Author Topic: Registry winner include panda coin collectors  (Read 9121 times)

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Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #60 on: January 27, 2018, 04:29:35 AM »
2017 may be better than 2015, but both I think are much more plentiful compared to anything from 1989-2010.   

I disagree with my friend here.

I got an investor to buy 100x 2017 1/2 at melt plus 5% from me based on your article in pricepedia, another investor I know probably bought 30-50 from another dealer at 4% over.   

It is good to hear that that people found some merit in my writing.

When I look at the type of buyers that eventually bought them, the hoard risk is too great.  We all saw what happens when 100 pieces of 1997 1/2 hit the market this last summer and fall or Stacks/Bowers dumping of lunar coins a few years back in multiple back to back auctions, the market isn't deep enough to absorb 100 pieces of any coin over short period of a few months.


So the risk is that a coin could drop from 7x melt to 5 or 4X melt when a hoard was released? Compared to buying at 4-5% above melt, 400% sounds pretty sweet to me. In addition there was only one real buyer for the '97s.

I also would not predict how deep the market will be in a decade. In the meantime your buyer has made a solid profit (so far) on the gold 2017 15 gram Pandas. That the underlying metal was undervalued was part of the motivation for buying something that was abysmally unpopular at the time.


I don't agree physical demand is a lagging indicator when prices are rising, when prices are falling, yes physical demand is a lagging indicator.  Right now we have some of the strongest paper momentum in the gold market, yet nobody wants physical gold, they all want paper gold.   

Well that's the observation of a bright guy who has seen several more gold cycles than most people (and is much older than youthful Arif). Take it or leave it, I found it interesting enough to pass on.


With greater acceptance of digital assets happening all over the world, I think physical bullion will have a smaller role in the investment world, people will prefer to own paper gold in lieu of bullion.  Numismatic gold and silver will continue to be desirable, because they can't be replaced by electronic trading as the chinese exchanges found out.   All my purchase of bullion will be either GLD, mining stocks or via futures, I have no desire to buy physical bullion anymore even if it is discounted below melt.  Of course if world war III breaks out I will be sorry with the last paragraph, but I don't think I need to plan my future based on a war scenario in which no one will survive. 

OK, maybe it is different this time.

Thanks to Arif for the point-counterpoint. I hope everyone is having a good time and thinking about our views, too.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #61 on: January 27, 2018, 04:39:03 AM »
Strong gold demand in China last year is a fact, especially gold bars, driven by investors buying as reported. Could it be bullion coins (pandas) are out of favor? This would be a scenario I really hate to see.


It is not retail customers who are taking delivery of massive quantities of 100 oz. (or any other weight) gold bars in China, now. The jewelry industry is a possibility. It is ubiquitous, here.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com

Offline mook

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #62 on: January 27, 2018, 05:23:54 AM »
Interesting discussion

What I know:

All financial assets are in a historic bubble
Central banks are in the corner
We printed trillions of money
The dollar system is at the end
Bitcoin is a symptom of all this
Gold has done nothing and more people do not want it.

What I learned

We do not know the value of physical gold for centuries (gold standard, bretton woods, future market)
We buy when nobody wants (not everyone, see Russia))
After the rain, always good weather.

Livermoore said, that he always sat on his positions when the fundamentals was favorable, the fondamenatux for the physical gold have never been so favorable, I sit on my position and when I earn a little money I strengthen my position.

Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #63 on: January 27, 2018, 07:55:37 AM »
In time there will be a flood to gold/silver.     Be a strong hand and hold tight/add more.      Up down, then more up down until we go to liftoff.      Many articles say watch the end of Chinese New Years about Feb 14th?    It is possible China will ramp up the Petro Yuan and/or gold backed Yuan.    Lets see is anything plays out but i am still a solid believer in owning Chinese money and the best is gold/silver minted in China.......

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #64 on: January 27, 2018, 08:20:16 AM »
There has always been a steady trade in physical gold world over but most pronounced in Asia and associated regions. This takes the form of ornaments and coins, which act as a socially accepted store of wealth, and women are prominent participants here. It is however not publicized and the extent of accumulation is not fully appreciated at first glance. I believe it is substantial because I have seen it happen in the past. You can regard this as one of the gold buffers.

Government accumulation of gold is another substantial gold buffer. However, no one knows exactly what governments’ plans are!

Gold speculators don’t have any allegiance to the gold itself and are most likely sector rotators, here today gone tomorrow. Therefore, their influence on the trajectory of gold itself may not be permanent. It makes sense for them to invest digitally in gold because it allows them to be nimble.

I believe that there will always be a critical mass of people who accumulate physical gold either as collectors or family wealth builders. They tend to be silent but are most favored to capitalize on any downturn in gold prices because it allows them to accumulate more. I can’t foresee any future in which people do not accumulate physical gold (and Silver)!

IMO!
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Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2018, 12:23:33 PM »
I see Bitcoin and some other cryptocurrencies challenging existing perceptions regarding money. This could be the dawn of the money revolution. Peer-to-peer payments that can be made independent of an intermediary will shake things up as email did to the postal service. Government debt/economy/military backed currencies aren't going anywhere, nor are banks. That said future will have exponential growth in payments not going through  Banks/ VISA/ MASTERCARD/ PayPal.

