Author Topic: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?  (Read 20516 times)

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Offline pandamania

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Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« on: May 04, 2011, 12:46:10 PM »
The grading and encapsulating of Pandas by NGC and PCGS offers many advantages (as discussed on this forum). So far there seems to be a benefit from a value added standpoint to having these coins graded (and conserved). Consequently, there is a continuous flow of coins through the grading mill.

We must remember that there is a finite number of Pandas minted and a particularly finite number of pre-2000 coins. As more coins are taken out of their original packaging fewer and fewer remain. It is still open to question as to whether Chinese buyers in the long run will gravitate to graded or ungraded coins as a preference. (Few graded coins show up in Ebay China Dealers inventory)

So what happens if the market becomes relatively oversupplied with graded coins and we are left with few in their original environment? Is there a point in time where a supply/demand imbalance actually makes ungraded coins more demanded and valuable?

KonaJim

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2011, 01:01:24 PM »
Anyone who has been a collector of just about anything knows having all the original packaging and presentation has value.  The one caveat with coins is condition is also paramount.  The only diamond I would ever buy would have to have a GIA Report.  Basically, you have these two conflicting criteria.  There are certain coins I won't grade like sets.  I recently bought a very rare Soong Ling Ching Set from Panda America.  It has a beautiful wood presentation box, COA, and all coins are double sealed.  It's a set that probably has more interest to a Chinese buyer.  The other important aspect are the coins being double sealed.  I see only disdavantages to keeping a coin in a plastic pouch without a hard capsule.  Finally, I get more Chinese buyers now asking for graded "69" coins then ever before.  People are very spoiled with these high graded coins.  A "66" grade in a St. Gaudens is a spectacular gem, in a modern Chinese coin it is almost junk.  As the market expands people will realize that all mint state coins are just that "mint state".  I would not pass on a great coin due to a lower than "69" grade.  These are just my peronal thoughts and I'm sure many members will have their own criteria.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2011, 01:28:22 PM »
Soong Ling Ching or Soong Ching Ling? That must be a beautiful set, and I thought I heard of it somewhere, but I think Soong is her last name, and Ching Ling the first/middle.

Offline BChung

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2011, 01:42:57 PM »
Just visited the Guangzhou and Shenzhen coin market lately.... didn't even see any graded coin there. There were only NGC advertisement.

in HK the ones with deeper pockets get it graded.... most like me is simply resisting...the only reason y i want it sent to NGC is for conserving.... i don't need it to be graded... Just wait till the PCGS video find its way to the Chinese, I am pretty sure most of them will have their urge to sent coins for grading kill off in an instant... well I know for sure that video pop my fantasy of sophisticated technology being used to grade my coin, considering the price they are charging.

Well I do see NGC being successful here and that is when the market starts to attract not collectors or dealers but pure speculators who flip them for quick profits. NGC and their grade will be helpful for them. Many chinese collectors still want their collection in original packaging, thats why sometimes COA and Boxes are selling for hundreds of USD.  

I just recently ask the price difference of having a COA for the dragon culture gold coin and not having one and is more 30%.

Not to mention I don't see why so many of you are so optimistic about NGC or other grading service scoring big in CHINA. I mean NGC and all those grading companies fail to even break in to the Euro market or is simply doing badly there, what makes you guys think its any different in China, well I am not aware that NGC have is doing great in similar markets like Japan. IMO NGC 69 or 70 especially for older coins will score u some extra value, but anything below that, I find that my value of coin is destroyed, not to mention if that coin is double sealed. I as a Chinese just don't see why grading is essential especially for 2000 + coins. It only makes sense to me to grade rare, low mintage, and highly sought after coins in China.  But then again my risk is destroying the double sealed package, and not getting 69 or above grade. If thats the case + the ridiculous fees I have to pay for their so called professional service (not to mention no guaranteeing that they will pay for everything to have the package fixed if they screw up  - very very bad) is destroying my coins value.

I got around 140 + Coins, there are around a dozen or more coins I am still trying to get my hands on. After this I will bring them to the Local Agent of NGC and ask them to see how much they are charging. An initial estimate nearly gave me an heart attack...I can buy more than 5 pieces of 1 OZ Gold bullion at a price of USD 1550.


Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2011, 01:51:38 PM »
I think it is best to conserve and grade almost everything.
I am partial to NCS/NGC vice PCGS but that is a totally different debate.
Advantages to Conservation:
1. Liquidity: You can easily sell or trade your coin to another dealer or collector without much question. The coin is graded and authenticated and catalogued already. This takes the guesswork and hesitation out of transactions. Yes it is still someone's opinion so you buy the coin not the grade but at least the grade you get represents at least one professional opinion for certain.
2. Preservation: A coin that has been conserved and properly encapsulated will maintain its appearance and condition for generations to come. Coins left in original holders can deteriorate over time, even in double sealed pouches. Encapsulating coins removes the coins from harmful environmental factors.
3. Durability: Coins in graded holders are less likely to be damaged. Gold is especially soft. One drop on the floor or a hard surface and your 69 becomes an instant 67-68. Coins in soft pouches rub back and forth on the high points, coins in capsules rattle around. An encapsulated coin can be transported and handled without worrying about this.
4. Peace of mind: Until you break your coin out and grade it, for the most part you don't know what you have. A graded coin has been authenticated as genuine and the grade is no longer a mystery.
In the end I think the market will gravitate toward graded coins because of the above factors. Now is the time to locate, grade, and accumulate before this trend hits. The real question is not if this is going to happen but to what extent it will happen and which company NGC or PCGS will be most successful in achieving market penetration in China.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2011, 01:54:49 PM »
It is still open to question as to whether Chinese buyers in the long run will gravitate to graded or ungraded coins as a preference.

It's not open to question in the sense that quality will always be the most important. China is still far behind the West in numismatic sophistication, but the people with big bucks to spend aren't far behind, and they spend their money on the highest quality coins.

So what happens if the market becomes relatively oversupplied with graded coins and we are left with few in their original environment?

High grades are disappearing from the market. The only thing that's going to be oversupplied is the low grades that nobody wants, which keep circulating.

Is there a point in time where a supply/demand imbalance actually makes ungraded coins more demanded and valuable?

Haha, absolutely not. The only coins that will be left in the crappy original packaging are coins that are so damaged you can tell even through the yellowed, dirty, scratched up plastic. Those coins would be so low-value that having the original packaging won't hurt, but it's not even 1 cent worth of plastic. The only thing the packaging is good for is figuring out which mint coins came from. The photographic record can do that, and I photo rare coins before I send them in for grading.

