Author Topic: NGC Population reaches 3M for China  (Read 1033 times)

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Offline 1668Chris

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NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« on: September 01, 2019, 09:39:58 AM »
Not sure if anyone has noticed but populations for MCC has significantly increased.  Certain coin I track have had populations triple in some cases.  This is helpful because it gives better insight into rarity and data.  Coins once thought very scarce may not be anymore. For example pops for 1993 1/10 platinum panda have gone from about 25 in a 69 grade to almost 70. And now 1996 1/10 is on par with the 1993.  I’m sure there are many more.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2019, 02:31:24 PM »
Some pops are still increasing slowly . . . the ones I care about anyway :)

But yeah, 1/10ths are not super rare, whochbis part of the reason they are fun to collect. You can actually find them reasonably easily, and cheaply! I like 1/10ths.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2019, 04:00:33 PM »
Yes, they are fun to collect and largely approachable price wise but the following Gold Panda coin examples may take your breath away:

1992 Proof
1994 Proof
1995 LD and SD
1998 LD and SD
2002
2006

*This is not an exhaustive list.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2019, 12:03:52 AM »
You got me interested in looking at key date 1/2 pops from 1990-2000.  The range of total grades for a given year is 340 to 481, that is a small difference from year to year, yet prices range from $900 to $9000.  In the last year, the coin that has been the most difficult to acquire is 1996, only been offered 1 for the entire year vs 4-12 of the other dates.  In a bull market I would assume that someone is quietly accumulating them, but in a bear market who knows what is going on.  The easiest coins to acquire are 1990-1993, yet as the pops show they are just as rare relative to the king 1995.  Interpreting pop reports is harder now than it was in the early days. 

1990 PANDA    G50Y   MS   393
1991 PANDA    G50Y   MS   345
1992 PANDA    G50Y   MS   383
1993 PANDA    G50Y   MS   360
1994 PANDA    G50Y   MS   340
1995 PANDA    G50Y   MS   356
1996 PANDA    G50Y   MS   405
1997 PANDA    G50Y   MS   446
1998 PANDA    G50Y   MS   470
1999 PANDA    G50Y   MS   481
2000 PANDA    G50Y   MS   458

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 07:32:48 AM »
NGC grades about 2 million coins/medals a year?
China has how many offices for NGC and PCGS?      Was it 6 offices in China for PCGS?
Coins are being graded first as expected.      I see pop increases w/ medals too like the 1986 12 oz HK Expo silver panda now has PF 69 w/ 12 pop.     A few years ago it was about 4 pop.     Did Arif sell or have his big stash of HK Expos graded?
1985 Palace Museum silver medal w/ 200 mint still has a pop of about 55 to 60?
1984 Silver Pagoda pop continues to climb slowly but how many were cracked out/regraded years ago?       IF numbers are fairly accurate then about 1/2 the pop of 260 will be graded so more survived then estimated.
Many collectors scour ebay and elsewhere looking for undiscovered/unknown medals (coins have been picked thru for the most part).      Very few appear on ebay now.       It seems many are looking for cheap rarity w/ potential.
Even w/ high pop numbers of several hundred for gold pandas, it is a drop in the bucket when this market takes off and collectors want them.
The market is no longer semi immature.   What do we call it now?

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2019, 07:57:12 AM »
Oops, forgot this...
I sent China Mint a email about the big melt in 1995?   
China Mint cannot find any information.       Could this information back then also be given/mailed to other individuals, companies or local & national government offices/people?       Maybe others could have this information stored somewhere.       Very valuable information so every possible lead should be investigated.       IF that list is ever found this would help our surviving pop numbers greatly......

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2019, 05:20:09 PM »
Looks like even 200y series numbers are quite low and in most cases lower than 1990s.  Except 2016-2018 are probably going to the melt along with 1985-1988.  2008 spike was due to one distributor submitting 400 sets for telemarketing, those sets are slow to come back to the market, maybe 10 a year.   

2001 PANDA   G200Y   MS   391
2002 PANDA   G200Y   MS   239
2003 PANDA   G200Y   MS   300
2004 PANDA   G200Y   MS   281
2005 PANDA   G200Y   MS   214
2006 Panda   G200Y   MS   241
2007 PANDA   G200Y   MS   231
2008 PANDA   G200Y   MS   626
2009 PANDA   G200Y   MS   390
2010 PANDA   G200Y   MS   219
2011 PANDA   G200Y   MS   331
2012 Panda   G200Y   MS   479
2013 Panda   G200Y   MS   509
2014 Panda   G200Y   MS   402
2015 PANDA   G200Y   MS   367
2016 Panda    G200Y   MS   17,163
2017 PANDA   G200Y   MS   13,066
2018 Panda   G200Y   MS   5,559
2019 Panda   G200Y   MS   1,279

As for medals, they are rare but the collector base is equally rare, it will take some clever marketing from the medal hoarders to sell at higher prices.  2011 was the perfect storm with record gold prices, Chinese coins prices and many newbies entering the market that didn't know how the market worked and pushed medal prices to the stratosphere.  Will a similar storm occur once gold breaks $2000, nobody knows.


Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2019, 07:20:39 AM »
I own mostly coins but i like medals a lot due to low mint.      Coins will rule and in the long run medals will have their day.      Hopefully i am done selling and have only sold a few on ebay.       Medals are not for flippers...

The 1985 Palace Museum w/ 200 mint and 1981 Lu Xun w/ 5,033  silver medals both have about 55 to 60 NGC pop?

It looks like bullion is on the march up and there will be shortages like about 10 yrs ago when all local coin shops had zero inventory....

Offline pandamonium

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Re: NGC Population reaches 3M for China
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2019, 07:06:40 AM »
I think there are a lot more medal collectors today.      Many that collected coins are also collecting medals.    This was not the case a few years ago but people have diversified.     The people that just collect medals and not coins are a very rare collector base.      We keep reading comments that rarity will rule in the long run and rarity is medals.      Anyhow it is a lot of fun and lets see how the market plays out....