Topic: Hot market for older chinese coins?

[Birdman]

I was skimming through the results of the recent Stacks Auction in Hong Kong.

http://archive.stacksbowers.com/?q=3e7f2afd-3cff-4411-a190-55fb325dcd7e

https://auctions.stacksbowers.com/lots/view/3-BF3XJ  CHINA. Kweichow. Auto Dollar, Year 17 (1928). NGC EF-45.  Estimate $6000-$8000.  Sold for $12000.

I haven't been following the market for these older coins, but it seems like it is hot now (In contrast to Modern Chinese Coins).  A question for those of you who have been following the action.  What is the pulse of the market?  Might this be a good time to trim a few nice pieces, or do things seem to only be getting started, and has the availability of quality pieces dried up, so that prices look likely to spike further?  I'd appreciate your thoughts, as I have a few coins in my collection that I bought many years ago that I could part with and that seem to be in demand now.

With the China-USA tariff skirmishes, there seems to be a higher likelihood of an economic downturn now than a few years ago.  On a simple level, a recession in China wouldn't likely help coin prices, but there are always many moving parts and variables.  I don't have a crystal ball, and I'm tempted to trim my holdings a little, but before I make any moves, I'd be curious to hear some thinking of the experts :)

[Birdman]

Since no one who is experienced with the older Chinese coins responded, I guess I'll have to make an independent decision.  I spent some time looking at current NGC census data and compiled a few screenshots for several of the coins I have (see attached).  I compared it to the data for one of the "key dates" of the US Morgan Silver Dollar, the 1893S.  Wow, I am struck by the scarcity of the old China silver dollars.  Yes, I know that people have been grading the old China coins for a shorter amount of time, but with numerous fakes for coins like the Kweichow auto dollar, there is extreme incentive to get the authentic coins graded in order to sell. 

Another consideration is that the 1893S, looks just like the other morgan dollars except for the date and the mint mark, the Auto Dollar, the 1908 Y-14 dollar, and others have distinctive and interesting designs.  They also have some very interesting stories https://www.money.org/blog/1928AutoDollar

My conclusion.  For the moment, I am going to hold on to my better China silver dollars.  The coins have appreciated in price over the past ten years, and there is a temptation to take some gains.  And, we may be in for some downs and ups in the market, but I like my chances on the 10-20 year horizon.

Instead, I trimmed some of my holdings in the stock market this week to steady myself for any turmoil in the world financial markets.  I'm still curious what others people are thinking regarding the older china coins, as they are not my specialty, and I have much to learn.

[pandamonium]

My knowledge is very limited to some reading and what i see for sale or sold on ebay.       It is interesting to see who is bidding (that are private bidders) and what they bid on.      Ebay says "private listing-bidder's identity protected".     Sellers and others say most of these are Chinese bidders.         I have posted on badon's site about the small silver dragons mostly Kwangtung 10C & 20 C or Yunnan 50 C or Sun Yat Sen for about 2 plus years.      These small Empire silvers are affordable for my collector group and the silver dollar market took off long ago.     Prices for these small silver dragons/Sun Yat Sen are up and few are 99 cent auctions to start.      Today i see Chinese bidders on these small dragons and they did not bid in the past.     Supply is low?      I also see many bids for most all early year Vintage coins even in poor condition and not silver.     Once in a while a "cleaned" or detail small dragon will sell for under $15 to $20.     Due to rising prices i tell my friends to bid on ANACS and ICG too as both are good graders.    Any other opinions on these 2 graders?         I think inventory is getting very low and demand from China for Vintage is growing....         

[pandamonium]

My mistake as i called ebay.       Sellers on ebay can make bidders private idenity protected.      Not all are Chinese bidders.....

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Vintage coin market is starting to softening in USD terms.  RMB has taken a 10% hit against the USD in the last two months, which has caused USD prices to soften for both modern and vintage.  USD is the king of the world and nothing seems to weaken it. 

Selling stock is a better approach, I bailed 75% of holdings at end of July and hope to buy back in the next couple of months if nice correction hits the market. 

