Poll

Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling MCC?

I'm selectively buying undervalued items
12 (48%)
I'm buying aggressively
0 (0%)
I'm just watching the market
5 (20%)
I'm selling (some or all of) my MCC
3 (12%)
I'm always selling and buying
5 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 25

Voting closed: March 08, 2018, 03:29:40 PM

Author Topic: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?  (Read 3125 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+23)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1786
  • Karma: 56
  • Gender: Male
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2018, 06:32:48 AM »
I haven’t bought much so far except for some of the 2018 panda coins. My collection interest is much narrower now than earlier on. I have also bought some other country mint products.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
  • Karma: 204
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2018, 12:16:31 AM »
Finally hit auspicious feedback score on ebay. 

In past years the market starts heating up after Chinese New Year, this year it took a few extra weeks and finally the last week some fresh money from investors has stepped in.  It is not clear if they saw opportunity, decided to move on from cryptocurrencies or have insight about future master set orders.  I picked up more coins in the last week than previous 4 months combined simply because prices at wholesale level are getting stronger, which allows me to buy coins that previously were sidelined for better times.  The big change I am seeing in the market is collectors are still watching, while purly investors  are buying up opportunistically. 

This survey has done a good job of identifying that 50% are buying opportunistically.  Looking forward to seeing how the next month turns out, if demand really does come back I am expecting a spike as very little omp material exist in weak hands, if demand remains weak, then flat will be the theme for the coming months.

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 37
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2018, 07:32:16 AM »
Low MCC inventory in the US and Germany (probably worldwide as Asia -not China- is out of Chinese).   More collectors are discovering Chinese coins/medals worldwide because China has the economy and owns the gold.    China is sumo wrestling the 100 + yr old London Gold Price Fix to be gold price controlled by the East.   China has tested their Gold backed Petro Yuan and it is ready to go by end of this month March.    Who knows when, but the stars are aligned for Chinese collectibles and Chinese have the buying power.    I think this is finally the year.....

Offline bonke

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 471
  • Karma: 34
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2018, 10:18:44 AM »
After reading the comment about limited inventory of modern Chinese coins is the USA, Europe, etc., I visited Ebay and searched for modern Chinese gold coins and perused the list from most expensive down.  It appears Xu Hong and a few other Chinese dealers are willing to sell me a wide array of low mintage, high quality, modern Chinese coins.  After my seach, I felt a sense of comfort.  With a little money, I can buy anything I want for my collection and have someone ship it to me from Shanghai.  The rich Chinese businessman is not buying all of the inventory in the PRC, leaving a massive amount of the inventory for foreign collectors.  Just a thought from a small collector.  Now, I can relax and enjoy being a collector.

Mark Bonke

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
  • Karma: 204
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2018, 01:17:05 PM »
Collectors are not participating and that means collector type coins may not move for some time.  My comments were for gold panda in particular, there I don't see many collectors participate regardless because the main demand driver is master set formation and that is controlled by investors and dealers.  Also spreads between varieties is still at 10 year lows, that is a clear sign all demand is investor driven with the goal of exiting to master set developers.

See the graph below, we have already gone through the full cycle a few times since 1982 and now we are back to stealth
 and awareness phase, for the public or collectors to come back it will take 20%-40% price movement from here to get them interested and those that do get interested will not be the same as those that bought in the public phase last time and got burnt holding too long, instead they will watch from the sidelines and miss the opportunity completely.

Cyrtocurrenicens we maybe at fear and capitulation phase, if that turns out to be correct, then when despair finally hits some of those investors will return to physical coins (bullion and numismatics).

For fun take look at a 2004 auction, I only wish I was smart enough to be aware back then, but it was a shealth market and only the smart money knew.
https://www.liveauctioneers.com/catalog/1117_estate-jewelry-pocket-watches-and-gold-coins/  items 62-123.  I would like the chance to buy items 87, 90, 91 for $3K plus premium 19.5%/each.  Item 86 is a real gem, but I know I would never put that much into a single coin back then, so I don't feel bad for missing that one. 

Offline 1668Chris

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+12)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
  • Karma: 37
    • Coin Armour
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2018, 05:35:38 AM »
After reading the comment about limited inventory of modern Chinese coins is the USA, Europe, etc., I visited Ebay and searched for modern Chinese gold coins and perused the list from most expensive down.  It appears Xu Hong and a few other Chinese dealers are willing to sell me a wide array of low mintage, high quality, modern Chinese coins.  After my seach, I felt a sense of comfort.  With a little money, I can buy anything I want for my collection and have someone ship it to me from Shanghai.  The rich Chinese businessman is not buying all of the inventory in the PRC, leaving a massive amount of the inventory for foreign collectors.  Just a thought from a small collector.  Now, I can relax and enjoy being a collector.

Mark Bonke

Apart from Xuhong a better option are the Stack’s and Heritage auctions held in Hong Kong.  These auctions are easily accessible via the web, selection is very good and pricing is also very good.  Plus shipping is done from US.  This April is Stacks and they have 2 sessions on MCC.  One is a live event and one is internet only.  I have found some of my best pieces at these events.  Finally there is also the Champion Auction in Macau that is also online but selection of MCC has been very poor to nonexistent the past several auctions. 

Offline pandamonium

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (0)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2258
  • Karma: 37
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2018, 08:11:03 AM »
The 2004 auction photos and prices are amazing.      I did not start stacking silver until 2007, same time i bought my first silver pandas.      Today, the stars are aligned for Chinese coins/medals.   
A few silver stackers have told me they sold or are selling their gold/silver to spend on vacation or other stupid stuff.    These weak hands have given up.    Don't people read?    Chinese have buying power now.....

