Author Topic: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins  (Read 14402 times)

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Offline Pandora

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Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« on: August 01, 2011, 03:40:56 PM »
1/2 oz Gold Panda coins are in demand and difficult to get. There have been big price changes for 1982 and 1996 years. While we spotted a couple of 2000 Mirrors, 1995 LD has disappeared since a long time. So, how experts see the current top 10 or 15 pecking order for 1/2 oz gold pandas to collect in 69 grade?

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2011, 04:15:12 PM »
To simplify - What are the top 10 or 15 dates for the 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins in 69 grade...

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2011, 04:17:27 PM »
Nice topic!
Inclusive or exclusive of Proof coins?

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2011, 04:20:35 PM »
Exclusive of proof, or we can cover both lists separately.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2011, 05:27:26 PM »
This is a view of my personal "Current" 1/2 gold MS69 pecking order which is an easier list than my personal "Projected" MS69...  :001_smile:

Top 21 by current market:
1998 LD
2000 Mirrored
1999 LD Serif
1998 SD
1995 LD
1999 SD
1996 LD
1996 SD
1995 SD
1982
1999 LD Plain 1
1994 LD/SD
1992 LD/SD
1993 LD/SD
1997 LD
2000 Frosted
2003
2002
1997 SD
1990 LD/SD
1991 LD/SD

*Top 5 Nicest 1/2 gold panda coins to own specifically due to being high-grade MS69:
1987Y
2002
1983
1984
1985

Thoughts?
PH

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2011, 05:34:31 PM »
I thought I saw the 82 move up quite a bit in price the last two weeks, up to 3k,  up a few notches on the list, no?

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2011, 05:42:19 PM »
Single 1995 hasn't sold at auction since the new 82 highs. More 2-3k sales are needed to establish a baseline for the 1982. I think the 1995 coins are worth more in relation than a 1982 if they were to sell together. 1982 is moving up fast though. 1996 coins are consistently selling between 2 and 3k in recent months so they have a baseline. 1995 has been over 2k for a while now and was one of the first to get there.
Really though, this is a fluid list. The top 5 are solid for now but the rest move up and down quite a bit. Some coins like the 1992 and 1994 have seen so few sales that their price could be higher as well.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2011, 05:49:05 PM »
1992 and 1994 - both are unseen for a long time. I would place 1994 at around $2500, and 1992 probably less than 2000.
Also I would place 1997 LD above 1993.

1996 seems to be the dark horse. Based on market price alone, it surely has crossed 1995 SD.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2011, 05:59:46 PM by Pandora »

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2011, 06:06:51 PM »
Current total number of 69 graded coins by NGC:


1990   22
1991   63
1992   44
1993   82
1994   86
1995   91
1996   44
1997   49
1998   83
1999   91

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2011, 06:24:56 PM »
For future value I would agree with you on the 1997 LD (maybe even higher). But it isn't a matter of 1997 falling so much as 1993 climbing recently. The 1997 LD is more scarce yet people often treat the year 1997 without regard to the variety which makes the LD stagnate due to overabundance of halves (SD/LD) for the year. 1993 SD/LD varieties are not fully understood so when the price rises on the coin it does so without regard to variety. 1993 was undervalued for a long time. This seems to not be the case anymore.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2011, 06:29:00 PM »
Yes, 1993 seems to have climbed up. But the total number of NGC 69s for 1997 (LD and SD combined) is only 47, compared to 82 for 1993 (all varieties). 1997 has hardly over-abundance of 69s.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2011, 06:38:45 PM »
Okay, you convinced me so move the 1997 LD up the list!
For 1992 it has the opposite problem as the 1982. 1982 hasn't established a baseline but has been readily available and climbing in price in both raw and graded examples in the past few months.
It IS selling and just needs a baseline before it can be placed accurately.
As far as I'm concerned 1992 has no baseline so it is more of a wild card in the other sense. I could have bought a half dozen 2000 pandas or even 1982 for that matter in the last few months but not so with 1992 as raw or graded. Maybe I'm way off and it is worth less than all the other 1990 dates but from what I can tell it is quite scarce. Who knows what one is worth... only one way to find out. I can tell you that IF I were in the market to buy a 1992 I would pay more for it than 2000. But I must admit I would also pay more for a 1997 LD than any 1993 as well so you have me there.... remember though you asked for current pricing  :biggrin:

