Topic: Ebay Shill Bidding 1997 Gold Ox

[KonaJim]

Okay guys, anybody who does not understand that a "game" was being run on the 1997 gold OX this morning is being naive.  The exact same coin in a 12 hour period went from 15 bids to 1 bid.  The price went from $ 5,900.00 to $ 3,500.00.  That is a 59% discount in 12 hours.  If you don't believe that was a bad auction this morning that is fine with me.  However, I suggest you do not play any poker for money.

[1668Chris]

Its a tough call. I have seen wild price swings before (but I have to agree with konajim that 59% is a bit much).  I can only offer two points. The listing for the 2nd ox was very hard to find due to its description.  Second, I have sold to the underbidder before...significant experience purchasing coins for some time...should know pricing very well.

[poconopenn]

Seller of second 1997 ox listed all gold lunar coins in the wrong category, Russia instead of China. This may make some difference in final value.

http://cgi.ebay.com/1997-1-2-oz-gold-plum-ox-/260734282994?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3cb4f96cf2

http://cgi.ebay.com/1988-1-oz-gold-dragon-/260734295929?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3cb4f99f79

http://cgi.ebay.com/2001-1-2-oz-gold-plum-snake-/260734288113?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3cb4f980f1

[Underbidder]

Thanks Chris- I feel I'm being psychoanalyzed here by the pros, so I love it, LOL ! Thanks all!  I'm just following the advice of you all, admittedly making some small mistakes along the way, but I think price will be insignificant in a couple of years (months?). Thanks to you all ! I hope I can humbly ask your help in the future, or at least continue to entertain  and amuse you ! (No deep pockets here by the way, just a normal guy feeling that this is the area to move into as I try to move out of FRNs.)

[Underbidder]

KJ-  Maybe that first auction was gamed- or not. I don't know. I don't understand it, it may have been. One thing is certain- for some reason, someone bid a lot for that coin, more than has bid before by a large margin. Maybe they knew something, or maybe it was an error, or gaming. Or perhaps people are thinking a coin with only a couple thousand made is way more valuable than a Liberty or Saint with hundreds of thousands made. That's my thinking, and if others are coming to that conclusion, maybe we are on the cusp of MANY more starting to view it that way. If that's the case, then gentlemen, hang on tight, we may see some major exciting price volatility here soon.

[KonaJim]

I would agree except you need further price confirmation.  When one coin goes for 59% less in a 12 hour period that is absoluetly identical something is wrong.  As far as it being listed incorrectly that might lose a few bidders but most savy Ebayers are running multiple searches.  For example, and I know I'm not alone, I am running all the Chinese zodiac signs, rat, pig, horse, etc, lunar, flower, plum, scallop etc.  I have listed coins for people to buy on Ebay at a certain price, have hidden the identity, and people still find it in minutes.  For example I will make a deal with someone, call the coin Harry's Coin, put it in Japanese coins and it gets found, literally in minutes.  If people in this forum would like to believe it's nothing that is okay with me.  I'm just trying to alert people as to what I'm seeing.

[Underbidder]

Pocono-
That's what I saw too, good items listed in wrong category = maybe fewer bidders and a chance at a decent (but higher than last ) price. That's ok with me now. This category seems to be really taking off.  I don't want to chase price, but I realize that in a case like this, one needs to bid a little higher than last price, to get in for the long run. (Right-on Badon !) I sure hope I'm right on this !  But I feel it's a good gamble, the US dollar is dying and I want to be out of FRNs and this category has done well for me so far, plus its fun!

[Underbidder]

KJ-
 I respect you as one of the very tops in this field. So what is your suspicion? I think that 5k plus is excessive for that 1/2 oz Ox, too. What do you think is up? Or could it be, that we are on the verge of a surge?

[Underbidder]

Or here's an unsettling alternative thought- that myself and maybe another too of the same mind, have been the market lately? Could it be THAT thin, that a few people have been able to leapfrog pricing THAT far higher ? I hope NOT !

[poconopenn]

Here is my own experience with the price volatility during last three months for some undervalued modern Chinese coin. I bought 1956 1 fen PCGSMS65 on December 16 for $112.50.
 
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110622509277

The same coin listed by the same seller was ended at $213.60 last night.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=110646510934&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

The item was listed with a starting price of $85 and BIN price at $180. The seller is a very knowledgeable dealer and has to know the market condition better than average seller. The 18% ending price higher than the BIN price demonstrates the volatile of the current market of Chinese coins. The chance is good that this coin is no longer undervalued.
 
If you are the seller, enjoy the market and if you are the buyer, be very careful and selective. As a collector, coin grading is one of the most important skills to master. Make sure to learn the grading skill before jump into the expensive rare coin, graded or ungraded.

[PandaCollector]

The listing under Russian coins and without the word China in the title was fatal to the price realized in the second Golden Ox auction (and the other Chinese coins listed by the same seller). If not for the discussion on this forum I don't think anyone would have found those auctions at all. The only coin that brought a market price was the very last one, after everyone here was alerted to the situation.

As for Underbidder's concern that the market is so thin that it takes only a couple of buyers to move it, that appears to be the situation today. As I search for Chinese coin prices to include in the monthly Panda Pricepedia I find that many coins are advertised in stock by only one single dealer — in the entire world! For many others there are only two examples advertised and in order to find those I have to dig and scrape and look to every source I know and write emails to ask if a coin is available. There may be more out there in somebody's hands for sale, but no one is willing to make their existence public and I'm not seeing them.

The supply/demand situation for many coins appears precarious. You can watch the prices jump whenever attention is directed at a sector, whether because of a Pricepedia article or supply note, or badon's Recommended modern Chinese coin investments; the current supply can't accommodate extra demand. It fascinates me that despite the outsized price gains of many Chinese coins in recent months, supplies at the higher prices are still sparse.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

[Underbidder]

Has anyone done transactions with this seller before, or does anyone know if he posts here?  He seemed to have quite a few plum coins, both gold and silver, and most if not all are raw ungraded. His prices seem to be just a little higher than most recent auctions, so he seems to be on top of pricing. Anyone else here with any experience with this seller? 

[PandaCollector]

No personal experience, but I've watched his auctions for months. His descriptions impressed me as based on good experience. I bid on the silver Tiger last night without hesitation.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

[BobW]

I have acquired numerous PCGS and NGC certified coins from yus18 and have consistently been satisfied with the purchases. It generally takes two to three weeks for the coins to arrive unless Speed Post is used in which case the coins typically arrive in three days.

My one experience with d1635957 was positive.

[poconopenn]

Agree with Peter, this seller is very knowledgeable, not just Chinese coins, but all world coins. The Chinese stamps listed by this seller are also very nice and in an excellent condition. Apparently, the seller listed few Russian coins before Chinese coins and did not change the category for the listings. In addition, the first ox coin, based on the pictures, is in a better condition than the second coin. The fatal mistake in listing of the second ox and the better condition of the first coin may make the difference in the final price. This is a very volatile market and anything can happen.