The best original mint packaging is total garbage compared to a finely engineered NGC holder. But, like KonaJim said, sets are interesting when they're in their original boxes. When selling coins, dealers always send the good stuff in for grading, and keep the boxes if they need to stuff them with damaged coins just to help get rid of them.

In short, there is no advantage to original packaging unless the coin is damaged. In the long term, this will only become more true, not less. For now, some coins are nice to keep in the original boxes, but when high grades start adding 1000% to the value, that will come to an end.

There are very few coins left that do not greatly increase in value when they earn a high grade at NGC. Of course, the simple risk of fakes alone will totally wipe out the high quality, ungraded coin market eventually. People just won't buy them on your promise that it's high grade and genuine. Instead, you'll get a low grade price, until your coin becomes "official", with a high grade.

Offline BobW

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2011, 02:13:34 PM »
I think almost all collectors of modern coins regard a "66" grade as junk. That phenomena seems to prevail for just about every country. Try selling a US gold spouse coin with a "66" grade and if you are lucky, you will get melt value for the coin. Rare coins are the exception  --- usually.

Like a "66" St. Gaudens, a great many "66" Chinese coins that old, are spectacular coins also. And they are likely much scarcer.

A check of the PCGS and NGC population reports reveals, with the exception of later date Panda coins, relatively few graded Chinese coins. The same situation holds true on eBay. Perhaps this situation will change. What is surprising to me is the number of sales of expensive Chinese coins that have not been authenticated or are not in the original packaging.


Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2011, 02:14:58 PM »
in HK the ones with deeper pockets get it graded....

They have deeper pockets than everyone else because they're smarter than everyone else. They're buying up the good stuff, leaving all the low grades for everyone else that isn't as sophisticated as they are.

Just wait till the PCGS video find its way to the Chinese, I am pretty sure most of them will have their urge to sent coins for grading kill off in an instant... well I know for sure that video pop my fantasy of sophisticated technology being used to grade my coin, considering the price they are charging.

Well I do see NGC being successful here and that is when the market starts to attract not collectors or dealers but pure speculators who flip them for quick profits. NGC and their grade will be helpful for them.

The money is being concentrated on the rare, high grade coins. Again, that's why the wealthy people with "deep pockets" are the wealthy people with deep pockets. They know and understand quality better than the poorer people who are satisfied with less.

Many chinese collectors still want their collection in original packaging, thats why sometimes COA and Boxes are selling for hundreds of USD.  

I just recently ask the price difference of having a COA for the dragon culture gold coin and not having one and is more 30%.

It's a lot easier to fake packaging than it is to fake a coin. But, if you're stuffing a fake coin into fake packaging, it's much easier to sell a low-quality fake coin. The value of the original mint packaging is going to completely disappear at any moment because it's so easy to fake. Already, major dealers have admitted to faking mint packaging, which helps them sell low quality coins to unsophisticated buyers who value the plastic more than the quality of the coin. You'll see, you'll lose all that "value" you think you have in that plastic. In the future, original packaging will only be a sign a low quality, or fakes.

Not to mention I don't see why so many of you are so optimistic about NGC or other grading service scoring big in CHINA. I mean NGC and all those grading companies fail to even break in to the Euro market or is simply doing badly there, what makes you guys think its any different in China

America invented coin grading. America is the most sophisticated numismatic market in the world. Everyone is behind America. Europeans are much worse than Chinese people in their sophistication for coin collecting. Chinese people know quality, and they value originality.

They still make the mistake of valuing the wrong KIND of originality (worthless, degrading, easy to fake, damaging, plastic!) but at least they have an instinctive sense that originality is important. That means they will learn to be as sophisticated as Americans, and maybe even more, I hope.

I don't think it's wise to make comparisons to Europe though, because they are the worst possible people who collect coins. On the scale of collecting sophistication, it goes like this:

1. America
2. China and the rest of the East
3. The latrine of a nuclear waste dump in Africa
4. The moon
5. Europe

There are a few Europeans that are like Americans in their sophistication, but all the rest are completely retarded. They damage their coins while they dance around and pretend how important they are. Their tenured museum conservators will trash a coin right in front of you, sort of like how this guy handles a priceless artifact of American history (funny!):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqZWsJ2oO_E

It's an early original phonograph record. He's damaging it by rubbing away the recording every time he touches it, even before he finally destroys it completely with his oafish clumsy club hands. Yeah, he's done with that :)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2011, 02:21:41 PM by badon »

Offline ?

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2011, 04:51:18 PM »
sorry to say that out loud here but it is this, what makes you Americans so well appreciated in a world that is full of culture and history ten times bigger than your own:

I don't think it's wise to make comparisons to Europe though, because they are the worst possible people who collect coins. On the scale of collecting sophistication, it goes like this:

1. America
2. China and the rest of the East
3. The latrine of a nuclear waste dump in Africa
4. The moon
5. Europe


Just the 2 cents of an European standing behind the latrine and waiting for the next "6,000 years culture" to take over

greetz anwir

btw Wasn't someone recently saying here: Be polite
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?action=post;quote=11183;topic=2736.0;num_replies=25;sesc=0bf9511b83afabe7baaf198c85d26ab2
or did this only refer to Americans....

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2011, 05:03:37 PM »
Europe damages or destroys most of the coins that pass through it. It's a fact, and most Europeans think you're crazy if you call attention to it. I'm not trying to offend Europeans, but it's still a fact - Europe is where coins are most frequently damaged by unsophisticated collectors - it's a numismatic backwater, and really a tragedy to the history and culture they're entrusted to preserve. Sorry if you're taking a broad generalization personally. It's still a fact.

I'm just pointing out that of the regions that have a lot of avid coin collectors, China is catching up to Americans on their appreciation of quality, and comparing to Europe is wrong because Europeans destroy their coins, while Chinese people don't, even if they're new to collecting.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2011, 05:24:16 PM »
No matter what continent you are from though the simple answer to the topic question is: "no."
In fact to elaborate on Badon's point about these coins being culturally significant, one could argue that not enough are being graded and too many continue to be melted, circulated, and destroyed by unsophisticated hands worldwide.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2011, 05:26:26 PM »
Yes, Panda Halves, thank you. My attempt to make funnies backfired. Thanks for simplifying that for me.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2011, 05:34:01 PM »
... Just wait till the PCGS video find its way ...

On NGC site http://www.ngccoin.com/index.aspx is the grading process video "Your Coin’s Journey Through NGC".

Offline Pandora

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2011, 05:53:23 PM »
Grading gives me peace of mind, ease of sharing. The bragging rights and profits come later...

