Author Topic: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?  (Read 1461 times)

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Online Mirkkanen

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Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« on: March 20, 2020, 01:40:52 PM »
Hey All,

It has been a while since I've made any meaningful contributions to this site. I've mostly been away from the market since I decided last year that I needed to stack cash to prepare for the next phase of my life, living with my soon-to-be fiancee. Now that I'm on self-imposed quarantine, I have a bit more time :lol: So, here I am back to stimulate some conversation. I have a few questions and I'm eager to hear your replies. Many thanks in advance for your thoughts!


First of all, given the recent pullback in the markets, how would you deploy $20k if you were looking to invest?

Secondly, since China is currently getting rocked, what effect to you anticipate this having on the MCC market (above and beyond the current depressed level of performance), and how long will it last?

Thirdly, if I were going to create some sort of "get-her-started with investing" strategy for my partner, how might you outside-the-box thinkers advise me?

 N39

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2020, 08:33:38 PM »
Hey All,

It has been a while since I've made any meaningful contributions to this site. I've mostly been away from the market since I decided last year that I needed to stack cash to prepare for the next phase of my life, living with my soon-to-be fiancee. Now that I'm on self-imposed quarantine, I have a bit more time :lol: So, here I am back to stimulate some conversation. I have a few questions and I'm eager to hear your replies. Many thanks in advance for your thoughts!


First of all, given the recent pullback in the markets, how would you deploy $20k if you were looking to invest?

Secondly, since China is currently getting rocked, what effect to you anticipate this having on the MCC market (above and beyond the current depressed level of performance), and how long will it last?

Thirdly, if I were going to create some sort of "get-her-started with investing" strategy for my partner, how might you outside-the-box thinkers advise me?

 N39


I will buy an S&P Index 500 mutual fund or ETF with $6000 out of the $20,000 stack (Dow is in the low 19,000s now). I’ll watch the market for the next 4 weeks and invest another $6000 if it drops further. This also holds for the get-her-started-with-investing strategy; start her with a lump sum investment into a similar fund as above with 1/3rd of the seed money and trickle in another 1/3rd over the next few weeks/months. Keep the other 1/3rd for opportunistic buys into metals if you know what you are doing. This is not expert advice. Please consult an expert! Best wishes.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Online Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2020, 09:02:49 PM »
Thanks, and stay safe, doc!

Offline bonke

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2020, 09:29:57 PM »
Great questions.  I wish I had answers, but I do not.

Today, I spent a little less than $20,000 buying 200 shares of IBM.  I looked at recent earnings, estimated future earnings, cash flow, debt levels, dividends, yield and management.  In todays world, debt level and cash flow may be most important.  Still, in reality, my analysis is worthless.  With the Covid-19 virus, the fear-based shut down of the world economy and with the rapidly decreasing prices for oil, it is impossible to tell when we will regain some sense of stability so that estimates for IBM are realistic. 

Many companies have locked their doors due to the virus, are leveraged and may fail this year or next year.  Think about Ford.  Can Ford survive the reduced sales of cars and now the closure of their assembly lines.  The unions may have just destroyed their members' employer.

I plan to keep IBM for 10 years or more.  In a few years, I will be able to tell you if my entry point was appropriate and if the investment was appropriate.  This is very similar to the analysis concerning my modern Chinese coins.  Time will tell.

Jeremy, best wishes to you as you explore the future with your fiancee.  You are a nice young man and deserve a lifetime of happiness.

Mark Bonke

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2020, 07:31:33 AM »
I think these prices of bullion and rare Chinese will continue to climb.    Stay out of paper instruments.    Buy US junk silver, it has the highest premium today and i think it will continue upwards.     Buy rare MCC or vintage.      Food supplies.      No matter what disaster the Chinese are hiding, they still own the gold supply and world mines.      All this created helicopter money will come back to haunt us.....

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2020, 07:40:39 AM »
2 tins or cans of Mountain House Beef stew sold on ebay for $100 each!   

I still buy cheapies too on ebay.     Photos of China Banknote Printing Co.  OMP card about $26 total.     Another one listed on ebay for $200 and seller says Rare.      Cheap gambles....

Offline r3globe

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2020, 05:01:10 PM »
IMHO most $$$ will be made in the US shares market (including mining companies) in the next 3 years. Share market is setting up for a slingshot move that will surprise everybody with its momentum to the upside. Best of luck with family life.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2020, 07:55:49 AM »
Royal Canada Mint or RCM is down for 2 weeks if not longer.     Can US Mint and Perth Mint meet upcoming demand, no.     King World News    "Breaking news; Von Greyerz just warned Swiss refineries have halted gold production".       Does this mean the world is out of gold/silver??

