Author Topic: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?  (Read 1236 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« on: March 20, 2020, 01:40:52 PM »
Hey All,

It has been a while since I've made any meaningful contributions to this site. I've mostly been away from the market since I decided last year that I needed to stack cash to prepare for the next phase of my life, living with my soon-to-be fiancee. Now that I'm on self-imposed quarantine, I have a bit more time :lol: So, here I am back to stimulate some conversation. I have a few questions and I'm eager to hear your replies. Many thanks in advance for your thoughts!


First of all, given the recent pullback in the markets, how would you deploy $20k if you were looking to invest?

Secondly, since China is currently getting rocked, what effect to you anticipate this having on the MCC market (above and beyond the current depressed level of performance), and how long will it last?

Thirdly, if I were going to create some sort of "get-her-started with investing" strategy for my partner, how might you outside-the-box thinkers advise me?

 N39

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2020, 08:33:38 PM »
Hey All,

It has been a while since I've made any meaningful contributions to this site. I've mostly been away from the market since I decided last year that I needed to stack cash to prepare for the next phase of my life, living with my soon-to-be fiancee. Now that I'm on self-imposed quarantine, I have a bit more time :lol: So, here I am back to stimulate some conversation. I have a few questions and I'm eager to hear your replies. Many thanks in advance for your thoughts!


First of all, given the recent pullback in the markets, how would you deploy $20k if you were looking to invest?

Secondly, since China is currently getting rocked, what effect to you anticipate this having on the MCC market (above and beyond the current depressed level of performance), and how long will it last?

Thirdly, if I were going to create some sort of "get-her-started with investing" strategy for my partner, how might you outside-the-box thinkers advise me?

 N39


I will buy an S&P Index 500 mutual fund or ETF with $6000 out of the $20,000 stack (Dow is in the low 19,000s now). I’ll watch the market for the next 4 weeks and invest another $6000 if it drops further. This also holds for the get-her-started-with-investing strategy; start her with a lump sum investment into a similar fund as above with 1/3rd of the seed money and trickle in another 1/3rd over the next few weeks/months. Keep the other 1/3rd for opportunistic buys into metals if you know what you are doing. This is not expert advice. Please consult an expert! Best wishes.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2020, 09:02:49 PM »
Thanks, and stay safe, doc!

Offline bonke

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2020, 09:29:57 PM »
Great questions.  I wish I had answers, but I do not.

Today, I spent a little less than $20,000 buying 200 shares of IBM.  I looked at recent earnings, estimated future earnings, cash flow, debt levels, dividends, yield and management.  In todays world, debt level and cash flow may be most important.  Still, in reality, my analysis is worthless.  With the Covid-19 virus, the fear-based shut down of the world economy and with the rapidly decreasing prices for oil, it is impossible to tell when we will regain some sense of stability so that estimates for IBM are realistic. 

Many companies have locked their doors due to the virus, are leveraged and may fail this year or next year.  Think about Ford.  Can Ford survive the reduced sales of cars and now the closure of their assembly lines.  The unions may have just destroyed their members' employer.

I plan to keep IBM for 10 years or more.  In a few years, I will be able to tell you if my entry point was appropriate and if the investment was appropriate.  This is very similar to the analysis concerning my modern Chinese coins.  Time will tell.

Jeremy, best wishes to you as you explore the future with your fiancee.  You are a nice young man and deserve a lifetime of happiness.

Mark Bonke

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2020, 07:31:33 AM »
I think these prices of bullion and rare Chinese will continue to climb.    Stay out of paper instruments.    Buy US junk silver, it has the highest premium today and i think it will continue upwards.     Buy rare MCC or vintage.      Food supplies.      No matter what disaster the Chinese are hiding, they still own the gold supply and world mines.      All this created helicopter money will come back to haunt us.....

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2020, 07:40:39 AM »
2 tins or cans of Mountain House Beef stew sold on ebay for $100 each!   

I still buy cheapies too on ebay.     Photos of China Banknote Printing Co.  OMP card about $26 total.     Another one listed on ebay for $200 and seller says Rare.      Cheap gambles....

