Author Topic: 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war and wealth varieties discovered by reiboy of CCF  (Read 48526 times)

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Offline badon

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Another first for the CCF, the 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war and wealth coins have been discovered by relatively new CCF member "reiboy" to be made up of two varieties: a "clouded claw" and a "clear claw", which is the claw located above the dragon's head, on the upper right of the dragon and phoenix side of the coin.

This coin already has a very low planned mintage of 2000 or 2500 (sources vary, one source says actual mintage is 2430 - certainly many were melted or damaged). Now that we know it is made up of two varieties, each one is going to necessarily be just a fraction of the total mintage.

I have been researching these coins lately, and so far in my opinion, it seems the clouded claw variety is the rarer variety. My very preliminary information on die states for the clouded claw variety seems to support the idea that fewer of them were made with the clouded claw die. But, once again, this is all very preliminary. We may learn more things as this develops, since this discovery is literally just a few minutes old.

I do believe the clouded claw to be a variety, and not an error. It seems from the photos that the clouds are features of the die, and not accidental excess frosting. I have seen both of these coins in person, but I don't have them in front of me now to say this for 100% certainty yet.

Good job reiboy!

Here's the discovery:

One of these Taels is not like the others
« Last Edit: March 10, 2011, 09:24:06 PM by badon »

Offline reiboy

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Wow, that's pretty cool if it's true!

Please do let us know what you find with further research badon!

I'm loving this hobby more and more! Never thought something so subtle can be so exciting. When I mentioned to my wife how I may have discovered a variety of a silver Chinese coin she looked at me like I had 2 heads  :001_tongue:

Offline badon

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Haha, you're going to have to go to the coin shows wearing a name tag that says:

reiboy
Discoverer of the god of war and wealth varieties

I dare you :) go shake a bunch of hands and tell them how famous you are :)

Offline r3globe

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sorry for the question, but which claw? The top right?

Offline badon

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Yes, right above the dragon's head. The dragon has one arm wrapped behind the square central motif, like he's hold it up or something. The arm is raised, and the claw is exactly above his head. In one variety, the claw is surrounded by clouds. In the other variety, the claw is clear of clouds, with just a bit of mirror field separating the claw from the clouds.

Offline r3globe

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yep i see it! Thanks! So you think that is because of different dies at two different locations possibly?

Offline badon

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Once I get to compare specimens of both varieties side by side, I'll be able to say for sure whether it's a frosting error, or a true variety. It is definitely different dies, but the mintage is so low, I'd be surprised if the coins were minted at two different mints. If it turns out to be a frosting error, then it'll be probably from just one mint. If it turns out to be an actual feature of the coin, then it's possible it was done intentionally to distinguish coins from different mints.

Offline badon

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Right now, I think it's an intentional feature - that means it's probably from different mints. But, once again, I have to verify this with the coins in front of me to be 100% sure. The photos do appear to show it that way though.

Offline badon

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By the way, if it does turn out that the coins are from different mints, then these varieties become more than just varieties - they're both required for a collector to have a complete set. That means prices are likely to be going WAY up, much like the large and small date pandas.

Offline reiboy

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That is just nuts! Wow... interesting to see how this plays out.

The more I study the pics the more differences I see. The spacing between the dragon's head and neck, as well as between the phoenix's head and raised wing - both are narrower in the clouded claw version. Looking less like a frosting error.

Offline badon

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You know, the clear claw dies show evidence of much damage. I suspect it may have simply been replaced after it was worn out, and they just made a new die a bit different, with a clouded claw. I may have a photo of some of the evidence of damage that I've collected. Let me look around a bit.

Offline PandaCollector

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Very cool discovery. Could we see photos that show the entire pouch?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline badon

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The pouch is plain, with no fancy sealing that identifies the mint. You can see a glimpse of the edge in this photo:

http://img.auctiva.com/imgdata/7/4/2/9/9/6/webimg/450175382_o.jpg

Offline Pandora

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I got some photos of the coin from the PF68 eBay seller. From seller's photos, it does not seem to be the clouded claw version. Amazingly, the NGC Cert# is same, and the NGC Cert Verification Website photos show clouded claw version. Also, the photos in the eBay listing seem (they are not very detailed) also seems to be same as NGC version (clouded claw)

NGC Photos

eBay listing

I can not explain it.

Offline Pandora

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Here is another photo...there is 8 MB limit.


Offline Pandora

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Here is the third one...This one shows the NGC Cert #

Offline badon

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It must be that the seller used a photo from different coins for the front and back. It still hasn't been established for certain yet which variety is rarer. Of course, it's possible they're equal in rarity. We just don't know for sure yet. I have good reasons to believe the clouded claw is rarer, but those reasons aren't verified, and they could easily be skewed by quirks in the source of the hoard of coins that's putting these on the market.

Also, I increased the file size limit so you can upload images larger than 8 MB.

Offline badon

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These have been listed in Buy-It-Now listings for the old price of around $900. Needless to say, they didn't last long, and the seller has increased the price a little. I think they're still underpriced. The seller probably hasn't noticed what's going on with these yet.

Offline badon

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Now, prices are up to $1875 for UNGRADED Buy-It-Now coins. Wow!

Offline Pandaguy

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SORRY FOLKS, but I have a THIRD variety in my possession. It is similar to Badon's posted photo of clouded claw, however it is a Super Clouded Claw. My camera just broke, so I can't post a photo of it now. However, I have copied Badon's Clouded claw and boxed-in where the additional frosting is located. Take a look.


Offline badon

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So, now we have to find THREE coins out of a miniscule mintage of 2000 to 2500 coins before we've got a complete set? Price pressure is going to be quite a bit stronger now.

If all three varieties have the same mintage, then that means there's only about 800 of each variety. If some varieties are rarer than others, which is likely, then whatever the rarest variety turns out to be, it probably has a mintage of less than 800.

Offline Pandora

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I wonder what will the clouded and super clouded varieties be worth today...

Are there any steps we need to take to have NGC recognize them?

Offline badon

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The last clouded claw variety I saw sold in a 68 grade for $1850.

Offline Pandaguy

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Okay. I finally was able to photograph my "super clouded claw". Now, we can add one more to the known population.


Offline Pandora

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Congrats Pandaguy! This is a fantastic coin!! it seems to be graded. Can you share what is the grade?

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Is the claw area the only difference between the 3 varieties?  Has anyone done a close up examination of both sides to see if there are any other difference?  Sometime we are so focus on a particular tree, we might miss the forest.

Offline badon

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There are other differences, but I prefer to not share them for the moment so that I will be able to identify fakes if they ever appear on the market. By not sharing all the details, the counterfeiters will probably make a mistake that will show that their coin is fake.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Offline reiboy

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Offline badon

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Beautiful coins, all genuine.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Based on unscientific research using limited roboting of NGC, eBay listings, and other auction sites, here is my number so far

clear:  16 (49% of 2500 = 1212)
clouded:  10 (30% of 2500 = 758)
super clouded:  7 (21% of 2500 = 530)

Offline Pandora

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Where do you see 7 super clouded? I can find one for sale :-)

Offline badon

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Based on unscientific research using limited roboting of NGC, eBay listings, and other auction sites, here is my number so far

clear:  16 (49% of 2500 = 1212)
clouded:  10 (30% of 2500 = 758)
super clouded:  7 (21% of 2500 = 530)

Excellent work, could you do your calculations for each of the 3 mintage figures of 2000, 2430, and 2500? That would be interesting to see them all in one place.

Let's also not forget that many of these were probably melted. I would not be surprised if info came out that says more than half were melted.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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5 super from NGC:
2757328-007
2763641-003
2763641-006
3449783-008
3452783-008

1 super from my archive of auction sites

1 super from this forum


Total coin researched:  16 + 10 + 7 =  33

clear:  16/33 = 48.48%
* % of 2500 = 1,212.1
* % of 2430 = 1,178.2
* % of 2000 =   969.7

clouded:  10/33 = 30.30%
* % of 2500 = 757.6
* % of 2430 = 736.4
* % of 2000 = 606.1

super clouded:  7/33 = 21.21%
* % of 2500 = 530.3
* % of 2430 = 515.5
* % of 2000 = 424.2

Offline badon

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Great job! That's some excellent numbers you've handed us on a silver platter. Thanks for putting in the work to research that. So, it appears that the most common coin is much rarer than the 2 oz gold dragon & phoenix with a mintage of 2500, that sells for over $20,000. That's a lot of zeros...Did I mention that the god of war & wealth has the dragon & phoenix on it?

I'm looking at these numbers, and I'm certain I haven't bought enough of these coins yet. Hold on to your hats and buckle up, this is going to be a wild ride!

It will be interesting to see how the numbers change as more get graded.

Offline happycoins II

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Can't wait to upload the coin's pictures to this thread even my digital camera is broken. The attached is the scanned pictures of my god of wealth which I just got today, but I am not quite sure which type of variety should be for it.

Is it 2nd or 3 rd variety?

Thanks to this thread and LBC,

Happycoins
 

Offline bigtc

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Happy Coins, you have a variety 2.  Very nice!  I also received one from an Ebay seller before he started to differentiate.

Offline badon

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This is the clouded claw variety.

