Poll

Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling MCC?

I'm selectively buying undervalued items
12 (48%)
I'm buying aggressively
0 (0%)
I'm just watching the market
5 (20%)
I'm selling (some or all of) my MCC
3 (12%)
I'm always selling and buying
5 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 25

Voting closed: March 08, 2018, 03:29:40 PM

Author Topic: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?  (Read 2229 times)

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Offline Mirkkanen

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Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« on: March 01, 2018, 03:29:40 PM »
The forum is pretty quiet these days. Seems like we are in between cycles, or on the tail end of a down cycle. Prices seem pretty low. Just wondering what everyone is up to. Please respond as you see fit.

Offline Jens

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2018, 03:56:18 PM »
I'm mostly watching, sometimes offering some things but not in a hurry to sell those.
Market seems slow indeed, i might pick up something if the price is right but atm my attention is mostly on the crypto craze, i don't have invested much there but it is interesting to play around with it a little.

Offline Panda Halves

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2018, 09:08:31 PM »
Watching mostly. I did pick up a 2016 one of first 1000 struck piece though.

Offline Mirkkanen

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #3 on: March 02, 2018, 12:12:14 AM »
I have been watching the market for gold and silver pandas closely, but I haven't made a significant purchase for about 8 months or more.

That being said, I am hungry and I want to buy! I am seeing prices on semi keys and key dates (in gold) that we haven't seen for at least 18-24 months and I think we are nearing a bottom in this cycle. Picking up a 1997 1/2 for $2600, for example, is not bad as compared to the $4000+ it would have cost you last year. Picking up a 1994 1/2 for $4800 is not bad either, considering the range on that coin was between $6k and $10k last year. Still, you may be sitting on that nice purchase for a while. No guarantee it will revisit those higher prices any time soon.

Maybe I will become a selective buyer soon, but with so many nice coins available right now, it is hard to determine how to prioritize my funds.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #4 on: March 02, 2018, 12:18:25 AM »
My answer changes week to week, as of this morning I would say just watching all week, but tonight buying aggressively, because an investor needs to sell to pay business taxes.  The best strategy is to sit back and let the market make the decision for you, if opportunity to buy arises at profitable price, then buy, if opportunity to sell at profitable price, then sell, otherwise just watch during this slow period.   

Online PandaCollector

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2018, 02:41:47 AM »
I bought 3 modern Chinese coins, one Panda-themed USA medal and one French medal in Long Beach last week. I traded the USA medal for a Chinese one at the show. Rarely do I go to a coin show without buying something. The French medal was an unusual purchase for me, but the design (1920s or 30s) was too beautiful to pass up.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com`




Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2018, 12:03:23 PM »
I am constantly buying rare and unusual.  Anything from 1987 missing mintmark, 1992 high 2, errors, hard to find varieties.  Also, I can never pass up a good deal on a platinum panda when available.

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2018, 12:07:56 PM »
With the help of Nam Chong Cho, I purchased a General Guan Yu medal at the Long Beach show.  He saw the buying opportunity and helped me purchase this medal (while I was still enjoying the deep snow and cold weather at home).  As you may imagine, the market for these older medals is weak and there is no real competition for them.  Prices are still declining.

I have been selling silver American Eagles at multiple coin shows since last summer.  The demand for rolls or boxes of these coins is weak and difficult to sell retail or wholesale.  I have one more box to sell and then I will be free from this burdensome task.  I hope to never own silver bullion again.

I will be selling gold and platinum American Eagles during the next year.  I do not know if I will sell this bullion at coin shows or directly to dealers by mail.  I am undecided.  I thnk there is limited retail demand for this bullion (unless you have a well established website and customer list).

I agree with Peter.  Sell one or more coins each year.  I have found it very easy to buy coins and medals, and I have found it very difficult to sell them at any price.  As a collector, I am almost always selling at a loss.  Definitely, if this were a business, I would be bankrupt and starving.

Mark Bonke

Offline baron88

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2018, 11:36:48 AM »
I was buying aggressively in 2016,  but last year only bought one coin, and have been watching and observing the market ever since. I used to think the long term profit potential in MCC is huge, due their very limited supply, as compared to the population in China. Now I believe this concept is just a myth. That said, I am a buyer now if I can find great deals in key or semi key coins. For bullion, I would buy silver, because it is cheap compared to gold. Bullion coins will be back in demand, I believe, when price takes off. Now is definitely not the time to sell at a loss.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #9 on: March 03, 2018, 10:39:58 PM »
I am with Mark, I will never buy silver again, it is too bulky to deal with whether you take it to a show or ship.

