Author Topic: 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war and wealth varieties discovered by reiboy of CCF  (Read 52282 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline PandaOrLunar

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1180
  • Karma: 30
Updates:  4/6/11

Total coin researched:  26 clear + 11 clouded + 12 super =  49
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)


clear:  26/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 1,327
* % of 2430 = 1,289
* % of 2000 = 1,061


clouded:  11/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 561
* % of 2430 = 546
* % of 2000 = 449


super:  12/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 612
* % of 2430 = 595
* % of 2000 = 490

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
This is interesting, it looks like the clouded and super clouded may have the same mintage. The maximum mintage estimate for both is only around 600 coins, which doesn't include grade rarity or losses due to melting. Even the clear claw only has a little over 1000.

This is a very rare coin, and it's going to be quite hard to assemble a 69 set of all three types. Has anybody done it yet?

Offline Pandora

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 714
  • Karma: 14
Great work PandaOrLunar!

Is it possible to provide a NGC population breakup among the 3 varieties? That should give us clue towards the grade rarity.

This is getting very interesting.

Offline PandaOrLunar

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1180
  • Karma: 30
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)

It looks like about 70% earn a 69 grade. If it were broken down by type, we might get a better idea whether all the types hold to that ratio, or if one of the varieties were mishandled more than the others to create some additional grade rarity.

Assuming all 3 varieties have the same 70% ratio of 69 coins, then I estimate 69 grade populations as follows (assuming no melting or other losses, and that high grade specimens were not submitted for grading preferentially):

clear:  18/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 925
* % of 2430 = 898
* % of 2000 = 740


clouded:  8/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 391
* % of 2430 = 381
* % of 2000 = 313


super:  8/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 427
* % of 2430 = 415
* % of 2000 = 342

Since there probably were losses due to melting and other reasons, and that high grade specimens were probably submitted preferentially, I think it's safe to say that the actual number of surviving coins is lower than these figures - but nobody knows yet just how much lower.

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

Looks like my numbers are going to have to be adjusted. The clear and clouded are more common than my numbers in a 69 grade, while the super clouded is much rarer in a 69 grade.

Offline Pandora

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 714
  • Karma: 14
Thank you PandaOrLunar.

The total graded numbers do not add up. We should have total 54 69s.

Offline PandaOrLunar

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1180
  • Karma: 30
Thank you PandaOrLunar.

The total graded numbers do not add up. We should have total 54 69s.

The 54 is from NGC census report.  The 35 is from my research.

Offline Pandora

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 714
  • Karma: 14
The 54 is from NGC census report.  The 35 is from my research.

Got it, thanks!

The clouded has only 3 graded in your research. It could mean that clouded is the newest variety to hit US, and it is just being getting graded.

Offline Pandora

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 714
  • Karma: 14
Looks like my numbers are going to have to be adjusted. The clear and clouded are more common than my numbers in a 69 grade, while the super clouded is much rarer in a 69 grade.

Badon, looks like clouded is rarer in 69 grade than the super. It could be that clouded coins are hitting NGC only recently.

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

clear all grades: 26/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 1,327
* % of 2430 = 1,289
* % of 2000 = 1,061

clouded all grades:  11/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 561
* % of 2430 = 546
* % of 2000 = 449

super all grades:  12/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 612
* % of 2430 = 595
* % of 2000 = 490

clear 69:  17/22 = 77.3%
* % of 2500 = 1025
* % of 2430 = 996
* % of 2000 = 820

clouded 69:  1/3= 33.3%
* % of 2500 = 187
* % of 2430 = 182
* % of 2000 = 150

super 69:  5/10 = 50%
* % of 2500 = 306
* % of 2430 = 298
* % of 2000 = 245

I don't think there's enough data to be sure of the 69 grade numbers yet, but in this early data, it appears that all coins are much rarer in 69 grade than in other grades, and that the clouded and super clouded are the rarest. With more information, these numbers keep getting smaller, even though they're already tiny.

Right now, it appears only 150 people in the world will be able to assemble a set of all 3 coins in a 69 grade. Remember that if there were losses to melting and other causes, which is pretty much guaranteed, these numbers could be cut in half...or more. Also, these numbers assume that high grade coins were not submitted preferentially, which is certainly not correct. That will cut the numbers down even more.

Offline PandaOrLunar

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1180
  • Karma: 30
Updates:  4/8/11

Total coin researched:  37 clear + 32 clouded + 12 super =  81
* 67 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear (33):    one 66, four 67, four 68, twenty-four 69
  > clouded (24):  two 65, eight 66, six 67, four 68, four 69
  > super (10):    five 68, five 69
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)
  > clear (4)
  > clouded (8)
  > super (2)


clear:  37/81 = 45.7%
* % of 2500 = 1,142
* % of 2430 = 1,110
* % of 2000 =   914


clouded:  32/81 = 39.5%
* % of 2500 = 988
* % of 2430 = 960
* % of 2000 = 790


super:  12/81 = 14.8%
* % of 2500 = 370
* % of 2430 = 360
* % of 2000 = 296

Offline badon

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4487
  • Karma: -81
If you calculate the percentages for both raw and graded, we can get an idea of how accurate the information is. Also, can you calculate the 69 grade populations too?

Offline dooney

  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 73
  • Karma: 0
  • Gender: Male
Great work guys! Wonder if there are variants in the 87 God of Longevity Medal....

I owned one '87 God of Longevity medal and I can verify that it was a clouded claw variety. I remember it because it was very obvious and looked sort of strange to me. Unfortunately, that coin has been sold. :(

Dooney

Offline Pandora

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 714
  • Karma: 14