Offline happycoins II

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Happy Coins, you have a variety 2.  Very nice!  I also received one from an Ebay seller before he started to differentiate.
This is the clouded claw variety.
Thanks to both of you.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Updates

Total coin researched:  21 clear + 11 clouded + 10 super =  42
* 28 from NGC (Census Total Graded 64:  one graded 66 , four 67, eighteen 68, forty-one 69)
* 14 from raw


clear:  21/42 = 50.0%
* % of 2500 = 1,250
* % of 2430 = 1,215
* % of 2000 = 1,000


clouded:  11/42 = 26.2%
* % of 2500 = 655
* % of 2430 = 636
* % of 2000 = 524


super:  10/42 = 23.8%
* % of 2500 = 595
* % of 2430 = 579
* % of 2000 = 476

Offline Pandora

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Great work!

It is getting very interesting....the ebay seller I bought from said his sales lot was roughly 50% split between clear and clouded claw, and none super clouded.

Offline r3globe

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Updates

Total coin researched:  21 clear + 11 clouded + 10 super =  42
* 28 from NGC (Census Total Graded 64:  one graded 66 , four 67, eighteen 68, forty-one 69)
* 14 from raw


clear:  21/42 = 50.0%
* % of 2500 = 1,250
* % of 2430 = 1,215
* % of 2000 = 1,000


clouded:  11/42 = 26.2%
* % of 2500 = 655
* % of 2430 = 636
* % of 2000 = 524


super:  10/42 = 23.8%
* % of 2500 = 595
* % of 2430 = 579
* % of 2000 = 476

Great work! It is exciting to see this story unfold. 8 more and the sample size (50) will be statistically significant.

Offline badon

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Dealers are starting to call these type 1, 2, and 3. Let's remind them that we've already picked descriptive names for them: clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

The last thing we need is an exciting discovery to get confused because people are using different terminology. The CCF researchers, as the discoverers of these varieties, are entitled to assert the right to name them, but only if we assert the right.

CCF readers and researchers should send messages to any dealers that are using incorrect naming, to remind them that the varieties were discovered here, and we have already named them clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

Offline Pandora

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Dealers are starting to call these type 1, 2, and 3. Let's remind them that we've already picked descriptive names for them: clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

The last thing we need is an exciting discovery to get confused because people are using different terminology. The CCF researchers, as the discoverers of these varieties, are entitled to assert the right to name them, but only if we assert the right.

CCF readers and researchers should send messages to any dealers that are using incorrect naming, to remind them that the varieties were discovered here, and we have already named them clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

I had earlier emailed these names to ebay/jan_sold_it. Let me send him a reminder.

I called another dealer - rarecoincollector.net and gave them the names and the link to this forum.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2011, 01:51:34 PM by Pandora »

Offline badon

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Thanks for doing that. It looks like they are responding quickly.

Offline Pandora

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Thanks for doing that. It looks like they are responding quickly.

Yes, they have responded quickly to recognize varieties, and also have increased prices for the new varieties :-)

Offline badon

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I noticed the price increases. That's good for everybody that bought these coins immediately once the news came out that there were varieties. Prices seem to be holding strong too, because the coins are selling even at the higher prices.

Since the mintage estimates that PandaOrLunar has come up with show that all varieties are very rare, even without factoring the possibility that large numbers of them were melted, I think prices will go much higher than they are now. It will be fun to watch, even if I can't buy very many of them.

Offline Pandora

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I hope prices do not go very high before I get a chance to buy a super clouded claw :-)

Offline Pandaguy

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Well, you can blame it on the individual(s) who tipped-off the dealers................  >:(

Offline badon

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It was inevitable, I suppose. I tend to keep things to myself, or just amongst us here and at LBC. If anybody else wants to know, they can humbly read our research :)

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Agreed.  What happens in CCF stays in CCF :laugh:

Offline bonke

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Has anyone sent one or more silver God of Wealth medals to NGC for grading, requesting recognition of the variety? 

I presently have one medal which was submitted to NCS at the ANA show in Sacramento.  I do not know if it is one of the three recognized varieties or something else.  I certainly did not ask for variety recognition.  Should I do so now?  Has NGC recognized these varieties? 

Recently, NCS conserved and NGC authenticated, graded and slabbed a God of Wealth medal for me without variety recognition.  Should this be resubmitted to them to correct the label? 

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 it has been started- JonSoldIt has revised an ebay listing to call  one "Clouded Claw"

Offline Pandora

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it has been started- JonSoldIt has revised an ebay listing to call  one "Clouded Claw"

...and he changed the price from 1049 BIN to 1199 BIN/BO too :-)

Last sold prices in investment grade:

Clear Claw pf69 - 1600
Clouded Claw pf69 - 1750
Super Clouded Claw pf68 - 1850

Offline badon

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Has anyone sent one or more silver God of Wealth medals to NGC for grading, requesting recognition of the variety?  

...

Recently, NCS conserved and NGC authenticated, graded and slabbed a God of Wealth medal for me without variety recognition.  Should this be resubmitted to them to correct the label?  

I am working on getting recognition now. I'm going to be mentioning some things about NGC variety recognition in my next article, which will hopefully be published today. As far as resubmitting, I think that would add value to your coins, and since it's not expensive, it would probably be worth it.

It seems like things are going like this:

1. variety discovery
2. attentive readers push prices up immediately, and clean out the market
3. dealers start noticing, and they begin buying up coins, so prices go up again
4. the rest of the buyers in the market are made aware by the dealer marketing, prices rise
5. writers recognize the variety in publications like the pricepedia, krause catalog, etc, and prices rise
6. NGC recognizes variety, everyone knows about the variety because it's attached to the coin, prices rise faster than in all the previous steps


Offline Pandora

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...and he changed the price from 1049 BIN to 1199 BIN/BO too :-)

Last sold prices in investment grade:

Clear Claw pf69 - 1600
Clouded Claw pf69 - 1750
Super Clouded Claw pf68 - 1850

Updated:
Last sold prices in investment grade:

Clear Claw pf69 - 1600
Clouded Claw pf69 - 1750
Super Clouded Claw pf68 - 1900

« Last Edit: March 31, 2011, 06:24:04 PM by Pandora »

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Updated:
Last sold prices in investment grade:

Clear Claw pf69 - 1600
Clouded Claw pf69 - 1750
Super Clouded Claw pf68 - 1900



Is 68 considered an "investment grade"?

Offline badon

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For such a rare coin, yes. The price gains have proven that, too.

Offline Grip

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Great work guys! Wonder if there are variants in the 87 God of Longevity Medal....

Offline badon

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I have actually been researching that. Nothing to report so far for the god of longevity.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Updates:  4/6/11

Total coin researched:  26 clear + 11 clouded + 12 super =  49
* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)


clear:  26/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 1,327
* % of 2430 = 1,289
* % of 2000 = 1,061


clouded:  11/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 561
* % of 2430 = 546
* % of 2000 = 449


super:  12/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 612
* % of 2430 = 595
* % of 2000 = 490

Offline badon

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This is interesting, it looks like the clouded and super clouded may have the same mintage. The maximum mintage estimate for both is only around 600 coins, which doesn't include grade rarity or losses due to melting. Even the clear claw only has a little over 1000.

This is a very rare coin, and it's going to be quite hard to assemble a 69 set of all three types. Has anybody done it yet?

Offline Pandora

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Great work PandaOrLunar!

Is it possible to provide a NGC population breakup among the 3 varieties? That should give us clue towards the grade rarity.

This is getting very interesting.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

Offline badon

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* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)

It looks like about 70% earn a 69 grade. If it were broken down by type, we might get a better idea whether all the types hold to that ratio, or if one of the varieties were mishandled more than the others to create some additional grade rarity.

Assuming all 3 varieties have the same 70% ratio of 69 coins, then I estimate 69 grade populations as follows (assuming no melting or other losses, and that high grade specimens were not submitted for grading preferentially):

clear:  18/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 925
* % of 2430 = 898
* % of 2000 = 740


clouded:  8/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 391
* % of 2430 = 381
* % of 2000 = 313


super:  8/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 427
* % of 2430 = 415
* % of 2000 = 342

Since there probably were losses due to melting and other reasons, and that high grade specimens were probably submitted preferentially, I think it's safe to say that the actual number of surviving coins is lower than these figures - but nobody knows yet just how much lower.

Offline badon

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* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

Looks like my numbers are going to have to be adjusted. The clear and clouded are more common than my numbers in a 69 grade, while the super clouded is much rarer in a 69 grade.

Offline Pandora

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Thank you PandaOrLunar.

The total graded numbers do not add up. We should have total 54 69s.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Thank you PandaOrLunar.

The total graded numbers do not add up. We should have total 54 69s.

The 54 is from NGC census report.  The 35 is from my research.

Offline Pandora

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The 54 is from NGC census report.  The 35 is from my research.

Got it, thanks!

The clouded has only 3 graded in your research. It could mean that clouded is the newest variety to hit US, and it is just being getting graded.

Offline Pandora

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Looks like my numbers are going to have to be adjusted. The clear and clouded are more common than my numbers in a 69 grade, while the super clouded is much rarer in a 69 grade.

Badon, looks like clouded is rarer in 69 grade than the super. It could be that clouded coins are hitting NGC only recently.