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2011, 08:39:13 PM »
NGC grading process is just as bad as PCGS. The slab is pressd together. This can not seal the slab completely. There is no reason to have NCS to do conservation, since NGC is putting fingerprint back on the coin. It will take more than 5 years for those fingerprints to show up on the surface inside the slab. Time will tell.  

KonaJim

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #15 on: May 04, 2011, 10:23:50 PM »
I just want to say I have bought many fantastic coins from Germany, and Austria.  I think it is in poor taste to generalize about cultures, peoples, or practices.  My apologies to our European friends for the poor treatment by some of our members.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #16 on: May 04, 2011, 10:36:32 PM »
Bah, yeah, I feel like an idiot. Thanks for stepping in KonaJim. Apologies all around.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #17 on: May 04, 2011, 10:44:54 PM »
It is indeed in poor taste to generalize about cultures and peoples. However, poor coin handling practices shall be pointed out so we may be enlightened and not to repeat them. On behalf of my European friends, I accept Jim's apologies and condamn all mistreatment to our coins.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #18 on: May 05, 2011, 12:41:54 PM »
Feedback on the issue from the US favors the grading process. Response from China has been limited but leans toward original packaging.

Looking at it from the viewpoint of a contrarian would it be wise to keep coins with obvious quality from grading until one has a better feel for the long term preference of Chinese and European buyers.

In other words in the long run (except for perhaps the rarer coins) will grading turn out to be a US phenomenon?


Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #19 on: May 05, 2011, 01:25:43 PM »
In other words in the long run (except for perhaps the rarer coins) will grading turn out to be a US phenomenon?

I don't think so. For example, in the USA even now, grading is really most important for the rarer coins too, so I'm sure the pattern will repeat. The coins that aren't so rare aren't worth counterfeiting, are available in any grade you want, and getting them certified at PCGS or NGC doesn't add much value. That's pretty much the way it is now in the Chinese market too.

So, I think you're right that there's a difference in the importance of grading, based on the value of the coin (rarity). But, I don't think that's just in China, or just in the USA - it's true everywhere. At the very least, it's BULKY to try to transport and store a bunch of common coins that sell just as well in a pile as they do in a fancy holders.

The importance of certification increases greatly with price, and price differences, as well as the risk due to fakes. I think that will always be true, everywhere, at all times.

For example, independent 3rd party verification is not just something that exists in coins - it exists in all markets where there is some complexity involved, and significant amounts of money. In real estate, diamonds, art, antiques of all sorts, etc. The coin market just happens to be one that's close enough to being a commodity market that it's possible for there to exist commodity-style authentication, where every holder uses the same grading system, etc.

In other words, I am absolutely 100% convinced beyond any doubt whatsoever that certification of coins is, or will become, the standard practice forever when dealing with anything of significant value or differences in value. That doesn't mean it will only apply to expensive coins, though.

For example, a recent date modern coin might cost 4 times as much in a 70 grade versus a 69 grade. And, the 69 may cost 4 times as much as a 68 grade. If the coin is only worth $10 in the 68 grade, then that's easily enough to make it profitable for a dealer to send in coins that may earn the 69 or 70 grade. With bulk pricing, it could be profitable to send in the 68 coins too, and just cut out the 67 and lower grade stuff to sell ungraded in their original packaging.

For the 67 and lower grade stuff, ungraded, one without the original packaging may be worth $2, but one with the original packaging may be worth double.

So, in short, I think it's VERY easy to make the argument that certification is the way of the future, regardless of the way things are now. But, it's not so easy to make a similar argument that says it's NOT the way of the future. I tried, a long time ago, and I very quickly became convinced that I was wrong.

It's only a matter of time before every coin of any significant interest will become "certified" in some way. It may by NGC and PCGS that continue to dominate that market, or it may be that competitors gain traction. ANACS seems to be well-liked, even though they're nowhere near as popular, for example. I would be interested to see a Chinese competitor enter the market.

Also, it could be that something entirely new takes over someday. I'm still working on the coin compendium, which will help fulfill the role of authentication at least, and maybe I can figure out a way to make it help fulfill the role of grading too. We shall see.

Wouldn't it be cool to have grades registered for a coin from more than one grader? I think the quality of grading would greatly improve that way.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2011, 02:34:59 PM »
Badon - Truth be known I agree with you, Jim and the consensus about the virtues and value of grading/conserving. However we need to always look at the contrarian viewpoint because it is very often the right call. - Pandamania

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2011, 05:32:50 PM »
Yes, that's true. It's also helpful to revisit these topics from time to time, so we can discuss them to determine if anything has changed since the last time we talked about it. Also, many people reading these forums are new, so the fresh discussion will help them learn about the pros and cons of grading.

Offline Grip

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2011, 06:38:25 PM »
I've noticed that the lower graded rare coins(67-68) sell at a significant discount to the 69's. As a collector, I want a good looking coin and am not interested in paying the huge premium to have the best grade. Many of these coins are seldom offered regardless of grade, so I think collectors can get some real bargain prices by buying the 67-68's. For this reason alone, I think the coin grading is currently helping collectors add undervalued coins to their collection. Any graded coin has established credibility and is worthy of consideration to add to your collection- look at the coin, not the grade. I just had a 2002 1 oz gold Panda grade at 66 because of a small rub spot, it's a beautiful coin! I do agree that set's are a different beast in that they are more appealing in a presentation box than a series of slabs. Graded coins have their place as do raw coins. Have a good mix and enjoy the discovery!!! 

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2011, 07:24:04 PM »
I also want a good looking coin, but I have such picky taste that I notice every little flaw. I can see the difference between 69 and 70 coins in my collection, and I like my 70 coins more. I always get better looking coins on average when I buy 70 coins.

68 coins are sometimes kind of ugly to me, though there are good looking ones out there. I've seen some nice 67 coins too. I would consider owning a 68 for something special, and I do have just one of those in my collection now, only because it's so hard to replace with a 69.

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2011, 03:36:35 PM »
as a European collector I am not offended by badon's, lets call it "reflecting his passion for coin preservation", comparison. I think its good that Americans can triumph in atleast one arena w.r.t to culture  :lol:   , seriously:

I have bought all my chinese coins RAW in Europe and sooner or later I will have them conserved and graded, it will be very interesting to see if they get "bashed" and get low grades... hopefully one or two might get a high grade... but considering the low price I have paid for them I will not jump off a cliff it they dont.... however, I think Badon is right: the top top coins (70s and 69s) will eventually become so expensive that it will only cater to a small part of the growing amount of people who wants to collect chinese coins.

