Author Topic: Is Richard Russell Right?  (Read 12090 times)

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Offline pandamania

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Is Richard Russell Right?
« on: November 17, 2011, 11:45:11 AM »
I consider myself an investor/collector of Chinese Coins but my background is in finance/investing. Over the last 10 years I have paid very close attention to certain authors with regard to metal prices and drawn investment conclusions based to a large degree upon their technical and fundamental knowledge. While there are many outstanding individuals who have been on target with regard to this metals market there are some whose every article I consider a must read.
Yesterday I posted an article by Alf Field who is one of those gifted people and today I`d like to post the latest words of Richard Russell, an investment icon for the past 50 years (For those who may not have read it - his writings can also be found on the 321gold website).

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell111711.html

Others that I feel have been "spot on" include Bill Buckler of The Privateer Newsletter out of Australia and of course the master Jim Rogers.

My reading list includes many others but I am certainly happy to have listened to the advise of these individuals.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2012, 09:19:50 AM »
The best author I have read online was Bob Chapman of International Forecaster.  Sadly Bob recently passed.  God Bless him.  Richard Russell is mostly correct.  The facts are obvious.  The printing of world currencies will lead to a collapse of the US dollar or petro dollar, world wide.  Precious metals are manipulated so other countries can increase their metal reserves and the US dollar can stay above water another day.  The system of things will fall apart.  When it does all heck world wide will break lose.  The production and distribution of food will fail.  Peak oil has been reached so there is zero chance the US economy will bounce back as we need cheap oil to develope a strong economy.  When the US dollar collapses then it will take about 4 yrs to gain confidence in another currency.  Food shortages, riots, etc worldwide is expected.  I read these articles almost 7 yrs ago and now it is all coming true.  Our world is based on cheap oil and it is gone.  I am not negative.  Time to prepare.  The Bible calls this the days of Great Sorrow.  Anyone that can read can figure out what will happen...................

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2012, 09:43:42 AM »
I always wondered how you got your name, sounds like future pandamonium!

Offline exchange

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2012, 10:16:08 AM »
Back in December of 2011, I wrote something on silver bullion. So far I am glad I did. If I am going to overpay for silver it better be a Chinese modern coin and not bullion.

"My two cents on silver..... maybe this should be in its own thread but seeing what is going on with the 2012 silver dragon, this seems to apply.

Makes you wonder really how scarce silver is. That is one thing I always did not understand. Many silver people insisting the supply of silver is low and that we will run out of silver, etc...

My point was always if silver is really scarce why would so many government and private mints make silver coins and medals in the hundreds of millions. The US alone this year will mint 45 Million American silver eagles, thats for just one country, one serie and in one year. Mints around the world are minting silver coins at record pace. If it was indeed rare, none of this would be happening.

A look at some of the estimated silver coins been minted this year alone.
Estimated sales for 2011 1 ounce coins:

2011 American Silver Eagles: 45 Million ounces
2011 Canadian Silver Maple Leaf: 35 Million ounces
2011 China silver pandas: 6 Million ounces.

Thats why I have been slowly selling most of my silver bullion from $45 and downwards, I said "Most" you just never know. Bought most of it between $10 and $15. Been selling and swapping for particular Chinese silver coins as shown from my "post your newest modern chinese coins" over the last few months. The way I see it, if silver goes to $100, and thats a big "IF", then I beleive my silver chinese coins will perform much better. If silver goes back to $10, I don't think my chinese coins will go down that much precentagely."



http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3605.msg26609#msg26609

exchange
« Last Edit: November 30, 2012, 06:49:34 PM by snowball »

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2012, 10:26:41 AM »
I grew up in the sticks and our only entertainment at the time was Portland Wrestling.  TV was very different then.  Pretty soon you saw WWF or WWE develope and "pandamonium in the wrestling ring" was a common term.  So there you go.  All of us on this forum are very fortunate to receive the information we get.  Buy food supplies, precious metals will go to the moon.  We are ahead of the herd.  Better to be in a position to protect what you have then out beating the streets looking for resources when the system collapses.  It is mind boggling how many people know a collapse is coming but they refuse to prepare.  We forum members are very fortunate.  My prediction for silver is still $1,000 oz or about $100 for each junk silver dime.  Silver will become money and gold will buy homes, etc.  Junk silver is recognized as currency so the premium on it is going up higher now then regular bullion.  Silver should have a larger upside then gold..............