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2011, 06:41:29 PM »
Population data isn't always a good indicator of true rarity.  Often times a coins rarity gets publicized which increases its popularity and in turn its population data.  If a coin is popular or thought to be rare, people seek it out which causes dealers to seek it out and brings more of the coins to market either from sellers that are happy with the higher price or sellers / dealers in China or other parts of the world.  The 98 & 95s are examples of this.

Also, for example the 1982 may not be the rarest coin but its rarity vs popularity ratio makes it a higher value coin.  It is a first year release, always more buyers / collectors for those.  Take a look at the 1983 Silver panda as an example of that.  PF69's going for around 8,000 recently.  I dare say the 1982 golds are as rare or moreso than the 1983 silver panda.  ESPECIALLY a MS69 grade as the 82's are notorious for not grading well.




Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2011, 06:42:39 PM »
Curious, where would you place 2001-D?

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2011, 06:47:19 PM »
Population data isn't always a good indicator of true rarity.  Often times a coins rarity gets publicized which increases its popularity and in turn its population data.  If a coin is popular or thought to be rare, people seek it out which causes dealers to seek it out and brings more of the coins to market either from sellers that are happy with the higher price or sellers / dealers in China or other parts of the world.  The 98 & 95s are examples of this.

Also, for example the 1982 may not be the rarest coin but its rarity vs popularity ratio makes it a higher value coin.  It is a first year release, always more buyers / collectors for those.  Take a look at the 1983 Silver panda as an example of that.  PF69's going for around 8,000 recently.  I dare say the 1982 golds are as rare or moreso than the 1983 silver panda.  ESPECIALLY a MS69 grade as the 82's are notorious for not grading well.





Yes, the current list should take all 3 factors into account:

1. Mintage rarity
2. Grade Rarity
3. Popularity.

The goal is to produce a list that we as collectors can follow.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2011, 06:50:04 PM »
I honestly don't know on 2001-D. Wild-card. It seems to be more common than previously thought though. No baseline and not comfortable putting it anywhere in the list for now. I can say that they don't generally grade well and typically have unresolvable issues. Raw ones keep popping up here and there but from the photos they aren't the sort I would personally chance it on. I'd feel very comfortable putting it on the latter list of coins worth owning as an already graded MS69 though.

Offline Grip

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2011, 07:18:22 PM »
Current total number of 69 graded coins by NGC:


1990   22
1991   63
1992   44
1993   82
1994   86
1995   91
1996   44
1997   49
1998   83
1999   91

These listed 50Y gold Pandas have extremely rare numbers for all dates that have been graded.  As a total number of graded coins these are all rare! The 94 1/2 oz unicorn  had an advertised mintage of 1100, and NGC has a total 43 graded (look at the 96 Panda 69's-very close). The 95 Yellow River had 2500 minted with 39 NGC graded coins (look at the 92 Panda 69's-very close). The 95 Unicorn had 2000 minted- with 54 NGC graded  coins (look at the 91 Panda 69's-very close). You cant go by total graded coins as this is a wild card as to who is holding raw coins that may never be graded. If you look at the numbers though, all these 1/2 Panda dates should be bought. Kudos to PH for discovering this early on...
« Last Edit: August 01, 2011, 07:26:16 PM by Grip »

Offline pandaguy212

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2011, 07:18:55 PM »
I think this is a great topic - we should further diversify this list and start the pecking order for 1oz, 1/4oz, 1/10oz and 1/20oz sizes

Long way to go  :001_smile:

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2011, 07:51:57 PM »
One other thing to think about.  The Panda coins were widely sold and distributed throughout the world and not as much in China.  A large portion ended up in the US where grading has become MUCH more popular than in China.  One MIGHT could make the assumption that population data for pandas could be closer to their final population numbers then say Lunars or even unicorns that have stayed more in mainland china.  Clearly there are still more coins out there to be graded both from China and elsewhere but there might be something to what I'm saying.

