Author Topic: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in  (Read 698 times)

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Offline pandamonium

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Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« on: June 17, 2018, 10:04:32 AM »
I stumbled across this article by Adam Doolittle on Silver Monthly  "The 10 worst silver coins for investment".      He says Chinese Silver Pandas are one of them.   Of course we disagree and Adam has not studied this market.   There maybe other articles that are similar but this one is enough for me.    I also contacted GATA (besides many others) and they agree w/ me that Chinese coins/medals have a big upside....

However, there are Chinese coins/medals that are a very poor investment too.     

Please list the Chinese that you think are totally a stupid buy.....

Offline wg

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2018, 05:12:17 PM »

Offline eric

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2018, 04:42:51 PM »
The ones that I would probably avoid from a purely investment standpoint are the proliferation of recent high mintage medals, especially those minted by non-official mints. As a panda collector, I'm still buying some of them because of FOMO (which is why they keep making more). Some of the coin show pandas have gotten ridiculous too, with so many varieties and minting more than they can sell at the show. I think the upside potential on a lot of those is pretty limited, because they're trying to make more profit up front. But IMO there are still some good medals being made too, with smaller mintages, good design, etc.

Some of the older coin show medals have proven that the scarcity factor can really kick in with collectors, such as 1988 Cincinnati ANA, and the 1990's Munich shows. But even though some of the new ones are small mintage in the range of 50-500, it seems they are watering down the market with too many options...  fractional silver, one ounce, bi-metallic, tri-metallic, copper, brass, etc.

It's easier for me to pass on some of the private mint medals being sponsored by one vendor. But as a collector I'm finding it very frustrating to see the amount of medals being given the "Official Panda Issue" designation, which means you "have" to have it for your collection to be complete. I feel like they've jumped the shark on that one and are burning out collectors which is not good for the market in the short term.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #3 on: June 23, 2018, 07:24:57 AM »
New issue low mint medals have gotten a lot of bad opinions/press.      I always promote early issue.     Years ago private mint vs official mint were black and white.    Today as more info comes out it seems to be a grey area.      Artists from official mints also work for private mints.      Could someone else please provide more info on this?       Some early issue private mint medals seem to have good demand now and are a good buy.     Early issue (private and official) will see more increased demand/price but information on all early issue is very hard to dig up.     A few years ago most ebay sellers/collectors all said coins.   Today the majority of them collect medals now too.....

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2018, 07:30:44 PM »
The most optimistic one can be of the medal market is to say that it is currently in flux. Early issue medals seem to be doing much better than recent issue, low mintage, multiple format privately sponsored medals.

Medals add a lot of welcome variety to a coin collection but as has been highlighted in posts elsewhere the sudden massive output of high cost medals in the last few years may have shaken collectors’ confidence in that genre. However, it is still possible for some of them to turn out to be gems in future.

My hope is that medal sponsors shall become more restrained in the number and variety of medals they output. Furthermore, the current front loaded large profit making approach needs to be changed to another model that shares in the fortunes of the medal product on a more long term basis.
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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 12:08:57 AM »
I draw the line at 2010, any medal or coin issued after 2010 I am no longer keeping as part of my personal collection.  I still buy and sell some post 2011 medals if I trust the distributor will not dump into the market or rip people off before and during the show release.  As a general rule I only handle medals that were issued by US distributors, any distributed by Asia or Europe based distributors I completely avoid.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2018, 07:41:15 AM »
Ebay photo, not mine.   This is a 2010 medal Gilt Tiger w/ crystal eyes and only newer issue i have.     For whatever reason no one on ebay bid last yr so it was very cheap.    As a Color silver lunar it is worth collecting for me.       Early issue medals have real potential now as more collect them.       
Another medal i find interesting is this 1982 copper dog from Proof set.     Ebay photo but mine as it was very cheap, scratches?     No Proof set medals on ebay now.    As the Proof sets rise in value why not the medals in the set?.....

