WOW of the day

[badon]

Plating cannot be done to a coin after striking without changing its appearance. If the coin is struck after plating, then there are other clues that can reveal whether it is plated or not. As poconopenn has already pointed out, thickness of plating can be an important factor, but all that does is determine your testing methods. There are many ways to find out what's inside the coin, and most of them are not only non-destructive, but also non-contact.

Silver has unique properties. It is not possible to make a coin out of something other than silver, and keep it a secret. For example, silver is the most electrically conductive element. The composition of the coin can be roughly determined by measuring it's conductance profile. And, if there is a silver plating, the average plating thickness can be estimated pretty easily using very similar conductance analysis techniques.

I'm not convinced there is a mystery here, but once I get a chance to adequately review what poconopenn is saying about possible genuine plated specimen (photos would help - the more the better), I may decide to agree with him that there are plated versions out there. For now, the only thing that is certain is the mystery will get solved eventually, even if I have to crack out my own coins and hassle somebody for some lab time - no guarantees when I'll get around to that, if it's necessary, though :)

In short, the composition of these coins can be determined well enough. The ability of science to analyze them far outstrips the ability of forgers to fake them.

By the way, I conducted similar studies of 1984 goldfish that bonke has reported. We have been in communication during the course of some of that, and although I'd love to see the actual reports from NGC, what bonke has been saying appears to me to be solid, credible research. My results were very similar to his, either way, and I think some of the same exact 1984 goldfish fakes have passed through both of our hands at least once.

For now, my opinion is in agreement with bonke's. I think the solid silver 1984 one-fish goldfish are genuine mint products, and an exciting little mystery. They are much rarer than pagodas, as far as I have been able to determine. The existence of the 1990 version is almost screaming at us that they were made following the heritage of genuine older versions from 1984. It's too much of a coincidence that such similar coins could exist totally by accident. They must have the same heritage as products of the China mint - and if they do not, then the mystery would be much deeper than any of us had imagined...

As for fakes of the 1990 goldfish, I have not seen or heard of any before. They have a very distinctive cartwheel pattern that has probably made it too difficult to make a convincing fake (so far). I love the 1990 design as much as the 1984 design. In my opinion, the goldfish coins are the most elegant and simply beautiful coins China has ever produced. Nothing else comes close - not even the 1990 dragon & phoenix (which is stunning too). The goldfish are so distinctive, if you put one on a table next to hundreds of other coins, your eyes would instantly be drawn to the goldfish. They're so understated - so simple - it really is a classic case of "less is more". How could something so serene as a happy little goldfish be so bold? I am fascinated by them. It is fine art amongst fine art.

About grading statistics for pagodas: We got lucky with the pagodas when an original hoard from 1984 was found. If I remember correctly, there were about 40 sets in the hoard, so if the total number of sets graded is about 56 (also counting 1 or 2 fakes that slipped through), then perhaps 10 or 12 sets did not come from the hoard.

Although many pagodas have been graded, only a few have been brought to the market. The rest are sleeping in someone's collection, and may not come to the market for years, or longer. Every time I have asked, the current owners of those coins have declined to entertain my inquiries about possible pricing for them. Even when prices went to $25k, there was no interest in selling.

Don't forget that many of the sales or offerings for sales we have seen could be the same coins circulating. The true number of coins out in the market is very likely to be smaller than the number of offerings we have seen. With that said, the fact that we have seen so few offerings is pretty convincing that the owners of most of the pagoda sets have not been selling them behind my back (I want first dibs, of course, haha). If there were nearly 60 sets circulating in such a small market, they would be everywhere, constantly available, any time you wanted one. That is not the case, because most of those coins are simply off the market.

