Author Topic: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...  (Read 14415 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #45 on: December 17, 2011, 08:06:25 PM »
As far as what your analysis dictates(?)... I'll give you a prime example that simply dismisses your theory.  I have a really nice 1998 100Y 1 oz. Lg. Date in OMP.  

...

A few weeks later when I was putting together a submission list for NCS, I noticed two small 'scratches' @ about 10 o' clock on the Reverse(Panda side) directly underneath the .999 and above the 100Y near the rim....virtually identical to the marks on Honus' 2003 500Y Au Panda.  Now they weren't there before and I have no idea how they got there....

...

The bottom line is this, you can analyze it until you're blue in the teeth, but you cannot predict random chaos.  There's no mystery here Guy's.... the coin has scratches on it and none of us supposed geniuses can definitively tell you how they got there.  End of story.          

The diagnostic criteria for a field flaw formed under pressure is the lack of a raised burr. The photos aren't as nice as I would like them to be, but it is clear that the marks on Honus's coin are deeper than average. Naturally, a deep scratch would require significant force, and would push up a conspicuous burr, but I see no burrs. The only way a mark can be created without burring is if the mark is formed under pressure that literally holds down the burr, like the face of a striking die does.

That's primarily how scratches and lint marks are distinguished (although there are other possible diagnostics in special circumstances, or other parts of a coin). Scratches usually have burrs, and lint marks usually don't. The deeper the mark, the bigger the burr, if it is a scratch.

I see no evidence that the flaws on Honus's coin are anything more than lint marks. I think NGC graded his coin correctly using technical grading standards, although PCGS may have penalized it on the basis of subjective eye appeal. I personally prefer NGC's grading methods, but there are pros and cons to both. If I were a pro grader myself, I would probably tend to grade using PCGS's style. That's how I grade my own coins, privately.

When buying coins other people have graded, I appreciate NGC's technical objectivity, so I can make my own subjective determination based on how much I like the coin.

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #46 on: December 17, 2011, 08:12:39 PM »
I think Honus's coin is a beautiful coin. The marks are small, and are in a location where they don't detract very much from the overall eye appeal. Only under high magnification in the photos can you see them clearly. End of my story :)

Offline Panda Halves

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+9)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1273
  • Karma: 45
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #47 on: December 17, 2011, 08:21:12 PM »
Also, key is the radiant lustster and fur details plus sharp lines and raised reliefs.
The strike on this one is exceptional. (possible early strike)
Other than lint marks and a couple of frost breaks there are no major detractions.
No post mint damage apparent.
Anything greater than simple 5x magnification to verify a flaw is 70 territory anyway, not 69.

Coinslinger

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #48 on: December 17, 2011, 08:27:58 PM »
Here's what I will offer: Honus, Ship the coin to NGC and I will personally guarantee the coin.... that is, if NGC downgrades the coin(and they will) and they don't reimburse you, I WILL.  Of course this is nothing more than a rhetorical exercise... I already know the outcome, NGC will reimburse you. I just want prove that the coin will indeed go down from a 69.

And yes Badon, you're right about the fact that the images of Honus' coin aren't clear enough to make a definitive call.... but my 1998 has NO burrs(burrs can easily be flattened over time) and I'm only using 'scratches' as a euphemism because the whole point is no one can say with any certainty what those marks are or how they got there.  The only thing I am sure of, is that the coin is NOT an honest 69 and will surely drop if resubmitted.  My apologies to Panda Halves and everyone for being so absolute.  ;)


 

Offline Panda Halves

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+9)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1273
  • Karma: 45
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #49 on: December 17, 2011, 08:37:10 PM »
That's a pretty bold move by coinslinger.
Let me check my inventory and see if I can pull any coins to qualify for te coinslinger guarantee.  :biggrin:
Indeed, there are two sides to every coin.
Speaking of....
Honus, would you mind sharing the registry number with us or providing detailed pics of the temple side?
Also, I know there were some NGC reps lurking around here a while ago.
Perhaps one of them can chime in?