Offline bonke

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 471
  • Karma: 34
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #22 on: March 09, 2018, 08:38:15 AM »
Chris

Thanks for the suggestion about the Stacks, Bowers & Ponterio auction.  When possible, I try to attend these auctions and watch the live bidding.  I have trouble bidding on the internet auctions (due to computer issues) when I am in Kowloon so I probably miss the best opportunities to add items to my collection.  I probably should stay at home and participate from my home computer.  When I stay at home, the auctions occur in the middle of the night (mountain standard time) and I fall asleep.  Hmmmm.  Maybe, I am not really destined to have a larger collection of coins.

Mark Bonke

Offline tater

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+1)
  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 166
  • Karma: 2
  • Gender: Male
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2018, 10:36:23 AM »
Chris

Thanks for the suggestion about the Stacks, Bowers & Ponterio auction.  When possible, I try to attend these auctions and watch the live bidding.  I have trouble bidding on the internet auctions (due to computer issues) when I am in Kowloon so I probably miss the best opportunities to add items to my collection.  I probably should stay at home and participate from my home computer.  When I stay at home, the auctions occur in the middle of the night (mountain standard time) and I fall asleep.  Hmmmm.  Maybe, I am not really destined to have a larger collection of coins.

Mark Bonke

I too am plagued by that mountain standard time and I have never been able to get a snipe program to work right.  Oh well I'll keep putting in my bid that I am willing to pay and let it ride.

Offline 1668Chris

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+12)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 731
  • Karma: 37
    • Coin Armour
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #24 on: March 09, 2018, 12:08:24 PM »
I’m on EST so it’s even more difficult for me.  But I do tend to stay awake and bid on the coins that I want. 

Offline bonke

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 471
  • Karma: 34
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2018, 01:20:26 PM »
At home, in good faith, I sign in and patiently watch the auction.  Within an hour, my eyes are closing.  I drink diet Coca Cola, hoping the caffeine will keep me awake.  It does not.  I enter my bids, go to sleep and always awaken to a list of coins which I did not purchase.  Frustrating.  I wonder why the companies are accomodating the local bidders in Kowloon when they could schedule the auctions to meet my needs.

Mark Bonke

Offline PandaCollector

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2607
  • Karma: 82
  • Gender: Male
    • Pandacollector.com
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2018, 06:35:24 PM »
I would just leave my bids with Stack's-Bowers & Ponterio (or Heritage, or Steve Album, for instance). Unlike a couple of other auction houses I do not hear complaints about them running up bids to the maximum pre-sale bids. OTOH, I have heard dealers talk (with passion!) to each other on this subject and warn each other other to never bid in advance with some other companies. I wonder what other people's experiences have been, good or bad.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

P.S. I am not implying this is a problem with every other auctioneer.

Offline bonke

  • Trade Count: (+2)
  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 471
  • Karma: 34
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #27 on: March 10, 2018, 12:59:37 PM »
I have already placed bids in the upcoming Stacks Bowers & Ponterio auction in Kowloon and I am already the losing bidder on 6 items.  This does not portend well for my success in buying Chinese coins or currency in this auction.  Have other forum members already placed bids in any of the various Sessions of this auction?   If so, maybe, you are the bidder or bidders who have already outbid me in this auction.

Mark Bonke

Offline fwang2450

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+5)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1042
  • Karma: 172
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #28 on: March 10, 2018, 01:27:12 PM »
I have been buying circulating coins, mainly Fen coins, with the help of buddies in China. The landscape of circulating coins (not circulating commemoratives) is very different from the precious metal coins. Prices are actually turning up at the moment, after a lull in the past few years.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

  • Supporter
  • Trade Count: (+15)
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 936
  • Karma: 204
  • Gender: Male
    • China Mint Coins, LLC
Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #29 on: March 10, 2018, 03:25:20 PM »
I assume all the auctions houses will take the bid up to mine and then I either win at my max price or another real buyer takes its.  I don't mind auction houses shill bidding against me because the bid I put in is the price I am willing to pay.  I don't stay up to watch, just bid and let it ride, for most coins I know where the other dealers bids will land so I want to bid early and lock that price in so they have to take it up another increment if they really want it.  It is in the best interest of the auction house to bid up prices so they can collect a larger bidder premium and I always assume they will play towards their best interest.

I have watched over the years auction houses shill bid up to mail order or internet bid, one auctioneer in HK literally looks at the ceiling and points at the sky as he increments prices until the mail order price is reached and then announced sold to book at $$.  Another auction in the US I sat directly behind the book computer and internet computer admins, everytime book bid was higher than internet, an internet bidder emerged, once book bid was reached, internet bidder disappeared, then it came down to floor bidder vs book bidder, say this occur for 20+ items in a row.   Another auction house sometimes closes bidding so fast on some items that it appears they want the item to sell cheaply to a friend of the auction house at the expense of the consigner.   That same auction house also plays the other side, it has the consignor representative bid up an item to a crazy price, then the consigner sells at the show afterward an identical coin in a different slab or sometimes the same slab at slightly lower price than auction price a day earlier.  There are too many games that can be played during auctions that one just has to pick a price they are comfortable buying at and ignore all the shenanigans.  For some of these auction houses I simply no longer bid, because of all the horror stories about bidding manipulations, in accurate coin descriptions, consigners not getting paid, shipping charges excessive and shipping delays (one auction house took 2+ months to ship despite requesting  payment within 2 days).