Updates: 4/8/11
Total coin researched: 37 clear + 32 clouded + 12 super = 81
* 67 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99: two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
> clear (33): one 66, four 67, four 68, twenty-four 69
> clouded (24): two 65, eight 66, six 67, four 68, four 69
> super (10): five 68, five 69
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)
> clear (4)
> clouded (8)
> super (2)
Note, the total mintage is unknown. Planned mintage figures of 2000 and 2500 have been reported, and an actual mintage of 2430 has been reported. I'm betting the 2430 actual mintage figure is the correct one.
Many of these coins were probably melted or damaged, so the actual surviving numbers are likely to be lower than these estimates!clear claw all grades: 37/81 = 45.7%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 1141
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 1110
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 914
clear claw 69: 24/33 graded = 72.7%
* Population out of 1141 mintage = 830
* Population out of 1110 mintage = 807
* Population out of 914 mintage = 665
clouded claw all grades: 32/81 = 39.5%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 988
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 960
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 790
clouded claw 69: 4/24 graded = 17%
* Population out of 988 total = 165
* Population out of 960 total = 160
* Population out of 790 total = 132
super clouded claw all grades: 12/81 = 14.8%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 370
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 360
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 296
super clouded claw 69: 5/10 graded = 50%
* Population out of 370 total = 185
* Population out of 360 total = 180
* Population out of 296 total = 148
Summary:
Mintage estimates, based on 2430 actual total mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 1110
clouded claw: 960
super clouded claw: 36069 grade population estimates, based on 2430 total actual mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 807
clouded claw: 160, 5 times rarer than the clear claw
super clouded claw: 180, 4.5 times rarer than the clear clawThese newly calculated numbers are interesting. The super clouded claw has the greatest mintage rarity, at 360. But, the clouded claw has a slightly greater grade rarity, even though it has almost 3 times the mintage.
The relative rarity between the varieties in a 69 grade is interesting for the purpose of pricing coins. In an investment quality 69 grade, the clouded claw is 5 times rarer than the clear claw, and the super clouded claw is 4.5 times rarer. That implies that if, for example, an investment grade clear claw costs $1200, then a clouded claw should cost something like 5 times more ($6000), and a super clouded claw should cost something like 4.5 times more ($5400).
In actual practice, those kinds of relative price guesses don't work out very well, but they are a good starting basis. The biggest reason they don't work out very well is because the market isn't mature yet. For example, if a coin isn't popular, it will sell for much less. If it's very popular, it could sell for much more. And, at least at first, most of the action is concentrated on the key coin.
Each time we update these numbers, the clouded claw and the super clouded claw keep switching places for being the rarest in a 69 investment grade. But, the clear claw always remains as the most common, both in terms of mintage rarity, and grade rarity.
I'm sure these numbers will be adjusted more in the future as more data is collected, thanks to PandaOrLunar. Each time the figures get adjusted, the overall relative rarities change less and less, which means we're getting closer to actual truth of which coins are the rarest.