PH

Coinslinger

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #50 on: December 17, 2011, 08:43:08 PM »
Something else... I currently have an MS-68 2001-D G500Y Panda that I have re-submitted three times to get a 69.... I finally had to call one of my contacts there so I could get an explanation as to why my coin couldn't achieve a 69.  The explanation given was that on the very edge of the coin there were two tiny little indentations @ about 1 o'clock and it was NGC's assertion that those minor detraction's took place AT THE MINT and thus prevented the coin grading at 69.  Now most of us know the notorious rep of the 2001-D.... they don't grade well and it's usually because of pre-packaging Mint flaws.....  I'm open to any thoughts.....?    

Offline Panda Halves

  • Supporter
  • Global Moderator
  • Trade Count: (+9)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1273
  • Karma: 45
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #51 on: December 17, 2011, 08:51:45 PM »
The high points on the gold 2001D/2001/2002 gold panda relief are higher than some issues making them prone to damage in the original mint packaging.
The forehead, nose bridge, and nose are easily damaged and difficult to detect if you don't know what to look for. The nose bridge and forehead exhibit the typical "panda rub" but the nose is mirrored and even more difficult to ascertain post mint damage. The high points are very high, and they are in the center of the coin thus the pandas get scuffed in those areas very easily during shipping, transportation, and storage. 2001D in particular is prone to be afflicted by red, blue, or even purple spots that can typically be removed by NCS. This is all on top of potential other forms of post mint damage that makes these dates particularly hard to grade.

PH

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #52 on: December 17, 2011, 08:55:21 PM »
And yes Badon, you're right about the fact that the images of Honus' coin aren't clear enough to make a definitive call.... but my 1998 has NO burrs(burrs can easily be flattened over time) and I'm only using 'scratches' as a euphemism because the whole point is no one can say with any certainty what those marks are or how they got there.

Burrs don't flatten themselves, except perhaps with some exotic nickel-titanium alloys under unusual conditions. Since this is gold, and the burrs are in a heavily frosted area, anything pushing down the burr would, at the very least, disturb the frosting. I checked for that, and I could see no evidence of it.

As for what the marks are and how they got there, I think they are either from particles of steel grinding swarf, or cardboard specks. They're a little on the big side for grinding swarf, and I can't see them well enough to tell if they're composed of short fibers from some sort of paper product like cardboard. And, their shape is unusual for both grinding swarf and paper products. Their shape leads me to believe they could possibly be planchet damage, but I think that's unlikely, especially for a gold coin with such a good strike as this one has.

Further study could do a better job of narrowing down what produced the "lint" mark. True "lint" marks usually have long, thin fibers, and I don't see anything like that here. I'm sure if we really wanted to know what caused these marks, it could be done. Traces of the object are probably still inside the marks, and their composition could possible be determined inexpensively with common XRF technology, especially if a solid particle fragment of the object is still trapped somewhere in the marks.

I don't think that's important to figure out, other than as a fun exercise to prove you can. I'm satisfied with the lint mark determination.

I have two 70 coins that have lint marks in much more conspicuous locations. They detract from the eye appeal, but they remain technical 70's because it's not post-minting damage. Further study of Honus's coin might show that there are NO post-minting marks on the coin, which could qualify it for a technical 70 grade as well. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that happen.

The ugliest coin I've ever seen was a very early American silver dollar that had filing marks all over it (to reduce the weight slightly). It was truly hideous, but because the filing was done before the coin was struck, they were not damage, and did not reduce the grade. If the filing were done after striking, the coin would be scrap metal. The coin had so many filing marks on it because it was one of the first silver dollars made - I think it was a test strike coin - and it sold for well over $1 million.

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #53 on: December 17, 2011, 08:59:26 PM »
Something else... I currently have an MS-68 2001-D G500Y Panda that I have re-submitted three times to get a 69.... I finally had to call one of my contacts there so I could get an explanation as to why my coin couldn't achieve a 69.  The explanation given was that on the very edge of the coin there were two tiny little indentations @ about 1 o'clock and it was NGC's assertion that those minor detraction's took place AT THE MINT and thus prevented the coin grading at 69.  Now most of us know the notorious rep of the 2001-D.... they don't grade well and it's usually because of pre-packaging Mint flaws.....  I'm open to any thoughts.....?    

