Author Topic: Registry winner include panda coin collectors  (Read 4393 times)

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Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #120 on: February 09, 2018, 01:48:52 AM »
Statement: I have no, none, zero inside knowledge of David Hall's actions, or anything else going on at PCGS, for that matter. I didn't even know he is a seller. That said, I can think of less obvious reasons that could explain the selling, but it is pure speculation on my part. I just wouldn't jump to any conclusions.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Why is a statement necessary, do you work for PCGS these days?

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #121 on: February 09, 2018, 01:59:03 AM »
Why is a statement necessary, do you work for PCGS these days?

I was expressing a personal opinion, that is all. Problem?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com


Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #122 on: February 09, 2018, 02:08:26 AM »
:-) no

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #123 on: February 09, 2018, 08:22:35 AM »
Why would D Hall be a big seller of PCGS stock?       
NGC grades over 2 million coins a year.     Could the bulk of rare world coins be graded?
Lots of new grading companies in China.     Could technology be taking over human inspection of coins?
Just my guesstimate.....

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #124 on: February 09, 2018, 11:40:24 PM »
All knowing KeyDatePanda1/2s, please predict where the DOW Jones is headed next. I want to know if you truly are profetic, or just another Harry Dent :)

I don't have any interest in following the dow, I prefer to bet on technologies of the future, cash flow assets or collectibles. 

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #125 on: February 10, 2018, 12:00:06 AM »

Why would D Hall be a big seller of PCGS stock?       
NGC grades over 2 million coins a year.     Could the bulk of rare world coins be graded?
Lots of new grading companies in China.     Could technology be taking over human inspection of coins?
Just my guesstimate.....

Peter thinks personal reasons.  I believe that when you sell 1/3 of your holdings (600K shares at start of year to 400K now) over a course of a year in a company you have been part of for 30 years it is a strategic decision. 

He has every right to sell and if I were him I would sold 100% of my shares once they broke low 20s.  What is interesting is the flawless timing of it, just as many of us dealers were turning against bullion type coins the sale transactions started occurring.  One advantage of being a dealer vs collector or investor is as a dealer we saw all this IRA bullion and collector/investor start to come to market in a big way as Trump pro business agenda was unfolding and stock market continued to climb with little volatility and crytos caught the attention of many.  This was a clear message that bullion will be in trouble later in the year, which means grading companies would struggle as their primary revenue is grading new bullion issues.  The worst part was you couldn't short CLCT, because it had high dividend and that carrying cost made the short very expense to hold.

PCGS dominance is in vintage coins, there are very few of these floating around that need certification, their big push has already happened and from a grading perspective this will be a declining revenue forever.  China grading companies I don't know if that matters, but what does matter is mint and/or dealers prefer to sell in fancy boxes rather than slabs all the newer issues.  There are dealers that are looking into computer graded coins, I don't know how close we are to a true AI algo to do this, but it would certainly be a good investment to make. 


Offline Pandaguy

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #126 on: February 10, 2018, 12:24:15 AM »
Peter thinks personal reasons.  I believe that when you sell 1/3 of your holdings (600K shares at start of year to 400K now) over a course of a year in a company you have been part of for 30 years it is a strategic decision. 

He has every right to sell and if I were him I would sold 100% of my shares once they broke low 20s.  What is interesting is the flawless timing of it, just as many of us dealers were turning against bullion type coins the sale transactions started occurring.  One advantage of being a dealer vs collector or investor is as a dealer we saw all this IRA bullion and collector/investor start to come to market in a big way as Trump pro business agenda was unfolding and stock market continued to climb with little volatility and crytos caught the attention of many.  This was a clear message that bullion will be in trouble later in the year, which means grading companies would struggle as their primary revenue is grading new bullion issues.  The worst part was you couldn't short CLCT, because it had high dividend and that carrying cost made the short very expense to hold.

PCGS dominance is in vintage coins, there are very few of these floating around that need certification, their big push has already happened and from a grading perspective this will be a declining revenue forever.  China grading companies I don't know if that matters, but what does matter is mint and/or dealers prefer to sell in fancy boxes rather than slabs all the newer issues.  There are dealers that are looking into computer graded coins, I don't know how close we are to a true AI algo to do this, but it would certainly be a good investment to make. 



I also think it was for personal reasons and not business reasons. His timing WAS flawed! If he knew something, he would have waited to sell only one month later, and he would have gotten substantially more ($30+ per share). Sure, the recent dump in the share price is mostly due to the dividend cut, but also to the recent dump in the Dow coupled with the fact that this equity is very thinly traded (low share transaction volume).

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #127 on: February 10, 2018, 06:21:47 AM »
It doesn’t work that way with timing for major inside owners.  You have to set up a trading plan months in advance that sells during certain unrestricted periods, so you can’t be acused of insider trading.  I have spent a lot of time studying insider trading plans to help make decisions which sectors to invest in. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #128 on: February 10, 2018, 12:11:05 PM »
It doesn’t work that way with timing for major inside owners.  You have to set up a trading plan months in advance that sells during certain unrestricted periods, so you can’t be acused of insider trading.  I have spent a lot of time studying insider trading plans to help make decisions which sectors to invest in. 

It kind of funny; same facts, different conclusion – or at least I see two equal possibilities.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #129 on: February 11, 2018, 07:12:29 PM »
Read this on Steve Quayle.    Hal Turner radio show.    "World news  something very serious is happening w/ banks - they have almost stopped lending to each other."......

Now Goldenlord tells us Germany is low on Chinese.    Members here tell us the US has low inventory.    How about Japan? 
   Other Asian countries (besides China) sold out years ago.    Guess they all found their way back to China........

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #130 on: February 11, 2018, 09:06:27 PM »
Guess they all found their way back to China........

One difference that this makes is that the coins cannot be legally melted in China, unless the government does it. Twenty years ago, in a very slow market and with precious metal prices wobbly, Western store owners converted Chinese coins into bars that could be sold on commodity exchanges. Because so many coins are legally protected today the supply is less fluid, more or less frozen in place waiting for a thaw.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com



Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #131 on: February 11, 2018, 11:25:39 PM »
That is a great point about coins can't being melted in China, never consider that.  I wonder if medals can legally be melted by mainland dealers. 

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #132 on: February 11, 2018, 11:52:25 PM »
I wonder if medals can legally be melted by mainland dealers. 

As far as I know, yes.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline Pandora

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #133 on: February 13, 2018, 05:10:26 PM »
Chart of the day, PCGS stock price.  35% drop after reporting bad earnings.  Buying opportunity or first nail in the coffin?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CLCT?p=CLCT

If PCGS goes down/away, all its products become collector items...no, oops! collector items within collector items  N17 N17 :001_tt2:

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #134 on: February 13, 2018, 11:42:01 PM »
I would be happy to sell you some ANCS holder MS70 at a premium to NGC MS70, so you can play out your theory.  What actually will happen if PCGS disappears, is NGC will offer cross over service and worst case crack and reholder to a lower grade, which is what I currently do for ANCS and PCGS holder coins in anticipation of a day where only NGC exist.