Author Topic: Is Alf Field Right?  (Read 10681 times)

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Offline pandamania

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Is Alf Field Right?
« on: November 16, 2011, 11:30:01 AM »
Below is a link to Alf`s views on where we are in this metals bull market and one can draw conclusions about what this may mean for the future of coin prices.
For those who do not know Alf he uses The Elliott Wave Principle to predict the movement of metals prices and has been extraordinarily accurate since he started writing very early in this bull market. He was one of the early pioneers of metals price prediction. If Alf is right we have a long time to go and much higher prices ahead.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field111611.html

The article is long but is interesting and well worth the read. To see how astute this man has been all of his writings can be viewed at the 321gold website.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:33:00 PM by pandamania »

Offline ghostrider80811

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2011, 12:19:34 PM »
Below is a link to Alf`s views on where we are in this metals bull market and one can draw conclusions about what this may mean for the future of coin prices.
For those who do not know Alf he uses The Elliot Wave Principle to predict the movement of metals prices and has been extraordinarily accurate since he started writing very early in this bull market. He was one of the early pioneers of metals price prediction. If Alf is right we have a long time to go and much higher prices ahead.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field111611.html

The article is long but is interesting and well worth the read. To see how astute this man has been all of his writings can be viewed at the 321gold website.


Thanks for the link.  I have a friend that reads up on this guy and heard many good things about his prediction of the PM market.  Thanks to your link I have read up on EW and still dont fully understand it!  LOL  BUT it kind of reinforced my belief that PM is in for a hell of a bull market after a correction.  Hopefully we can look back on this and smile in 5-10 years from now. 

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #2 on: November 16, 2011, 12:40:46 PM »

Thanks for the link.  I have a friend that reads up on this guy and heard many good things about his prediction of the PM market.  Thanks to your link I have read up on EW and still dont fully understand it!  LOL  BUT it kind of reinforced my belief that PM is in for a hell of a bull market after a correction.  Hopefully we can look back on this and smile in 5-10 years from now.  

Elliott and it`s brother Fibonacci are most accurate after the fact, there are always a number of possibilities before hand and that is a major limitation to correctly using Elliott. Field states his reservations about using Elliott as a forecast model. However, he has been uncanny in accurately using it ahead of price movements. Is this prophesy as his speech suggests?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:33:41 PM by pandamania »

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #3 on: January 13, 2012, 06:28:06 PM »
As a follow up this article was posted today on the 321gold website:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field011312.html

If Alf has made another correct call then "look out above".

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2012, 08:38:36 AM »
Alf`s previous Elliott Wave forecasts have mostly concentrated on the price of gold. He has now applied the Elliott Principle to silver`s possible future value in the next bull up leg.


http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/field013112.html
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:34:11 PM by pandamania »

tamo42

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2012, 11:05:55 AM »
Eliot wave analysis is totally subjective as to what qualifies as a wave and what doesn't. It's just a mental construct for framing market moves rather than a real forecasting tool.

So its usefulness comes down to the skill of the individual forecaster.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2012, 12:24:48 PM »
It`s true that Elliott wave is subjective. It`s also true that skill is involved in using Elliott as a forecasting model. Lets just say that Mr. Field has been extremely skillful in using Elliott to project waves since the start of this bull market. I believe it is also fair to say that since 2001 the gold market has followed a very distinguishable Elliott pattern which he has called in advance.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:35:01 PM by pandamania »

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2012, 09:43:49 AM »
This is Mr. Field`s observation on the meaning of yesterday`s big sell off:

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/field/field030112.html

Offline GDG's

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2012, 11:00:24 AM »
I can thank Uncle Ben for my trade in AGQ as he made me VERY HAPPY!

Offline pandamania

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2012, 10:47:46 AM »
"The bottom line is that we now have a really strong probability that the correction which started at $1913 on 23 August 2011 has been completed both in terms of Elliott waves and also in terms of time elapsed. If this is correct, the gold price should soon be expressing itself in violent upside action as it moves into the third of third wave which is still targeted to reach $4500."