Offline badon

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* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

clear all grades: 26/49 = 53.1%
* % of 2500 = 1,327
* % of 2430 = 1,289
* % of 2000 = 1,061

clouded all grades:  11/49 = 22.4%
* % of 2500 = 561
* % of 2430 = 546
* % of 2000 = 449

super all grades:  12/49 = 24.5%
* % of 2500 = 612
* % of 2430 = 595
* % of 2000 = 490

clear 69:  17/22 = 77.3%
* % of 2500 = 1025
* % of 2430 = 996
* % of 2000 = 820

clouded 69:  1/3= 33.3%
* % of 2500 = 187
* % of 2430 = 182
* % of 2000 = 150

super 69:  5/10 = 50%
* % of 2500 = 306
* % of 2430 = 298
* % of 2000 = 245

I don't think there's enough data to be sure of the 69 grade numbers yet, but in this early data, it appears that all coins are much rarer in 69 grade than in other grades, and that the clouded and super clouded are the rarest. With more information, these numbers keep getting smaller, even though they're already tiny.

Right now, it appears only 150 people in the world will be able to assemble a set of all 3 coins in a 69 grade. Remember that if there were losses to melting and other causes, which is pretty much guaranteed, these numbers could be cut in half...or more. Also, these numbers assume that high grade coins were not submitted preferentially, which is certainly not correct. That will cut the numbers down even more.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Updates:  4/8/11

Total coin researched:  37 clear + 32 clouded + 12 super =  81
* 67 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear (33):    one 66, four 67, four 68, twenty-four 69
  > clouded (24):  two 65, eight 66, six 67, four 68, four 69
  > super (10):    five 68, five 69
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)
  > clear (4)
  > clouded (8)
  > super (2)


clear:  37/81 = 45.7%
* % of 2500 = 1,142
* % of 2430 = 1,110
* % of 2000 =   914


clouded:  32/81 = 39.5%
* % of 2500 = 988
* % of 2430 = 960
* % of 2000 = 790


super:  12/81 = 14.8%
* % of 2500 = 370
* % of 2430 = 360
* % of 2000 = 296

Offline badon

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If you calculate the percentages for both raw and graded, we can get an idea of how accurate the information is. Also, can you calculate the 69 grade populations too?

Offline dooney

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Great work guys! Wonder if there are variants in the 87 God of Longevity Medal....

I owned one '87 God of Longevity medal and I can verify that it was a clouded claw variety. I remember it because it was very obvious and looked sort of strange to me. Unfortunately, that coin has been sold. :(

Dooney

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Offline Grip

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I've seen a lot of all varieties popping up recently. For a rare mintage, too much....

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Agreed, too many...I wonder who gains from all the hype....WAIT !   Hey Badon, you stamping these things out in your basement?! :ohmy:

Offline badon

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This always happens when prices rise suddenly. More coins come to the market. For example, I counted 4 1995 1 oz gold proof pandas that came to the market after one of them hit $18,700. The mintage of that coin is only 555.

The coins you're seeing are not "too much". They're an opportunity to buy that will end once they're all in collector hands. Just like the 2000 mirror pandas, which were plentiful for a while, and not really all that rare. But, now that they're gone, it costs a fortune to get one.

The same thing will happen to these coins that you think have "too much" supply. Last time somebody thought there was too much supply, they only cost $160. Now they cost 10 times that much, and it's only been a year. Next year, they may cost 10 times more again...

$18,000 for a coin with a mintage of only a few hundred is not a lot of money. The 1995 1 oz gold proof panda has been much less popular with the dominant Chinese buyers than coins like the God of War & Wealth. I guarantee you those will cost you 5 figures sometime in the next few years.

Offline badon

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By the way, I remember when people were looking at the clear claw coin at the same website, when it was $975...and they thought that was too much. It sat, and sat, and finally somebody bought it. That was only about 2 months ago, and now the smart owner has nearly doubled his money :)

Offline badon

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Updates:  4/8/11

Total coin researched:  37 clear + 32 clouded + 12 super =  81
* 67 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear (33):    one 66, four 67, four 68, twenty-four 69
  > clouded (24):  two 65, eight 66, six 67, four 68, four 69
  > super (10):    five 68, five 69
* 14 from raw (There is a possibility that some of these raw could have been submitted for grading after.)
  > clear (4)
  > clouded (8)
  > super (2)

Note, the total mintage is unknown. Planned mintage figures of 2000 and 2500 have been reported, and an actual mintage of 2430 has been reported. I'm betting the 2430 actual mintage figure is the correct one. Many of these coins were probably melted or damaged, so the actual surviving numbers are likely to be lower than these estimates!

clear claw all grades: 37/81 = 45.7%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 1141
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 1110
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 914

clear claw 69: 24/33 graded = 72.7%
* Population out of 1141 mintage = 830
* Population out of 1110 mintage = 807
* Population out of 914 mintage = 665



clouded claw all grades: 32/81 = 39.5%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 988
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 960
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 790

clouded claw 69: 4/24 graded = 17%
* Population out of 988 total = 165
* Population out of 960 total = 160
* Population out of 790 total = 132



super clouded claw all grades: 12/81 = 14.8%
* Mintage out of 2500 total = 370
* Mintage out of 2430 total = 360
* Mintage out of 2000 total = 296

super clouded claw 69: 5/10 graded = 50%
* Population out of 370 total = 185
* Population out of 360 total = 180
* Population out of 296 total = 148

Summary:

Mintage estimates, based on 2430 actual total mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 1110
clouded claw: 960
super clouded claw: 360


69 grade population estimates, based on 2430 total actual mintage for all varieties combined:
clear claw: 807
clouded claw: 160, 5 times rarer than the clear claw
super clouded claw: 180, 4.5 times rarer than the clear claw


These newly calculated numbers are interesting. The super clouded claw has the greatest mintage rarity, at 360. But, the clouded claw has a slightly greater grade rarity, even though it has almost 3 times the mintage.

The relative rarity between the varieties in a 69 grade is interesting for the purpose of pricing coins. In an investment quality 69 grade, the clouded claw is 5 times rarer than the clear claw, and the super clouded claw is 4.5 times rarer. That implies that if, for example, an investment grade clear claw costs $1200, then a clouded claw should cost something like 5 times more ($6000), and a super clouded claw should cost something like 4.5 times more ($5400).

In actual practice, those kinds of relative price guesses don't work out very well, but they are a good starting basis. The biggest reason they don't work out very well is because the market isn't mature yet. For example, if a coin isn't popular, it will sell for much less. If it's very popular, it could sell for much more. And, at least at first, most of the action is concentrated on the key coin.

Each time we update these numbers, the clouded claw and the super clouded claw keep switching places for being the rarest in a 69 investment grade. But, the clear claw always remains as the most common, both in terms of mintage rarity, and grade rarity.

I'm sure these numbers will be adjusted more in the future as more data is collected, thanks to PandaOrLunar. Each time the figures get adjusted, the overall relative rarities change less and less, which means we're getting closer to actual truth of which coins are the rarest.
« Last Edit: April 22, 2011, 12:21:59 PM by badon »

Offline Grip

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Just listed today on rare coin collector and -Gone at 2100.00!!! (I know underbidder didn't buy it)..... :laugh:
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 05:56:55 PM by Grip »

Offline badon

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I think a coin with an estimated population of 180 in 69 grade should sell for a lot more than $2100. If we go by the figure of 4.5 times the clear claw price, then it ought to be a $5400 coin RIGHT NOW. Since the clear claw is ALSO ridiculously underpriced, I think it's safe to double those numbers to get an estimate of what the likely fair valuation could be within the next 6 months to 1 year.

You think it sounds crazy for these to go up that much in 1 year? Really? Well, hah, don't forget that they were ALL selling for $160 last year!

The clouded and super clouded coins in 69 grade are probably going to hit the $10,000 level fast, if the supply and buying continues. If the supply dries up, then the gains will probably seem to stop, until a future sale shocks upward to the higher prices.

Offline Grip

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I agree. It was priced too cheap-thats why it sold so fast. I guarantee the next listing will be way higher. Kirin has already increased the "raw" clear claw at his store to 2375.00. Pandora got a good buy a few weeks ago as this discovery was unfolding-go girl.... :thumbup:
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 06:16:07 PM by Grip »

Offline badon

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Which store? If the clear claw is $2375, then the super clouded ought to be $10,687.50 at 4.5 times the price of the clear claw, with both coins in a 69 grade.

Offline Grip

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Offline Pandora

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What! I missed a Super Clouded Claw!! That too a 69 at only 2100? I need those drones keeping an eye on listings... :crying:  :001_tt1:  :cursing:  :glare:  :mad:  :ohmy:

Offline Pandora

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I agree. It was priced too cheap-thats why it sold so fast. I guarantee the next listing will be way higher. Kirin has already increased the "raw" clear claw at his store to 2375.00. Pandora got a good buy a few weeks ago as this discovery was unfolding-go man.... :thumbup:

I really need 69s. I got clear and clouded claws in raw. Lets see how they grade.

Whoever got that super in 69, luckiest man!!

Offline Grip

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What! I missed a Super Clouded Claw!! That too a 69 at only 2100? I need those drones keeping an eye on listings... :crying:  :001_tt1:  :cursing:  :glare:  :mad:  :ohmy:
Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the discovery unfolds -and these medals as well ...
« Last Edit: April 21, 2011, 07:00:59 PM by Grip »

Offline Pandora

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Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the story unfolds and so these as well ...

That is true for future. But as of now, I need the super to complete the set...I am sure it will turn up sooner or later.

Drones - those un-manned planes keeping an eye on stuff :-)

Offline badon

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Drones??? Looks like we could buy any of the varieties and do well. We have three population types- like the 99 pandas. Jury still out as to which 99 is rarest as the discovery unfolds -and these medals as well ...

