Author Topic: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?  (Read 18464 times)

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low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2011, 01:55:20 AM »
Many thanks Panda Halves.

That is very nice translation.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #46 on: November 29, 2011, 02:02:46 AM »
Thanks very much for the translation.

Has Mr. Ge read my info about the cause of WSOD? He is right that the plastic is damaging, but it's not compressed air that causes it. The plastic does not cause WSOD, although it does cause other problems. He's also right about oily residues, both from the plastic and from the compressed air, if the air compressor allows oil into the air stream - many do.

The oil from the air stream is possibly a sulfurized machine oil, although regular oils often contain sulfur too - the sulfur in the oil reacts with the copper to produce a black color. Opening the plastic bag will not stop this reaction, but it could start a WSOD reaction (on silver only).

The oil from the plastic is the plasticizer, and it contains chlorine that will eventually corrode nearly all metals, especially if humid air is available.

Some of the residues I have seen on coins look a lot like a metalworking facility's normal sulfurized cutting oil. It could get onto the coins a variety of ways. Also, hydraulic oil may be getting on the coins, although that usually contains less sulfur because it is known to damage metal components, especially brass and bronze (copper) fittings on the hydraulic equipment.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #47 on: December 15, 2012, 10:40:28 AM »
Since this is a sister topic to Graded Coins in China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2758.0

I`ll reintroduce this question as well:

Are too many Pandas Being Graded?

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #48 on: December 15, 2012, 11:45:42 AM »
Since this is a sister topic to Graded Coins in China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2758.0

I`ll reintroduce this question as well:

Are too many Pandas Being Graded?

I don't think so. It is likely that the more prevalent graded coins become the more demand for them increases. As they become more acceptable they become more popular and also more collectible. Dealers don't market what they don't have in stock and marketing matters.
One need only look at the marketing of 1/10 gold panda sets to understand this trend.
The trend is your friend.  N38

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #49 on: December 15, 2012, 12:02:33 PM »
Panda Halves,

Currently almost 50% of the silver pandas listed on eBay are graded by NGC (32.3%) and PCGS (13.4%) and pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?

Regards,

Pandamania

Offline smokymcpot

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #50 on: December 16, 2012, 12:46:02 PM »
In my collection, it's mostly OMP's and I only have 1 or 2 slabbed pandas. I don't know why, I have a thing for OMP's compared to slabbed pandas although I know slabbed pandas are better in terms of conserving and the value of the coin in the future.

I'm a chinese and from Malaysia, maybe it's a chinese thing, I don't know.... :)

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #51 on: December 16, 2012, 01:07:41 PM »
Panda Halves,

Currently almost 50% of the silver pandas listed on eBay are graded by NGC (32.3%) and PCGS (13.4%) and pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?
I would think so. When quality OMP becomes rarer, the price should reflect its rarity more appropriately, thus its demand. Remember, OMP coins can always be graded later, a graded coin can always be regraded with the same or different grader, but a graded coin can never go back to be OMP.

As a collector, I'm with smokymcpot. After I sell my coins, which could be never, I may change my mind.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #52 on: December 16, 2012, 01:15:00 PM »
I don't think so. It is likely that the more prevalent graded coins become the more demand for them increases. As they become more acceptable they become more popular and also more collectible. Dealers don't market what they don't have in stock and marketing matters.
One need only look at the marketing of 1/10 gold panda sets to understand this trend.
The trend is your friend.  N38
The trend could be your friend, or your enemy. There are at least 2 sides to a coin, or a stock, or a story, or a story about a stock. I have a tendency to go against the trend, and that's why I tend to become more a loser than not :(

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #53 on: December 16, 2012, 02:41:06 PM »
... pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?

The reason fewer valuable OMP coins are available on ebay and other online venues is dealers are SLOWLY (most dealers are older and tend to adapt to change slowly, takes years for them to change their attitudes, not months as it should) learning that graded coins sell for strong premium to OMP because authenticity and quality risk is removed for the buyer siting at their computer.  

98%+ what I buy every week is OMP, that is what is sold dealer to dealer and at coin shows because a trusted relationship exists between counterparties or at coin shows you can see before you buy, however when that relationship doesn't exist then it is in the best interest of both parties to deal in graded coins to avoid misunderstandings.  

Here are the questions you must ask yourself today: When you are ready to sell your "69 quality" OMP coins in the future will you:

a) do it over the internet (receive 12%-19.5% below ebay price) or sell it in person to a coin shop (receive 20%-35% below ebay price)?

b) sell it as OMP for 20%-60% below the MS69 price or grade it and then sell a MS69 for 100% of the MS69 price or MS67-68 20%-60% below MS69 price.  

