Author Topic: Is Alf Field Right?  (Read 10276 times)

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Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2013, 08:26:04 AM »
Here`s the latest from Alf Field:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field010313.html

We have achieved another meaningful Elliott point in the metals market correction and this would suggest that the time is right for the next major rally. However, over the recent months of the decline it seems as though an "invisible hand" of selling appears whenever the metals prices look to be poised for an up move (as the stock market looks to be propped up when a decline begins). The selling in the paper metals market does not seem to be consistent with the physical demand at hand.

Are we experiencing a Gettysburg moment where a decisive battle rages between the "invisible hand" and the "physical market" for the domination of gold and silver prices (and perhaps the onset of free market forces)?

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #16 on: January 04, 2013, 09:21:14 AM »
For any Forum members who are not familiar with Gettysburg this is where a great battle was waged in the American Civil War. It was the decisive victory of the North and allowed its army to dominate the war from that point forward.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2013, 10:00:54 AM »
As long as gold/silver is manipulated, we will not see fair market value.  When supply is gone then we will go to a parabolic spike in metal prices or fair market value.  The Govt does not want this to happen as it will signal the decline or end of the US dollar so alot is at stake.  Bullion has huge world wide demand and supply is very low.   The link below is a short article about demand from Tom Cloud of the National Numismatic Associates.  He emailed me back and they only sell bullion. The big boys are buying but the general public is still clueless.  When the public catches on it will be too late as supply will be gone.  This forum and its members/readers are in a good position...........

.
http://dollarcollapse.com/precious-metals/tom-cloud-the-pieces-are-in-place-for-a-gold-rally/

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #18 on: January 04, 2013, 10:32:03 AM »
Interesting update on current demand pandamonium. The battle appears to be underway.

Offline NBM

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #19 on: January 04, 2013, 11:42:00 AM »
Like a coiled spring, when she rips you don't want to be in the way.
Check the divergence between Ag and the national debt.



Au for comparison.


Offline Straitssettlementshop

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #20 on: January 04, 2013, 01:30:25 PM »
The Federal Reserve is going to end QE earlier than expected resulting to gold price fell as much as USD48 an ounce to USD1626 today.

Always remember that the market are tend to go the other opposite direction from the masses.

Whatever chart you use are useless hence it can't give direction for future. Chart could only tell you what have already happened.

Offline GDG's

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #21 on: January 04, 2013, 01:37:11 PM »
The Federal Reserve is going to end QE earlier than expected resulting to gold price fell as much as USD48 an ounce to USD1626 today.

Always remember that the market are tend to go the other opposite direction from the masses.

Whatever chart you use are useless hence it can't give direction for future. Chart could only tell you what have already happened.


 Did you read yesterdays Wall Street Journal Money section? Asian investors still buying PHYSICAL gold and storing in non Banking institutions like the one at Singapore airport. It was an interesting, researched article not a snippet.

Offline cabaretvolt

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #22 on: January 04, 2013, 02:04:18 PM »
metals always get whacked pre job numbers release

« Last Edit: January 04, 2013, 02:13:13 PM by cabaretvolt »
"Okay, You people sit tight, hold the fort and keep the home fires burning. And if we're not back by dawn... call the president" - Burton

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #23 on: January 04, 2013, 04:12:04 PM »
The Federal Reserve is going to end QE earlier than expected resulting to gold price fell as much as USD48 an ounce to USD1626 today.

Always remember that the market are tend to go the other opposite direction from the masses.

Whatever chart you use are useless hence it can't give direction for future. Chart could only tell you what have already happened.


Straitssettlementshop,

What is the Fed really telling us about a possible end to QE? Would this be a recognition and admission of the futility of trying to control the markets with Fed "tools" (or are they perhaps saying we are out of ammunition)? If either is the case then would this be an indication that a free market environment lies ahead?

Regards,

Pandamania

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #24 on: January 04, 2013, 09:59:51 PM »

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2013, 04:26:04 PM »
OK so what is going on in the metals market? Gold/silver stocks are getting crushed while metal prices continue to hold above their correction lows. Coin prices have turned up and the demand for physical metal is soaring.

I learned a long time ago that it doesn`t pay to argue with the market since it usually wins and can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. However there are so many discrepancies occurring one has to wonder what forces are in play.