I am at ANA show tomorrow, looking to find some nice coins, this period seems a lot like late 2008 to late 2009 when opportunity to buy rare coins was present at many shows, I doubt I will be that lucky as most of the material is back in China now. 

[r3globe]

My conclusion.  For the moment, I am going to hold on to my better China silver dollars.  The coins have appreciated in price over the past ten years, and there is a temptation to take some gains.  And, we may be in for some downs and ups in the market, but I like my chances on the 10-20 year horizon.

I think you are making the right decision. The next wave up will yield much much much higher prices (3 much's). Meanwhile,2018-2021, the king of all assets will be the US Dollar denominated non-government liquid assets (includes US shares) . Everything in US dollars terms will go down. That is not what most are expecting, and that is why it will happen!

[poconopenn]

As today, gold is below $1200 and silver is about $15, about 8% decrease during last 60 days. Since May, China stock market has been down about 20% and RMB devalued about 10%. This is a clear indication that the current collectible market, especially Chinese PM coins, is for buyers, not for sellers.

[pandamonium]

If gold/silver can be manipulated down further then Chinese coins/medals will drop too.
If the trade war causes the Yuan to drop then Chinese coins/medals will drop more.

Iran and Turkey currency is falling but gold there is going up big like in Venezuela.     King Dollar will rein for the time being..

If this backfires and the world turns to gold/silver then it could explode up like it should have years ago, IF the markets were fair.
Up/down  up/down, until control over bullion/currencies are lost.    Who knows when?   Maybe the IMF will come out and revalue the USD and the Yuan?   Guess we will find out.....

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

As I suspected, ANA was not a great show to buy at, only few offerings worth considering.  Did sell every coin i wanted to sell, except a few ms69 1/2 which I rather keep at todays levels. Will try again on Thursday to see if dealers loosen up on the sales side.

[pandamonium]

Please post more details about the ANA show when you leave....

[rubio2507]

I recently talked with a student from Rheims (France). She told me that there are now the Chinese who buy the vineyards and châteaus for "cheap"...

I believe that America best days are long beyond nevertheless what Trump says....

In Trump´s view the world has four major powers, which are the US, the EU, Russia and China. Russia is the weakest power, Europe is flooded with foreign people and the decline of the welfare state is obvious....

China will be the new Emperor, especially when they can pay for Iranian oil with Yuans instead of Dollars.

Oil is the lifeline of the USA. And as we know from history at school lessons, every empire has expanted and dominated in economics until it collapsed....

There have been 3141 Morgan dollars 1893 S graded at NGC. And how many of this issue have been graded at PCGS?

How many Kweichow (Guizhou) Auto Dollars have been minted in 1928?  I suppose it was less than 3141 pieces. Nevertheless only a few were minted in Kweichow/Kweiyang and most of them were minted in Szechuan. So you have all the varieties in weight, Chinese characters, the Automobile design, dot over the roof, 2 or 3 blades of gras... This is which makes collecting interesting...

Chines silver dollars circulated until 1949. The are worn out in most cases, history in your hand. Not just silver from Nevada....

I am not interested in the stock market nor in Turkish Lira or in Venezuelas Bolivar currency, so gold will be the best choise...

What I see on the horizon is a great war in the Near East.

[pandamonium]

Agreed, China is buying up the world and they have a 200 million man army w/ superior weapons to defend their investments.
China is the new Emperor, that is why we are buying rare Chinese coins/medals and this forum (and badon's Coin Compendium Forum) will soon explode in popularity when the world wakes up to Chinese money.      Articles i have posted in the past say China has over 20 tons of gold.   US claims 8 tons but that is long gone due to corruption and fake news.     China also has a gold army that finds gold, etc.. and no one disputes the 20 tons of gold claim yet.   
jsmineset articles today say we are now in the time frame...

[rubio2507]

 
I hope China has 2000 tons of gold.... And they are getting more and more gold from Africa (Ashanti gold Fields in Ghana)...

If China adopts the gold standard, US Dollar bills will be not much more than green paper.....

In long term china will get great parts of Siberia