So regardless of grade-score, coins that are graded, conserved and authenticated and in "mint state" between 64-68 will still have many people wanting them, and still be rare and still be expensive. Its simply a matter of mintage and demand. So while high graded coins are rightfully sold for high premiums today, that does not mean one should not buy raw coins at reasonalble prices and grade them, even if they get a 66 grade, they will still be rare...Thats my two cents... :thumbup:




Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2011, 04:12:03 PM »
Yes, I think within another 18 months or so, "investment grade" will mean 68, simply because all the 69's are already off the market. In particular, some of the top investment coins are actually available only in 68 or lower, so it's already starting to happen. The large size coins are the best example.

The 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth clouded claw and super clouded claw is very hard to find in any grade, but 68 and 69 grades are almost EXACTLY the same in rarity. Obviously the 69 is preferred, but if you can find a clouded or super clouded claw in a 68 grade, I think it would have to count as investment grade. Oh, but that's a "large size" coin...

For small size coins, the 1989 Chinese historical figures coins are very difficult to find in 69 grades. 68 is probably investment grade right now. Any series of silver small size coins that mostly went to Europe will be hard to get in 68 grade or higher.

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #26 on: May 07, 2011, 04:28:59 PM »
Badon; you know I have lots of ungraded coins... and I look at them, and some of them I can tell has "markings", like... weak toning along the rim, or "die scratches", thats like small thin short lines gowing outwards from the centre and out towards the rim, my dealer told me it came from the production.

then again, some of the gold coins have obvious "cobber" staines.., but for the most part... When I examine my coins I can not find any hairlines, spots, fingermarks or other residuals, scratches what ever on them... you say that you can tell the difference between a 69 and a 70, right?

There are two sources for downgrading: 1) Production and 2) Handling afterwards, I know you say that Europeans touch their coins and play poker with them, use them under tables to straighten them up and so on... but seriously: some of the coins that were taken in by european dealers must have been from "good strikes" too, right? thus eliminating source no. 1. And if the buyer has not played around with the coin, there must be some chance that some of the coins will get a 68 or 69 grade?? I keep looking at them and honestly, 6-7 out of 10 seem like they have not been subject to source no. 2 (handling).

if grading-services are to be considered legit, "normal" people must be able to look at a 67 grade , and a 70 grade, of the same coin, and think "wow", that 70 is a beauty, and "yes - I can tell why that coin got a 67"... since I dont own any graded coins, and it is impossible to go to a coin shop in Norway and compare two equal coins with different grades, the whole grading thing is a mystery to me... can someone PLEASE post a photo of a 67 coin and 70 or 69 coin (same coin) and rationalize the grading deviation??

 :confused1: :crying: :001_rolleyes:

like this one... I cant find anything wrong with this coin... I think maybe Europeans need to be exposed to more graded coins so they can see the difference before they respect and understand the whole concept... in chinese coins that is impossible since there are no places to go and really see for your self the difference between a 69 and a 67...

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #27 on: May 07, 2011, 04:46:55 PM »
The hairlines can be difficult to see. You can't use fluorescent lighting. The hairlines show up best in sunlight, or with clear (not white) incandescent light bulbs without a shade. When you turn the coin, you will see "streaks". When you look closely with a loupe, the "streaks" will be distinguishable as very fine parallel scratches. It can be very difficult to see hairline scratches, even for an expert. Sometimes when they're very hard to see, the graders will give the coin a 69 grade.

It's hard to find a flaw until you get to 67 grades. With a 67 grade, you should be able to easily find a scratch or other mark on the coin somewhere. The problem with grading these coins is that they're usually 64 or better. At that grade level, you can't see flaws through the plastic very easily. It REQUIRES handling outside the protective holder to find the flaws.

So, it's best to leave high-end grading to the experts, since they're also expert at handling the coins without damaging them. I have found a few coins from Europe that are not damaged, so it would not surprise me if there are some that are in good condition. I think it's about 1/3 or 1/2 that might get a good 68 or 69 grade at NGC.

Keep in mind that even of coins that have NOT been handled, many do not get the precious 69 grade. I'm starting to suspect that you have a good eye for quality, DiggingNorway. That may mean that you are selecting better-looking coins from the inventories of dealers that you buy from.

Yes, I can tell the difference between a 69 and 70 coin, but not from photos. I do NOT claim to be able to grade them, but with two coins side by side, I can find the differences, at the very least. I can usually tell when a coin is under graded or over graded too.

I have had a career in manufacturing, and many of the things I have dealt with required perfect mirror finishes. The slightest hairline scratch would cause a disaster, so the metal parts required thorough inspection for flaws. That gives me an advantage in both seeing flaws, and knowing exactly what they are.

For example, those radiating short lines that come from the center and go out to the edge are not actually "scratches". They're die wear, and/or grinding/polishing marks. Dies that are new usually do not have them as much as dies that are older. They do not count for grading the coin, since they are not damage to the coin. Sometimes it can be quite attractive. It's what gives American Morgan dollars their "cartwheel" luster:



On the Morgan dollars the marks are very small, and blend together to form a nice reflective pattern.

Offline DiggingNorway

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #28 on: May 07, 2011, 04:59:32 PM »
"Keep in mind that even of coins that have NOT been handled, many do not get the precious 69 grade. I'm starting to suspect that you have a good eye for quality, DiggingNorway. That may mean that you are selecting better-looking coins from the inventories of dealers that you buy from. "

thanks for the compliment and your answer badon, but its not entirely deserved as my strategy is to simply to buy every coin I can get my hands on as long as the price is metal-spot price, which 80% of my coins are purchased at... sometimes (after a few beers) I make some "stupid buys", like paying 70-80 USD for a raw historical, traditional or olympics (or ANY coin really), but thats just a result of pure severe draw-back symptoms after not having been able to score a bargain for a month or so...

i think (after all my rabbling) the main point for European collectors to appriciate and start to grade their coins to a higher extent must be that more graded coins must come to market so people can see the difference and that the third-party service suppliers retain their credibility and provide consistent grades. As for original packaging my approach is to keep them, and if/when I send in for grading I will keep the packaging (box, coa) and keep them separate from the slab and sell them combined.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #29 on: November 26, 2011, 01:56:42 PM »
It`s time to update the original question asked in this topic. This also involves a number of previous CCF topics.