Offline aragog

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2018, 08:28:57 AM »
As a collector, I am almost always selling at a loss.  Definitely, if this were a business, I would be bankrupt and starving.

Mark Bonke
\The same here. Whenever I was buying coins as a collector and then trying to sell, I was always on the short end. Basically, the reason for it is that I am affected with my prices, as I want the coin and ready to pay for it more than its intricate value at the specified time. And it would take years so the market value reches my wish price to get the coin.
On the other hand, when I buy the coin based on the knowledge of my previous area of interest that I am no longer passionate about, my knowledge allows me to buy the coins with 50% discount, so I can sell them almost at double price immediately. At present I wish I had a broader knowledge of numismatics, so can can make money based on my knowledge and buy more coins for my collection.
I am building my collection only from $$$ I earn from sold coins.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2018, 08:21:47 PM »
Collectors on average lose money simply because the transaction costs (bid/ask spread, dealer overhead, dealer opportunity cost of capital to hold inventory) are sizable in this industry, at least 10-20%. 

Almost every purchase I made as a collector whether it was sports cards or coins has lost money.  I am no longer collecting anything, just investing.  Investing requires you to buy things you don't want to collect but is priced so well that you can't say no, perfect example was Munich silver pandas, I was buying a gold panda collection from a collector at about 90% of market value, he also wanted me to buy a bunch silver Munich silver pandas, I didn't want them so I offered 50% of market value, he said fine, I got them graded, ended up selling the Munich lot at 400% profit, while the pandas I made like 15% profits. 

Online PandaCollector

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2018, 03:26:48 AM »
I used to think the long term profit potential in MCC is huge, due their very limited supply, as compared to the population in China. Now I believe this concept is just a myth.

The latest China Pricepedia visits a Chinese company that, among other things, sold out an issue of 2 gm gold on polymer souvenir notes. All sold inside the People's Republic; it was never offered outside the country. How many? 500,000 mintage. Gone. Used up a ton of gold – literally — and not even their top item.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com`

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2018, 07:40:42 AM »
2gm gold polymer notes is a good example.    Like China said they will not sell the world any coins/medals when their domestic market can buy them all up.....


Prices of bullion is still heavily manipulated.     It is a matter of time for bullion and the Chinese market to break out.     Weak hands are selling.    Strong hands are buying at these cheap prices...

Goldseek    listen to Alasdair Macleod   "Oil yuan futures to start later in the month...."

Many articles today point to China's gold holdings and upcoming gold backed Yuan.      We all have the right to take it seriously or view it as conspiracy theory.     I agree w/ many authors that this is the year for gold/silver to break out......

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2018, 08:21:06 AM »
Peter

Your example shows the significant change in China.  For several years in this century, China Philatelic sold gold stamps with 3 or 3.1 grams of gold.  These gold stamps were low mintage items and would remain unsold in the China Post offices in Beijing from month to month.  I bought several for my stamp collection and my older brother's stamp collection.  As a foreigner, this opportunity was readily available.  This opportunity should no longer exist in the new world in which 500,000 gold notes are sold out.  I wonder if these notes were sold to the average person or to one of the new wealthy Chinese businessmen?

Mark Bonke

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2018, 06:32:48 AM »
I haven’t bought much so far except for some of the 2018 panda coins. My collection interest is much narrower now than earlier on. I have also bought some other country mint products.
KeepOnTrying and Never Give Up!
That lion is also after you!

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2018, 12:16:31 AM »
Finally hit auspicious feedback score on ebay. 

In past years the market starts heating up after Chinese New Year, this year it took a few extra weeks and finally the last week some fresh money from investors has stepped in.  It is not clear if they saw opportunity, decided to move on from cryptocurrencies or have insight about future master set orders.  I picked up more coins in the last week than previous 4 months combined simply because prices at wholesale level are getting stronger, which allows me to buy coins that previously were sidelined for better times.  The big change I am seeing in the market is collectors are still watching, while purly investors  are buying up opportunistically. 