I think you mean 1992 1 oz silver proof pandas?

Offline Grip

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I meant the 99 gold SD,LD no serif, LD serif... 

Offline badon

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I really need 69s. I got clear and clouded claws in raw. Lets see how they grade.

Whoever got that super in 69, luckiest man!!

69's are being hoarded from the market. Coins are getting harder to find in a 69 grade because when it comes time to sell, people aren't selling their 69's. As our numbers show for the god of war & wealth, they are very, very, very rare in 69 grade, especially the clouded and super clouded varieties.

Offline badon

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I can't believe I forgot to mention losses to melting! That's important - we don't know how many of these were melted. They are big, heavy hunks of silver that were nearly worthless until this year. They had been ignored even as other coins were making huge gains, so I suspect a significant fraction of them were melted.

That means the already very low mintage and population estimates are actually lower due to losses from melting (and damage, which isn't accounted-for either).

Offline badon

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I added a note to my latest calculations that mentions that the estimates are probably too high, because coins were lost to melting and damage.

Offline badon

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PandaOrLunar, do you have any updated statistics for us?

I noticed that an ungraded clouded claw coin sold for $1395, and after that one sold, another one got grabbed that was listed for $1199. Since that coin so far looks to be as rare as the super clouded, according to our numbers, I think our numbers need updating. I don't think it's really as rare as the super clouded. The price is definitely going up though.

Offline Grip

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 For a rare issue coin (even with 3 types) I'm seeing these things in all varieties flood the market of late. I realize the ebb and flow and discovery process, but if these are that rare, how do the dealers have so many to unload at the same time!! You would think they would release them gradually as prices move up. I think the 87 3.3 tael  God of Longevity is truly more rare as you do not see these often, and the last PF69 went out over 2300.00 on heavy biding. The only one currently listed for sale is a raw coin being sold by kirin. He keeps increasing the price every day and is currently asking 2995.00.    
 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=230592372760&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 07:17:07 PM by Grip »

Offline Grip

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Also, we have to consider a coins eye appeal as well as rarity. The God of War/Wealth is an angry looking man. The God of Longevity is pleasing to the eye and reminds us of a caring overseer. The coins share the same shield surrounded by the Dragon (King) and Phoenix (Queen)...

Offline PandaOrLunar

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PandaOrLunar, do you have any updated statistics for us?

I noticed that an ungraded clouded claw coin sold for $1395, and after that one sold, another one got grabbed that was listed for $1199. Since that coin so far looks to be as rare as the super clouded, according to our numbers, I think our numbers need updating. I don't think it's really as rare as the super clouded. The price is definitely going up though.

No, I do not have any updates.  My daytime job is working me overtime.

Offline badon

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For a rare issue coin (even with 3 types) I'm seeing these things in all varieties flood the market of late. I realize the ebb and flow and discovery process, but if these are that rare, how do the dealers have so many to unload at the same time!! You would think they would release them gradually as prices move up.

Did you forget about the 50 coin hoard? It takes a while to sell those, especially after prices have risen. Also, I'm pretty sure you're not seeing the super clouded claw flood the market. There are very few of those that have appeared.

I just checked with some people who own portions of the 50 coin hoard, and there are still 30 coins that have not been brought to the market yet. That means that only 20 of them are available to the market now, or have been recently. I have not seen that many coins sell yet, so I'm pretty sure we're still working through that initial 20 coins.

It's one reason why I think they're such a good investment - most people are thinking exactly like you are, and not really understanding that this plentiful supply is a gift from the gods (the Chinese ones), and it won't last - not at these prices.

I think the 87 3.3 tael  God of Longevity is truly more rare as you do not see these often, and the last PF69 went out over 2300.00 on heavy biding. The only one currently listed for sale is a raw coin being sold by kirin. He keeps increasing the price every day and is currently asking 2995.00.   
 http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=230592372760&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

The 1987 god of longevity has a lower mintage. It is around 1300 to 1500, if I remember correctly. I do not think an ungraded specimen is worth $3k, but then again, this coin is quite rare. The reason why I don't talk about it as much is because it's not underpriced like the god of war and wealth is. It's rare, and it's expensive, just like it should be.

Also, we have to consider a coins eye appeal as well as rarity. The God of War/Wealth is an angry looking man. The God of Longevity is pleasing to the eye and reminds us of a caring overseer. The coins share the same shield surrounded by the Dragon (King) and Phoenix (Queen)...

The god of longevity is a masterpiece of art. No argument there! The god of war and wealth is kind of a macho symbol that everybody loves. I'm not sure either is better. Young people prefer the god of war and wealth. Old people prefer the god of longevity. Both represent people's hopes, at different times in their lives. You really need to have both, in my opinion :)

Offline badon

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No, I do not have any updates.  My daytime job is working me overtime.

Are you keeping track of the data? If not, maybe you can provide sources for the data you already have, and then we can start tracking new data here, without double counting the ones you've already counted.

Offline dobedo

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No, I do not have any updates.  My daytime job is working me overtime.
Maybe you need to consider a job that's more fun and requires no overtime? Does coin dealing sound more appealing? Ha ha :)

Offline badon

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Two of the super clouded claw have hit the market and been sold very quickly - probably within minutes in both cases. The first one sold for $2100, the second sold for $2150. Both were probably underpriced by $1000 or more. I think the coin could earn a much higher price.

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Are you keeping track of the data? If not, maybe you can provide sources for the data you already have, and then we can start tracking new data here, without double counting the ones you've already counted.

There is no secret sources.  I watch online auctions and sites.  Friends email me information.  Once I get a NGC number, I search that certification number in the NGC database manually starting at 001 until end of the sequence.

Something smell here.  Take a look at this same NGC 3452783-010.

http://www.rarecoincollector.net/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=36&products_id=5841
* According to their "mix" pictures and description, it is a Super.

http://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/CertResults.aspx?CertNumber=3452783-010
* According to NGC pictures, it is a Clear.

Offline badon

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Oh yes, I know you're getting your info from public sources. I just don't want to count the same coin twice.

Offline Pandaguy

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That Rarecoincollector seller used a different reverse side in their photo. I have been telling you in my recent posts about this sellers questionable activitities and VERY poor customer service as I have experienced first-hand. SEE MY POST ENTITLED Bad Experience With Rarecoincollector Online Store

 Buyer beware!!!!

Offline badon

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Something smell here.  Take a look at this same NGC 3452783-010.

http://www.rarecoincollector.net/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=36&products_id=5841
* According to their "mix" pictures and description, it is a Super.

http://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/CertResults.aspx?CertNumber=3452783-010
* According to NGC pictures, it is a Clear.

They're using stock photos:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2734.0

Offline Pandaguy

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They're using stock photos:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2734.0

Badon, thanks for the link to my topic. In addition to using stock photos, they send the wrong coins and do not make good on their mistake; especially when they mistakenly sell a coin too low. In my case, they simply did not send me the proper coin and then sold the proper coin for a higher price to a different buyer. I will NEVER buy from them again! As I have mentioned about this seller: BUYER BEWARE!!!!!

Offline PandaOrLunar

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Oh yes, I know you're getting your info from public sources. I just don't want to count the same coin twice.

Here is my NGC data.  Hope we can keep it update online.  The last 2 (2764099-012 clear, 2764117-053 clear) are the latest.

Offline badon

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Found some more: NGC-3493608, 025 to 034.

025 PF 68 UC clouded
026 PF 67 UC clouded
027 PF 69 UC clear
028 PF 68 UC clear
029 PF 69 UC clear
030 PF 69 UC clear
031 PF 69 UC clear
032 PF 68 UC clouded
033 PF 69 UC clouded
034 PF 69 UC clouded

totals

69 clouded: 2
68 clouded: 2
67 clouded: 1

69 clear: 4
68 clear: 1

Offline badon

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* 35 from NGC (Census Total Graded 99:  two graded 65, eight 66, thirteen 67, twenty-two 68, fifty-four 69)
  > clear:    one 67, four 68, seventeen 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 68, one 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

Please double check these numbers. I'm quite sure this isn't right somewhere, either in the calculations, or in the coin counts. I'm not sure what all the numbers mean.

Part of the uncertainty comes from not knowing which coins each of these are. I think ungraded coins are included in the figures, which is probably skewing results somehow. We should probably redo the numbers with only graded coins, so we don't double count anything. We can work off of unique serial numbers, so we know what's what.

I will revisit this later when I've got more time. I may use this project as a test for the coin compendium, to see if it can automatically generate these numbers for us, without needing to do it manually.

These numbers should be considered to be off by a little bit until I take the time to verify each coin, or make the coin compendium do it for me.

