Topic: Current Pecking Order for 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins

[Pandora]

1/2 oz Gold Panda coins are in demand and difficult to get. There have been big price changes for 1982 and 1996 years. While we spotted a couple of 2000 Mirrors, 1995 LD has disappeared since a long time. So, how experts see the current top 10 or 15 pecking order for 1/2 oz gold pandas to collect in 69 grade?

[Pandora]

To simplify - What are the top 10 or 15 dates for the 1/2 oz Gold Panda coins in 69 grade...

[Panda Halves]

Nice topic!
Inclusive or exclusive of Proof coins?

[Pandora]

Exclusive of proof, or we can cover both lists separately.

[Panda Halves]

This is a view of my personal "Current" 1/2 gold MS69 pecking order which is an easier list than my personal "Projected" MS69...  

Top 21 by current market:
1998 LD
2000 Mirrored
1999 LD Serif
1998 SD
1995 LD
1999 SD
1996 LD
1996 SD
1995 SD
1982
1999 LD Plain 1
1994 LD/SD
1992 LD/SD
1993 LD/SD
1997 LD
2000 Frosted
2003
2002
1997 SD
1990 LD/SD
1991 LD/SD

*Top 5 Nicest 1/2 gold panda coins to own specifically due to being high-grade MS69:
1987Y
2002
1983
1984
1985

Thoughts?
PH

[Underbidder]

I thought I saw the 82 move up quite a bit in price the last two weeks, up to 3k,  up a few notches on the list, no?

[Panda Halves]

Single 1995 hasn't sold at auction since the new 82 highs. More 2-3k sales are needed to establish a baseline for the 1982. I think the 1995 coins are worth more in relation than a 1982 if they were to sell together. 1982 is moving up fast though. 1996 coins are consistently selling between 2 and 3k in recent months so they have a baseline. 1995 has been over 2k for a while now and was one of the first to get there.
Really though, this is a fluid list. The top 5 are solid for now but the rest move up and down quite a bit. Some coins like the 1992 and 1994 have seen so few sales that their price could be higher as well.

[Pandora]

1992 and 1994 - both are unseen for a long time. I would place 1994 at around $2500, and 1992 probably less than 2000.
Also I would place 1997 LD above 1993.

1996 seems to be the dark horse. Based on market price alone, it surely has crossed 1995 SD.

[Pandora]

Current total number of 69 graded coins by NGC:


1990   22
1991   63
1992   44
1993   82
1994   86
1995   91
1996   44
1997   49
1998   83
1999   91

[Panda Halves]

For future value I would agree with you on the 1997 LD (maybe even higher). But it isn't a matter of 1997 falling so much as 1993 climbing recently. The 1997 LD is more scarce yet people often treat the year 1997 without regard to the variety which makes the LD stagnate due to overabundance of halves (SD/LD) for the year. 1993 SD/LD varieties are not fully understood so when the price rises on the coin it does so without regard to variety. 1993 was undervalued for a long time. This seems to not be the case anymore.

[Pandora]

Yes, 1993 seems to have climbed up. But the total number of NGC 69s for 1997 (LD and SD combined) is only 47, compared to 82 for 1993 (all varieties). 1997 has hardly over-abundance of 69s.

[Panda Halves]

Okay, you convinced me so move the 1997 LD up the list!
For 1992 it has the opposite problem as the 1982. 1982 hasn't established a baseline but has been readily available and climbing in price in both raw and graded examples in the past few months.
It IS selling and just needs a baseline before it can be placed accurately.
As far as I'm concerned 1992 has no baseline so it is more of a wild card in the other sense. I could have bought a half dozen 2000 pandas or even 1982 for that matter in the last few months but not so with 1992 as raw or graded. Maybe I'm way off and it is worth less than all the other 1990 dates but from what I can tell it is quite scarce. Who knows what one is worth... only one way to find out. I can tell you that IF I were in the market to buy a 1992 I would pay more for it than 2000. But I must admit I would also pay more for a 1997 LD than any 1993 as well so you have me there.... remember though you asked for current pricing 

[Obsidian]

Population data isn't always a good indicator of true rarity.  Often times a coins rarity gets publicized which increases its popularity and in turn its population data.  If a coin is popular or thought to be rare, people seek it out which causes dealers to seek it out and brings more of the coins to market either from sellers that are happy with the higher price or sellers / dealers in China or other parts of the world.  The 98 & 95s are examples of this.

Also, for example the 1982 may not be the rarest coin but its rarity vs popularity ratio makes it a higher value coin.  It is a first year release, always more buyers / collectors for those.  Take a look at the 1983 Silver panda as an example of that.  PF69's going for around 8,000 recently.  I dare say the 1982 golds are as rare or moreso than the 1983 silver panda.  ESPECIALLY a MS69 grade as the 82's are notorious for not grading well.

[Pandora]

Curious, where would you place 2001-D?

[Pandora]

Population data isn't always a good indicator of true rarity.  Often times a coins rarity gets publicized which increases its popularity and in turn its population data.  If a coin is popular or thought to be rare, people seek it out which causes dealers to seek it out and brings more of the coins to market either from sellers that are happy with the higher price or sellers / dealers in China or other parts of the world.  The 98 & 95s are examples of this.

Also, for example the 1982 may not be the rarest coin but its rarity vs popularity ratio makes it a higher value coin.  It is a first year release, always more buyers / collectors for those.  Take a look at the 1983 Silver panda as an example of that.  PF69's going for around 8,000 recently.  I dare say the 1982 golds are as rare or moreso than the 1983 silver panda.  ESPECIALLY a MS69 grade as the 82's are notorious for not grading well.

Yes, the current list should take all 3 factors into account:

1. Mintage rarity
2. Grade Rarity
3. Popularity.

The goal is to produce a list that we as collectors can follow.