Author Topic: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020  (Read 868 times)

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Offline bonke

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Will the sharp decline of the Dow Industrial Average from 29,551 in mid-February to 19,901 in mid-March change your decision to buy modern Chinese collectible coins and/or medals in 2020? 

Does the spread of COVID-19 within the USA and around the world impact this decision?  In what way?

Does the decision by OPEC+ (OPEC countries plus Russia) to increase production of oil (without limits) impact this decision?  In what way?

Does the sharp decline in the price of gold, silver, platinum and palladium impact this decision?  In what way?

So many variables are impacting our decisions this year.  I feel overwhelmed by the challenges and potential opportunities.  Should I focus on the decline in the DOW and my retirement accounts?  Is this a buying opportunity or a time to sell and accumulate cash?  Should I focus on the pandemic?  Is this a time to self-quarantine or find a way in which to help my neighbors and friends?  Should I wait to invest in bullion products or collectible Chinese coins until metal prices bottom out?

Some days the choice is easy.  Today, my neighbor called.  She is sick.  I stopped looking at the stock market decline.  I stopped looking at coin listings.  I went to the local Safeway store and bought her a quart of Breyers Lactose Free Vanilla Ice Cream.  She has the symptoms consistent with COVID-19, but she has not visited a Level 3 country within the past few weeks and she is unaware of being around someone who has been diagnosed with the disease.  So, she cannot be tested for COVID-19 in our community.  She is staying at home for the next 14 days, hoping the pain in her chest is not pneumonia.  I am leaving the ice cream by her front door to avoid exposure.

Stay safe!  Stay healthy!  Have fun exploring the multitude of opportunities in world in which we live!

Mark Bonke

Offline Hippanda

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 04:05:45 AM »
Stay healthy.
"He who speaks without modesty will find it difficult to make his words good."

Confucius

Offline pandamonium

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 08:17:49 AM »
Tucker Carlson on FOX news says the Dr's in France? claim that the cure for malaria works on this virus.     I think this is being looked at world wide.    The cure for malaria is a 50 yr old treatment or drug so not new...
May i suggest boosting your immunity system w/ natural products?      Shop online and have delivery...

Ebay Mountain House case of 6 #10 tins sold last week about $250 case w/ ship.    This week $389 & $429 w/ ship and the week is not over.  The entire US is now preppers so everything has changed.

Bullionstar       Bullionstar Update  "The window to purchase....."        He says mints, refineries are out of precious metals...

SRSrocco report    "Massive surge in physical silver buying....."         Many online sellers are out and have 6 weeks waiting lists....

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 11:06:43 AM »
"Illuminati Silver" YouTube channel produced a video yesterday where it talked about the current silver shortages. It is worth a listen. They recommend not to panic buy, and that the current "shortage" is an artificial one.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2020, 11:13:06 AM »
Silver eagles are trading like numismatic coins, it doesn't matter where spot is between $10-$17, they sell for $19 regardless.  The line a gun store was 3 hours yesterday.  On Saturday it was 2 hours.  A week ago no line.  People are preparing for the worst, guns, cash, silver, gold and of course all you can eat Mountain House meals. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2020, 07:15:26 AM »
Looks like the preppers were right all along.
   
jsmineset   Bill Holter says APMEX is the only big dealer w/ junk silver and they want 10%+ premium over spot so $20+ oz.
SRS rocco report   "What's happening in the gold/silver market......"    Junk gets highest premium for silver

Mountain House #10 tins or cans are getting $60 plus each in cases of 6 for Entrees.    Expect even higher prices soon as cases/cans sell quickly..

In time the world will wake up to Chinese money...

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2020, 08:19:59 PM »
Hello Mr. Bonke,
The questions you posed and scenarios painted are so varied as to keep me gainfully employed figuring out the answers. I’ll take the US stock market first because this is something I am quite aware of; not an expert but I know enough not to do something ill-advised now.

The recent crash of the US stock market was anticipated, but in a generic fashion. No one knew a year or two ago that it would be COVID-19 related issues that would be the actual trigger. The market has been on a tear since the 2009 lows of (the Dow Jones Industrial Average) about 9000, where it fell to from it pre-crash level of above 13,000. At 29,000 plus it was clear that a major correction was overdue.

Those planning to retire are usually advised to take out about 25% of their money from stocks or stock-delaminated mutual funds at the best high they are most comfortable with about five years before their retirement date. Those failing to do so are faced with the option of taking out their money at times such as now when the Dow is below 20,000; but this is not a total loss because they can claim a capital loss tax rebate at filing time (depending on the tax treatment of the stock, stock fund or individual in question).