[Panda Express]

Badon, I believe I have a compilation set of 1984 pagodas from 3 separate sets that were sold individually to me. All are graded PF-69.  I currently don't have the coins with me at present.  Later tonight, I will weigh each medal with their NGC holders to see if there are any weight differences of 2.22 gms.  I will post my findings tomorrow. Do you happen to know the average weight of an empty NGC S10Y holder? I really appreciate all of the knowledgeable experts opinions including yourself on the CCF forum.  This has enhanced my knowledge of metal analysis and plating techniques.  I hope in the near future we can finally get down to the bottom of these important issues concerning the Pagodas especially that I have a little vested interest. I don't plan on selling my pagoda set anytime soon.

[badon]

I'm not sure of the weight of NGC holders. I wonder if we could persuade NGC to publish that data? I would really love to be researching this subject, and add my information to the CC - but I'm swamped!

[SANDAC]

Another interesting perspective surrounding the controversial 1984 Silver/Silver plated Ancient Pagoda Set that makes everybody wonder about its true rarity are the high number of graded sets by NGC.  Take for instance if we compare the percentage numbers with similar rare silver MCC like the 1984 1 oz Hong Kong Show Panda and the 1980 Silver Piefort Proof Olympic Set with low mintage numbers of 1000 and 500 respectively.  The percentage of raw to graded is as follows:

1984 Ancient Pagoda Set  roughly 56 graded sets by NGC             22%
1984 1 oz Silver Hong Kong Show medal 59 graded by NGC             6%
1980 Silver Piefort Proof Olympic Set roughly 20 graded sets            6%

As you can see that there is a sizable discrepancy in percentages among the coins compared.  The total mintage for the 1984 Ancient Pagoda Sets are 260.  This leads me to the possible conclusion that there may be more Pagoda sets out there. That's just my 2 cents worth IMHO.

The number of graded set right now is little bit over 60 and the curve is flattening out. See the attached graph.  My gut feeling is that rarity, high price, and notoriety caused a disproportionate number of Pagoda to be graded.  Buyer wants the coins to be graded so their authenticity and quality are known.  Dealer wants grading company to share the risk and "insure" the coin.  Up to a few months ago, the grading cost was only $22.5 per coin.  The insurance was too cheap to pass up.

Of the 60 or so graded population, about 48 of them are captured in CC.  That's amazingly high percentage of capture giving the young age of CC.  I think there are two reasons for this: one is the notoriety of these coins caused lots of interests and discussion (the activity of this thread is a good example), and many examples are cited and then captured by CC.  Analyzing the CC data and you can see the 2nd reason is that about 45% of the the existing population is from 3 large submission, probably dealer inventories.  For a long time pagoda was dirt cheap and still no one wanted them.  The silver content are too little to recover cost through melt down so they just sat in dealer inventory.  When they become popular the dealers submitted their entire inventory and that really jack up the population count.

I'm monitoring the growth rate of Pagoda population.  If the mintage is really 260, the curve should stay flat from now out.

[Year of the Dog]

If somebody contacts NGC or PCGS to get a accurate weight on there slabs make sure you get a weight on all the gaskets as well.  There is far more rubber on a slab holding a 1/20 coin then there is a slab holding a 1oz coin.

[Underbidder]

Pretty graphs.   I love graphs.

Makes some sense.


Now will somebody, please, down a bottle of tequila, and cut your suspect low grade Pagoda in half with a freakin' hacksaw and let us all know what ya find?

[badon]

Now will somebody, please, down a bottle of tequila, and cut your suspect low grade Pagoda in half with a freakin' hacksaw and let us all know what ya find?

Actually, I was feeling a bit evil, and considered using a die grinder to just grind away one side of the coin. I might as well do the temple side, just to maximize the evil factor.

[badon]

SANDAC, some of those might be resubmissions. The Kaiyuan and the Yingxian are the hardest ones to get in a 69 Ultra Cameo, so that may explain why those continued to increase while Songyue stayed flat. The Songyue is the easiest to get in a 69 Ultra Cameo.