This survey has done a good job of identifying that 50% are buying opportunistically.  Looking forward to seeing how the next month turns out, if demand really does come back I am expecting a spike as very little omp material exist in weak hands, if demand remains weak, then flat will be the theme for the coming months.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2018, 07:32:16 AM »
Low MCC inventory in the US and Germany (probably worldwide as Asia -not China- is out of Chinese).   More collectors are discovering Chinese coins/medals worldwide because China has the economy and owns the gold.    China is sumo wrestling the 100 + yr old London Gold Price Fix to be gold price controlled by the East.   China has tested their Gold backed Petro Yuan and it is ready to go by end of this month March.    Who knows when, but the stars are aligned for Chinese collectibles and Chinese have the buying power.    I think this is finally the year.....

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2018, 10:18:44 AM »
After reading the comment about limited inventory of modern Chinese coins is the USA, Europe, etc., I visited Ebay and searched for modern Chinese gold coins and perused the list from most expensive down.  It appears Xu Hong and a few other Chinese dealers are willing to sell me a wide array of low mintage, high quality, modern Chinese coins.  After my seach, I felt a sense of comfort.  With a little money, I can buy anything I want for my collection and have someone ship it to me from Shanghai.  The rich Chinese businessman is not buying all of the inventory in the PRC, leaving a massive amount of the inventory for foreign collectors.  Just a thought from a small collector.  Now, I can relax and enjoy being a collector.

Mark Bonke

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2018, 01:17:05 PM »
Collectors are not participating and that means collector type coins may not move for some time.  My comments were for gold panda in particular, there I don't see many collectors participate regardless because the main demand driver is master set formation and that is controlled by investors and dealers.  Also spreads between varieties is still at 10 year lows, that is a clear sign all demand is investor driven with the goal of exiting to master set developers.

See the graph below, we have already gone through the full cycle a few times since 1982 and now we are back to stealth
 and awareness phase, for the public or collectors to come back it will take 20%-40% price movement from here to get them interested and those that do get interested will not be the same as those that bought in the public phase last time and got burnt holding too long, instead they will watch from the sidelines and miss the opportunity completely.

Cyrtocurrenicens we maybe at fear and capitulation phase, if that turns out to be correct, then when despair finally hits some of those investors will return to physical coins (bullion and numismatics).

For fun take look at a 2004 auction, I only wish I was smart enough to be aware back then, but it was a shealth market and only the smart money knew.
https://www.liveauctioneers.com/catalog/1117_estate-jewelry-pocket-watches-and-gold-coins/  items 62-123.  I would like the chance to buy items 87, 90, 91 for $3K plus premium 19.5%/each.  Item 86 is a real gem, but I know I would never put that much into a single coin back then, so I don't feel bad for missing that one. 

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #20 on: March 09, 2018, 05:35:38 AM »
After reading the comment about limited inventory of modern Chinese coins is the USA, Europe, etc., I visited Ebay and searched for modern Chinese gold coins and perused the list from most expensive down.  It appears Xu Hong and a few other Chinese dealers are willing to sell me a wide array of low mintage, high quality, modern Chinese coins.  After my seach, I felt a sense of comfort.  With a little money, I can buy anything I want for my collection and have someone ship it to me from Shanghai.  The rich Chinese businessman is not buying all of the inventory in the PRC, leaving a massive amount of the inventory for foreign collectors.  Just a thought from a small collector.  Now, I can relax and enjoy being a collector.

Mark Bonke

Apart from Xuhong a better option are the Stack’s and Heritage auctions held in Hong Kong.  These auctions are easily accessible via the web, selection is very good and pricing is also very good.  Plus shipping is done from US.  This April is Stacks and they have 2 sessions on MCC.  One is a live event and one is internet only.  I have found some of my best pieces at these events.  Finally there is also the Champion Auction in Macau that is also online but selection of MCC has been very poor to nonexistent the past several auctions. 

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #21 on: March 09, 2018, 08:11:03 AM »
The 2004 auction photos and prices are amazing.      I did not start stacking silver until 2007, same time i bought my first silver pandas.      Today, the stars are aligned for Chinese coins/medals.   
A few silver stackers have told me they sold or are selling their gold/silver to spend on vacation or other stupid stuff.    These weak hands have given up.    Don't people read?    Chinese have buying power now.....

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #22 on: March 09, 2018, 08:38:15 AM »
Chris

Thanks for the suggestion about the Stacks, Bowers & Ponterio auction.  When possible, I try to attend these auctions and watch the live bidding.  I have trouble bidding on the internet auctions (due to computer issues) when I am in Kowloon so I probably miss the best opportunities to add items to my collection.  I probably should stay at home and participate from my home computer.  When I stay at home, the auctions occur in the middle of the night (mountain standard time) and I fall asleep.  Hmmmm.  Maybe, I am not really destined to have a larger collection of coins.