I'm certainly no expert though!

Seth

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2011, 07:59:00 PM »
We would all love to hear PandaCollector's opinion. He is writing the second edition of his Panda book and he might have some surprises planned...

Offline KonaJim

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2011, 09:35:53 PM »
One thing I would have to bring up concerning the 2000 gold mirror 50 yuan versus the 1998 gold Large Date.  I am lucky enough to own both of these coins right now.  For the right price I could a 1998 Large Date today.  I just sold one yesterday for $ 14,000.00.  I have no way of buying a 2000, 50 yuan gold mirror.  Therefore I would rank the 2000 mirror first and the 1998 Large Date second.

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2011, 09:42:35 PM »
Thank you for selling that 98 at that price!  Bless you, KJ!   :thumbup1:  you just raised my net worth, and for that, thanks!

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2011, 10:17:01 PM »
Current total number of 69 graded coins by NGC:


1990   22
1991   63
1992   44
1993   82
1994   86
1995   91
1996   44
1997   49
1998   83
1999   91


Whoa, sticking out in those numbers is the overlooked 1990. Those numbers are comparably LOW at just 22?  Vs 83 and 91 of the much lower Mintage 1998 and 1999?  Is this an undervalued opportunity or...?

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2011, 10:47:32 PM »
Konajim, thank you for chiming in.
Could you please also share actual prices realized for the 1999 SD and 1994 halves that were on eBay but didn't run their course?

I think 1990 is absolutely undervalued but also less are graded because until recently it wasn't recognized as being worthy of grading. It also grades fairly well so less people are chasing a 69 the way you need to do with a date like 1987Y. As it becomes comparatively more valuable more will be graded. As Konajim pointed out 1990 is one of those "fine wine" years to pay attention to.

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2011, 11:00:05 PM »
One thing I would have to bring up concerning the 2000 gold mirror 50 yuan versus the 1998 gold Large Date.  I am lucky enough to own both of these coins right now.  For the right price I could a 1998 Large Date today.  I just sold one yesterday for $ 14,000.00.  I have no way of buying a 2000, 50 yuan gold mirror.  Therefore I would rank the 2000 mirror first and the 1998 Large Date second.

With that in mind....that makes the 1998 LD raw that sold for under 5k on ebay today a sweet deal!  Wish I had grabbed that I guess.  Great buy to whoever did if it grades well at all.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #25 on: August 01, 2011, 11:01:12 PM »
Thank you for selling that 98 at that price!  Bless you, KJ!   :thumbup1:  you just raised my net worth, and for that, thanks!

Underbidder, you certainly deserve your bragging rights  :thumbup:

Underbidder

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #26 on: August 01, 2011, 11:02:10 PM »
So, Halves, watcha think the chances are that folks got loads of those 1990 halves in mint wrap, just laying' around sliding around in drawers after all these years, that might grade 69 if sent in?

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #27 on: August 01, 2011, 11:04:16 PM »
Underbidder, you certainly deserve your bragging rights  :thumbup:

Yeah, I was stoked to pick one up a few weeks ago at a steal price, underbid and got it  :blush: , and now it's doubled thanks to KJ if the price holds. :thumbup1:  We all owe a debt of gratitude not only to our trusted suppliers, but also the tuned-in top sellers who help us by raising the category to new heights.

Offline KonaJim

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #28 on: August 02, 2011, 02:50:37 AM »
The 1999 Small Date sold for $ 2,500.00.  I have sold several 1994 50 yuan pandas at prices ranging from $ 1,800 to $ 2,500.00.  I just sold the 1998 50 yuan small date PCGS MS68 gold panda for $ 3,500.00.  Hope this helps the 50 yuan Panda collectors.

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #29 on: August 02, 2011, 02:55:22 AM »
It does, thanks!

Offline Straitssettlementshop

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #30 on: August 02, 2011, 03:07:53 AM »
Jim,

Thanks for your guidance  :thumbup:

Offline ghostrider80811

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #31 on: August 02, 2011, 12:24:28 PM »
Thank you for selling that 98 at that price!  Bless you, KJ!   :thumbup1:  you just raised my net worth, and for that, thanks!