Actually, now that I think about it, I bet people are not only trying to get their 68's upgraded to 69's, but also submitting "ugly" sets that they had previously left ungraded. The 68's and lower have been circulating, while people tend to hold the 69's, so maybe more than one person was trying their luck at getting upgraded to a 69.

That recent pagoda set with extremely low grades was probably a very good candidate for resubmission, for example. I can't think of any other reason people would be so excited about buying it :)

[Underbidder]

... "I was feeling a bit evil, and considered using a die grinder to just grind away one side of the coin. I might as well do the temple side..."

NO !   NOT THE TEMPLE SIDE !!!  JEESH!

[SANDAC]

I just weighted one set and here are the number:
2772693-001 Songyue--60.93g
2772693-002 Kaiyuan--61.18g
2772693-003 Yingxian--60.96g
2772693-004 Zhenjue--60.71g

The deviation is larger than I expected.  It is not the scale, I weighted twice and got the same number.

[Underbidder]

Off the top, I am not sure that the difference is "statistically" significant.

[Panda Express]

Determining the Calculated Weight of the 1984 Ancient Pagoda Temple Medals

Panda Express Pagoda Set


*Ancient Pagoda COA weight of each Medal = 22.22 gm
** Ancient Pagoda NGC Label Weight = 20 gm
***NGC Holder Weight without Medal (36 mm coin diameter) = 39.49 gm

Determining the Calculated Weight of the 1984 Ancient Pagoda Temple Medals:
1. NGC Holder Weight with Pagoda Medal minus NGC Holder Weight without Medal (36 mm coin diameter) = 39.49 gm
2. NGC Holder Weight With Pagoda Medal minus 39.49 gm equals the calculated weight of each Pagoda Medal

Conclusions:
1. The weights of Panda Express Pagoda Medals are approximately equivalent to the weight as stated in the Certificate of Authenticity.
2. The weights of each Pagoda Medal as stated on the NGC label should actually be printed as 22.22 gm instead of 20 gm.
3. The Ancient Pagoda Medals of this set are Authentic with a silver content of 0.90% and not silver plated.


Created by Panda Express

[pandamonium]

Once again, IF the open line and closed line "plated variety" are real pagodas.  Then what we have is a new variety.  No?   ( OK, lets wait until we find out more info on possible plating.)..................   

[Panda Express]

Once again, IF the open line and closed line "plated variety" are real pagodas.  Then what we have is a new variety.  No?   ( OK, lets wait until we find out more info on possible plating.)..................   

The open and broken border pagoda medal varieties, provided that each medal can be calculated approximately 22.22 gm, would be consider as 0.90 silver content and not silver plated. If you have the NGC holder on hand you can calculate its approximate weight for any pagoda medal.  IMHO, I believe that the broken border medal maybe a genuine variety if the medal was weighed by NGC at 22.2 gm.

[poconopenn]

The Fan-graded sets were silver plated.  My raw sets were not.

Still, if Poconopenn is correct, it is impossible to test whether a medal is silver, silver-plated, gold, gold-plated, platinum or platinum-plated. 

I do not have a scientific background and do not have the slightest idea how deeply the beams from an XRF machine can penetrate into a coin or medal or how thick the plating is on a silver-plated coin or medal.  I am able to test weight, thickness and diameter.  I do not know how to test specific gravity.  One day, if and when I purchase a XRF machine, I will happily test my potential purchases.  If the machine tells me the item is silver-plated, I (hopefully) will not purchase it.  If I do purchase it and still am worried, I will ask NGC to test it again before they authenicate, grade and slab it for me. At this point, I rely on the NGC analysis.

I am a collector.  I do want to add to my collection of Chinese coins and medals in the future.  I do not want to become so negative or frightened that I will stop "collecting".

Mark Bonke 

bonke,

According to the following listing, the silver one goldfish medal was made by Shanghai mint in 1996. The medal weighs 15 gm.

http://artxun.eastday.com/view-3-774901.html