For a 69 quality OMP, if you multiply the haircuts in a) and b) you will find that if you sold to coin shop as OMP you will receive 43.5% [(1-0.275)(1-0.40), I used the average yield from selling to coin shop and average discount for OMP] of the MS69 price vs receiving 88% [(1-0.12)] of the MS69 price by selling it on ebay as a MS69 coin.  Even if the rarity of OMP increases dramatically over time, the gap is simply too large to close for the average coin (there may be 2-3% exceptions for OMP rarities or packaging, like the 1985-86 china mint proof set in plastic holder, see ebay item 300784349818, which I keep in OMP and will do so until grading premium exists) and current trend is the gap is getting larger on average (few 2-3% exceptions will occur like 2002 1/10oz gold panda is same price in MS69 as OMP at this moment in time, however in time MS69 will regain superiority).

The trend is towards more graded coins everyday as the collector market grows and more business is done over the internet.  I will do my part to help OMP become extinct by cutting up 50-100 OMP pouches every week and maybe someday the gap is start to close rather than continue to widen, but you may have to wait a long time.  In a long time PVC hardens from its current soft plastic to an abrasive plastic, so non-double sealed coins are toast for sure (burnt toast if you add toning).  Double sealed coins or plastic holder-ed may survive the test of time (assuming the capsule doesn't crack and start shredding plastic chipall over the coin), so at the very least I would grade all your single sealed PVC coins.  

Final point, while culturally you may prefer to own an OMP vs an American Grading Company slab that is perfectly fine as long as you own the coin, but when you are ready to sell or your heirs are ready to sell, put yourself in the buyers shoes and provide a product that they are willing to pay the most for.  By keeping it OMP you may convince yourself that have the future option to grade while vice versa you are stuck with a graded coin, but the risks of holding an OMP outweight the future option value, due to the following reasons, coin damage (handling or PVC degradation), gap between OMP and MS69 continues widens or a large gap will always exist, grading and conservation fees go up, you need to sell fast - no time to conserve/grade and your heirs are not knowledgeable to determine if conserving/grading makes sense.  

Arif

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #54 on: December 16, 2012, 04:13:20 PM »
KeyDatePanda,

Thanks for your excellent analysis of this question. These are some strong points indeed from someone who is very close to the market.

Regards,

Pandamania
« Last Edit: December 17, 2012, 08:33:46 AM by pandamania »

Offline exchange

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #55 on: December 16, 2012, 08:02:35 PM »
I will do my part to help OMP become extinct by cutting up 50-100 OMP pouches every week
Arif

Thank you  :001_smile:

exchange

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #56 on: December 16, 2012, 11:43:26 PM »
  Double sealed coins or plastic holder-ed may survive the test of time (assuming the capsule doesn't crack and start shredding plastic chips all over the coin), so at the very least I would grade all your single sealed PVC coins. 

Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

Offline Honus

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #57 on: December 18, 2012, 01:19:41 AM »
Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

Hi Mirkkanen,

I'm not answering for Arif - he's far more experienced than I - but I wanted to offer some info.  I just got my first coin with PVC residue, a 1990 Panda 1oz Gold Large Date, sealed in OMP.   I bought it from a local shop for $10 over spot, and did so knowing it has PVC residue.  I figured for only $10 over spot, it was a low-risk purchase and worst case I'd have an ounce of gold bullion if I couldn't get the PVC off.   I've been fairly relaxed about how quickly I get my OMP MCC graded, but now that I've seen what PVC can do to a coin, I don't think I'll be as slow to get my coins graded.  It's pretty nasty.  My guess is that the coin I purchased was exposed to high heat and/or humidity, accelerating the leeching of the PVC out of the plastic.  It's not something I've seen often, so it's not like I'm in a panic to get my coins out of their OMP, but now that I've seen it in person I'm rethinking how long I will wait with my OMP coins. 
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline smokymcpot

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #58 on: December 18, 2012, 01:21:35 AM »
Yup, I've seen and read alot of cases of PVC residue for gold pandas in OMP. Silver not so much as they have a capsule.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #59 on: December 18, 2012, 01:44:42 AM »
Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

I was talking about gold pandas that are single sealed should be graded ASAP before PVC or red spot damage is irreversible.  I don't deal much with silver, the only thing to worry about for silver is white spots, while almost all toning NCS can remove for a minimal fee.

Arif