Nice!

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #32 on: August 03, 2011, 05:28:35 PM »
The 1/2 oz gold panda series is fast becoming the choice for serious collectors. While the pecking order is sufficiently helpful, it will also help to quantify the relative rareness (or degree of difficulty in obtaining) for them....for example, 1999 SD is more rare than 1996 LD. In comparison, how rare is 1995 LD compared to 1999 SD? So, if we put 2000 Mirror at 1000 points of rarity, where other coins will lie on that scale...?

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #33 on: August 03, 2011, 11:34:58 PM »
One thing I would have to bring up concerning the 2000 gold mirror 50 yuan versus the 1998 gold Large Date.  I am lucky enough to own both of these coins right now.  For the right price I could a 1998 Large Date today.  I just sold one yesterday for $ 14,000.00.  I have no way of buying a 2000, 50 yuan gold mirror.  Therefore I would rank the 2000 mirror first and the 1998 Large Date second.

One comment on this.  Correct me if I'm wrong Jim.  It is my understanding that the 2000 mirrored coins were more widely distributed throughout China.  They were almost like a y2k commemorative.  I was told they are a fair bit easier to get inside China then here in America.  They are no doubt rare but that fact could mean in time they might not be as rare as we think.  Distribution patterns of these coins can make a big difference on how rare we think they are and how rare they actually are.

Offline badon

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #34 on: August 03, 2011, 11:40:57 PM »
Good point Obsidian. One thing is for certain, the ones driving prices up on the 1998 large dates are Chinese buyers.

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #35 on: August 03, 2011, 11:44:27 PM »
With the large date 1998s going for so much what should the small dates be bringing?  Also are the Chinese buyers recognizing the 1999 serif 1 varieties and paying for the rarity?

Offline badon

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #36 on: August 04, 2011, 12:40:15 AM »
The small dates are doing pretty well too, but obviously not quite as well as the large dates. The 1999 large date serif 1 has been slower to catch on.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #37 on: August 04, 2011, 12:49:40 AM »
I have heard 1999 Small Date is very hot in China these days.

Offline KonaJim

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #38 on: August 04, 2011, 12:57:04 AM »
Concerning the 2000 gold Mirror panda, my feeling is if these were more common, or more widely distributed in China more would slip out for the right price.  They would have a distribution pattern similar to the 1998 Large Date.  As I stated earlier the 1998 Large Dates although very scarce can be had at a price.  Is it possible that there is a hoard of 2000 gold Mirror pandas, absolutely.  Is it likely, probably not.  In the year 2000 gold was hovering at it's lows, and gold investment was very low, probably extremely low in China.  My guess along with some other people I know is that they were struck as a test run.  It appears as though some sheets of the 100 yuan coins got out and a few sets got out, but in all likelihood very few were run, or what was run was melted.  I get e-mails from some of the biggest collectors in the world asking for the Mirror pandas.  Right now, there are virtually none to be had in the fractionals.

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #39 on: August 04, 2011, 09:58:42 PM »
So, Halves, watcha think the chances are that folks got loads of those 1990 halves in mint wrap, just laying' around sliding around in drawers after all these years, that might grade 69 if sent in?

Hey Panda Halves, seriously, your thoughts on the 1990.  With so few of them, just 22, can you actually believe there are enough raw ones out there that are still pristine, to be able to be submitted and garner 69?  It occurs to me anybody trying to assemble a 69 set has to get one of the few 1990s.  It is the clog in the pipeline.  People have to go through that in order to make a set, it seems to be the limiting factor way more than the 95, 98 and. 99.  Got figures for the 82 and 84? Are there any other similarly obscure low MS 69 years?