Offline r3globe

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2020, 05:01:10 PM »
IMHO most $$$ will be made in the US shares market (including mining companies) in the next 3 years. Share market is setting up for a slingshot move that will surprise everybody with its momentum to the upside. Best of luck with family life.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2020, 07:55:49 AM »
Royal Canada Mint or RCM is down for 2 weeks if not longer.     Can US Mint and Perth Mint meet upcoming demand, no.     King World News    "Breaking news; Von Greyerz just warned Swiss refineries have halted gold production".       Does this mean the world is out of gold/silver??

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2020, 09:50:25 PM »
Looks like short squeeze could happen with silver on the paper markets, a lot of mine capacity is being idled due to virus.  I am not buying any silver, sticking to gold and gold miners.  The latest QE will take gold to new highs, while a recession will take silver to new lows. 

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-23/Physical-silver-supply-squeeze-about-to-get-worse-warns-Keith-Neumeyer.html

Offline SANDAC

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2020, 10:59:32 PM »
You may not be able to purchase physical gold.

Financial crisis causes margin calls causes paper gold to be sold and causes paper gold price to drop; meantime people wants physical gold for protection and happy the gold price (as driven by paper gold) is dropping so they buy up physical gold causing shortage.  This virus is going to take some time to work out, so the financial crisis will not go away soon.  This will cause significant decoupling between physical and paper gold.

Physical gold is selling like Toilet Papaer!
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/its-selling-toilet-paper-if-you-havent-bought-physical-gold-yet-its-probably-too-late

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #10 on: March 24, 2020, 12:14:17 AM »
This morning when gold was $1525 a forum member asked if I had anything to sell, gave him some prices and bought a few coins.  This evening with gold $50 higher, an investor called and bought 14oz of 1/2 at $150/oz higher than the prices I quoted this morning.  He called around and none of the dealers had inventory to sell, everyone is getting cleaned out.  The bigger players are quoting 10% over for gold eagles, these were 2% over two weeks ago and 5% last week.  Now with gold up, you would expect spread to contract, but it has expanded indicating a real shortage of gold.  There is a saying prices go up when sellers are scared to sell because they know they can't replenish inventory, I think now for the first time I won't be able to replenish inventory going forward and will have to continue to buy paper instruments on the way up. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #11 on: March 24, 2020, 06:59:38 AM »
Pandamonium is almost here.  Got a text from east coast with a buy order at 5:45am cst.  Will feed the beast a little or just go back to sleep. $2000 looks like small exponential hop from here.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #12 on: March 24, 2020, 08:06:12 AM »
Ebay will be the next battleground for precious metals as dealer inventory is going fast.        In time the world will wake up to Chinese money and rare China coins/medals.       
Did the mines, mints and refineries shut down due to virus or lack of PM?   

There will be pandamonium in the wrestling ring.    Now you know where i got my nickname, based on intelligence.....


Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2020, 01:23:52 PM »
I'm really enjoying all of the replies to this thread so far, thank you! And thanks, Bonke, for your kind words and positive thoughts.

I am waiting patiently for MCC to start rising again along with the price of gold. I am VERY curious to see how silver responds to what I think will be gold's upcoming retest of the previous highs. If Arif is right, my sounces of Ag will do me no good. If silver tags along for the ride, I'll be quite happy :)

In the meantime, I have made no decisions about where to park my money other than in cash, for now. If there is a housing crash/decline, maybe a down payment on a house would be the best option . . .

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2020, 09:13:31 AM »
Guns, gold and grub...     Here is what many articles have to say and the impact of this virus...

Guns     Posted here guns/ammo are selling quick.    In the near future police will not respond to calls unless absolutely necessary so defend your self.      Parts of CA says to shut down gun stores.   ALL criminals have mega guns/ammo....

