Topic: Is Alf Field Right?

[pandamonium]

Pandamania, metals have bottomed.  What will happen next and what is Alfs time frame?.........Also concerning the Cyprus problem.  The Russians were notified before the collapse and they go their cash out.......

[pandamania]

Pandamonium,

Alf`s target in his January 13, 2012 projection for the magnitude of the next wave (wave 3 of 3) was roughly $4500. As he said in a January 3, 2013 update once the bottom of this corrective wave is confirmed and gold gets above $1800 he will be refining his forecast (it looks like we`ve hit bottom to me too although we could still test that). Alf doesn`t project a time frame for the next up move but according to Elliott theory wave 3 of 3 is normally the longest and strongest of a bull market. Based on the length of the corrective wave I would guess that 3 of 3 would last at least 2-3 years, which given the remaining waves following that we still have a long time frame in the metals bull market.

Regards,

Pandamania

[pandamania]

This is Alf Field`s first update in over a year and his take on recent market activity:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field041413.html

[NBM]

I think Alf needs a new set of tea leaves...or maybe chicken bones.

Why do you say this?
How do you see it playing out?

[pandamania]

The chances are very good that we have finally witnessed the bottom of this metal market correction and the top of the stock market up move from 2009.

As long as the metal socks continue to outperform gold/silver and hold their recent lows on the XAU/HUI the next move up could be significant. It`s quite encouraging from a contrary viewpoint that we have seen sentiment and xau/spx ratios at historic lows while the price of gold has only corrected from $1900 to $1350.

The NYSE has recently recorded all time margin debt, usually an indicator of a market top and bullish sentiment has been extreme.

Unless we have more highly unusual surprises this bodes very well for the MCC market.

Opinions?

[pandamonium]

I agree.  As much cash China is throwing around the world to buy assets, (art, real estate, businesses, mines, farms, etc.) it would take just a little of their cash mountain to remove supply and boost price of MCC.........