* 45 from NGC (Census Total Graded 137:  two graded 65, eight 66, fourteen 67, twenty-eight 68, eighty-five 69)
  > clear:    one 67, five 68, twenty-one 69
  > clouded:  one 66, one 67, three 68, three 69
  > super:    five 68, five 69

clear mintage estimate, all grades: 27/59 = 45.8% (was 26/49 = 53.1%)
* For total mintage 2500 = 1144 (was 1327)
* For total mintage 2430 = 1112 (was 1289)
* For total mintage 2000 = 915 (was 1061)

clear population estimate in 69 grade: 21/27 = 77.8% (was 17/22 = 77.3%)
* For mintage estimate of 1144 X 77.8% = 890 (was 1025)
* For mintage estimate of 1112 X 77.8% = 865 (was 996)
* For mintage estimate of 915 X 77.8% = 712 (was 820)

clouded mintage estimate, all grades: 8/59 = 13.6% (was 11/49 = 22.4%)
* For total mintage 2500 = 339 (was 561)
* For total mintage 2430 = 329 (was 546)
* For total mintage 2000 = 271 (was 449)

clouded population estimate in 69 grade: 3/8 = 37.5% (was 1/3 = 33.3%)
* For mintage estimate of 339 = 127 (was 187)
* For mintage estimate of 329 = 123 (was 182)
* For mintage estimate of 271 = 102 (was 150)

super mintage estimate, all grades:  10/59 = 16.9% (was 12/49 = 24.5%)
* For total mintage 2500 = 424 (was 612)
* For total mintage 2430 = 412 (was 595)
* For total mintage 2000 = 339 (was 490)

super population estimate in 69 grade: 5/10 = 50%
* For mintage estimate of 424 = 212 (was 306)
* For mintage estimate of 412 = 206 (was 298)
* For mintage estimate of 339 = 170 (was 245)


Offline Pandora

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I count total:

6 Clouded PF69s
5 Super Clouded PF69s

So super clouded seems to be the rarest in mintage and high grade as well.

Offline badon

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If you can get the NGC certification numbers for them, that would help a bunch. I'm going to have them entered into the Coin Compendium as a test, and hopefully that will be able to easily tell us which coin is the rarest.

Offline Pandora

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Badon, the count is from the NGC number from PandaOrLunar's post and your post above.

Offline badon

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Ah, I see. So, it looks like I'll need to go through PandaOrLunar's data. There's new stuff there that's not included in those calculations I just did.

Offline Pandora

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Looks like RareCoinCollector is pulling nearly 100% PF69 from their submissions.

NGC 3452783 - 5 out of 5 (100%)
NGC 3453498 - 6 out of 7 (86%)
NGC 3453499 - 7 out of 7 (100%)
NGC 3487417 - 2 out of 2 (100%)

Total - 20 out of 21 (95%)

Offline shuttlespace

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The official mintage 2500 of this coin makes absolutely no sense if you look at the frequency of this coin shown up in the market. The 1989 New York Expo coin which has a mintage of 4000 shows less frequent than this coin. I would guess that this coin has been restruct multiple times after 1989 and all varieties we are discussing here are the product of the restruct.
The actually mintage should be much higher than 5000 considering how frequent this coin is on the market.

Offline badon

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No, that is not right. Estimating mintages based on populations does not work over short term time scales. It is already known that the current market availability of these coins is coming from at least one hoard of them. I believe the actual surviving mintage is less than 2500, considering the fact that nearly all of the coins coming to the market are coins from the hoard.

This is a common mistake buyers make, when they assume plentiful availability will last long term, based on a short term observation. That's why PandaCollector's panda population estimates are based on many years of data collection.

Offline badon

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I should add that the coin was never popular. Just last year they were selling for only $160 each. I would be surprised to learn the coins have been restruck. I have not examined that possibility in detail, but so far I haven't seen any differences in the varieties that lead me to believe they were made at different times or using different methods.

I'll take a closer look at them when I get a chance to see a few different specimens side by side, but I don't think my opinion will change unless I discover something compelling about the dies used to make the coins.

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As you know, I've been leaning towards Shuttlespace's position for a while now, not only because of the high numbers suddenly available, but because three varieties just doesn't seem to make sense for so small a run, we don't see it in other coins to this extent, do we? It would go a long way in explaining things.

Offline badon

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The reason why we see 3 varieties in a small mintage coin is because of its size. It takes a lot of striking pressure to mint a large size coin, which wears out the dies faster. I have seen evidence of die wear on all 3 varieties. The dies get replaced in order to keep the quality of the strike high.

In addition to that, it's possible all 3 dies were running coins simultaneously to speed up production. That means that the planned mintage may have been 2500, but fewer were made with the 3 dies already prepared for production. I believe this is actually what happened.

One reason why I think this is because of the difficulty in obtaining the clouded claw in high grades. If I remember correctly, only about 1 in 4 earns a 69 grade, compared to 3 out of 4 for the clear claw, and 1 in 2 for the super clouded claw. That indicates to me the possibility that 3 different people were operating preses for each die separately, and simultaneously, and they each had different experience, care and handling techniques, etc.

Since the clear claw is the most common variety, especially in high grades, I would guess that the most experienced press operator was producing the clear claw coins. He produced more of them, faster, and at higher quality than the other clouded and super clouded dies.

Of course, I'm just guessing. I don't know what equipment, employees, or operating schedule the mint was using in 1989, but I think my guess is reasonable.

There could be an even simpler explanation - the coins coming out of the clear claw die were closer to the press operator than the other 2 coin dies, so he didn't have to reach out for the coin and slide it around as much to get a grip on it after striking.

There are many possible explanations for what we're seeing, but so far I haven't been able to come up with an explanation that involves restrikes. Overminting could have occurred, but since we're only seeing 50 unsold coins that probably came from an original distributor, that pretty much rules out the idea that the mint would decide to make extra coins when they were already having trouble selling the ones they had.

Once all of these coins are in tight collector hands, you'll start to see how rare they truly are. Remember the 2000 gold mirror pandas? They used to be plentiful, and now you can't buy one unless somebody is kind enough to offer one to you. They're being tightly held.

There has been more than 1 hoard of the god of war & wealth come to the market, about 1 year apart in time, so that reinforces my belief that they did not sell well, and that the coins we're seeing are hoard coins. In between hoards coming to market, they appeared infrequently, just as would be expected for a low mintage coin.

In other words, today's availability of these coins at prices under $10,000 is a gift. Greeting it with unfounded suspicion is just going to cause you to miss out on this opportunity. Everyone who had a chance to buy them last year for $160 is kicking themselves now because you have to pay 10 times as much only one year later. That should be your indicator of how rare these are. When prices rise that dramatically, it's because once they're gone, they're hard to get.

Offline Pandora

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I have all 3 varieties, and I am in agreement with Badon. Most of the coins in market last few months I have seen - came from 2 original sources suggesting the hoarding.

Offline badon

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I think Pandora is cornering the market on super clouded claw coins :)

Offline Pandora

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I wish! They are very very difficult to find! :-)

Offline badon

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So, if they're up to about $5000 each, you only need to buy 10 and the job is done :)

Offline Pandora

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Badon, only you have the resources to find and fund the cornering of this coin. I am happy with 1 each. :-)

Offline badon

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No comment :)

Offline shuttlespace

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3.3 oz is not a large sized coin. There are 11,000 minted for 1987 5oz silver panda and how many varies have we found out so far?
Again, the price for this medal and god of longetivity is much lower in China compared with price over here in US market. There's a reason why people only go after the legal tender but not the medals because theoretically China mint could struck them any time they want and Shanghai Mint, where these two medals were made, has a history of doing that.

Offline r3globe

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I am new to this field but I have been following this story from the beginning. I do respect everyone's opinion on this. Badon was able to support his opinion with detailed explanataions about the minting process. The latest attempt to refute it is not supported by any detailed explanations and/or specific examples /precendences. I would be very interested in more explanations, other that they are available now. Recent rise in their price will definitely explain why they are coming out of the woodwork.

Offline badon

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3.3 oz is not a large sized coin.

"Standard" fine precious metals trade size is 1 troy oz. Anything larger is "large" and anything smaller is "small".

There are 11,000 minted for 1987 5oz silver panda and how many varies have we found out so far?

There are 800 minted for 1996 12 oz silver panda, and there are 2 known varieties for it, with exactly the same type of frosting variance as we see in the 1989 god of war & wealth claw varieties. I'm sure if someone did the research, varieties could be found for the 1987 5 oz silver panda too, though I admit varieties as interesting as the clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw are quite rare.

Again, the price for this medal and god of longetivity is much lower in China compared with price over here in US market.

Who in China is selling them for cheaper than in the US market? If you know, I'm buying. The big dealers I normally contact when I need something hard to find aren't selling. They tell me that they are buying because their top customers are asking for medals, and they don't have any in stock.

There's a reason why people only go after the legal tender but not the medals because theoretically China mint could struck them any time they want and Shanghai Mint, where these two medals were made, has a history of doing that.

There are known restrikes for some coins. So far, whenever we've looked, we've been able to distinguish them from the originals. It's REALLY hard to do the same thing twice, even when you're the master. It's no wonder fakes are still detectable, even to this day with all the technology out there. The old fashioned minting technology can't be duplicated perfectly, even when done officially by the same mint.

In any case, this practice has stopped because it hurts their business to do that. So far, the only coins known to have been restruck are all for German customers, and medals are not on the list.

Americans make an enthusiastic distinction between medals and legal tender coins because America's history does not include devaluation of currency, because the history is so short. But, even in America, if you look in the right places, you can find instances where medals are quite important and valuable.

For example, unofficial territorial gold, colonial coinage, and even copies of foreign coinage, can all be extraordinarily valuable to American collectors - all of those were minted at a time when both official and unofficial precious metal currency was accepted amongst American citizens. The only things that aren't valuable is devalued paper money.

America has very little experience with devaluation of paper money. China invented paper and paper money, so it's no surprise that they're ahead of the USA on this. At first the medals were neglected, but now they value the medals just like I said they would (I predicted this).

Official medals of China are where the hot money is right now. There are other hot coins, of course, but medals are an entire undervalued sector where people are making a ton of money. You can rely on your experience with the (mostly) very different American market, or you can trust me that I'm going to steer you in the right direction.