I believe that it is fair to say that Ebay US is the predominant market maker in Chinese Pandas. Given this and presuming that most Panda coins were minted for export and currently reside outside China (mostly in the US):

Panda Whereabouts

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=1421.0

then the US must be the presumed leader with regard to the Panda and grading market. These topics also enter the picture:

Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded? (This topic):

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2758.0

Graded Coins in China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=1262.0

China Dealer Coin Supply:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2176.0

This brief analysis is not intended to be a thorough research of the issues but is a quick thumbnail update of a number of previously posed questions. Any conclusions drawn from it must be viewed with a cautionary eye.

Currently on Ebay US there are about 3800 listings under the search title of "panda" in the "coins and paper money" category. We can subtract about 400 items that are not actually coins/medals i.e. COA`s, boxes, 1 gram items, replicas, art rounds etc., leaving us with approximately 3400 coins/medals.
By plugging in MS and PF designations (graded coins of which there are about 1700) we derive that 50% of the pandas appearing on Ebay US are graded. Over the past year, two years and particularly 3 years this figure has grown continually and significantly (there were few graded pandas 4-5 years ago). The predominant Ebay US dealers located in China currently are Xuhong and Naomi01225. Xuhong has about 325 pandas listed (net of non coin items and Naomi01225 has about 85. Xu`s inventory contains only 9% graded coins and Naomi has none, or a combined 7+% in inventory for Chinese dealers. If we can assume that most (if not all) of Chinese dealer`s inventory on Ebay US was acquired within China then what do the comparative percentages of 50 vs 7 mean?

Are most quality coins in the US being processed through NGC/PCGS and quickly brought to market because of the value differential? Do US panda owners presumed preference for graded coins translate into where the worldwide market is heading? Why are there only 7% graded coins in China dealers` inventory and will this increase? How many quality non graded pandas in their original packaging still exist outside China and how will this affect their future prices?

When scrolling through the new Panda listings on Ebay US the number of graded coins continue to increase and the number of ungraded coins continues to decrease (particularly pre 2000 coins) In general, the premium for graded coins over ungraded coins in OMP appears to be narrowing.

Given the changes which have occurred and the fact that these questions continue to be debated on CCF this is where we currently stand on the basic questions of "are too many pandas being graded' and "how well received are graded coins in China" All must draw their own conclusions and from the concensus the future of the market will evolve.







Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #30 on: November 26, 2011, 02:30:40 PM »
Great info - thanks for researching and analyzing that for us!

Offline makav31i

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #31 on: November 27, 2011, 05:58:25 AM »
This is my humble take on why most Chinese people will not grade their coin...

The cost of grading, the risk involve shipping overseas to the US especially for high priced coin. For the cost of grading, most would rather save that additional money and buy more coins as compared to having a few graded coin. What I feel is most Chinese think it is better to have more coins with different years due to the availability of funds. Another thing is with regards to the shipping risk to overseas like the US as it is illegal for the Chinese to shipped gold and silver out of the country just to get the coin graded and shipped the coin back to China. The anxiety and waiting time and shipping to and fro the grading firm is too much for some people who only got limited funds or just start coin collecting as if their coins are lost when sending for grading, will make them hate grading coins even more. I strongly feel most just don't want to go through the hassle of grading the coins..

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #32 on: November 27, 2011, 12:16:23 PM »
Thanks for your fine follow-up analysis, pandamania.  It reaffirmed makav31i's humble take and strong feeling.  Welcome to the forum, makav31i, BTW. The answers to the original question posted remain varied and in most cases equally valid.  Each to our own...

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #33 on: November 27, 2011, 04:07:23 PM »
Welcome to the forum makav31i!

Offline makav31i

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #34 on: November 28, 2011, 02:46:32 AM »
Thank you all..I am a long time lurker in the forum..Hope to learn more from all you experts...

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #35 on: November 28, 2011, 04:42:13 AM »
Welcome makav31i

Sorry but I have to disagree. I believe more and more Chinese people will submit coins to NGC.

There is a company in Guang Zhou who can help the collector to submit coins to NCS/NGC for grading. There is also a good NGC authorized coin dealer in China.

http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?NewsletterNewsArticleID=656
http://www.gbngc.com/

To a lesser extent, there is also an NGC authorized dealer in Singapore, and many of Singaporean coin collector (mainly Chinese) also collect China coins.


Offline makav31i

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #36 on: November 28, 2011, 05:18:24 AM »
Hi Low...Thank you for your opinion and what I mention is just my own personal take which might be wrong...I am from Singapore and I think you are refering to Mavin International which is the NGC authorized retailer in Singapore..I know most of the lao jiao(old bird)  coin collectors collect the old imperial china coins and banknotes and not many collect modern china coin...I don't really know if there is much interest in China coin collecting in Singapore as the forum that I am a member of which most Singaporeans are there,rarely talk about China modern coins as most are bullion stackers...Finding a shop that sell silver is already so difficult in Singapore much less modern Chinese coins...Even looking at ebay Singapore,not many China coin seller and buyer and things just get relisted over and over again...I really wish,pray and hope that the Chinese coin market would take off in Singapore...I am looking forward to the Singapore International coin fair next year hosted by Panda America to see how the responds are like and maybe get to meet other coin collectors...

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #37 on: November 28, 2011, 09:57:29 AM »
This is an interesting reference point and comparison:

If we use the same methodology and insert "eagle" into "coins and paper money" on Ebay US and presume there are roughly the same percentage on non modern eagle items there are currently about 23,500 listings of which close to 33% are graded. It would make sense that a higher percentage of pandas get graded simply because of the fake issue.

We are very aware of the comparative scarcity of pandas vs eagles and the Ebay market confirms this with about 7 eagles listed for every panda.

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #38 on: November 28, 2011, 09:45:33 PM »
Hi makav31i,

Nice to hear you are from Singapore.

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #39 on: November 28, 2011, 09:48:46 PM »
We are very aware of the comparative scarcity of pandas vs eagles and the Ebay market confirms this with about 7 eagles listed for every panda.

You can find some nicely graded coins at www.taobao.com but the site is slow loading as with many other Chinese website.

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #40 on: November 28, 2011, 09:54:14 PM »

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #41 on: November 28, 2011, 11:23:02 PM »
OMP vs Slab, many of the arguments are similar to what's being said here in CCF.  There is a strong tone of xenophobia and conspiracy, however.  I don't blame them, the whole idea of sending Chinese coins produced in China to America to be authenticated and graded is embarrassing to the average Chinese.

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #42 on: November 28, 2011, 11:42:36 PM »
Actually the same argument also happens in Australia. It just seems that after 4 years (maybe way longer) of heated debate, PCGS has gained some recognition.

Talking about OMP, here is some interesting comment from Mr.Ge http://www.jbtz.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15819

至于要不要剪去原塑封袋,还有疑问吗?