The stock market is going to bottom out some day but few are able to predict that bottom with accuracy so many will buy if there has been a substantial fall. I dare say that there has already been a substantial fall at this time so some may want to buy into the market at this time. But the stock may fall further as the economic impact of COVID-19 on US and world markets is still evolving.

Again, some may to sell some gold/silver holdings at this time to buy into the stock market but the question is, are they seasoned investors or knee jerk speculators? Because seasoned investors have been accumulating cash positions for the last few years in anticipation of this swoon.

Finally, the stock market will recover some day. I can’t predict when this will happen. It may take time because again, the economic impact of COVID-19 is still evolving.

It is a complex topic, more complex than what I have written.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2020, 08:21:16 PM »
I wish everyone the best health and luck in these troubling times.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline baron88

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2020, 08:54:36 PM »
Hi Mark, this is my thought:

I am not buying collectible MCCs right now because I think after markets bottomed gold price might surge much higher just like it did after the 2008 crash, and the premium on collectable MCCs might drop down substantially.

I am looking for the Dow to at least go down to 15,000, a 50% decline, judging by the previous market crashes since 1987.

The virus situation is a real threat. Our government failed to act early, warn the people, and delayed testing for about two months, now we are seeing the consequences. Here in the Houston area supermarkets have plenty of food supply. Only toilet papers and hand sanitizers are nowhere to be found. We cancelled all planed trips and are staying home. Health and safety first.

Virus situation, oil price war and price decline of metals also do make me wary of paying high premium on MCCs. I focus on cheap energy and mining stocks, and metal ETFs. Doing some day trading too since market volatility makes it worthwhile. Lots of opportunities out there.

Houston has free testing available to everybody now. Your neighbor should be tested and treated.  Make sure you are fully protected if you are to help her. It is really better to leave it to the professionals.

Best wishes to you and all fellow forum members!

Rich



Offline bonke

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2020, 09:01:00 PM »
Four months have passed since I asked the initial question. 

Covid-19 has continued to spread throughout the world.

OPEC made an agreement to limit oil production in an attempt to stabilize oil prices in the face of drastic reductions in demand.

Bullion prices have significantly increased.

The USA has just announced a 32.9% decrease in GDP during the second quarter.  WOW!  Definitely, a historic event.

Congress is negotiating another multi-trillon dollar package to save the unemployed and small businesses and . . .

Is this the time to buy modern Chinese coins?  Today, I received a shipment of two 1996 China 1oz gold panda coins from my friend in Wisconsin.  They are beautiful and a welcome addition to my collection.  So, maybe, I am a buyer, although I have sold some silver fan shaped lunar coins at Great Collections and still have other silver Chinese coins for sale.  So, definitely, I am still confused and uncertain as to whether I should buy or sell.

Has your opinion changed during the past 4 months as this virus and economic instability continues to strain the world?

Mark Bonke

ps  You may wish to check out the bidding on my silver Australia (series 1) lunar coins and my Year of the Child silver coins from about 20 countries.  The Australia coins (1 oz silver) are bidding for $21-$58 and the Year of the Child coins are bidding for $15-$16.  Feel fortunate that you limit yourself to modern Chinese coins.  Remember what people are willing to pay for coins with the same topic and the same silver content when the coin is produced in China vs what they are willing to pay for coins from other countries.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2020, 10:48:57 PM »
1)  BUY!

2)  Don't sell unless you have to.

3)  Ask your friend in Wisconsin.....

Offline comeaux

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2020, 08:24:02 PM »
The line a gun store was 3 hours yesterday.  On Saturday it was 2 hours.
in South Louisiana, that’s one thing you’ll never see is a line at a gun store !  :laugh:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2020, 08:30:48 PM »
Went to cabelas in Kansas City 5 experts ready to help me, great variety to choose from.  However all ammo is sold out.  Wisconsin guns are sold out and ammo available, Kansas City guns available and ammo sold out.  When the next stimulus check comes he said line will be several hours even in KC to buy additional guns. 

Offline baron88

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2020, 08:57:06 PM »
The potential danger I see there is too many people who never shoot a gun before are now armed.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: DOW Sharp Decline from 29,551 on 2/12/2020 to 19,901 on 3/18/2020
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2020, 10:41:15 PM »
There are many places to learn how to shoot.     People that are not armed today are called targets.     Look at PDX and SEA.    I will never travel to those once beautiful cities.      Fortunately i grew up in the sticks and we had gun safety training about age 14.   Back then the area was rural and it was OK for young teenagers to carry .22 rifles into school then storing them in the principals office until school ended.     Our Junior High School principal taught us gun safety.   I know how to shoot and kill wildlife even w/ small caliber.    Choose not to, live and let live so i stopped hunting.     In today's world it would be wise to own and understand hand guns, rifles, etc....