Offline shibaji

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2012, 04:06:46 AM »
$1000/oz silver is too much man! :-)

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2012, 09:14:30 AM »
My estimate of $1,000 is lower than many others.  Richard Russell is basically saying a collapse is coming too.  The key word is derivatives.  LTCM, Long Term Capitol Management went bankrupt from derivatives and PBS has a very good documentary on that.  President Clinton repealed Glass-Steagel and allowed NAFTA, which sent our manufacturing overseas.  The US does not manufacture so it can only create debt.  President Bush (league) unleashed the derivative monster which will lead to world wide collapse.  President Obama came into office and found out the US cannot pay interest on debt, so not much damage he could do as it was already Mission Accomplished.  How corrupt are we?  I do not know how to put links on CCF so will send email to shibaji and maybe he can link it here.........

Offline ghostrider80811

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2012, 06:15:10 PM »
Interesting perspectives from all sides and I can agree on about 80% of the things said here but I fear digital money will be the new form of money as its easier to tax once everything moves digitally (think control) BUT Gold and Silver will be the savior of the underground economy.  When will this happen?  Who knows!?  Plan accordingly...

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2012, 01:08:24 PM »
catalyst?   Shots fired Gulf of Hormuz.  Not good news as Iran has voted to shut the strait(narrow passage) down..............

Offline badon

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2012, 11:05:11 PM »
I sincerely hope nothing interesting happens. No news is good news.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2012, 11:18:19 PM »
The report is the boat fired upon was not from Iran.  Maybe it was tourists on a 3 hour tour.  Probably a test of our defense................

Dragons_Are_Silly

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2012, 12:28:41 AM »
Maybe it was tourists on a 3 hour tour. 

Hope it wuznt  Gilligan     he funy

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2012, 10:16:31 AM »
Here`s the latest interesting view from Richard Russsell:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell090612.html

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2012, 05:00:36 PM »
Richard Russell makes alot of sense.  $10,000 oz gold.  How much will silver be?  Precious metals have no where to go but up in the long term.   Maybe in the short term we could have another price destruction like last year?   Maybe it is just a manipulated and temporary drop in price?............ ..
http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update-6686

Offline badon

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2012, 04:30:23 PM »
That is interesting. He is quite likely to be correct. It seems almost inevitable that what he suggests will be implemented at some point in the near or far future.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #15 on: October 31, 2012, 04:19:57 PM »
Richard Russell makes alot of sense.  $10,000 oz gold.  How much will silver be?  Precious metals have no where to go but up in the long term.   Maybe in the short term we could have another price destruction like last year?   Maybe it is just a manipulated and temporary drop in price?............ ..
http://www.silverseek.com/article/silver-market-update-6686
 

Pandamonium,

I believe that this recent relatively mild correction was just a temporary drop in price.

I have a lot of respect for Clive Maund and agree with his assessment much of the time. With all due respect to Clive I think it is very likely that the correction has run its course and that much higher metals prices lie ahead. Hopefully this will give forum members positive things to discuss in the coming months (years).

It also appears that the stock market is very vulnerable, except for metals stocks which could benefit greatly providing that the metals market starts to take off from this area. Should the market go south in a meaningful way all that money will have to go somewhere, perhaps into metals, metal stocks and coins. Is there a more logical choice at this time?

Regards,

Pandamania

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #16 on: October 31, 2012, 05:12:04 PM »
I agree.  The stock market, w/ the exception of mining related stocks, is headed for a dumpster dive.   I encourage all my friends to buy bullion and MCC.  Most have and are happy.  One said he will buy Ford stock.  Sucker born every minute.  The majority of people will be shocked at how high precious metals will climb.  There is an ocean of paper money and growing daily.  The only safety net is precious metals.  That flood of cash is headed into physical gold/silver and out of paper gold/silver.  Most predictions are for the price increase to start after the election.  Expect panic for those in the stock market and not metals.  No need for us to panic, maybe a toast w/ a large margarita..............

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #17 on: October 31, 2012, 05:45:53 PM »
Providing we`re right are you buying or is it my turn?

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #18 on: October 31, 2012, 09:52:36 PM »
Eric Sprott buys silver and silver mining stocks. I like Eric Sprott.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2013, 04:18:23 PM »
According to Richard Russell`s criteria it looks like we have a breakout in metals:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell081413.html

This has been a very convincing move in gold stocks, which appear to be leading the metals market higher.