There's a lot of good reasons to believe what I'm telling you.

Offline Pandora

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The 68 looks much better in photos.

Lets vote:

Within 1 month:

A. Both will sell - 68 will sell first.
B. Both will sell - 69 will sell first.
C. Only 68 will sell.
D. Only 69 will sell.

Offline badon

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Better look closer, I think the 68 is truly a 68 because it looks like it has a white spot above the ribbons. The other 69 one looks dirty for some reason, and I'm sure it wasn't conserved. It got a 69 though, and I don't see any white spots.

Offline Pandora

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Yes, that is why it is 68 and the price I think reflects it. But overall - the mirror surface, frosting and fields look much vibrant in 68.

Offline badon

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The 68 looks much better in photos.

Lets vote:

Within 1 month:

A. Both will sell - 68 will sell first.
B. Both will sell - 69 will sell first.
C. Only 68 will sell.
D. Only 69 will sell.

That's a tough call. The 68 looks nice, but has a white spot, and is also much cheaper. The 69 doesn't look so nice in photos, but probably looks better in person, has no white spots, and cost a LOT more.

I'd say they have equal chances of selling. The 68 is quite cheap compared to the 69, and nobody else is willing to part with their 69's...unless Pandora is still selling - Is yours available still? I think you priced it very cheaply, around $4500 if I remember correctly.

Offline Pandora

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After your advise, I thought twice about it, and decided to keep the 69 for a while. I was happy with the $4,800 asking price though. I think $6,400 is quite high at this time. May be he is charging more for the pink/purple toning.

Offline badon

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I think he's charging more because there's no competition, or he just wants to keep the coin. It'll be worth more later, for sure. He probably saw the other coin get listed, and decided to one-up him.

When the market heats up later in the year, you'll see people paying top prices again just to get the coin. I don't know if there's enough buyers to get $6450 price tag out of a coin that was worth $160 a year ago, but it's not really all that unusual if it does sell at that price. It's very, very rare.

The 1995 micro date panda was about the same price at $100 only a few months ago. Now, it's over $2000. So huge price gains are possible, and they happen pretty often. Plus, the super clouded claw is a lot rarer than the 1995 micro date panda too.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Offline Pandora

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I think both coins need the right kind of buyer. And most probably that buyer would want the best...so probably 69 will go first, but may be after some price negotiation.

Offline dobedo

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E. Neither will sell within a month ... not at asked prices anyway.
We're in our annual summer slow-down, remember?

Offline badon

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I think you may be right. I think they will not sell until later in the year, and then they'll sell for either higher prices, or everyone will wish they had bought them when they had the chance. Seriously.

Offline Pandora

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I have the hunch that as soon as the 68's seller's cash-flow improves, he will with-draw the coin from the market. Just a hunch :-)

Offline badon

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Yeah, super clouded coins are worth holding if you don't need cash. I think we'll be shocked at what they're worth once PeterPanda at PandaAmerica gets NGC to certify them.

Offline catfury

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Maybe, It is NOT about the clouds...:-)
« Reply #140 on: May 25, 2011, 11:57:45 PM »
Hello, I am a new forum user just to say Hi first.
I found a post by Chinese coin collector dated back in 2008, discussing about the varieties of God of wealth silver medal. Take some time a read it carefully... I personally believe the result is more than the clouds...

A picture is more than a thousand words... can you see the difference found by Chinese people ? they called it "First Version" and "Second Version".. 

Hints:
1. Look at the Chinese Characters on Top of the Reverse ( it is the year in chinese, it could be the Only most important difference that separates two varieties)
2. Look at the Chinese Characters(font type used) in rounded circles (the circle itself is different)
3. there is actually more pictures I found but I think it is enough

Thanks for reading.. See you all soon..

Offline Pandora

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This is very interesting catfury! Thanks for sharing this info on this forum. All the ones listed on eBay are the First Version as per your pictures.

Offline Pandora

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Is that photo of an actual coin of the Second Version? Are there really no characters on the obverse (front side) in the 16 squares? And that is a very nicely toned coin :-)

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Hey-I got a Five Toed, Mirror, Raised Shield, Lettered, Super Clear but Slightly Clouded Claw ! How much is THAT puppy worth?  From the fourth limited run of 10,000 !
  :001_tt2:

Hey Badon, what new changes are ya gonna stamp out in your garage next run?  :biggrin:
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 12:41:07 AM by Underbidder »

Offline catfury

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Pandora, the "purple"ish medal in the picture is a different medal, not toned.. it is 1993 version of God of Wealth Bronze medal. :-)   

Offline Pandora

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That Bronze medal looks very good.

Offline Pandora

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Hey-I got a Five Toed, Mirror, Raised Shield, Lettered, Super Cumulus Cloud ! How much is THAT puppy worth?  From the fourth limited run of 10,000 !
  :001_tt2:

Hey Badon, what new changes are ya gonna stamp out in your garage next run?  :biggrin:

Hmmm...I didn't get the "Cumulus" in Super Cumulus Cloud...:-)

Offline Pandora

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Catfury, can you tell us more on the Second Version - like when was it minted, what mintage, etc.

Underbidder

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Ok, changed it.  See, it's a Sub-type of Cloud, see? A Variety...   Never mind.  Gone.

And Oh! I neglected to specify the Metal! Silver, bronze... Any more?  Cupro-nickel?  Copper?  Badon?  Whatcha working with next, hmmm?  :biggrin:

Offline badon

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Those are all clear claw varieties. We thought that was the most common one, but now we have many new types we have to figure out! I have never seen any of those but the most common one.

Offline Pandora

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I think catfury meant all those differences are between the First Version and Second Version - meaning 2 varieties for Clear Claw.

Offline Pandora

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Ok, changed it.  See, it's a Sub-type of Cloud, see? A Variety...   Never mind.  Gone.

And Oh! I neglected to specify the Metal! Silver, bronze... Any more?  Cupro-nickel?  Copper?  Badon?  Whatcha working with next, hmmm?  :biggrin:

There is this latest alloy China is using in Space Station. There was a rumor that they are going to strike all the panda coins in that alloy. It will never have white spots, never develop finger prints, luster will never change, will always grade 70, and not more than 1 variety can be produced. That would be a very interesting world, wouldn't it?  :biggrin:

Underbidder

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Hmm.. Sounds like you may just have something there, maybe they could call it... Oh, I dunno,...Platinum?  Badon, can your dies handle big platinum slugs?
 :thumbup:

Offline badon

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The design is completely different for that reverse-mirror version. My "fake alarms" are beeping.

Offline badon

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In particular, the reverse mirror specimen appears to have a much lower quality of workmanship. If it's not a fake, then it must be a pattern or something else experimental like that. I don't think the mint would bother making a low quality version like that after production started with a much better design.

Offline catfury

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From what I found out in the Chinese Post... the key version difference is the "Raised" or "Un-raised"  chinese text on top of the Reverse (the year in chinese)..  All "clouds" varieties are seemed to within the "Un-raised" text version (so far )

The mintage of the coin is about 2500... But the question is 2500 is the mintage total of BOTH versions or, there are actually restrikes and the mintage is not known..

I have no idea that if "first version (un-raised)" or the  "second version (Raised)" struck first... (they name it first and second but no one really knows the order..)

Offline Pandora

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In particular, the reverse mirror specimen appears to have a much lower quality of workmanship. If it's not a fake, then it must be a pattern or something else experimental like that. I don't think the mint would bother making a low quality version like that after production started with a much better design.

Badon which one you are calling the reverse mirror? The First or Second Version? The First Version has the "un-raised" writing and that is the one we all have seen in US.

Offline badon

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Notice the rims of the coins at the bottom of the reverse. On the reverse mirror version, they are not even complete. My opinion is that it is a fake, done as a poor copy of the genuine coin.

One thing it does reveal is that some of the odd details in the mirror around the claw is actually dragon whisker (or whatever that is) that was partly polished out on the normal coins. That is the only clue that makes me think it might be an early pattern or test piece, before production was approved, and higher quality dies were made.

Offline badon

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Badon which one you are calling the reverse mirror? The First or Second Version? The First Version has the "un-raised" writing and that is the one we all have seen in US.

The one I'm calling the "reverse mirror" is the one that's not like the ones we're used to. I believe it is 90% chance to be fake, and 10% chance to be a pattern.

Offline badon

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The mintage of the coin is about 2500... But the question is 2500 is the mintage total of BOTH versions or, there are actually restrikes and the mintage is not known..

So far, I have found no evidence that the coins have been restruck. All the specimens I have seen have come from only 3 dies, which correspond to the 3 known varieties of clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

If I found a 4th die, then I could examine it for evidence that it was made at a later date. So far, nothing. I have no reason to believe that the god of war & wealth was restruck.

There is an actual mintage figure of 2430 out there, which implies that nearly the entire mintage was struck from the beginning. The mint policy for restrikes is that they cannot exceed the planned mintage. So, if restrikes WERE made, there would only be 70 of them, and they would probably be much more valuable than the originals.

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God I love it when all these "rare" God of Wealth coin aficionados get excited, we could go on to a record number of uninterrupted posts here! Must be close to twenty now?

Offline Pandora

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God I love it when all these "rare" God of Wealth coin aficionados get excited, we could go on to a record number of uninterrupted posts here! Must be close to twenty now?

