Author Topic: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?  (Read 17501 times)

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Offline pandamania

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Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« on: May 04, 2011, 12:46:10 PM »
The grading and encapsulating of Pandas by NGC and PCGS offers many advantages (as discussed on this forum). So far there seems to be a benefit from a value added standpoint to having these coins graded (and conserved). Consequently, there is a continuous flow of coins through the grading mill.

We must remember that there is a finite number of Pandas minted and a particularly finite number of pre-2000 coins. As more coins are taken out of their original packaging fewer and fewer remain. It is still open to question as to whether Chinese buyers in the long run will gravitate to graded or ungraded coins as a preference. (Few graded coins show up in Ebay China Dealers inventory)

So what happens if the market becomes relatively oversupplied with graded coins and we are left with few in their original environment? Is there a point in time where a supply/demand imbalance actually makes ungraded coins more demanded and valuable?

KonaJim

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2011, 01:01:24 PM »
Anyone who has been a collector of just about anything knows having all the original packaging and presentation has value.  The one caveat with coins is condition is also paramount.  The only diamond I would ever buy would have to have a GIA Report.  Basically, you have these two conflicting criteria.  There are certain coins I won't grade like sets.  I recently bought a very rare Soong Ling Ching Set from Panda America.  It has a beautiful wood presentation box, COA, and all coins are double sealed.  It's a set that probably has more interest to a Chinese buyer.  The other important aspect are the coins being double sealed.  I see only disdavantages to keeping a coin in a plastic pouch without a hard capsule.  Finally, I get more Chinese buyers now asking for graded "69" coins then ever before.  People are very spoiled with these high graded coins.  A "66" grade in a St. Gaudens is a spectacular gem, in a modern Chinese coin it is almost junk.  As the market expands people will realize that all mint state coins are just that "mint state".  I would not pass on a great coin due to a lower than "69" grade.  These are just my peronal thoughts and I'm sure many members will have their own criteria.

Offline dobedo

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #2 on: May 04, 2011, 01:28:22 PM »
Soong Ling Ching or Soong Ching Ling? That must be a beautiful set, and I thought I heard of it somewhere, but I think Soong is her last name, and Ching Ling the first/middle.

Offline BChung

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #3 on: May 04, 2011, 01:42:57 PM »
Just visited the Guangzhou and Shenzhen coin market lately.... didn't even see any graded coin there. There were only NGC advertisement.

in HK the ones with deeper pockets get it graded.... most like me is simply resisting...the only reason y i want it sent to NGC is for conserving.... i don't need it to be graded... Just wait till the PCGS video find its way to the Chinese, I am pretty sure most of them will have their urge to sent coins for grading kill off in an instant... well I know for sure that video pop my fantasy of sophisticated technology being used to grade my coin, considering the price they are charging.

Well I do see NGC being successful here and that is when the market starts to attract not collectors or dealers but pure speculators who flip them for quick profits. NGC and their grade will be helpful for them. Many chinese collectors still want their collection in original packaging, thats why sometimes COA and Boxes are selling for hundreds of USD.  

I just recently ask the price difference of having a COA for the dragon culture gold coin and not having one and is more 30%.

Not to mention I don't see why so many of you are so optimistic about NGC or other grading service scoring big in CHINA. I mean NGC and all those grading companies fail to even break in to the Euro market or is simply doing badly there, what makes you guys think its any different in China, well I am not aware that NGC have is doing great in similar markets like Japan. IMO NGC 69 or 70 especially for older coins will score u some extra value, but anything below that, I find that my value of coin is destroyed, not to mention if that coin is double sealed. I as a Chinese just don't see why grading is essential especially for 2000 + coins. It only makes sense to me to grade rare, low mintage, and highly sought after coins in China.  But then again my risk is destroying the double sealed package, and not getting 69 or above grade. If thats the case + the ridiculous fees I have to pay for their so called professional service (not to mention no guaranteeing that they will pay for everything to have the package fixed if they screw up  - very very bad) is destroying my coins value.

I got around 140 + Coins, there are around a dozen or more coins I am still trying to get my hands on. After this I will bring them to the Local Agent of NGC and ask them to see how much they are charging. An initial estimate nearly gave me an heart attack...I can buy more than 5 pieces of 1 OZ Gold bullion at a price of USD 1550.


Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #4 on: May 04, 2011, 01:51:38 PM »
I think it is best to conserve and grade almost everything.
I am partial to NCS/NGC vice PCGS but that is a totally different debate.
Advantages to Conservation:
1. Liquidity: You can easily sell or trade your coin to another dealer or collector without much question. The coin is graded and authenticated and catalogued already. This takes the guesswork and hesitation out of transactions. Yes it is still someone's opinion so you buy the coin not the grade but at least the grade you get represents at least one professional opinion for certain.
2. Preservation: A coin that has been conserved and properly encapsulated will maintain its appearance and condition for generations to come. Coins left in original holders can deteriorate over time, even in double sealed pouches. Encapsulating coins removes the coins from harmful environmental factors.
3. Durability: Coins in graded holders are less likely to be damaged. Gold is especially soft. One drop on the floor or a hard surface and your 69 becomes an instant 67-68. Coins in soft pouches rub back and forth on the high points, coins in capsules rattle around. An encapsulated coin can be transported and handled without worrying about this.
4. Peace of mind: Until you break your coin out and grade it, for the most part you don't know what you have. A graded coin has been authenticated as genuine and the grade is no longer a mystery.
In the end I think the market will gravitate toward graded coins because of the above factors. Now is the time to locate, grade, and accumulate before this trend hits. The real question is not if this is going to happen but to what extent it will happen and which company NGC or PCGS will be most successful in achieving market penetration in China.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #5 on: May 04, 2011, 01:54:49 PM »
It is still open to question as to whether Chinese buyers in the long run will gravitate to graded or ungraded coins as a preference.

It's not open to question in the sense that quality will always be the most important. China is still far behind the West in numismatic sophistication, but the people with big bucks to spend aren't far behind, and they spend their money on the highest quality coins.

So what happens if the market becomes relatively oversupplied with graded coins and we are left with few in their original environment?

High grades are disappearing from the market. The only thing that's going to be oversupplied is the low grades that nobody wants, which keep circulating.

Is there a point in time where a supply/demand imbalance actually makes ungraded coins more demanded and valuable?

Haha, absolutely not. The only coins that will be left in the crappy original packaging are coins that are so damaged you can tell even through the yellowed, dirty, scratched up plastic. Those coins would be so low-value that having the original packaging won't hurt, but it's not even 1 cent worth of plastic. The only thing the packaging is good for is figuring out which mint coins came from. The photographic record can do that, and I photo rare coins before I send them in for grading.

The best original mint packaging is total garbage compared to a finely engineered NGC holder. But, like KonaJim said, sets are interesting when they're in their original boxes. When selling coins, dealers always send the good stuff in for grading, and keep the boxes if they need to stuff them with damaged coins just to help get rid of them.

In short, there is no advantage to original packaging unless the coin is damaged. In the long term, this will only become more true, not less. For now, some coins are nice to keep in the original boxes, but when high grades start adding 1000% to the value, that will come to an end.

There are very few coins left that do not greatly increase in value when they earn a high grade at NGC. Of course, the simple risk of fakes alone will totally wipe out the high quality, ungraded coin market eventually. People just won't buy them on your promise that it's high grade and genuine. Instead, you'll get a low grade price, until your coin becomes "official", with a high grade.

Offline BobW

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #6 on: May 04, 2011, 02:13:34 PM »
I think almost all collectors of modern coins regard a "66" grade as junk. That phenomena seems to prevail for just about every country. Try selling a US gold spouse coin with a "66" grade and if you are lucky, you will get melt value for the coin. Rare coins are the exception  --- usually.

Like a "66" St. Gaudens, a great many "66" Chinese coins that old, are spectacular coins also. And they are likely much scarcer.

A check of the PCGS and NGC population reports reveals, with the exception of later date Panda coins, relatively few graded Chinese coins. The same situation holds true on eBay. Perhaps this situation will change. What is surprising to me is the number of sales of expensive Chinese coins that have not been authenticated or are not in the original packaging.


Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #7 on: May 04, 2011, 02:14:58 PM »
in HK the ones with deeper pockets get it graded....

They have deeper pockets than everyone else because they're smarter than everyone else. They're buying up the good stuff, leaving all the low grades for everyone else that isn't as sophisticated as they are.

Just wait till the PCGS video find its way to the Chinese, I am pretty sure most of them will have their urge to sent coins for grading kill off in an instant... well I know for sure that video pop my fantasy of sophisticated technology being used to grade my coin, considering the price they are charging.

Well I do see NGC being successful here and that is when the market starts to attract not collectors or dealers but pure speculators who flip them for quick profits. NGC and their grade will be helpful for them.

The money is being concentrated on the rare, high grade coins. Again, that's why the wealthy people with "deep pockets" are the wealthy people with deep pockets. They know and understand quality better than the poorer people who are satisfied with less.

Many chinese collectors still want their collection in original packaging, thats why sometimes COA and Boxes are selling for hundreds of USD.  

I just recently ask the price difference of having a COA for the dragon culture gold coin and not having one and is more 30%.