Mark Bonke

Offline tater

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #23 on: March 09, 2018, 10:36:23 AM »
Chris

Thanks for the suggestion about the Stacks, Bowers & Ponterio auction.  When possible, I try to attend these auctions and watch the live bidding.  I have trouble bidding on the internet auctions (due to computer issues) when I am in Kowloon so I probably miss the best opportunities to add items to my collection.  I probably should stay at home and participate from my home computer.  When I stay at home, the auctions occur in the middle of the night (mountain standard time) and I fall asleep.  Hmmmm.  Maybe, I am not really destined to have a larger collection of coins.

Mark Bonke

I too am plagued by that mountain standard time and I have never been able to get a snipe program to work right.  Oh well I'll keep putting in my bid that I am willing to pay and let it ride.

Offline 1668Chris

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #24 on: March 09, 2018, 12:08:24 PM »
I’m on EST so it’s even more difficult for me.  But I do tend to stay awake and bid on the coins that I want. 

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #25 on: March 09, 2018, 01:20:26 PM »
At home, in good faith, I sign in and patiently watch the auction.  Within an hour, my eyes are closing.  I drink diet Coca Cola, hoping the caffeine will keep me awake.  It does not.  I enter my bids, go to sleep and always awaken to a list of coins which I did not purchase.  Frustrating.  I wonder why the companies are accomodating the local bidders in Kowloon when they could schedule the auctions to meet my needs.

Mark Bonke

Online PandaCollector

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2018, 06:35:24 PM »
I would just leave my bids with Stack's-Bowers & Ponterio (or Heritage, or Steve Album, for instance). Unlike a couple of other auction houses I do not hear complaints about them running up bids to the maximum pre-sale bids. OTOH, I have heard dealers talk (with passion!) to each other on this subject and warn each other other to never bid in advance with some other companies. I wonder what other people's experiences have been, good or bad.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

P.S. I am not implying this is a problem with every other auctioneer.

Offline bonke

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #27 on: March 10, 2018, 12:59:37 PM »
I have already placed bids in the upcoming Stacks Bowers & Ponterio auction in Kowloon and I am already the losing bidder on 6 items.  This does not portend well for my success in buying Chinese coins or currency in this auction.  Have other forum members already placed bids in any of the various Sessions of this auction?   If so, maybe, you are the bidder or bidders who have already outbid me in this auction.

Mark Bonke

Offline fwang2450

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #28 on: March 10, 2018, 01:27:12 PM »
I have been buying circulating coins, mainly Fen coins, with the help of buddies in China. The landscape of circulating coins (not circulating commemoratives) is very different from the precious metal coins. Prices are actually turning up at the moment, after a lull in the past few years.

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Are You Buying, Watching, or Selling?
« Reply #29 on: March 10, 2018, 03:25:20 PM »
I assume all the auctions houses will take the bid up to mine and then I either win at my max price or another real buyer takes its.  I don't mind auction houses shill bidding against me because the bid I put in is the price I am willing to pay.  I don't stay up to watch, just bid and let it ride, for most coins I know where the other dealers bids will land so I want to bid early and lock that price in so they have to take it up another increment if they really want it.  It is in the best interest of the auction house to bid up prices so they can collect a larger bidder premium and I always assume they will play towards their best interest.

I have watched over the years auction houses shill bid up to mail order or internet bid, one auctioneer in HK literally looks at the ceiling and points at the sky as he increments prices until the mail order price is reached and then announced sold to book at $$.  Another auction in the US I sat directly behind the book computer and internet computer admins, everytime book bid was higher than internet, an internet bidder emerged, once book bid was reached, internet bidder disappeared, then it came down to floor bidder vs book bidder, say this occur for 20+ items in a row.   Another auction house sometimes closes bidding so fast on some items that it appears they want the item to sell cheaply to a friend of the auction house at the expense of the consigner.   That same auction house also plays the other side, it has the consignor representative bid up an item to a crazy price, then the consigner sells at the show afterward an identical coin in a different slab or sometimes the same slab at slightly lower price than auction price a day earlier.  There are too many games that can be played during auctions that one just has to pick a price they are comfortable buying at and ignore all the shenanigans.  For some of these auction houses I simply no longer bid, because of all the horror stories about bidding manipulations, in accurate coin descriptions, consigners not getting paid, shipping charges excessive and shipping delays (one auction house took 2+ months to ship despite requesting  payment within 2 days).