Poll

How much should a dealer offer a customer at a show or shop for 2016 5 piece (30g, 15g, 8g, 3g, 1g) gold panda set NGC MS70 early release

98% of melt
5 (55.6%)
101% of melt
3 (33.3%)
104% of melt
0 (0%)
107% of melt
0 (0%)
110% of melt
1 (11.1%)

Total Members Voted: 9

Voting closed: March 04, 2018, 12:37:05 AM

Author Topic: Recent gold panda pricing question  (Read 835 times)

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Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Recent gold panda pricing question
« on: March 01, 2018, 12:37:05 AM »
Here is a pricing question many of dealers are facing these days with new issue coins coming into the marketplace after customers have paid large premiums of 120%-200% of melt.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2018, 02:23:47 AM »
There's no right answer to this poll. The dealer should choose whatever markup works for him or her to make a bit of profit without gouging the customer.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2018, 12:31:33 PM »
There are correct answers, figure out what you can sell it for and then back out reasonable profit margin calculate a bid. I will disclose the current market answer at end of the poll.

Offline bonke

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2018, 01:24:17 PM »
A recent sale on ebay shows a price of $2600.  Subtract 10% expenses and net $2340.  With spot at $1320, spot value of 57 grams is $2420.  Bid 98% of spot ($2370) and lose $30. 

If this is a good customer and if this customer has a significant collection or "hoard" of modern or old Chinese coins, bid as high as necessary to keep the customer from developing a relationship with a competitor.  "Better to lose a dollar today to gain much more than a dollar in the future."

Mark Bonke


Online PandaCollector

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2018, 02:25:35 PM »
Here is a pricing question many of dealers are facing these days with new issue coins coming into the marketplace after customers have paid large premiums of 120%-200% of melt.

When I was young some of the best advice about coins I ever got was to sell something every year. The selling process brings hard reality to coin values. Over time, as a collector, I learned how to evaluate coins like a dealer. That was a key to success. It's sad when you meet somebody who was told a cock-and-bull story and imagines their collection is far more valuable than it is. In Long Beach last week a dealer told me a story about somebody in that predicament. The spread was far more than 200% and the would-be seller was shattered by the news. The dealer felt terrible about it and so did I.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com`

Offline poconopenn

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2018, 04:02:47 PM »
The mintage of 2016 gold panda set is 600,000 and about 4% were graded and about 3% were graded as MS70. Therefore, there is very limited numismatic premium for MS70. In later 2015, the gold price was about $1070. For the set, the gold value is about $1960 and the when issue price for the set was about $2160. If the dealer bought 2016 set in later 2015 or earlier 2016, the bid 98% of current spot ($2370) still could net about $150, after the deduction of grading and overhead cost.

If dollar moves up, back to the same level of earlier 2016, the chance of gold price drops to $1100 in the next six months is highly possible. There is a high probability for dealer to pick up this set at a lower price in the future, sometime this year. 2016 gold panda should be treated as bullion at this moment. In order to have some numismatic premium of 2016 set, China Mint has to keep mintage of gold panda more than 1 MM for the next 10 years.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 12:07:53 AM »
A recent sale on ebay shows a price of $2600.  Subtract 10% expenses and net $2340.  With spot at $1320, spot value of 57 grams is $2420.  Bid 98% of spot ($2370) and lose $30. 

If this is a good customer and if this customer has a significant collection or "hoard" of modern or old Chinese coins, bid as high as necessary to keep the customer from developing a relationship with a competitor.  "Better to lose a dollar today to gain much more than a dollar in the future."

Mark Bonke

Mark you can't give away the answer key while the exam is still in progress.  Mark is correct on all fronts and the unfortunate truth is even 98% of melt is too much to pay in the current market if you have to sell on ebay.  I can sell most bullion items at melt so for me 98% is reasonable price to pay to someone that I have long relationship of buying key date coins from, while from a stranger 95% might be the correct answer. 

It is hard for me to believe current gold pandas are selling for below melt, but that is what happens when they produce more supply than number of collectors. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Recent gold panda pricing question
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 08:34:01 AM »
US mint sales lowest in a decade.  Trend has been in place since Donald came to office.  It would be great if Chinese mints would provide the same info on a monthly basis, I bet they too might be at multi year lows, this is why backdated pandas from 2015-2017 are cheaper than 2018.  Peter likes 2017 1/2, I am thinking 2018 1/2 might be even rarer, a situation I could not have imagined 9 months ago.  With retail investors dishoarding gold for the last year, I wonder who is buying to keep it at $1320 which is almost at a yearly peak. 

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-03-01/Feb-U-S-Mint-Coin-Sales-Weak-Dishoarding-Premiums-Behind-Decline.html