This may be a misunderstanding of grading. Technical grading is done based on post-minting flaws. Any flaws that are post-minting will be counted against the grade. Note the word MINTING, not PACKAGING. Damage that occurs at the mint after striking IS counted against the grade, even if the mint is responsible for it, and even if it happens before the coin is packaged.

Offline Honus

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 445
  • Karma: 38
    • Anvil Fine Wares
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #54 on: December 17, 2011, 09:40:51 PM »
This has turned into one hell of a thread, and the best thing that's come from it is some good education.  I find great value in the differing opinions as well.   I can't believe how much I've learned, and about more than just this particular coin and this particular year.

I don't remember if it's come up yet in the thread, but it's probably important to mention that I paid $2350 for the coin.  So it may be safe to say that whatever grade people assign it, I probably didn't pay MS69 money for it.   At the time I bought it (end of October) I think that was probably MS68 pricing, so my cost basis may be lower than some people realize.

Coinslinger, I completely appreciate the need to protect the integrity of numismatics, and to not dilute the value of the grading system with coins that have been over-graded.  But given the price I paid, coupled with the $145 drop in the price of gold (meaning I might take a hit on the sale of mine just on the price of gold, not even counting any grade change), I'm not sure that re-submitting it makes things better for me personally.  Between any money I'd be reimbursed by NGC, plus the proceeds from sale of mine, I'm not sure I'd find myself with only enough funds to purchase an MS68, and possibly one that doesn't have the eye appeal that mine does.  My eyes see this the way Panda Halves sees it - the strike is fantastic, and the luster is beautiful.  It's possible that I'd end up in a position to "upgrade" on the coin, but the numbers, as I calculate them, tell me I'm just as likely to end up with no improvement in my situation.  And if there's a spike in the price of gold, between the time I sell mine and locate a replacement, my situation worsens.  If that stance, of placing as much importance on my own financial situation in this particular case as on the integrity of the grading industry, earns me some scorn and flame, I'll have to don the flak jacket.

Panda Halves, the NGC reg number is 3555228-001.  There are images on the NGC site, though I don't know that they're much better than mine. 

I will try to take some better photos, though I may have already reached the maximum ability of my camera's lens.

Honus
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline dragondollar

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 690
  • Karma: 24
  • Gender: Male
    • Dragon Dollar & Chinese Coins
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #55 on: December 17, 2011, 09:57:11 PM »
This thread is very interesting, I lack knowledge in the minting process and the various artifacts it may cause on coins. Badon, about scratches, I had posted a thread in the past about a strange looking scratch on one of my imperial coins. It does not look like a normal test mark, and even KONDi was not sure if it was made during the minting process or afterward. Would you mind sharing your opinion about it? http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4218.0
I would be very grateful if you could share your knowledge about this one as well!

Offline dobedo

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 441
  • Karma: -4
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #56 on: December 17, 2011, 10:13:40 PM »
Always fun to learn, especially from different perspectives. This one coin looks like a keeper to me. Some wise person once said buy/keep a coin for the coin's sake, not its slab. What do you think?

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #57 on: December 17, 2011, 10:41:16 PM »
Posted! The short version is that the scratch was made after minting, which was determined by the large raised burrs on both sides of the scratch.

Underbidder

  • Guest
  • Trade Count: (0)
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #58 on: December 17, 2011, 11:13:34 PM »
I think this demonstrates Badon's explaination on the 2003 issue quite well. Scratches leave raised areas, like shown here.
Dents, not as much.  Lint, maybe none.

Offline dragondollar

  • Trade Count: (+4)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 690
  • Karma: 24
  • Gender: Male
    • Dragon Dollar & Chinese Coins
Re: Opinions on new 2003 MS69 Panda Gold - I'm bummed...
« Reply #59 on: December 17, 2011, 11:21:28 PM »
Thanks a lot for this answer!