Author Topic: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins  (Read 13388 times)

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Offline White_Rabbit

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #45 on: July 17, 2012, 12:11:12 PM »
Nice find. I've been looking for a list of the keydates. Does this apply for 1 oz gold? So far, I'm finding that 1995 and 2000 are the ones to get first.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #46 on: July 17, 2012, 06:21:18 PM »
Wow, I completely forgot about this list....
It is interesting to reflect on how the market has developed since then.
Most notably the 1999 LD Serif has not moved as much in relation to the rest of the heavy hitting coins on the top of the list. 1996 panda halves have also temporarily lost a bit of traction.... These two instances in particular have to do with the submission of one prominent collector who flooded the market with previously seldom seen rarities.
1999 SD 1/2 pandas have become hot in relation to 1999 Serif pandas as of late and are enjoying a price hefty premium....
Sometimes there is is a difference between scarcity and availability. Right now the scarce 1999 1/2 Serif panda is "available" because of a monster hoard that was graded in a few submissions over the course of a month.
Even one year later this hoard of 1999 Serif 1/2 pandas accounts for 30-50% of the total number of 1999 Serif 1/2 pandas graded by NGC. The most notable submission was 3356523-001 through 028 where there were 10x 1999 LD plain one pandas graded and 18x 1999 Serif 1 1/2 pandas graded. Coins from this submission and subsequent 1999 1/2 serif submissions by the same individual have slowly been systematically distributed accross at least four different dealers and two major auction houses. If you bought one of these gems in the last year it is highly likely that it was part of this hoard. So... either the 1999 SD 1/2 is relatively overpriced or the 1999 LD Serif 1/2 panda is relatively undervalued in relation to it's true scarcity. (I am thinking the latter may be the case here). 40%+ of all NGC graded 1996 1/2 pandas were also submitted in this hoard.
 

Offline PandaQuest

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #47 on: July 17, 2012, 11:09:00 PM »
89' Large Date gets no love and should be on this list.  It might not be popular but it's still very scarce... Sleeper...  Maybe.

Offline PandaQuest

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #48 on: July 17, 2012, 11:17:37 PM »
Are the 5 best in high grade still considered current, or should it be revised?

Maybe a list of the top 5 in OMP?  Markets flooded with graded coins, would be an interesting list.

Offline badon

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2012, 11:52:57 PM »
I'm not asking for much, I just want them all!

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #50 on: July 21, 2012, 12:43:05 AM »
Are the 5 best in high grade still considered current, or should it be revised?

Maybe a list of the top 5 in OMP?  Markets flooded with graded coins, would be an interesting list.

Please keep in mind lists are nothing more than an opinion and should be taken as such...
I think those actually are still good picks for grade. I'd perhaps replace 1985 with 2001D if I had to make a single change on the already outdated grade list.
1982 is also holding up as  a grade rarity coin as well.
I don't specifically collect OMP pieces but a list of good OMP choices would probably be a good idea!
2003 seems like a good OMP choice to me.
What would your picks be?

Underbidder

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2012, 12:50:27 AM »
A pretty good opinion, I would say, coming from "The Expert".  :biggrin:

My picks?

I'd say, but that would be tellin'.  ;)

Agreed, 2003 is one of the most beautiful and unique designs, before the mintage increases.

There are still a couple of "off the radar" picks.   Am still a buyer.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #52 on: April 28, 2016, 10:39:41 AM »
It is interesting to revisit threads like this one http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3598.0 and others  http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=11109.msg64442#msg64442 to see how things change over the years.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #53 on: April 29, 2016, 12:18:34 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.



Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #54 on: April 29, 2016, 12:31:01 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.




How about the 2000 1/2 (mintage 20,811), as compared to the 2003 1/2 (mintage 25,000)?

Also, how about the 1997 and 1997 with even lower mintages?

Can they be in the next 5 picks?

Your insight is welcome.

Thanks.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #55 on: April 29, 2016, 09:06:29 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.





Although I'm not sure I agree with the 1998 G1/2 SD in front of the LD, your comment does raise a valid point.  The prolonged master set effect has had a distorting effect on the market that I did not predict.  For instance, I purchased 99 G1/2 SD and LD serif.  In the short term, the better investment perhaps was to put all your money into 99 G1/2 LD Plain.  The percentage gains have been greater for the common variety.  As you say, those cheaper common varieties are now locked up in the master sets, so the available NGC MS69 (at least in the short term) skew more towards the "rarer" varieties than they did three years ago.  I'm not complaining, as the semi-key G1/2 have done well overall, I'm just pointing out something I missed, with the goal of learning and being better able to predict the future trends  Perhaps now is the time to buy those rarer varieties, as the premium is compressed.  If the master set game ends, then the ones coming to market in the next decade will skew more towards the "common" variety.  Although betting against the master set trend is a gamble.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2016, 06:53:50 PM »
Attached is a screen shot of Pandora's two posts which were deleted during the recent database reset.
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Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #57 on: April 30, 2016, 07:30:12 PM »
Thank you +1