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2020, 09:50:25 PM »
Looks like short squeeze could happen with silver on the paper markets, a lot of mine capacity is being idled due to virus.  I am not buying any silver, sticking to gold and gold miners.  The latest QE will take gold to new highs, while a recession will take silver to new lows. 

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-23/Physical-silver-supply-squeeze-about-to-get-worse-warns-Keith-Neumeyer.html

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2020, 10:59:32 PM »
You may not be able to purchase physical gold.

Financial crisis causes margin calls causes paper gold to be sold and causes paper gold price to drop; meantime people wants physical gold for protection and happy the gold price (as driven by paper gold) is dropping so they buy up physical gold causing shortage.  This virus is going to take some time to work out, so the financial crisis will not go away soon.  This will cause significant decoupling between physical and paper gold.

Physical gold is selling like Toilet Papaer!
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/its-selling-toilet-paper-if-you-havent-bought-physical-gold-yet-its-probably-too-late

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2020, 12:14:17 AM »
This morning when gold was $1525 a forum member asked if I had anything to sell, gave him some prices and bought a few coins.  This evening with gold $50 higher, an investor called and bought 14oz of 1/2 at $150/oz higher than the prices I quoted this morning.  He called around and none of the dealers had inventory to sell, everyone is getting cleaned out.  The bigger players are quoting 10% over for gold eagles, these were 2% over two weeks ago and 5% last week.  Now with gold up, you would expect spread to contract, but it has expanded indicating a real shortage of gold.  There is a saying prices go up when sellers are scared to sell because they know they can't replenish inventory, I think now for the first time I won't be able to replenish inventory going forward and will have to continue to buy paper instruments on the way up. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2020, 06:59:38 AM »
Pandamonium is almost here.  Got a text from east coast with a buy order at 5:45am cst.  Will feed the beast a little or just go back to sleep. $2000 looks like small exponential hop from here.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2020, 08:06:12 AM »
Ebay will be the next battleground for precious metals as dealer inventory is going fast.        In time the world will wake up to Chinese money and rare China coins/medals.       
Did the mines, mints and refineries shut down due to virus or lack of PM?   

There will be pandamonium in the wrestling ring.    Now you know where i got my nickname, based on intelligence.....


Online Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2020, 01:23:52 PM »
I'm really enjoying all of the replies to this thread so far, thank you! And thanks, Bonke, for your kind words and positive thoughts.

I am waiting patiently for MCC to start rising again along with the price of gold. I am VERY curious to see how silver responds to what I think will be gold's upcoming retest of the previous highs. If Arif is right, my sounces of Ag will do me no good. If silver tags along for the ride, I'll be quite happy :)

In the meantime, I have made no decisions about where to park my money other than in cash, for now. If there is a housing crash/decline, maybe a down payment on a house would be the best option . . .

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2020, 09:13:31 AM »
Guns, gold and grub...     Here is what many articles have to say and the impact of this virus...

Guns     Posted here guns/ammo are selling quick.    In the near future police will not respond to calls unless absolutely necessary so defend your self.      Parts of CA says to shut down gun stores.   ALL criminals have mega guns/ammo....

Gold    Gold will not reach 200 to 1 w/ silver.    Gold/silver will go to huge value and small silver will be used as daily money.    Junk silver has highest premium now and i still love dimes.     There is bullion available but it cannot be shipped.    Big stress on COMEX and some think it may finally collapse soon, then on to fair market values.      The US and world is creating paper money like never before.     The system of things will fail and inequity will abound.      Rare art, cars, etc.. are dropping in value.     Real estate like farm land or survivor type property will retain most value.    When created money drops then the world will look to who owns the gold, China and Russia.    That is when their cherished rare coins/medals will take off, maybe sooner.     The West banks will soon confiscate all lock boxes as they want to survive.   You spent how many years studying and collecting rare coins/medals to hand them over to some bank idiot?....

Grub   Locust invasion is attacking Middle East crops and have reached the China border.    Can China contain it or will it hit India too?    Italy cannot plant crops due to virus, same as other countries.      The US has had huge weather problems and soon financial too so crops could suffer more.    Vital we all have food supplies.....