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #43 on: November 28, 2011, 11:49:51 PM »
Some interesting comment on graded coins.

http://www.jibi.net/News/qbqbcx/8_47_52_812.html

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #44 on: November 29, 2011, 01:31:17 AM »

Talking about OMP, here is some interesting comment from Mr.Ge http://www.jbtz.com/bbs/viewthread.php?tid=15819

至于要不要剪去原塑封袋,还有疑问吗?

Low, thanks for the article.

Here is a rough translation of the post:

Why do plastic sealed silver coins still develop WSOD (white fog)? (GÉZHǓKĀNG)

   Those who collect silver coinage often times will have this sort of experience, clearly with plastic sealed silver coins, over time they tend to naturally develop a layer of WSOD, why is this?
   Originally, it was the OMP bags that are the as the prime culprits! Because when the coins were originally sealed, they used a blast of compressed air into the plastic bag, and after placing ten coins into the plastic a hot press seals them. If you don't open this plastic seal, it is hopeless.
It is a shame that these beautiful coins are forever being subjected to the torment of oily residue, and high acidiity of compressed air. However, once you discover the WSOD has developed on your coins it is too late to rectify. Opening the original seal and washing with a silver rinse has no hope of eliminating WSOD, leaving you with nothing but regret remaining!
   I undertook an experiment in 1993, by taking two 1983 copper pandas that I purchased for 10 Yuan; one I cut open the original plastic, but left it in the original plastic capsule, the other 1983 copper panda I left in the OMP sealed, and I placed the two of them together, slowly over a four year period, the coin that I left in OMP started to turn black to the point that it was no longer bright and shiny, however the one that I had cut from the original package was still as good as new, In 1997 I sold the one that I had cut out for 500 yuan, however the one that was left in the OMP sold for just 250 Yuan.  I think that any numismatists coming to visit my small shop during these years would have understood this matter.
   With the exception of a few very polluted areas the air in our natural living environment is typically quite clean, gold and silver coins will not be adversely affected by moving around in the air of a clean environment. However, when you take gold and silver coins and you mix them with compressed air from an air compressor and seal them together, after a while those coins will cause you to suffer!
As to whether or not you should cut open the OMP or not, is this even debatable anymore?

PH

low

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2011, 01:55:20 AM »
Many thanks Panda Halves.

That is very nice translation.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #46 on: November 29, 2011, 02:02:46 AM »
Thanks very much for the translation.

Has Mr. Ge read my info about the cause of WSOD? He is right that the plastic is damaging, but it's not compressed air that causes it. The plastic does not cause WSOD, although it does cause other problems. He's also right about oily residues, both from the plastic and from the compressed air, if the air compressor allows oil into the air stream - many do.

The oil from the air stream is possibly a sulfurized machine oil, although regular oils often contain sulfur too - the sulfur in the oil reacts with the copper to produce a black color. Opening the plastic bag will not stop this reaction, but it could start a WSOD reaction (on silver only).

The oil from the plastic is the plasticizer, and it contains chlorine that will eventually corrode nearly all metals, especially if humid air is available.

Some of the residues I have seen on coins look a lot like a metalworking facility's normal sulfurized cutting oil. It could get onto the coins a variety of ways. Also, hydraulic oil may be getting on the coins, although that usually contains less sulfur because it is known to damage metal components, especially brass and bronze (copper) fittings on the hydraulic equipment.

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #47 on: December 15, 2012, 10:40:28 AM »
Since this is a sister topic to Graded Coins in China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2758.0

I`ll reintroduce this question as well:

Are too many Pandas Being Graded?

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #48 on: December 15, 2012, 11:45:42 AM »
Since this is a sister topic to Graded Coins in China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2758.0

I`ll reintroduce this question as well:

Are too many Pandas Being Graded?

I don't think so. It is likely that the more prevalent graded coins become the more demand for them increases. As they become more acceptable they become more popular and also more collectible. Dealers don't market what they don't have in stock and marketing matters.
One need only look at the marketing of 1/10 gold panda sets to understand this trend.
The trend is your friend.  N38

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #49 on: December 15, 2012, 12:02:33 PM »
Panda Halves,

Currently almost 50% of the silver pandas listed on eBay are graded by NGC (32.3%) and PCGS (13.4%) and pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?

Regards,

Pandamania

Offline smokymcpot

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #50 on: December 16, 2012, 12:46:02 PM »
In my collection, it's mostly OMP's and I only have 1 or 2 slabbed pandas. I don't know why, I have a thing for OMP's compared to slabbed pandas although I know slabbed pandas are better in terms of conserving and the value of the coin in the future.

I'm a chinese and from Malaysia, maybe it's a chinese thing, I don't know.... :)

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #51 on: December 16, 2012, 01:07:41 PM »
Panda Halves,

Currently almost 50% of the silver pandas listed on eBay are graded by NGC (32.3%) and PCGS (13.4%) and pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?
I would think so. When quality OMP becomes rarer, the price should reflect its rarity more appropriately, thus its demand. Remember, OMP coins can always be graded later, a graded coin can always be regraded with the same or different grader, but a graded coin can never go back to be OMP.

As a collector, I'm with smokymcpot. After I sell my coins, which could be never, I may change my mind.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #52 on: December 16, 2012, 01:15:00 PM »
I don't think so. It is likely that the more prevalent graded coins become the more demand for them increases. As they become more acceptable they become more popular and also more collectible. Dealers don't market what they don't have in stock and marketing matters.
One need only look at the marketing of 1/10 gold panda sets to understand this trend.
The trend is your friend.  N38
The trend could be your friend, or your enemy. There are at least 2 sides to a coin, or a stock, or a story, or a story about a stock. I have a tendency to go against the trend, and that's why I tend to become more a loser than not :(

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #53 on: December 16, 2012, 02:41:06 PM »
... pre 2001 coins are becoming increasingly hard to find in OMP condition. As I recall when I started this topic 25% or fewer of the coins listed were graded. If this trend continues how will the demand and consequent prices for OMP coins be affected?

The reason fewer valuable OMP coins are available on ebay and other online venues is dealers are SLOWLY (most dealers are older and tend to adapt to change slowly, takes years for them to change their attitudes, not months as it should) learning that graded coins sell for strong premium to OMP because authenticity and quality risk is removed for the buyer siting at their computer.  

98%+ what I buy every week is OMP, that is what is sold dealer to dealer and at coin shows because a trusted relationship exists between counterparties or at coin shows you can see before you buy, however when that relationship doesn't exist then it is in the best interest of both parties to deal in graded coins to avoid misunderstandings.  