Offline eric

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2018, 03:58:12 PM »
I draw the line at 2010, any medal or coin issued after 2010 I am no longer keeping as part of my personal collection.  I still buy and sell some post 2011 medals if I trust the distributor will not dump into the market or rip people off before and during the show release.  As a general rule I only handle medals that were issued by US distributors, any distributed by Asia or Europe based distributors I completely avoid.

As a collector/investor/dealer don't you find it disheartening that you don't consider post-2010 to be a good investment? In order for the market to keep growing,  and thus raising the demand/value of our pre-2010 stuff, don't we need new collectors to keep joining the game, which means we need new products each year that are worth buying? 10-15 years from now who is going to be buying those pre-2010 coins?

In other words, it seems like a lot of this new stuff is really bad for the entire MCC market, right? I don't mean to bring negativity into the forum, but the way I see it, we might as well discuss it if we hope to see change. I doubt the China mint is going to change the way they're doing bullion these days, but hopefully at least some medal sponsors will take these opinions into consideration. (As an aside, since he's an active member here, I do think PA's valentine medals are done well and have bought a couple of each. And I suppose he would fit your criteria of a US distributor--although I do think the near-term profit is pretty well built into the price.)

But I find the barrage of "official" and non-official mint products to be confusing. The 2001 small-D controversy also left a really bad taste in my mouth. It feels like collectors have to have a huge body of knowledge (and what seems like insider info) in order to be successful in MCC. On the one hand, it's fun and natural for those on the inside to find the varieties and rarities, and cash in on their knowledge. To some extent, all coin collecting is like that even in the big genres like Lincoln pennies, and Morgan dollars. But there also seems to be an inherent simplicity in those markets compared to MCC. If I'm buying American Eagles, I'm not going to worry that a certain year and mint mark is going to suddenly be fake.

With MCC, I'm still buying, but not as much as I used to, because my trust level is fairly low. I have a big collection, so I'm still HOPING for the best. But what needs to happen to see this market rebound to new levels?

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2018, 07:13:46 PM »
Keep in mind I am just one collector expressing an opinion about what I feel comfortable holding, others will find opportunity where I refuse to look.  Also, I consider liquidity an important aspect of owning these coins, I prefer to own coins that I think I can sell easily if I need to raise money for another investment.  If given the choice to own a 1988 5oz gold panda or 2012 5oz gold show panda, I will choose the 1988 despite a little higher survival because the market for the 1988 is liquid, while the show panda is only liquid near melt pricing.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2018, 11:44:36 PM »
Not to state the obvious but different colloectors have varied collection strategies and I can see the merits of choosing and picking from the pre-2010 gold panda coins. However there are serial collectors who are still buying the post-2010 gold panda coins up till date. Again the newest releases are (obviously) bullion on release. But earlier releases were also classified bullion on release. As long as one is buying as close to spot as possible I would pick up a few each year.

I am not collecting with a plan to liquidate core holdings anytime soon. So there is enough time to enjoy the ride. Nothing about coin collection is cut and dried (IMO).
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Offline eric

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2018, 12:11:46 AM »
Keep in mind I am just one collector expressing an opinion about what I feel comfortable holding, others will find opportunity where I refuse to look.

True but I believe you are one of the more knowledgeable collectors on the planet, LOL :-)
Makes sense about liquidity.

However there are serial collectors who are still buying the post-2010 gold panda coins up till date. Again the newest releases are (obviously) bullion on release. But earlier releases were also classified bullion on release. As long as one is buying as close to spot as possible I would pick up a few each year.

Yes I'm one of them, and I hope there are many others like me. I also hope that new serial collectors will keep joining the game, because then they'll have to go back and collect the old ones to complete their collection. The bullion coins can be bought for relatively close to spot, but all the new special editions and various medals are WAY over spot, like 10X in the case of many silver medals. And that brings it back to the question of the OP. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Worst Chinese Coins/Medals to invest in
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2018, 08:09:45 AM »
The market will decide, right now too many new issue medals.      A yr or 2 ago some experts told me they are considered trinkets.     As the Petro Yuan gains ground and Chinese money draws interest then all Chinese coins/medals will see appreciation.     The early years are the best bet.....