The stock market may well have topped and there is a strong inverse relationship between gold stocks and common stocks. It looks positive for continued strength in metals. Quality MCC`s are becoming harder to find by the day.

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2013, 06:58:00 PM »
Current sentiment for precious metals is 100% bullish. Thats a red flag to traders.

Silver is over 25% up from its lows a few weeks ago.

Silver is also very overbought here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

The obvious buy sign was the 2nd double bottom in silver this summer.

The risk reward isnt great here for the shortterm, medium term is ok, sure silver may power higher for weeks, or it could correct down again.

Offline NBM

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2013, 09:28:42 PM »
A little dated but should give an idea of where we are.

http://www.majormarketmovements.blogspot.com/2013/08/mmm-weekend-update-8-11-13.html

...and this from Ilya Repin from June 22.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2013, 09:54:14 PM »
We may be in that time frame where there is little gold/silver to supply the huge demand.   IF so then Comex will default.  The paper gold/silver ratio of 100 to 1 oz of physical gold/silver will unwind.   China has huge upcoming problems like their housing bubble popping which amounts to 20% or 1/3 of their entire economy as seen on 60 min.   However, most all articles worldwide agree that the weak US dollar has unsustainable debt and $200 trillion in derivatives.  So the Yuan and other currencies look much more attractive.  He who has the gold makes the rules.  The next 6 months are going to be "very interesting" (stated on TV show Laugh In).   Today, prices are cheap so a good time to buy.  If/when the Yuan moves up, what will that do to values of MCC?  It doesn't take a brain sturgeon to figure that out...........  :)   


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/8/15_We_Are_Very_Late_In_The_End_Game_-_Its_Close_To_Game_Over.html

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2013, 04:05:39 PM »
Registered gold has dropped 60% but silver in Comez warehouses has only dropped 12%.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1376413284.php

-central banks only buying gold?
-asans buying gold in quantity over silver?

Regardless, it appears that there are still sufficient silver stocks.

Offline NBM

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2013, 06:11:45 PM »
Registered gold has dropped 60% but silver in Comez warehouses has only dropped 12%.
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1376413284.php

-central banks only buying gold?
-asans buying gold in quantity over silver?

Regardless, it appears that there are still sufficient silver stocks.


Could they be using silver to back their gold deficits?

Offline pandamonium

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Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2013, 10:59:33 PM »
If I were a betting man I would say we're looking at a correction in silver.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2013, 11:42:40 PM »
Yes, I think that's about to happen.  And I am a betting man.  ;)

Short term?
Gold Oversold Bounce or New Bull Market?
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-26/gold-oversold-bounce-or-new-bull-market

Long term?
The future demands they keep printing paper.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2013, 01:50:32 PM »
Evidence points to : Richard Russell was not right.
Not when the article was written in Nov 2011 with gold at $1781 and he was predicting up.

I like RR, he has a nice folksy writing style. Likeable. July 25 2013 he was cautiously liking gold again. Good call.

But it just points out, when the "gurus" are wildly bullish, sell. When even the leading "gurus" have thrown in the towel, buy.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2013, 02:24:09 PM by Hippanda »
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #29 on: August 27, 2013, 07:40:08 PM »
Manfred Zimmel called this entire gold correction the best. He is consistently ranked one of the top market timers at Timers Digest.

He correctly called the gold bear when most were bullish:

    Already 6 months ago the premium subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting were warned of gold. Also, the December 4, 2012 free Amanita newsletter (written in late November with gold near $1,750) already red-flagged gold, to quote: "The gold bugs don't like to hear that but without doubt the precious metals are an ugly investment *today*..." I made this statement with - or in spite of? - my background of being perhaps the only forecaster who called the beginning of the gold market. In 2000 a multi-year bull market was projected to begin either in early April or May 2001 - as a matter of fact, it started on April 2, 2001.
    In December 2012 this super-bearish gold call was corroborated in several interviews with European print media (link).
    On January 29, 2013 with gold trading just short of $1,700 I wrote in the protected premium area (2-5 updates a month on average): "While my assessment for the precious metals sector has deteriorated a lot the past months, my outlook now suggests the ultimate nightmare. [...] the 'trapdoor to hell' is open & $500-$1,000 is not just realistic but likely. [...] Maybe I am now one of the biggest gold bears on the planet, which is a huge caesura." This unprecedented warning was issued just in time, as the plunge started in February...

http://www.amanita.at/Startseitewillkommen/detail.php?id=142


Offline comeaux

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2013, 08:31:20 PM »
But it just points out, when the "gurus" are wildly bullish, sell. When even the leading "gurus" have thrown in the towel, buy.