Here are the questions you must ask yourself today: When you are ready to sell your "69 quality" OMP coins in the future will you:

a) do it over the internet (receive 12%-19.5% below ebay price) or sell it in person to a coin shop (receive 20%-35% below ebay price)?

b) sell it as OMP for 20%-60% below the MS69 price or grade it and then sell a MS69 for 100% of the MS69 price or MS67-68 20%-60% below MS69 price.  

For a 69 quality OMP, if you multiply the haircuts in a) and b) you will find that if you sold to coin shop as OMP you will receive 43.5% [(1-0.275)(1-0.40), I used the average yield from selling to coin shop and average discount for OMP] of the MS69 price vs receiving 88% [(1-0.12)] of the MS69 price by selling it on ebay as a MS69 coin.  Even if the rarity of OMP increases dramatically over time, the gap is simply too large to close for the average coin (there may be 2-3% exceptions for OMP rarities or packaging, like the 1985-86 china mint proof set in plastic holder, see ebay item 300784349818, which I keep in OMP and will do so until grading premium exists) and current trend is the gap is getting larger on average (few 2-3% exceptions will occur like 2002 1/10oz gold panda is same price in MS69 as OMP at this moment in time, however in time MS69 will regain superiority).

The trend is towards more graded coins everyday as the collector market grows and more business is done over the internet.  I will do my part to help OMP become extinct by cutting up 50-100 OMP pouches every week and maybe someday the gap is start to close rather than continue to widen, but you may have to wait a long time.  In a long time PVC hardens from its current soft plastic to an abrasive plastic, so non-double sealed coins are toast for sure (burnt toast if you add toning).  Double sealed coins or plastic holder-ed may survive the test of time (assuming the capsule doesn't crack and start shredding plastic chipall over the coin), so at the very least I would grade all your single sealed PVC coins.  

Final point, while culturally you may prefer to own an OMP vs an American Grading Company slab that is perfectly fine as long as you own the coin, but when you are ready to sell or your heirs are ready to sell, put yourself in the buyers shoes and provide a product that they are willing to pay the most for.  By keeping it OMP you may convince yourself that have the future option to grade while vice versa you are stuck with a graded coin, but the risks of holding an OMP outweight the future option value, due to the following reasons, coin damage (handling or PVC degradation), gap between OMP and MS69 continues widens or a large gap will always exist, grading and conservation fees go up, you need to sell fast - no time to conserve/grade and your heirs are not knowledgeable to determine if conserving/grading makes sense.  

Arif

Offline pandamania

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #54 on: December 16, 2012, 04:13:20 PM »
KeyDatePanda,

Thanks for your excellent analysis of this question. These are some strong points indeed from someone who is very close to the market.

Regards,

Pandamania
« Last Edit: December 17, 2012, 08:33:46 AM by pandamania »

Offline exchange

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #55 on: December 16, 2012, 08:02:35 PM »
I will do my part to help OMP become extinct by cutting up 50-100 OMP pouches every week
Arif

Thank you  :001_smile:

exchange

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #56 on: December 16, 2012, 11:43:26 PM »
  Double sealed coins or plastic holder-ed may survive the test of time (assuming the capsule doesn't crack and start shredding plastic chips all over the coin), so at the very least I would grade all your single sealed PVC coins. 

Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

Offline Honus

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #57 on: December 18, 2012, 01:19:41 AM »
Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

Hi Mirkkanen,

I'm not answering for Arif - he's far more experienced than I - but I wanted to offer some info.  I just got my first coin with PVC residue, a 1990 Panda 1oz Gold Large Date, sealed in OMP.   I bought it from a local shop for $10 over spot, and did so knowing it has PVC residue.  I figured for only $10 over spot, it was a low-risk purchase and worst case I'd have an ounce of gold bullion if I couldn't get the PVC off.   I've been fairly relaxed about how quickly I get my OMP MCC graded, but now that I've seen what PVC can do to a coin, I don't think I'll be as slow to get my coins graded.  It's pretty nasty.  My guess is that the coin I purchased was exposed to high heat and/or humidity, accelerating the leeching of the PVC out of the plastic.  It's not something I've seen often, so it's not like I'm in a panic to get my coins out of their OMP, but now that I've seen it in person I'm rethinking how long I will wait with my OMP coins. 
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline smokymcpot

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #58 on: December 18, 2012, 01:21:35 AM »
Yup, I've seen and read alot of cases of PVC residue for gold pandas in OMP. Silver not so much as they have a capsule.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #59 on: December 18, 2012, 01:44:42 AM »
Arif,
I assume you are talking about silver coins when you mention selling all single-sealed PVC coins. How do you feel about gold pandas in OMP? How do you feel they will fare over time in their single seals?

I was talking about gold pandas that are single sealed should be graded ASAP before PVC or red spot damage is irreversible.  I don't deal much with silver, the only thing to worry about for silver is white spots, while almost all toning NCS can remove for a minimal fee.

Arif

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #60 on: December 18, 2012, 12:03:31 PM »
When quality OMP becomes rarer, the price should reflect its rarity more appropriately, thus its demand. Remember, OMP coins can always be graded later, a graded coin can always be regraded with the same or different grader, but a graded coin can never go back to be OMP.

Not so; a coin can be resealed, possibly even by one of the official mints in China. If OMPs go up in value I expect the supply will expand, too.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline Obsidian

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #61 on: December 18, 2012, 12:48:09 PM »
Anyone reading this thread should also read this from a chinese expert Huang Ruiyong and translated by fwang2450
 
The translation and pictures are now available at:

http://modern-chinese-numismatic-info.blogspot.com/2012/12/on-omp-and-coas-of-precious-metal.html

This is a good addition to the discussion right now on OMP.

Like he says, condition of the COIN is what will matter most in the end.  Coins should be kept in whatever medium protects them the best. Whether it be OMP, graded, other holders, coin books, etc.  You decide.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2012, 12:51:50 PM by Obsidian »

Offline Honus

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #62 on: December 18, 2012, 12:57:22 PM »
Anyone reading this thread should also read this from a chinese expert Huang Ruiyong and translated by fwang2450
 
Like he says, condition of the COIN is what will matter most in the end.  Coins should be kept in whatever medium protects them the best. Whether it be OMP, graded, other holders, coin books, etc.  You decide.

