Author Topic: 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war and wealth varieties discovered by reiboy of CCF  (Read 46923 times)

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Offline Grip

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I've seen a lot of all varieties popping up recently. For a rare mintage, too much....

Underbidder

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Agreed, too many...I wonder who gains from all the hype....WAIT !   Hey Badon, you stamping these things out in your basement?! :ohmy:

Offline badon

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This always happens when prices rise suddenly. More coins come to the market. For example, I counted 4 1995 1 oz gold proof pandas that came to the market after one of them hit $18,700. The mintage of that coin is only 555.

The coins you're seeing are not "too much". They're an opportunity to buy that will end once they're all in collector hands. Just like the 2000 mirror pandas, which were plentiful for a while, and not really all that rare. But, now that they're gone, it costs a fortune to get one.

The same thing will happen to these coins that you think have "too much" supply. Last time somebody thought there was too much supply, they only cost $160. Now they cost 10 times that much, and it's only been a year. Next year, they may cost 10 times more again...

$18,000 for a coin with a mintage of only a few hundred is not a lot of money. The 1995 1 oz gold proof panda has been much less popular with the dominant Chinese buyers than coins like the God of War & Wealth. I guarantee you those will cost you 5 figures sometime in the next few years.

Offline badon

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By the way, I remember when people were looking at the clear claw coin at the same website, when it was $975...and they thought that was too much. It sat, and sat, and finally somebody bought it. That was only about 2 months ago, and now the smart owner has nearly doubled his money :)

Offline badon

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Updates:  4/8/11

Total coin researched:  37 clear + 32 clouded + 12 super =  81
* 67 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear (33):    one 66, four 67, four 68, twenty-four 69
  > clouded (24):  two 65, eight 66, six 67, four 68, four 69
  > super (10):    five 68, five 69
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)
  > clear (4)
  > clouded (8)
  > super (2)

Note, the total mintage is unknown. Planned mintage figures of 2000 and 2500 have been reported, and an actual mintage of 2430 has been reported. I'm betting the 2430 actual mintage figure is the correct one. Many of these coins were probably melted or damaged, so the actual surviving numbers are likely to be lower than these estimates!

clear claw all grades: 37/81 = 45.7%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 1141
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 1110
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 914

clear claw 69: 24/33 graded = 72.7%
* Population out of 1141 mintage = 830
* Population out of 1110 mintage = 807
* Population out of 914 mintage = 665



clouded claw all grades: 32/81 = 39.5%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 988
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 960
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 790

clouded claw 69: 4/24 graded = 17%
* Population out of 988 total = 165
* Population out of 960 total = 160
* Population out of 790 total = 132



super clouded claw all grades: 12/81 = 14.8%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 370
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 360
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 296

super clouded claw 69: 5/10 graded = 50%
* Population out of 370 total = 185
* Population out of 360 total = 180
* Population out of 296 total = 148

Summary:

Mintage estimates, based on 2430 actual total mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 1110
clouded claw: 960
super clouded claw: 360


69 grade population estimates, based on 2430 total actual mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 807
clouded claw: 160, 5 times rarer than the clear claw
super clouded claw: 180, 4.5 times rarer than the clear claw


These newly calculated numbers are interesting. The super clouded claw has the greatest mintage rarity, at 360. But, the clouded claw has a slightly greater grade rarity, even though it has almost 3 times the mintage.

The relative rarity between the varieties in a 69 grade is interesting for the purpose of pricing coins. In an investment quality 69 grade, the clouded claw is 5 times rarer than the clear claw, and the super clouded claw is 4.5 times rarer. That implies that if, for example, an investment grade clear claw costs $1200, then a clouded claw should cost something like 5 times more ($6000), and a super clouded claw should cost something like 4.5 times more ($5400).

In actual practice, those kinds of relative price guesses don't work out very well, but they are a good starting basis. The biggest reason they don't work out very well is because the market isn't mature yet. For example, if a coin isn't popular, it will sell for much less. If it's very popular, it could sell for much more. And, at least at first, most of the action is concentrated on the key coin.

Each time we update these numbers, the clouded claw and the super clouded claw keep switching places for being the rarest in a 69 investment grade. But, the clear claw always remains as the most common, both in terms of mintage rarity, and grade rarity.

I'm sure these numbers will be adjusted more in the future as more data is collected, thanks to PandaOrLunar. Each time the figures get adjusted, the overall relative rarities change less and less, which means we're getting closer to actual truth of which coins are the rarest.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2011, 12:21:59 PM by badon »

Offline Grip

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Just listed today on rare coin collector and -Gone at 2100.00!!! (I know underbidder didn't buy it)..... :laugh:
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 05:56:55 PM by Grip »

Offline badon

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I think a coin with an estimated population of 180 in 69 grade should sell for a lot more than $2100. If we go by the figure of 4.5 times the clear claw price, then it ought to be a $5400 coin RIGHT NOW. Since the clear claw is ALSO ridiculously underpriced, I think it's safe to double those numbers to get an estimate of what the likely fair valuation could be within the next 6 months to 1 year.

You think it sounds crazy for these to go up that much in 1 year? Really? Well, hah, don't forget that they were ALL selling for $160 last year!

The clouded and super clouded coins in 69 grade are probably going to hit the $10,000 level fast, if the supply and buying continues. If the supply dries up, then the gains will probably seem to stop, until a future sale shocks upward to the higher prices.

Offline Grip

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I agree. It was priced too cheap-thats why it sold so fast. I guarantee the next listing will be way higher. Kirin has already increased the "raw" clear claw at his store to 2375.00. Pandora got a good buy a few weeks ago as this discovery was unfolding-go girl.... :thumbup:
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 06:16:07 PM by Grip »

Offline badon

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Which store? If the clear claw is $2375, then the super clouded ought to be $10,687.50 at 4.5 times the price of the clear claw, with both coins in a 69 grade.

Offline Grip

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Offline Pandora

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What! I missed a Super Clouded Claw!! That too a 69 at only 2100? I need those drones keeping an eye on listings... :crying:  :001_tt1:  :cursing:  :glare:  :mad:  :ohmy:

Offline Pandora

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I agree. It was priced too cheap-thats why it sold so fast. I guarantee the next listing will be way higher. Kirin has already increased the "raw" clear claw at his store to 2375.00. Pandora got a good buy a few weeks ago as this discovery was unfolding-go man.... :thumbup:

I really need 69s. I got clear and clouded claws in raw. Lets see how they grade.

Whoever got that super in 69, luckiest man!!

Offline Grip

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What! I missed a Super Clouded Claw!! That too a 69 at only 2100? I need those drones keeping an eye on listings... :crying:  :001_tt1:  :cursing:  :glare:  :mad:  :ohmy:
Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the discovery unfolds -and these medals as well ...
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 07:00:59 PM by Grip »

Offline Pandora

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Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the story unfolds and so these as well ...

That is true for future. But as of now, I need the super to complete the set...I am sure it will turn up sooner or later.

Drones - those un-manned planes keeping an eye on stuff :-)

Offline badon

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Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the discovery unfolds -and these medals as well ...

I think you mean 1992 1 oz silver proof pandas?