It's a lot easier to fake packaging than it is to fake a coin. But, if you're stuffing a fake coin into fake packaging, it's much easier to sell a low-quality fake coin. The value of the original mint packaging is going to completely disappear at any moment because it's so easy to fake. Already, major dealers have admitted to faking mint packaging, which helps them sell low quality coins to unsophisticated buyers who value the plastic more than the quality of the coin. You'll see, you'll lose all that "value" you think you have in that plastic. In the future, original packaging will only be a sign a low quality, or fakes.

Not to mention I don't see why so many of you are so optimistic about NGC or other grading service scoring big in CHINA. I mean NGC and all those grading companies fail to even break in to the Euro market or is simply doing badly there, what makes you guys think its any different in China

America invented coin grading. America is the most sophisticated numismatic market in the world. Everyone is behind America. Europeans are much worse than Chinese people in their sophistication for coin collecting. Chinese people know quality, and they value originality.

They still make the mistake of valuing the wrong KIND of originality (worthless, degrading, easy to fake, damaging, plastic!) but at least they have an instinctive sense that originality is important. That means they will learn to be as sophisticated as Americans, and maybe even more, I hope.

I don't think it's wise to make comparisons to Europe though, because they are the worst possible people who collect coins. On the scale of collecting sophistication, it goes like this:

1. America
2. China and the rest of the East
3. The latrine of a nuclear waste dump in Africa
4. The moon
5. Europe

There are a few Europeans that are like Americans in their sophistication, but all the rest are completely retarded. They damage their coins while they dance around and pretend how important they are. Their tenured museum conservators will trash a coin right in front of you, sort of like how this guy handles a priceless artifact of American history (funny!):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HqZWsJ2oO_E

It's an early original phonograph record. He's damaging it by rubbing away the recording every time he touches it, even before he finally destroys it completely with his oafish clumsy club hands. Yeah, he's done with that :)
« Last Edit: May 04, 2011, 02:21:41 PM by badon »

Offline ?

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #8 on: May 04, 2011, 04:51:18 PM »
sorry to say that out loud here but it is this, what makes you Americans so well appreciated in a world that is full of culture and history ten times bigger than your own:

I don't think it's wise to make comparisons to Europe though, because they are the worst possible people who collect coins. On the scale of collecting sophistication, it goes like this:

1. America
2. China and the rest of the East
3. The latrine of a nuclear waste dump in Africa
4. The moon
5. Europe


Just the 2 cents of an European standing behind the latrine and waiting for the next "6,000 years culture" to take over

greetz anwir

btw Wasn't someone recently saying here: Be polite
http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?action=post;quote=11183;topic=2736.0;num_replies=25;sesc=0bf9511b83afabe7baaf198c85d26ab2
or did this only refer to Americans....

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #9 on: May 04, 2011, 05:03:37 PM »
Europe damages or destroys most of the coins that pass through it. It's a fact, and most Europeans think you're crazy if you call attention to it. I'm not trying to offend Europeans, but it's still a fact - Europe is where coins are most frequently damaged by unsophisticated collectors - it's a numismatic backwater, and really a tragedy to the history and culture they're entrusted to preserve. Sorry if you're taking a broad generalization personally. It's still a fact.

I'm just pointing out that of the regions that have a lot of avid coin collectors, China is catching up to Americans on their appreciation of quality, and comparing to Europe is wrong because Europeans destroy their coins, while Chinese people don't, even if they're new to collecting.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #10 on: May 04, 2011, 05:24:16 PM »
No matter what continent you are from though the simple answer to the topic question is: "no."
In fact to elaborate on Badon's point about these coins being culturally significant, one could argue that not enough are being graded and too many continue to be melted, circulated, and destroyed by unsophisticated hands worldwide.

Offline badon

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #11 on: May 04, 2011, 05:26:26 PM »
Yes, Panda Halves, thank you. My attempt to make funnies backfired. Thanks for simplifying that for me.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #12 on: May 04, 2011, 05:34:01 PM »
... Just wait till the PCGS video find its way ...

On NGC site http://www.ngccoin.com/index.aspx is the grading process video "Your Coin’s Journey Through NGC".

Offline Pandora

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #13 on: May 04, 2011, 05:53:23 PM »
Grading gives me peace of mind, ease of sharing. The bragging rights and profits come later...

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Are Too Many Pandas Being Graded?
« Reply #14 on: May 04, 2011, 08:39:13 PM »
NGC grading process is just as bad as PCGS. The slab is pressd together. This can not seal the slab completely. There is no reason to have NCS to do conservation, since NGC is putting fingerprint back on the coin. It will take more than 5 years for those fingerprints to show up on the surface inside the slab. Time will tell.