Gold    Gold will not reach 200 to 1 w/ silver.    Gold/silver will go to huge value and small silver will be used as daily money.    Junk silver has highest premium now and i still love dimes.     There is bullion available but it cannot be shipped.    Big stress on COMEX and some think it may finally collapse soon, then on to fair market values.      The US and world is creating paper money like never before.     The system of things will fail and inequity will abound.      Rare art, cars, etc.. are dropping in value.     Real estate like farm land or survivor type property will retain most value.    When created money drops then the world will look to who owns the gold, China and Russia.    That is when their cherished rare coins/medals will take off, maybe sooner.     The West banks will soon confiscate all lock boxes as they want to survive.   You spent how many years studying and collecting rare coins/medals to hand them over to some bank idiot?....

Grub   Locust invasion is attacking Middle East crops and have reached the China border.    Can China contain it or will it hit India too?    Italy cannot plant crops due to virus, same as other countries.      The US has had huge weather problems and soon financial too so crops could suffer more.    Vital we all have food supplies.....



Offline wg

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2020, 06:24:46 AM »
( .. )
If Arif is right, my sounces of Ag will do me no good. If silver tags along for the ride, I'll be quite happy :)

...

Quote
.... There is a major silver shortage and virtually impossible to find. Smaller quantities of silver fetch a 100% markup on spot.

With very little physical available and demand substantial, there is soon likely to be pressure on the paper market. Investors who have bought gold and silver futures will be concerned of the contracts being honoured and ask for delivery.

What we are seeing now is probably the beginning of the end of the gold and silver paper market.....

https://goldswitzerland.com/swiss-gold-refiners-cease-production-end-of-paper-market/


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2020, 08:48:33 AM »
Rare Coin Collector.....remember when they were completely sold out years ago?

1986P G10Y PF 69 UC  1/10   proof gold panda    -bid-     Ebay 333556319601

Read "condition" or "sellers notes"...

Silver bullion is not selling for $10 over spot.    It is now double spot price.    It will only go up from here as the virus will not allow transportation/refinement of gold/silver....

Golly, $1,000 oz silver?    Who would ever post something like that?   OK, I did years ago.     Lets see how this plays out.....

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #17 on: March 27, 2020, 10:48:21 PM »
Pandamonium, lets.see.how much you believe in Ag :)

If silver goes to $1,000/oz in the next 3 years, I will give you 3 ounces (I'll be super wealthy so I won't mind). If silver does not even hit $100/oz in the next 3 years, will you send me 5 oz?

Will wait patiently for a reply . . .

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2020, 07:49:17 AM »
OK and i agree.    It better be real silver.     Can i have my choice of say 1984 PF 69 HK Expo silver panda as 1 oz of silver?......

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2020, 10:14:54 AM »
hah, well, I don't have any of thoooose ounces. I was talking just regular oz of bullion silver.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2020, 12:51:18 PM »
With silver spot above $14, you can easily buy 50,000-100,000 oz of silver eagles ($21/oz), generic rounds ($18/oz) and bars ($17/oz) on any given day in the US wholesale market.  There is no shortage of silver, what there is a shortage of is silver at spot prices, which happens when prices decline rapidly.  After a few weeks or months of prices at the new level spreads contract as new sellers give up their silver near historic low spreads of $0-$2/oz.  My view is baby boomers (dealers, investors, collectors) are trying to pump the price the up so they can exit their position profitably because they were convinced to buy it back in 2000s on misinformation about supply constraints and unlimited demand from industries, it never materialized similar to peak oil theories (I took my losses on peak oil type investments, never again I hope).  Don't bail the baby boomers out, let them give you their silver for $5/oz when they all have to sell for expenses in 5-15 years, then it will safe to invest in silver for the longer-term play if industrial demand exists for the material.  I have seen this play out in the stamps market for years, it used to be postage stamps from 1970-1990s would sell for near face value, then 80%, then 65%, then 55%, now below 50%.  Baby boomers and their estates are selling faster than anyone is buying.  Any time you get a package from me covered in 15 cents - 40 cent stamps remember to sell your silver bullion (not numismatic) before baby boomers do. 

Gold is portable and is considered a currency, its industrial uses are limited and its price trades on fear and greed.  With every country printing 20-40% of their GDP in the coming months gold is positioned to do very well.  Gold is at all-time highs in almost all world currencies, except the mighty dollar which is the strongest currency in the world and probably will remain that way unless we go to war.  Right now common gold eagles are +$150/oz, common modern world gold (including pandas) +$80/oz up from -$10/oz in early February.  It is hard to find modern gold to purchase in today's market may be 50-100/oz a day, there were many sellers in early February when gold was $1670, but now at $1630 very few are will to part with their gold. 


