stick to banknotes since they don't have the hype nor the metal fluctuations nor the condition problems that coins do.

Offline Birdman

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #103 on: June 14, 2015, 08:02:00 PM »

I am so glad so glad I didn't put much money into the Chinese silver and gold coin market.  After some successes back in 2009 with some Chinese coins I bought a few more in 2012.  I lost some but I was looking at some of the prices and wow, what a collapse.  Really silver and gold coins across the board.  On top of that you have to worry about the black and white spots that seem to plague Chinese coins or world coins in general.  I buy a couple coins a year now.  I just bought my first coin of this year.  But since the prices have collapse I might buy a few more, but I still won't buy more than a few a year.  I think I will stick to banknotes since they don't have the hype nor the metal fluctuations nor the condition problems that coins do.

Each person has his favorite, but for me, holding solid gold in my hAnd is infinitely more pleasurable than a piece of paper :)

Birdman

barsenault

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #104 on: June 14, 2015, 08:25:33 PM »
amen to that birdman.  I'd take this with white spots all day any day, every day over paper with ink.  BUT, to your point, to each his own.




Offline cloudtoground

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #105 on: June 14, 2015, 08:44:56 PM »
Each person has his favorite, but for me, holding solid gold in my hAnd is infinitely more pleasurable than a piece of paper :)

Birdman

the designs on banknote are really quite nice.  I actually like Stocks much better and that's where the majority of the money is at.  2000-2009 was the market for precious metals and coins, but 2009-2019 is the market for stocks.  Even with a pull back everynow and then.  To each their own.  Good luck.

Offline davidt3251

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #106 on: June 15, 2015, 12:36:57 AM »

I am so glad so glad I didn't put much money into the Chinese silver and gold coin market.  After some successes back in 2009 with some Chinese coins I bought a few more in 2012.  I lost some but I was looking at some of the prices and wow, what a collapse.  Really silver and gold coins across the board.  On top of that you have to worry about the black and white spots that seem to plague Chinese coins or world coins in general.  I buy a couple coins a year now.  I just bought my first coin of this year.  But since the prices have collapse I might buy a few more, but I still won't buy more than a few a year.  I think I will stick to banknotes since they don't have the hype nor the metal fluctuations nor the condition problems that coins do.

I wish I had invested more. Many of my recent purchases of MCC were done when the Canadian dollar bought $1.05-$1.1 US. Now its 80-85 cents. I guess thats why my MCC portfolio is at an all time high in value. I didn't plan it exactly like that but I wanted to spend Canadian dollars when they were strong.

Stock market holdings are way too easy for the governments to tax and seize for my peace of mind. For example, the US told all the countries in the world that unless all Americans resident in their country file tax returns, the US will withhold cash flows to that country. (FATCA).

Its not so easy to do that with MCC.

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #107 on: June 15, 2015, 01:10:00 AM »
Each person has his favorite, but for me, holding solid gold in my hAnd is infinitely more pleasurable than a piece of paper :)

Birdman

China coin price gap between dealers are big even selling or buying at same period of time. The price can up few hundred % or not even 1%.

It depends on the timing you buy and who u buy from.

I did pay a lot of tuition fee at initial stage and slowly I become better. This my experience as collector then turn to freelance seller.

The situation make complicated as when the online platform for MCC started. It is another round of cycle now.

It is kind of gamble table for certain MCC/medal.

Offline mmissinglink

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #108 on: October 15, 2015, 01:43:02 PM »
I have to assume that the Modern Chinese Medal market is not so different than the coin market in the respect that both markets have cycles of higher and lower sentiment driving prices in general higher and lower. And of course, just like within the coin market, within the medals market you will have exceptions to the rule; medals that perform strongly while most of the others don't and visa-versa.

My perspective is this: if we are in a depressed market where prices are low, then it's actually the best time to buy.



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Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #109 on: October 15, 2015, 05:28:26 PM »
I have to assume that the Modern Chinese Medal market is not so different than the coin market in the respect that both markets have cycles of higher and lower sentiment driving prices in general higher and lower. And of course, just like within the coin market, within the medals market you will have exceptions to the rule; medals that perform strongly while most of the others don't and visa-versa.

My perspective is this: if we are in a depressed market where prices are low, then it's actually the best time to buy.



Hello mmissinglink, Nice to hear from you here! Please stay engaged.

Your sentiments are correct. It is a cyclical/seasonal market. However, bargains pop up once in a while and should be snapped up then. Down markets put pressure on sellers to price their items more tightly/affordably.

I don't know if the silver bullion price has bottomed out but some mints are beginning to ration their output due to increased demand. It is possible that bullion prices are creeping back up!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline mmissinglink

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Re: MODERN CHINESE MEDALS - Is this market in collapse?
« Reply #110 on: November 03, 2015, 03:14:37 PM »
I will always have a great fondness for Chinese medals...nothing will change that.

I constantly look for good deals...thank goodness there is more than one place that I can look. That said though, there's not many of the medals I am seeking offered for sale anywhere I look. So people are holding tightly onto certain of their Chinese medals to a significant extent it seems.

If Chinese medals are in a state of depressed value, then it is a good time to buy (but if no one is selling the one's you want...tough luck) and also it is more likely than not that the values will go up from here. I am optimistic of the Chinese medals market.



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