In time, with the conversation ongoing about what money really is - I would expect more focus on the precious metals and for a symbiotic relationship at some point between two. Even now, many coin dealers like APMEX have positioned themselves to accept bitcoin payments.

Offline r3globe

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2018, 05:22:49 PM »
Wow very interesting, informative, and eye-opening discussion. Over the past 2-3 months, I have been chatting with multiple coin dealers and attending coin shows.Everything said here is very consistent with my discussions. You go to a show and everyone is desperate for cash (I do not take the word desperate lightly)!!! I have never been treated better because they think I have cash to spend. I avoid bullion like the plague and look for rare/numismatic coins with very motivated sellers. Dealers are paying 3%-5% less than melt for gold coins INCLUDING PROOF American eagles! In flea markets, dealers pay $100/per oz less than melt!

The negative sentiment is a requirement for the bottom to be made, but I am not sure if this negative "enough!" I learned that final bottoms are not made until things get so tough that a lot of bankruptcies and some suicide happens (very horrible) by a known dealer or a businessman!!! I do not know if there is such a thing happening in the coin precious metals business. Sorry for bringing up this morbid aspect.

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2018, 07:04:44 PM »
In time, with the conversation ongoing about what money really is - I would expect more focus on the precious metals and for a symbiotic relationship at some point between two. Even now, many coin dealers like APMEX have positioned themselves to accept bitcoin payments.

Offline baron88

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2018, 07:13:20 PM »
I was wondering how APMEX and other dealers cope with the volatility of bitcoin. In December when bitcoin hit the $20,000 mark briefly many smart bitcoin owners got out by buying gold form these dealers. Price then quickly took a 50% drop. Unless dealers hedge their bitcoin position at the future exchange, they are Trapped big time right now.

Offline ccl

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2018, 07:18:54 PM »
they can hedge that way now or just liquidate the BTC within 30 min on an exchange manually or maybe via API

Offline PandaCollector

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2018, 07:21:12 PM »
I was wondering how APMEX and other dealers cope with the volatility of bitcoin. In December when bitcoin hit the $20,000 mark briefly many smart bitcoin owners got out by buying gold form these dealers. Price then quickly took a 50% drop. Unless dealers hedge their bitcoin position at the future exchange, they are Trapped big time right now.

If you need to hedge the value of the money, or medium of exchange, you accept as payment that would be a significant expense.  It's like getting hyperinflation or hyperdeflation in one day, maybe both?

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
China Pricepedia
The Gold & Silver Panda Coin Buyer’s Guide 3
www.pandacollector.com


Offline pandamonium

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #72 on: January 28, 2018, 08:03:49 AM »
Goldseek by Steve Angelo   "The coming market crash will set off the biggest gold panic buying in history".         I still agree, gold and silver are the bottom line and the sheeple still do not get the picture......

Offline KeyDate1/2ozPandas

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #73 on: January 28, 2018, 11:13:48 AM »
Most people on here do believe gold will go up.  I too think it will do well if it breaks the multi-year resistance between $1400-$1450.  Where I disagree is what form of gold will people buy, the old school thinking is physical gold (most of these people will be out of the market in the next 10-20 years), my thinking is more aligned with the 20-40 years old and it is paper gold (GLD, mining shares, futures) and these folks will be in the market for another 30-50 years.  With KYC/AML requirements becoming more strict, buying physical gold is and will become much less desirable.  With the younger generations accepting electronic assets as equivalent to physical assets, I think you will see a shift away from physical bullion purchases over the next 10-20 years. 

Anyone that bought bullion at a spread of 3%-5% over melt, today is selling at below melt, while if they bought the ETF the bid ask spread is a few cents, plus small annual expense ratio which is far less than cost of safe deposit box with private insurance.  For numismatic coins we don't have an ETF or futures contract to own, for those coins owning the physical is the only option and they should do well when collector and investor demand spikes.

Offline KeepOnTrying!

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Re: Registry winner include panda coin collectors
« Reply #74 on: January 28, 2018, 11:47:28 AM »
Most people on here do believe gold will go up.  I too think it will do well if it breaks the multi-year resistance between $1400-$1450.  Where I disagree is what form of gold will people buy, the old school thinking is physical gold (most of these people will be out of the market in the next 10-20 years), my thinking is more aligned with the 20-40 years old and it is paper gold (GLD, mining shares, futures) and these folks will be in the market for another 30-50 years.  With KYC/AML requirements becoming more strict, buying physical gold is and will become much less desirable.  With the younger generations accepting electronic assets as equivalent to physical assets, I think you will see a shift away from physical bullion purchases over the next 10-20 years. 

Anyone that bought bullion at a spread of 3%-5% over melt, today is selling at below melt, while if they bought the ETF the bid ask spread is a few cents, plus small annual expense ratio which is far less than cost of safe deposit box with private insurance.  For numismatic coins we don't have an ETF or futures contract to own, for those coins owning the physical is the only option and they should do well when collector and investor demand spikes.

Paper gold investments are just like thousands of stocks out there. The decision to own them should not depend on whether one is a gold aficionado or not; it depends on conclusions reached after unbiased fundamental analysis of competing stocks. I know people invest in those gold stocks but a disproportionately higher number of people invest in other stocks that continue to do better than those gold delimited stocks. Yes, there could be a place for gold stocks in an investment portfolio but they need to duke it out with other stocks to establish that position. Again just IMO!
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That lion is also after you!