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2020, 07:25:47 PM »
The US wholesale market says they are empty.     The miners cannot sell, the transporters cannot ship, the refineries cannot find supply or refine, the mints cannot strike coins/medals due to virus shutdown.    Even if they could, the demand would overwhelm supply. 
 
In a panic world, prices can jump up high and quick.    Looks like we are entering into panic buying.   The next few days/weeks should give us a good idea of what will happen.   This should be very interesting.    All my collector friends are watching bullion prices and the Chinese market.    Like i said, when supply is gone then ebay will be the next target.    We will soon find out how panic behavior affects prices...

One example is Mountain House #10 tins.    Ebay beef stew 2 tins sold for $100 each a week or two ago due to panic buying of food across the US.   That has calmed down a bit and a tin of beef stew just sold on ebay for about $40 plus.   
I just got back from my monthly grocery shopping today.   Inflation is beginning.   I paid about 10% to 20% more for groceries this month compared to last month.....

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2020, 02:35:25 PM »
With silver spot above $14, you can easily buy 50,000-100,000 oz of silver eagles ($21/oz), generic rounds ($18/oz) and bars ($17/oz) on any given day in the US wholesale market.  There is no shortage of silver, what there is a shortage of is silver at spot prices, which happens when prices decline rapidly.  After a few weeks or months of prices at the new level spreads contract as new sellers give up their silver near historic low spreads of $0-$2/oz.  My view is baby boomers (dealers, investors, collectors) are trying to pump the price the up so they can exit their position profitably because they were convinced to buy it back in 2000s on misinformation about supply constraints and unlimited demand from industries, it never materialized similar to peak oil theories (I took my losses on peak oil type investments, never again I hope).  Don't bail the baby boomers out, let them give you their silver for $5/oz when they all have to sell for expenses in 5-15 years, then it will safe to invest in silver for the longer-term play if industrial demand exists for the material.  I have seen this play out in the stamps market for years, it used to be postage stamps from 1970-1990s would sell for near face value, then 80%, then 65%, then 55%, now below 50%.  Baby boomers and their estates are selling faster than anyone is buying.  Any time you get a package from me covered in 15 cents - 40 cent stamps remember to sell your silver bullion (not numismatic) before baby boomers do. 

Gold is portable and is considered a currency, its industrial uses are limited and its price trades on fear and greed.  With every country printing 20-40% of their GDP in the coming months gold is positioned to do very well.  Gold is at all-time highs in almost all world currencies, except the mighty dollar which is the strongest currency in the world and probably will remain that way unless we go to war.  Right now common gold eagles are +$150/oz, common modern world gold (including pandas) +$80/oz up from -$10/oz in early February.  It is hard to find modern gold to purchase in today's market may be 50-100/oz a day, there were many sellers in early February when gold was $1670, but now at $1630 very few are will to part with their gold. 



Great analysis and strategy. +1.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2020, 02:42:08 PM »
After reading KeyDate's comment, if anyone sitting on "too large" a position of silver bullion wants to exit his/her position, I will help out by buying a few hundred ounces at $14/oz. PM me?

In the meantime, still watching market movements. I am thinking we'll see another dip lower in stocks. I hope I am right . . .


Offline bonke

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Re: Anyone Buying MCC at these Levels?
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2020, 04:09:39 PM »
I am interested in buying

1)  Pan 25b - 1985 China gold 10y panda - Ghost Temple Die State

2)  Pan 30b - 1986 China gold 100y panda - Ghost Date Die State

3)  Pan 189b - 1993 China gold 100y panda - Textured Numerals

Without doubt, I want these in NGC MS69 holders and without problems, such as red spots, toning, etc.

If you have these available, please send me a personal message with slab numbers and price.  I will respond as soon as I see the message.

Mark Bonke

ps  Yes, I am buying modern Chinese coins at these levels.  This pulls my request back on topic.