Good advice !!! … I try to steer away from “gurus” but I do use multiple resources for investment strategy.

Nobody really knows what PM’s will do going forward but considering the recent run in silver/gold … I agree there is another correction coming so I decided to sell the 1,000 shares I purchased 60 days ago as I have a feeling there could be a lot of volatility in the next year.

I really didn’t make much money on the trade but $3,555 or 19% in 60 days is not a bad deal plus I think it may trade down below $20 again. 


Post back in June:
Quote from: comeaux
On a side note I took a break today from bullion and MCC … decided to pick up 1,000 shares of SLV at $19 which is an ETF that trades close to silver spot.


Offline GDG's

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2013, 08:40:06 PM »
>>>This unprecedented warning was issued just in time, as the plunge started in February..<<

NOBODY can call short term pm prices with reliability. After over a decade of strong growth it surprises NO ONE that pm's have pulled back. This doesn't mean most of us will be selling our numismatic coins. With the world's printing presses smoking and an unhinged US foreign policy I'm happy to buy pm's right now.

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2013, 09:16:15 PM »
Manfred Zimmel has a verifiable track record. So while I enjoyt the entertainment value of gurus like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, etc, its better to invest following a track record.

Here is his track record:
http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzudenangebotenenDienstleistungen/MittelfristigeTimerDigest-Signale/

Offline GDG's

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2013, 09:27:48 PM »
Manfred Zimmel has a verifiable track record. So while I enjoyt the entertainment value of gurus like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, etc, its better to invest following a track record.

Here is his track record:
http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzudenangebotenenDienstleistungen/MittelfristigeTimerDigest-Signale/

"Enjoy the entertainment value of gurus like Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, etc"

LOL, I won't even touch that statement as it is too funny.

This Manfred Zimmel?
http://www.uacastrology.com/cgi-bin/speakers.cgi?STAFF=1157

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2013, 09:43:31 PM »
Yes. I dont care so much for some of the astrology, but the trades have worked. I have been short the S&P, using options, all this month, from 1700, based on his trade recommendation. Very profitable.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2013, 10:01:31 PM »
Good advices!!! Life is too short for short-term market timing, except when "this time it's different." It's better to enjoy the entertainment by gurus.

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2013, 10:16:21 PM »
Good advice !!! … I try to steer away from “gurus” but I do use multiple resources for investment strategy.

Nobody really knows what PM’s will do going forward but considering the recent run in silver/gold … I agree there is another correction coming so I decided to sell the 1,000 shares I purchased 60 days ago as I have a feeling there could be a lot of volatility in the next year.

I really didn’t make much money on the trade but $3,555 or 19% in 60 days is not a bad deal plus I think it may trade down below $20 again. 


Post back in June:

Hey nice little trade there Comeaux -
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #37 on: August 30, 2013, 04:10:02 PM »
After making a nice run following Richard Russell`s latest, as suggested by some knowledgeable members of the Forum we appear to be entering a corrective phase. Currently, gold and silver prices are quite a bit higher than when he wrote his August 14 update.

There is a worrisome aspect to this move. Metal stocks began the move strongly leading metals to the upside in a near perfect inverse relationship to the stock market. However, this changed abruptly and dramatically and is no longer the case, a potentially troubling sign.

The stock market looks vulnerable and this is the time of the year that can produce massive declines. If the stock market does go down in a meaningful way as in 2008 will precious metal stocks again follow in sympathy? Would gold/silver prices also follow this time around? Would MCC prices be negatively affected?

Offline Hippanda

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2013, 04:23:53 PM »
At times, having a little insurance allows for more restful sleep.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandacoins

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2013, 03:17:30 AM »
In a word... yes.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2013, 11:47:25 AM »
D E M A N D    China's demand for gold is hard to believe at times but it is just beginning........


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1377892492.php

Offline pandacoins

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Re: Is Richard Russell Right?
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2013, 06:24:37 PM »
Expect them to come out someday and say: "We have 10,000 tons of gold now." That might be a high number at present (or maybe not), but it's guaranteed they right now have a minimum 5,000 tons as I write this, even though their official statement is currently only 1,000

They are also importing a huge amount of silver as well. Partially due to their desire to corner the solar panel market.


D E M A N D    China's demand for gold is hard to believe at times but it is just beginning........


http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1377892492.php