You have this knack of using these rare words like "cumulous",  "aficionados" :-)

Offline catfury

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The chance of "Raised" writings being a fake is unlikely, here is another picture to show the major difference.. not only the text on top, but the Big text in middle of the coin is totally reversed (mirrored).. me thinks.

i have more pictures..

again the original post was in 2008

Offline Pandora

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So far, I have found no evidence that the coins have been restruck. All the specimens I have seen have come from only 3 dies, which correspond to the 3 known varieties of clear claw, clouded claw, and super clouded claw.

If I found a 4th die, then I could examine it for evidence that it was made at a later date. So far, nothing. I have no reason to believe that the god of war & wealth was restruck.

There is an actual mintage figure of 2430 out there, which implies that nearly the entire mintage was struck from the beginning. The mint policy for restrikes is that they cannot exceed the planned mintage. So, if restrikes WERE made, there would only be 70 of them, and they would probably be much more valuable than the originals.

The Second version does look like poorly struck. Catfury, how old was the post you discovered? If it was years ago, chances of fake are small...

Underbidder

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Hey this dumb high tech ipadder thingy has a mind of it's own dang it!  
And hey, aren't rare words more valuable?  Heck, I'll "coin" some of my own, then.  :biggrin:
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 01:21:52 AM by Underbidder »

Offline catfury

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The only one "Raised" writing version I found that is being auctioned (in china at the moment, starting price 1100 US dollars)..
see the picture.. notice the red text in the middle?  I bet some of you are familiar with it ..

Underbidder

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Buzz kill.

For crying out loud, fellas, have any of you counted how many these are up for auction currently, and have been sold the past few months?
Has it not hit you yet that something is maybe off ?  How about when NGC finally grades the 4,000th one? At this rate...
How can this be called a scarce coin by almost any definition now? Ya, I heard, a hoard, all 2000 musta been released this year... Ya.. :confused1:
Seriously?

Offline badon

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The Second version does look like poorly struck. Catfury, how old was the post you discovered? If it was years ago, chances of fake are small...

That is the common wisdom, but is not always true. The best fakes I've ever seen were of the pagoda temple medals. I don't know when the fakes were made, but I've heard of them being anywhere from the 1990's to about 4 years ago, at the newest. At any of those times, the pagoda medals were almost worthless, aside from their silver value. You could have bought them for under $200 per set, and that was enough to make it worth the counterfeiters time to make very high quality fakes.

The version of this god of war & wealth that I think is fake appears to be using different techniques in die and planchet preparation, which bolsters my belief that it is fake. Also, I've never seen a low quality pattern before. They're usually made with just as much skill as the normal coins.

And, since the reverse mirror fake/variety was discovered in 2008, that does put it right around the time the some of the pagoda fakes were originally purchased. 2008 was a big year for fakes, because that's when the Chinese coin market began as we know it.

Offline badon

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The only one "Raised" writing version I found that is being auctioned (in china at the moment, starting price 1100 US dollars)..
see the picture.. notice the red text in the middle?  I bet some of you are familiar with it ..

That is not the correct packaging. Also, the rims of the coins at the bottom seem to have been done correctly on that specimen. Xu Hong deals with so many coins, often before it's known for sure what they are. I have seen plenty of good fakes fool honest dealers and collectors, so I'm still strongly suspicious that the coin is fake, regardless of the source. Seeing an "improved" version pretty much guarantees it's fake, and not a pattern or any other kind of test piece.

I give it a 5% chance of being genuine now.

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I like the fake one... Looks better made.  Wait, which one's the fake one again?  :confused1:

Offline badon

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Buzz kill.

For crying out loud, fellas, have any of you counted how many these are up for auction currently, and have been sold the past few months?
Has it not hit you yet that something is maybe off ?  How about when NGC finally grades the 4,000th one? At this rate...
How can this be called a scarce coin by almost any definition now? Ya, I heard, a hoard, all 2000 musta been released this year... Ya.. :confused1:
Seriously?

This has happened before. I remember the good old days when you could buy 1995 1 oz gold proof pandas for just a little over the gold value. Good supply does not necessarily mean anything other than opportunity to buy.

Offline badon

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I take that back about the other one being an improved version. It looks the same to me. The photo isn't quite good enough to see that immediately.

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So I'm confused again, is this then good or bad news for the restrike/ fake industry?  :confused1:
« Last Edit: May 26, 2011, 02:05:44 AM by Underbidder »

Underbidder

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Who do I talk to about having a special one made for me with three toes?  It's for a gift of an uncle of mine, see, who was a minesweeper during the war... :ohmy:

Offline badon

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It's nothing, I still think it's fake.

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So, Badon, let me get this right,  ... So you think the one that has a bazillion of 'em for sale on ebay lately is the real one, and the single ( rare) one for sale in China is somehow the fake?   :confused1:




 :lol:




Underbidder

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It's just too easy, jus ' given' ya a hard time!  :001_tongue:
Hey, the whole ebay Hoard came with nice shiny boxes and COAs, while the nicer one in China , ?

Plus the eBay hoard (which we know you stamped out in your garage) matches the 5 oz gold version way better. ( non mirror coins ). Mui Bueno!  :thumbup:

Offline badon

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So, Badon, let me get this right,  ... So you think the one that has a bazillion of 'em for sale on ebay lately is the real one, and the single ( rare) one for sale in China is somehow the fake?   :confused1:




 :lol:

Yes, that's right. Fakes can't dominate the market because they get noticed and weeded out very quickly. If the counterfeiter doesn't get greedy, and only puts a few out in the market, they can circulate for years without anyone realizing it is fake.

Offline badon

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The 68 looks much better in photos.

Lets vote:

Within 1 month:

A. Both will sell - 68 will sell first.
B. Both will sell - 69 will sell first.
C. Only 68 will sell.
D. Only 69 will sell.

E. Neither will sell within a month ... not at asked prices anyway.
We're in our annual summer slow-down, remember?

I think they will not sell until later in the year, and then they'll sell for either higher prices, or everyone will wish they had bought them when they had the chance. Seriously.

I'd say they have equal chances of selling.

The super clouded 69 one is GONE!!!!!

Offline badon

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Hello, I am a new forum user just to say Hi first.
I found a post by Chinese coin collector dated back in 2008, discussing about the varieties of God of wealth silver medal. Take some time a read it carefully... I personally believe the result is more than the clouds...

A picture is more than a thousand words... can you see the difference found by Chinese people ? they called it "First Version" and "Second Version".. 

Hints:
1. Look at the Chinese Characters on Top of the Reverse ( it is the year in chinese, it could be the Only most important difference that separates two varieties)
2. Look at the Chinese Characters(font type used) in rounded circles (the circle itself is different)
3. there is actually more pictures I found but I think it is enough

Thanks for reading.. See you all soon..

Where are my manners? Welcome to the forum, it's good to have you! Thank you for bringing us your research into this topic, it is very helpful.

Offline Pandora

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The super clouded 69 one is GONE!!!!!

Hi Calc, eBay says the item was no longer available. Did you sell it? Thanks.

Offline buynicething

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Hello everyone,

I just got my clear claw god of wealth medal back from ncs today.
It graded 69!  Cert number 3540616-031

Offline Pandora

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Hello everyone,

I just got my clear claw god of wealth medal back from ncs today.
It graded 69!  Cert number 3540616-031

Congratulations! Now you need Clouded Claw 69 and Super Clouded Claw 69 :-)

Offline buynicething

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Congratulations! Now you need Clouded Claw 69 and Super Clouded Claw 69 :-)

Oh, but for the money.  Maybe someday i will be able to acquire such an expensive set, but not yet.

Offline badon

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I think the clear claws are underpriced right now, since all the attention has been focused on the clouded and super clouded. My investment dollars are going towards the clouded and clear, since the supers are so hard to find, and already quite valuable.

Offline MrOrganic

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Oh, but for the money.  Maybe someday i will be able to acquire such an expensive set, but not yet.

...
I think the clear claws are underpriced right now, since all the attention has been focused on the clouded and super clouded. My investment dollars are going towards the clouded and clear, since the supers are so hard to find, and already quite valuable.

Anyone know of Private sales of super clouded claw 69's going for strong money???
EMERGING MARKET GROUP  
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GO TO my Ebay Click: http://stores.ebay.com/worldcollectibles310

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Offline badon

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I know of a few that sold for over $5000. If I remember correctly, they were on this forum and/or on ebay. They might have sold for over $6000, but I'm not sure.

Offline reiboy

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A hoard of these GOW medals entering market soon! 32 in fact.

http://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/CertResults.aspx?CertNumber=3104265-001 through 032. A few 69s in clear and clouded, none in super clouded. In fact, none in the batch were super clouded. Alhambra sent these in.

They also have ten 1989 1oz silver snakes coming, about half in PF69. As well as a boatload of other coins.

Don't mean to out them but it doesn't take much snooping to figure these things out. I think NGC should do away with sequential numbering, or at least add a random 3 letter suffix to the end to make snooping harder. This to protect sellers from revealing their hand too early.

This can't the hoard badon was referring to, can it!?

Offline Pandora

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hmm...looks like Super Clouded is even more rare than previously thought.

Offline Pandora

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Out of 32, only 10 received a 69 grade.