This is the summary of Alf`s latest analysis dated July 31, 2012 on 321gold. If he is correct again we are at the beginning of Elliott Wave 3 of 3. According to Elliott theory this wave is typically the longest and strongest segment of any bull market. Wave 3 of 3 would then be followed by waves 4 & 5 of 3 before a major wave 4 correction sets in. If this is the case then we have a long way to go before this market reaches full maturity and it`s speculative blow off phase (major wave 5 up - which is itself divided into 5 lesser waves - and in commodities often extends itself and can be the longest).

It does appear that this is a legitimate breakout in metals and if Alf is right should be the start of a powerful move in metals and likely Modern Chinese Coins as well.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:35:55 PM by pandamania »

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2012, 01:47:11 PM »
Alf is right but I do not understand Elliot wave theory.  Here is what I understand, possibility of mid East war is going up, gold/silver bullion supplies are very low, most financial instruments are not making a return on investment but gold is, crop failure is another commodity that is going up quick, huge western debt that is unpayable means paper money goes down in value and buys alot less, Europe's future looks grim and most are selling their gold/silver for food/bills like the US former middle class has been, etc.    MCC have very low inventory as so many dealers have stated.    The demand has increased as the public is now buying.    When will prices rise?    Bullion is on the move. (I was not in the market when this happened 3+ yrs ago.)     Maybe bullion prices next week will bring some answers..................... 

Offline davidt3251

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2012, 12:47:08 AM »
Jan 18/11 Alf Fields said gold to hit $1650 in an upmove that was to start 'within the week'
http://www.jsmineset.com/2011/01/18/a-note-from-alf-fields/

Since many sheeple follow that Jim Sinclair, many of those sheeple probably bought short term gold calls and got their head handed to them.

It actually took almost 7 months to hit $1650


----

as for his current prediction, I predict you will be able to buy gold at $1640 or less at some point over the next three weeks. and while that may be a good entry, there is a chance that when Europe falls apart in Sept gold could correct a fair bit. Europe is having a hard time doing additional stimulus. China and the US dont want to pour on stimulus and get sideswiped by a European collapse or war or something.

My local restaurant here in the Vancouver area started asking for payments not using a credit card, with a big sign at the door. They're a popular outlet, about a $1.5m revenue a year business. But the credit card fees and payment delays are killing them. I have heard and seen other similar movements away from credit locally also.

So we're about a year behind Europe?

If merchants are going to that extreme, are their owners going to have the extra money to buy gold and silver?





Offline pandamonium

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2012, 10:24:54 AM »
Precious metals are still manipulated so a price drop can happen quickly.  When it does many will sell their positions and the strong hands will accumulate as usual.  So I am not sure if this is the big breakout, which will eventually happen.  I had no clue that local businesses were not able to get credit.  This is news if credit is wiped out for local companies as they will have to fold.  Many live and now will die by credit cards.  Late and delayed payments does not look good.  Also, wouldn't this hurt the purchase of expensive MCC over cheap bullion prices?................

Offline sasushi

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2012, 12:06:08 PM »
@davidt3251

US is actually ahead of Europe regarding the crises its just delayed.

A google translation of an article because of the visit of Geithner to Germany- I put the important stuff bold which you have to compare with Europe:

The question is also whether the U.S. really in crisis suffices as a model. The country has reached a debt of 100 percent of gross domestic product. This means that the liabilities are as high as the economic performance of a year. In the current year, the state is the fourth time in a row from one trillion U.S. dollars more than it earns, the deficit corresponds to 8.5 percent of economic output. Even the currently meager growth in the U.S. is financed almost exclusively on credit.

Compared to the U.S., the debt crisis of European countries except Greece suddenly seem pretty harmless. That the U.S. is not yet even slipped into a debt crisis, only one reason: the biggest economy in the world so far benefited from the fact that the demand for their bonds is so great - and the interest rates so low. Should change this, however, the United States could even slip into a gigantic financial crisis. In terms of debt and its fight Geithner is certainly not the most trustworthy guide.

Offline wyldkatt

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Re: Is Alf Field Right?
« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2012, 01:57:40 PM »
Yeah, there's only one reason Tim Geithner
even has this job, according to the New York Times, anyways.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/11/nyt-comes-pretty-damn-close-to.html