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #40 on: August 05, 2011, 12:25:33 AM »
1989 and 1990 are kind of fringe years that haven't been treated as anything special. I actually don't think 1990 halves in general are as rare as the rest of the 1990's but they do continue to be undervalued. The market for these is still in the younger stages so I wouldn't rely on NGC population numbers for almost all years just yet. Since 1990 wasn't anything special for a long time there weren't that many graded. They can still be had relatively cheap in the raw. My recommendation for 1990 is to find one you like, evaluate it carefully in the sealed package and grade it yourself. They grade well, unlike a something like 1987Y. As more people begin collecting and more demand enters the market for high graded coins registry numbers will become increasingly meaningful. For most panda half dates they don't currently reflect actual scarcity. I like the MS 1992 for obscure years. I think it is scarcer than is understood, difficult to obtain, and priced less than other 1990 coins.
After looking through jewelry stores in various states for pandas I discovered 1990 to be one of the most common if not the most common fractional to be used as jewelry. 1989/1990 was a transition year in China where the country fell out of favor with much of the Western world due to political issues. The 1990 1/20 and 1/10 pandas have a lot going for them. They were underappreciated at the time of distribution, probably often melted, and.... they became jewelry pieces. 1990 is one of the nicest looking older dates in terms of bold artistic styling. It has eye appeal which creates popularity. So I think it is safe to say that it meets many of the criteria for a good investment. Although I am partial to the 1/2 size as a collector I would venture to guess the smaller sizes to be great investments for the year due to their frequent use as jewelry. 1/2 pandas don't typically end up in ring mounts and earring sets.

Offline badon

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #41 on: August 05, 2011, 01:08:33 AM »
Thanks for that great information!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2012, 07:44:34 AM »
This is a view of my personal "Current" 1/2 gold MS69 pecking order which is an easier list than my personal "Projected" MS69...  :001_smile:

Top 21 by current market:
1998 LD
2000 Mirrored
1999 LD Serif
1998 SD
1995 LD
1999 SD
1996 LD
1996 SD
1995 SD
1982
1999 LD Plain 1
1994 LD/SD
1992 LD/SD
1993 LD/SD
1997 LD
2000 Frosted
2003
2002
1997 SD
1990 LD/SD
1991 LD/SD

*Top 5 Nicest 1/2 gold panda coins to own specifically due to being high-grade MS69:
1987Y
2002
1983
1984
1985

Thoughts?
PH


I just stumbled upon this interesting thread from about one year ago. I wonder how things have changed since then.  Any more recent data to suggest certain dates/varieties are more/less common than was thought at the time of this discussion?

Online mook

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #43 on: July 17, 2012, 10:13:35 AM »
I think, 1990 SM is very hard to find, even more MS69

Offline comeaux

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #44 on: July 17, 2012, 11:58:15 AM »
I think, 1990 SM is very hard to find, even more MS69

Agreed ... the 1990 Small Date half and quarter ounce are almost nonexistent.

Offline White_Rabbit

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #45 on: July 17, 2012, 12:11:12 PM »
Nice find. I've been looking for a list of the keydates. Does this apply for 1 oz gold? So far, I'm finding that 1995 and 2000 are the ones to get first.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #46 on: July 17, 2012, 06:21:18 PM »
Wow, I completely forgot about this list....
It is interesting to reflect on how the market has developed since then.
Most notably the 1999 LD Serif has not moved as much in relation to the rest of the heavy hitting coins on the top of the list. 1996 panda halves have also temporarily lost a bit of traction.... These two instances in particular have to do with the submission of one prominent collector who flooded the market with previously seldom seen rarities.
1999 SD 1/2 pandas have become hot in relation to 1999 Serif pandas as of late and are enjoying a price hefty premium....
Sometimes there is is a difference between scarcity and availability. Right now the scarce 1999 1/2 Serif panda is "available" because of a monster hoard that was graded in a few submissions over the course of a month.
Even one year later this hoard of 1999 Serif 1/2 pandas accounts for 30-50% of the total number of 1999 Serif 1/2 pandas graded by NGC. The most notable submission was 3356523-001 through 028 where there were 10x 1999 LD plain one pandas graded and 18x 1999 Serif 1 1/2 pandas graded. Coins from this submission and subsequent 1999 1/2 serif submissions by the same individual have slowly been systematically distributed accross at least four different dealers and two major auction houses. If you bought one of these gems in the last year it is highly likely that it was part of this hoard. So... either the 1999 SD 1/2 is relatively overpriced or the 1999 LD Serif 1/2 panda is relatively undervalued in relation to it's true scarcity. (I am thinking the latter may be the case here). 40%+ of all NGC graded 1996 1/2 pandas were also submitted in this hoard.
 