As indicated gold/silver stocks, whether high quality or small cap, have been taken to extremes never seen in this bull market and perhaps much longer. It would be relatively easy for players with very deep pockets to temporarily control the gold/silver stock market by controlling the short positions in industry leaders Newmont and Barrick, while the rest would follow this lead. Is this what`s happening?

Gold/silver stock measures are at levels that would be concluding lows in major bear markets. For example, the XAU stocks ended last month with readings that have very little room for additional decline. Long term monthly MACD closed February at -10.54 (compared to the prior bull market low of -7.58 at the end of the crash of 2008/9 on April 1, 2009). The Williams Index monthly (an oscillating momentum measure on a scale of 0 (highest) to -100 (lowest)) stands at -99.21 (the prior bull market low was during that dramatic 2008 sell off at an extremely oversold reading of -87.97
on 10/1/08). Other measures are at similar extremes.

Gold peaked at a bit over $1900 in 2011 and quickly fell to a low of around $1560 in September, 2011.There have been several attempts for gold to follow the gold stocks lower but it has continued to hold above its May 2012 low of about $1530. Likewise silver quickly fell from its 2011 highs to around $26 in September, 2011 but that low has been tested twice again and held each time.

Overall coin prices appear to be turning up as can be seen from the 3 year PCGS charts:

http://www.pcgs.com/prices/Graph.aspx?range=3%20years&filename=index

Despite the extreme pessimism in the gold/silver markets and stock markets MCC`s and American Eagle graded coins have generally held up well since the lows (particularly older coins). As we have all read on the Forum and elsewhere the numerous reports on the increasing demand in the physical metals market.

If one were to hazard a guess, it appears quite possible that there has been a concerted effort to knock down the gold/silver stock market in the expectation that metal prices would follow suit. If there is such an effort underway, outside normal market forces, to influence and control gold/silver prices and the market (as believed by many) so far it does not appear to be working. And if gold/silver prices fail to break what would happen (providing manipulative attempts are currently in control) once market forces take affect.



 


Offline NBM

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2013, 05:46:10 PM »
If one were to hazard a guess, it appears quite possible that there has been a concerted effort to knock down the gold/silver stock market in the expectation that metal prices would follow suit. If there is such an effort underway, outside normal market forces, to influence and control gold/silver prices and the market (as believed by many) so far it does not appear to be working.

Looks like it's working the same as it always has to me.

A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science & Technique

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*It takes a while for a pro to accumulate a position in advance of a big move – buying too many shares at once would cause the price to rise too quickly
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*Then, he will try to time the top of his planned price rise with some "good news" about the stock he may already know about
(more..)

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-richard-wyckoff-stock-trading-method-2013-2?op=1



Offline pandamonium

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Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #28 on: March 04, 2013, 04:17:00 PM »
Gold and silver stocks were once again taken behind the woodshed and badly beaten. However these strange divergences continue:

- Gold/silver prices steadfastly refuse to break below their lows of 2011 and 2012 (so far).

- Alf Fields analysis and projection of January 13, 2012 remain in effect (my interpretation of that writing).

- Both XAU and HUI are very close to important Fibonnaci corrective retracement levels of 61.8% (an area where corrections often end) while gold is only off some 19% form its high (why such a  huge difference between the gold/silver stocks and the gold paper market price?)

Providing that metals prices do not take out the lows this should be very bullish for both metals and metal stocks.

Here`s some interesting analysis from Minyanville on other historically low gold/silver stock ratios and what it may mean short term:

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/precious-metals/articles/Precious-Metal-Stocks-Most-Oversold-Relative/3/1/2013/id/48471?camp=syndication&medium=portals&from=yahoo

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #29 on: March 21, 2013, 04:27:52 PM »
Given today`s action in the markets some of these divergences may have started to resolve.

-Gold/Silver prices appear to be turning up away form their lows after failing to make new lows.

-Alf fields analysis and projection of January 13, 2013 remains in effect.

-Both the XAU and HUI have held their Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8 and both had the strongest day in a long time (no indecisiveness today).

-The Minyanville analysis for the short term looks on target

In addition, although the Dow made a new marginal high there is still a cautionary flag for the market unless the S & P`s also confirm the new high. It`s too early to tell for sure but the broad market may have topped. It`s important to watch the metals market as the stock and medals market have had a strong inverse relationship in effect lately. It may be time to batten down the hatches (as old sea dogs used to say).