Author Topic: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction  (Read 3559 times)

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Offline Birdman

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Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« on: January 28, 2011, 09:25:45 AM »
Wow...a strong start to bidding on this one...It will be interesting to see where it ends up...

Goldberg auction Lot 4423

China. 200 Yuan, 1992. KM-436. Weight 32.117 ounces. Mintage 185. For the completion of 150 Yuan Lunar - Animal Coin Series. Choice Brilliant Proof.
Estimated Value $1,000 - 1,200.
The Wayne Fowler Estate.

Opening Bid $ 42,000   

http://64.60.141.198/php/lot_auc.php?site=1&sale=62&lot=4423&lang=1

Offline badon

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2011, 05:30:49 PM »
SHOCKING!

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2011, 05:55:08 AM »
STILL CHEAP! A 1992 kilo silver Lunar coin has previously been sold for more than $100,000.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

KonaJim

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2011, 06:10:16 PM »
I would have to believe the mintage is less than 185.  There are many coins with a smaller mintage than 185 that don't command that type of price.  It's either that or a tremendous popularity for this particaular coin.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #4 on: January 29, 2011, 06:42:46 PM »
The 1992 gold Panda proofs turned out to have much lower actual mintages than originally reported, too.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

KonaJim

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #5 on: January 29, 2011, 07:01:24 PM »
If I'm not mistaken 185 is the actual mintage, the planned mintage was 300.  In a general overview I think planned mintages, and actual mintages are succumbing to populations.  I think that is why some of Peter's population work is so important, and why some coins are exhibitng surprising price appreciation.  I think in the course of years we are going to find out that some populations are downright miniscule.  There are lots of coins that we can begin to issue forecasts of extreme scarcity.  It will be just like a weather forecast, there will be mistakes due to a lack of information, coins residing in a number of countries, loss, returns to the mint, and meltdown.  On the negative side lets not forget about potential hoarding.  In other words all of a sudden an influx of coins come onto the market.

Offline badon

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2011, 10:37:37 PM »
Hoarding is causing prices to rise for lots of coins, but so far, hoards coming to market haven't had much negative impact on prices, even during the slowdown that happened in 2008.

KonaJim

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2011, 08:29:37 PM »
I'm not sure that we have had any "hoards" come to market yet.  What I mean by this is a large number of a certain coin that have been put away are found and come to market.  This happened with Morgan Silver Dollars and some St. Gaudens.  If someone rolls out a 100, 1999 Large Date Serif 1 gold 50 yuan pandas it could have an extreme affect on the coin price.  I think Peter mentioned a large number of 2000 silver mirror pandas coing out of a dealer some years ago.

Offline badon

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2011, 09:52:32 PM »
It could happen. Some coins are more likely than others. The 1999 large date serif is one I haven't bought, in part for that reason. I was going to write an article about it, but I decided there wasn't much point to that. I think the serif coins are a variety that will have their day, but I think they were a bit ahead of their time so far.

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2011, 11:16:10 PM »
I'm not sure that we have had any "hoards" come to market yet.  What I mean by this is a large number of a certain coin that have been put away are found and come to market.  This happened with Morgan Silver Dollars and some St. Gaudens.  If someone rolls out a 100, 1999 Large Date Serif 1 gold 50 yuan pandas it could have an extreme affect on the coin price.  I think Peter mentioned a large number of 2000 silver mirror pandas coing out of a dealer some years ago.

There was a dealer who used to occasionally get a 2 or 3 at a time, but nothing like a hoard of 2000 mirrors.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

Offline badon

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Re: Strong bidding on 1992 200 yuan in Goldberg auction
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2011, 11:22:32 PM »
Most of the coins are too rare to have a meaningful impact on the market. It takes more than a few dozen coins to have a lasting affect - otherwise, it's just a buying opportunity. So far, I haven't seen any evidence of single large hoards around.

With that said, Chinese people are notorious "hoarders", but in a different meaning of the word. Instead of accumulating just one thing, they hold on to wealth in general, without any above average proclivity for just one thing.

The things that have been hoarded in the past, in the usual meaning of the word, were all rare coins that still haven't come back to the market. Horses, dragons, peacocks, etc...When they do come back to market, I don't think they'll be driving the prices down, because the hoarding simply had the effect of driving prices up to a realistic level for such rare coins. That's the right way to hoard.

Cornering the market and driving prices up artificially beyond their reasonable values is the wrong way to hoard, and not what we're seeing.