Offline PandaQuest

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #47 on: July 17, 2012, 11:09:00 PM »
89' Large Date gets no love and should be on this list.  It might not be popular but it's still very scarce... Sleeper...  Maybe.

Offline PandaQuest

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #48 on: July 17, 2012, 11:17:37 PM »
Are the 5 best in high grade still considered current, or should it be revised?

Maybe a list of the top 5 in OMP?  Markets flooded with graded coins, would be an interesting list.

Offline badon

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #49 on: July 17, 2012, 11:52:57 PM »
I'm not asking for much, I just want them all!

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #50 on: July 21, 2012, 12:43:05 AM »
Are the 5 best in high grade still considered current, or should it be revised?

Maybe a list of the top 5 in OMP?  Markets flooded with graded coins, would be an interesting list.

Please keep in mind lists are nothing more than an opinion and should be taken as such...
I think those actually are still good picks for grade. I'd perhaps replace 1985 with 2001D if I had to make a single change on the already outdated grade list.
1982 is also holding up as  a grade rarity coin as well.
I don't specifically collect OMP pieces but a list of good OMP choices would probably be a good idea!
2003 seems like a good OMP choice to me.
What would your picks be?

Underbidder

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #51 on: July 21, 2012, 12:50:27 AM »
A pretty good opinion, I would say, coming from "The Expert".  :biggrin:

My picks?

I'd say, but that would be tellin'.  ;)

Agreed, 2003 is one of the most beautiful and unique designs, before the mintage increases.

There are still a couple of "off the radar" picks.   Am still a buyer.

Offline Birdman

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #52 on: April 28, 2016, 10:39:41 AM »
It is interesting to revisit threads like this one http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3598.0 and others  http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=11109.msg64442#msg64442 to see how things change over the years.

Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #53 on: April 29, 2016, 12:18:34 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.



Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #54 on: April 29, 2016, 12:31:01 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.




How about the 2000 1/2 (mintage 20,811), as compared to the 2003 1/2 (mintage 25,000)?

Also, how about the 1997 and 1997 with even lower mintages?

Can they be in the next 5 picks?

Your insight is welcome.

Thanks.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #55 on: April 29, 2016, 09:06:29 PM »
Thanks for bringing this up Birdman. I remember starting this thread when I had just started collecting 1/2 oz pandas - with inspiration (insistence?) from Panda Halves. This forum helped create quite a vibrant community of 1/2 panda collectors.

I would love to help start with my top 5 picks here:

1995 1/2 (LD, then SD)
1994 1/2
1998 1/2 (SD, then LD) - my guess is, enough SDs are now locked-up in master sets. Remaining available for trade supply of LD might be higher than SD.
1999 1/2 LD Serif 1
2003 1/2

Cheers.





Although I'm not sure I agree with the 1998 G1/2 SD in front of the LD, your comment does raise a valid point.  The prolonged master set effect has had a distorting effect on the market that I did not predict.  For instance, I purchased 99 G1/2 SD and LD serif.  In the short term, the better investment perhaps was to put all your money into 99 G1/2 LD Plain.  The percentage gains have been greater for the common variety.  As you say, those cheaper common varieties are now locked up in the master sets, so the available NGC MS69 (at least in the short term) skew more towards the "rarer" varieties than they did three years ago.  I'm not complaining, as the semi-key G1/2 have done well overall, I'm just pointing out something I missed, with the goal of learning and being better able to predict the future trends  Perhaps now is the time to buy those rarer varieties, as the premium is compressed.  If the master set game ends, then the ones coming to market in the next decade will skew more towards the "common" variety.  Although betting against the master set trend is a gamble.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #56 on: April 30, 2016, 06:53:50 PM »
Attached is a screen shot of Pandora's two posts which were deleted during the recent database reset.
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Offline Pandora

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Re: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins
« Reply #57 on: April 30, 2016, 07:30:12 PM »
Thank you +1