I completely agree, Obsidian.   At the end of the day, preservation of the coin will be of the utmost importance.    Coins in plastic holders have different risk than other collectibles...the cardboard box from a vintage Corgi car can't damage the car inside...the materials that comprise an old tweed case can't damage the vintage Fender Stratocaster inside.  But the PVC in the plastic holders from many years of MCC coins CAN damage the coin - it's the rare case where the original packaging can, and often does, negatively affect the contents if the packaging goes bad.
Eric Liquori
Anvil Fine Wares
www.anvilfinewares.com

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #63 on: December 18, 2012, 12:59:41 PM »
If OMPs go up in value I expect the supply will expand, too.

"...will expand, too" with 68 and 67 quality coins in the resealed packaging, rather than 69 quality coins that we currently find in the US. After some point (years or decades depends on how fast original owners sell) most 69 quality gold pandas will be in slabs and the preception will be the OMP is either resealed with inferior coins or the OMP original seal has an inferior coin with irreversible PVC or toning damage, either way OMP will be less desirable than 69 slab to the knowledgeable collector in my opinion based on what I know today and see in the marketplace with advanced investors.  Exceptions will occur, like the 1985 or 1986 Mint Proof set with Fen coins, but they will be far and few in between.

So far I have only seen Shanghai Mint resealed packaging, no Shenyang or Shenzhen yet, but I will be on the look out during my January trip to China.

Arif

Offline Birdman

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #64 on: December 18, 2012, 01:52:23 PM »
... but I will be on the look out during my January trip to China.

Arif

Nice.  I'm envious.  Will this be strictly business, or will you be able to weave some vacation into it?

Birdman

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #65 on: December 18, 2012, 02:03:02 PM »
Only 1-2 days in the coin market.  I teach a class on international real estate for US MBA students, visiting Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau - it is focused on how US private equity can make money in China.  The short answer is, it is very hard.

Keep an eye on Ticker CHIQ - China Consumer ETF, it is pointing to increased discretionary spending by the Chinese consumer which may bode well for coin market if gold can get out of this trading range. 

Arif

Offline Jay

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #66 on: December 19, 2012, 05:05:26 PM »
How about private equity investment in Chinese gold coins  ;)

Jay

Offline Lightsview

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #67 on: December 25, 2012, 05:58:26 AM »

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #68 on: December 28, 2012, 04:53:29 AM »
This is good if your your pandas should be graded with PCGS and NGC . Because of this your product is properly checked and quality of the product also showed.

Offline Silver bullion boy

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #69 on: July 21, 2013, 09:34:04 AM »
This has been a great thread. I would love to send my coins over to the States, I live in the UK. But all the costs involved are stopping me from doing so, and I'm paranoid just in case they go missing in transit! I have noticed there is hardly any graded Pandas over here, just in raw, omp. This is probably the reason behind it!


Offline james007

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #70 on: July 21, 2013, 09:57:07 AM »
Wow! Never thought about it! Sell a stack of graded pandas to England! I never thought about it! I always thought if I wanted some extra value I would have to go to China to sell. But now that I know that the UK wants graded pandas and think about VAT or loss of package. Awesome second prospect! You guys make the world smaller every day. Thank you for the posts!!

Offline Birdman

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #71 on: February 27, 2014, 05:20:43 PM »
I was talking about gold pandas that are single sealed should be graded ASAP before PVC or red spot damage is irreversible. 

I received an OMP gold panda in the mail today.  After seeing it, I did something I never did before.  I immediately cut it out of the OMP and put in in an inert flip.  The reason I did so is that it was clear that the packaging was starting to degrade and affect the surface of the coin.  This was a 1990 coin. 

I am definitely noticing this issue more than I did several years ago.  Part of it is that I am now more knowledgeable and aware of the issue, but I have to wonder whether the the last several years has given those older OMP that much more time to reach the age at which degradation accelerates, such that the issue is more prevalent than it was several years ago.

I will definitely send this coin through NCS.  I worry, however, whether the residue on this coin might have already caused permanent damage.

Offline Agpanda

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #72 on: December 17, 2017, 01:32:47 PM »
How does OMP stands against graded in China today?
It´s interesting to read this old treads and see if things changed

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #73 on: December 17, 2017, 05:11:41 PM »
How does OMP stands against graded in China today?
It´s interesting to read this old treads and see if things changed

IMO, not too much, very few dates have graded panda more than 10% of the known mintage, especially gold panda, less than 5% for common dates. NGC went to China in 2010.

Offline bender9876

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #74 on: December 17, 2017, 06:32:20 PM »
NGC are better than PCGS for pandas

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #75 on: December 17, 2017, 11:41:28 PM »
The decision to grade a coin is simple, if the incremental value of the coin increase by a multiple of the grading cost then one should grade the coins.  Demand is what determines if and when coins should be graded. 

For example, 1995 1/2 omp, ms68, ms69 all sell for the same price, in this case I no longer grade this coin.  While 1990 1oz proof in omp or ms68 is worth $100 over melt, while PF69 is worth $400 over melt, in this case $15 grading fee is worth it, you are getting 20 to 1 for simply waiting 1 month for NGC to process your lottery ticket. 

There is another approach to consider, how to preserve your coins for the future.  My ordering is NGC slab the best option, followed by non-pvc flip, followed by tight capsule, followed by OMP and finally the worst option PCGS slab.  If you plan to hold a coin for just a few months or a year, this consideration is less important, but if you plan to hold 10-30 years, this will be can important consideration.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #76 on: December 18, 2017, 12:20:07 AM »
For a long time Europe did not seem to mind buying and selling in OMP, in which case it was fine for you to keep in OMP. I can see more are getting their coins graded now but they may still be in the minority just like in China.

The scenario described by KD1/2P is the complexity that obtains for many collectors in America. We like to know what we are buying!

I buy mainly graded coins now. I have, however, bought OMPs rarely but from KNOWN sellers, people who have with 100% accuracy sold me OMP coin grades I wanted (69’s). GoldenLord even exceeded his remit once by selling me a 1995 OMP that graded MS70!!!!

If in the community everyone sells as OMP then that is probably alright but when the incidence of grading increases in the community, you should consider only buying OMPs from known reliable sellers. If possible state your expectations up front!
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline wg

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #77 on: December 18, 2017, 02:21:20 AM »


Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #79 on: December 18, 2017, 10:42:45 PM »
Look this fine PR70 PCGS slab, white spots already forming.   Of course if you are the type to buy the slab and don't care about the coin this 1 of 1000 coin should be an integral part of your collection. 

Offline wg

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #80 on: December 22, 2017, 06:06:43 AM »
arif

sino - france d.

1/4 oz au ... 3k
1 oz ag ... 10k

 pf 70

white spots free :001_rolleyes:

less 90 euro