3104265-007 - Clouded 69
3104265-010 - Clouded 69
3104265-027 - Clouded 69

3104265-008 - Clear 69
3104265-015 - Clear 69
3104265-016 - Clear 69
3104265-020 - Clear 69
3104265-021 - Clear 69
3104265-023 - Clear 69
3104265-029 - Clear 69

Offline badon

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The Coin Compendium has randomized numbers, but it also has features to allow you to track who uploaded a coin, and who claims to own it, among other things. Both NGC and the Coin Compendium are there to bring coins to light, not keep them hidden. It will take special thought and consideration to allow them to be hidden.

Is that something you think would be important for the Coin Compendium? Right now, it's designed to track ownership history, but the owners can just be anonymous user names. The same tricks can be used to figure out what other coins are in a lot, on NGC's website.

I'm not sure, but I think Alhambra's coins may have come from PandaAmerica, which was a separate hoard from the other one that contained 50 coins. Last I checked, the 50 coin hoard was down to only 15 coins, and the best of them had already been cherry-picked.

In any case, it's good that there's finally some clouded 69's coming to the market soon. Those things are hard to find.

Offline badon

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Out of 32, only 10 received a 69 grade.

3104265-007 - Clouded 69
3104265-010 - Clouded 69
3104265-027 - Clouded 69

3104265-008 - Clear 69
3104265-015 - Clear 69
3104265-016 - Clear 69
3104265-020 - Clear 69
3104265-021 - Clear 69
3104265-023 - Clear 69
3104265-029 - Clear 69

Thanks for that info. That confirms my information that says most of the best coins have been sold already, leaving behind lower grade coins in the remaining hoards. This ought to have the effect of holding 68 and lower grade prices flat or increasing slowly, while boosting 69 grade prices due to scarcity.

In the previous submissions, we were seeing about 80% of the clear claw coins come back as 69's. How many clear claw and clouded claw are in the 32 coin lot? Is it still an 80% ratio for the 69 clears, and a 25% ratio for the 69 cloudeds?

Offline badon

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hmm...looks like Super Clouded is even more rare than previously thought.

Yes, the fact that no new super cloudeds are being discovered means that these other coins being submitted are demonstrating that the relative rarity of a 69 super is higher than previously thought. However, I suspect that rarecoincollector may have more of them coming, but how many and in what grade, I don't know.

Offline Pandora

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Thanks for that info. That confirms my information that says most of the best coins have been sold already, leaving behind lower grade coins in the remaining hoards. This ought to have the effect of holding 68 and lower grade prices flat or increasing slowly, while boosting 69 grade prices due to scarcity.

In the previous submissions, we were seeing about 80% of the clear claw coins come back as 69's. How many clear claw and clouded claw are in the 32 coin lot? Is it still an 80% ratio for the 69 clears, and a 25% ratio for the 69 cloudeds?

Correct. One thing I was amazed at seeing that so many coins received 66 and 67 graded. Hardly a few 68s.

Offline Pandora

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Yes, the fact that no new super cloudeds are being discovered means that these other coins being submitted are demonstrating that the relative rarity of a 69 super is higher than previously thought. However, I suspect that rarecoincollector may have more of them coming, but how many and in what grade, I don't know.

One super clouded 69 showed up for $2500 today on Rarecoincollector. It was sold within minutes.  :(

Also they added one clouded raw for $1550.

Badon, what do you think the market price should be for these...

Offline badon

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$5000+

Offline Pandaguy

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One super clouded 69 showed up for $2500 today on Rarecoincollector. It was sold within minutes.  :(

Also they added one clouded raw for $1550.

Badon, what do you think the market price should be for these...

That 69 was probably the one that Rarecoincollector screwed me out of. Based on my bad experiences with that company, I will never buy anything from them again. I have previously, in this forum, written about those bad experiences. Maybe Badon can supply the link for newbies to see.

Offline badon

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This discussion was one of the reasons I decided to make the Coin Compendium, as a tool for researchers to answer basic questions like "which variety is the rarest?". If any of you would like to do some research on these varieties, you can put yourself on the volunteer testers list for the Coin Compendium, here:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4603.0

Once you're invited and given access to the CC, you will be able to enter in the data we have collected here in this discussion. The data will give me something to run tests on for performing calculations and generating results, when adding new features.

Although the CC is officially still in "testing", the basic features are already in place and they work quite well.

You can find the data I have already entered in CCT3: 3 tael silver Chinese Taoist folk gods

Offline fishball

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Sorry to drag an old thread up but how much are these worth nowadays?

Just bought a clouded claw PF69 for fun, always wanted one so thought what the heck.

Currently looking for MS69 1oz Silver Pandas - feel free to PM me.
Also buying 1997 Hong Kong $1000 Gold Coin BOX + COA - please PM thank you.

Offline fishball

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Just read it, pretty decent sized range.

I definitely didn't overpay so there's that :)

Currently looking for MS69 1oz Silver Pandas - feel free to PM me.
Also buying 1997 Hong Kong $1000 Gold Coin BOX + COA - please PM thank you.

Offline badon

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Here is my NGC data.  Hope we can keep it update online.  The last 2 (2764099-012 clear, 2764117-053 clear) are the latest.

PandaOrLunar, do you have a sorted list of certification numbers? I can try entering them all into the Coin Compendium. From there, I can start thinking about adding features to display the data in a pretty way.

Offline adamc4

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Pricing is all over the place but current fair market values are pretty clear. ~$1350 for a clouded PF69 and ~$750 for a raw clear. If you are after either of those I can sell them privately lower than any publicly advertised price

Offline badon

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I'm always amazed at how quiet people get when there's a new discovery! Did you check your coins, adamc4?

Offline fishball

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I'm always amazed at how quiet people get when there's a new discovery! Did you check your coins, adamc4?

Is there a new variety?

Currently looking for MS69 1oz Silver Pandas - feel free to PM me.
Also buying 1997 Hong Kong $1000 Gold Coin BOX + COA - please PM thank you.

Offline badon

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I don't want to ruin the surprise!

Offline SANDAC

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This is what I currently have in my spreadsheet on 1989 Zhao Gongming.  It needs additional research in grade, designation, and varieties.

2757328-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2763641-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2764099-012   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
2764117-053   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104261-011   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104261-012   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104261-013   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104261-014   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104261-015   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-008   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-009   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-010   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-011   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-012   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-013   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-014   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-015   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-016   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-017   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-018   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-019   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-020   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-021   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-022   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-023   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-024   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-025   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-026   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-027   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-028   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-029   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-030   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-031   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3104265-032   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3449783-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3449783-008   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3452783-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3452783-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3452783-008   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3452783-009   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3452783-010   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453498-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453499-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453499-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453499-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453499-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3453499-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3487417-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3487417-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3539207-094   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3539207-095   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3540575-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3540616-031   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3540648-010   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3541012-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3541012-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542633-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542633-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542633-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542633-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542643-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542643-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542643-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3542643-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545157-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-008   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-009   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545371-010   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545669-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545669-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545669-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3545669-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-027   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-028   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-029   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-030   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-031   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-032   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-033   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-034   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-035   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-036   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-037   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-038   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3546002-039   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3547664-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-002   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-003   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-006   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3548084-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3552648-007   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3553610-005   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3553617-022   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3555806-004   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING            
3557122-001   (1989) CHINA ZHAO GONGMING         

Offline badon

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I will add that info to the list of stuff to be entered. It looks like people are still entering stuff in right now.

Offline badon

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SANDAC, thanks again for that list of certification numbers. All the certification numbers we know about have been entered in, and now we're entering in sightings from ebay. Interesting info already seems to be coming to the surface.

Offline SANDAC

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My database only represents 40-50% of MCC, but it is surprisingly easy to compile.  The main reason is because the surge in MCC population occurred early to mid 2011, and there were many large dealer submissions.  500 coins per NGC number appears to be the max limit, and I've encountered many such submission and many close to that limit.  These large submission accounted for 50% to 90% of current MCC population.  The good news is that dealers are in the business of making money, so these coins are likely available at fair price.  When these coins get into the hand of collectors, they will be a lot harder to pry loose. 

Offline badon

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I have noticed that phenomenon. When you buy from a dealer, you get a good price. When you buy from a collector, it's like a sacrifice to the gods. The 70 grade coin is advertised for $100,000. I bet that guy bought the coin for under $5000, if he got it from a dealer (he might have gotten lucky in his own submission).

The really scary thing is that somebody out there might actually pay such a huge price. In a country as big as China, with lots of rich people spending stupid money on stupid things, it would not be surprising if it actually sold. I know I want it, and I can't afford it :)

tamo42

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Well, like I said in the LBC list. Use the offer button! :)

Offline exchange

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$100,000 on a graded 3.3 ounce silver coin or $100,000 on almost if not all the Chinese cultural 1 ounce silver coins in OMP from 1979 to 2009? You may have dollars left over for some gold coins as well.

exchange

Offline Gilmore

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I came across 2 versions of the God of Wealth copper medals. Any information on those?


Offline anaiman

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1989 3.3 oz silver god of war and wealth - super clear claw
« Reply #213 on: March 11, 2013, 04:22:42 AM »
I seem to recall a discussion about a super clear variety of 1989 3.3 oz silver god and war along with pictures comparing the super clear with the clear ones.  I couldn't find it here.  :(

 Anyone know where the discussion was?   :confused1:

Offline SANDAC

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The difference between clear and super clear are the thickness of wrist and the space between thumb and index finger.  NGC 3567023-005 is super clear, while 3492510-049 is clear.

It is my observation that the differences are progressive rather than distinct so the line between super clear and clear is arbitrary.  They should not be in separate catagories.