Topic: Registry winner include panda coin collectors

[baron88]

GBTC’s premium is determined by supply and demand. One can check out its discount/premium to NAV everyday. But most importantly is its price action. When bitcoin was traded around $3,000, GBTC was at $330. Today it closed at $1,636. And that is down from $3,523 just about a month ago. The point is, if you buy low, there is still nice profit to be made, regardless of the premium you paid. Crytocurrency has lost its initial purpose and intent, and become a big speculative game. I hope those who sold their mcc holdings and got into the game, made some good money and got out already. This is the most volatile price action I I've seen since the year 2000 dot com bubble.

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

I am not fan of GBTC anymore, it was fine when it was the only publicly traded security to own despite high premium to NAV, but now with more equities and ETFs coming out the premium will shrink and you could lose 30% during a flat bitcoin price market. 

The dot come bubble was scary as it was my first experience with bubble popping, but relatively it was like watching paint dry compared to bitcoins, take look at this chart comparing various bubbles.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-01-17/did-bitcoin-just-burst-how-it-compares-to-history-s-big-bubbles

Owning cyrotos is like owning paper money stored in a house filled with natural gas, any moment it could go up in smoke or if no spark occurs business as usual.  Today bitconnect exchange platform announced it was shutting down in a week, its tokens to finance its operation and to own a piece of the platform equity dropped by 90%, it probably will drop by 100% by the end of the week.  The owners sold tokens (equity) in the business say at $400 and now are running away with the proceeds and there is nothing investors can do about it.  This is why governments are getting involved.   
https://www.coindesk.com/bitconnect-investors-left-lurch-tokens-price-drops-90/amp/

Finally, today people are switching from cyrotos to physical gold, at least in europe.  The mcc sellers will probably not switch back until they lose everything based on the personalities involved.  They held mcc for far longer than they should and will certainly hold cyrotos way longer than they should. 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-17/online-gold-sales-quintupled-as-bitcoin-plunged-coininvest-says 

[baron88]

As I know the SEC has rejected all bitcoin ETF applications to date. And I am curious as to why you said if gold breaks above $1,400 you will be on board?

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Two block chain ETF launched today. 
http://www.altcointoday.com/the-first-blockchain-etfs-have-launched-on-the-nasdaq-exchange/   

I am much more technical trader for gold, as fundamentals haven't worked for the last 6 years.  Despite all the craziness in the world gold has done nothing, but go down or trade sideways.  A break above $1400 would signal breakout of multi year pattern and a high likelihood of testing prior high.  Sold out of my entire bullion position in 2017 after a 10 year hold for many of the coins like strips of 1986-1988 gold panda proof sets.  If gold breaks I will buy mining shares and stay liquid until breakout is confirmed.

[jc888888888]

  Arif  I love your analogy sitting  in the house filled with natural gas LOL I might add with a chain smoker sitting in the living room LOL I am also watching the action on the ETF BLOK Interesting

[baron88]

To clarify, block chain ETFs are not cryptocurrency or bitcoin ETFs. They own block chain tech company stocks. I am watching them closely too. Am especially interested in which company stocks they buy. As for gold, last year I did buy a few 2017 Gold panda halfs, just in case they become rare coins based on the fact gold coins sales was one of the lowest ever.

[r3globe]

Two block chain ETF launched today. 
http://www.altcointoday.com/the-first-blockchain-etfs-have-launched-on-the-nasdaq-exchange/   

I am much more technical trader for gold, as fundamentals haven't worked for the last 6 years.  Despite all the craziness in the world gold has done nothing, but go down or trade sideways.  A break above $1400 would signal breakout of multi year pattern and a high likelihood of testing prior high.  Sold out of my entire bullion position in 2017 after a 10 year hold for many of the coins like strips of 1986-1988 gold panda proof sets.  If gold breaks I will buy mining shares and stay liquid until breakout is confirmed.

For me, I am very very humbled by the market. This forum is great because I can always come and read the analysis of people who are much smarter than I am.

To load up on Gold and Mining shares, I have been waiting for the retest of $875-$1000 level for 2-3 years  I thought that the market needs this move to clear all optimism in the market. We could have bottomed, but the possibility of the retest of the $1000 gold level has been extended another 2-3 years. Yes, gold prices are going up, but silver seems to lag. In bull markets, silver usually leads aggressively, and we are not seeing that.

From Arif's experience, it appears to me that the Gold Panda market went through a Panic selling of sorts last year which could mean we finally bottomed ? Even if Gold prices have not bottomed or are destined to go sideways for another 2-3 years, MCC market has probably bottomed with gold pandas leading the way. Is there a "lag" and/or "divergence" between Gold/Silver prices and MCC market? I know for example that American Numismatics peaked much later than the 1980 Gold peak.

[Mirkkanen]

I don't see the recent action in the MCC market as panic selling,  however, I am not a dealer so I don't have access to that level of information. I see the MCC market as moving in waves, each wave being triggered by a new catalyst, and each pull back a result of changing Chinese demand. I don't think MCC price has much of anything in common with the spot price of metals. Am I wrong?

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

There was no panic selling, everyone was selling around market prices and prices didn’t move much.  Where there has been problems is bullion coins, those with numismatic premiums of 15% of less, they were very hard to move above melt.  Also low grade ms67 and lower have been tough to move, without master set demand there is almost no demand for them, while when master set demand comes back we will see ms67 trade almost like ms68 vs now they are trading at 20-50% premium discounts.

For years I was proven wrong about not keeping ms67-68 coins as investments, as they traded almost at same price as ms69, but now without master set demand, owning ms69 has provided strong liquidity, while the lower grades are much less liquid to almost illiquid for ms67 and below. Always invest in assets that can be sold during worst of times so you can cash out when needed.

[r3globe]

There was no panic selling, everyone was selling around market prices and prices didn’t move much.  Where there has been problems is bullion coins, those with numismatic premiums of 15% of less, they were very hard to move above melt.  Also low grade ms67 and lower have been tough to move, without master set demand there is almost no demand for them, while when master set demand comes back we will see ms67 trade almost like ms68 vs now they are trading at 20-50% premium discounts.

For years I was proven wrong about not keeping ms67-68 coins as investments, as they traded almost at same price as ms69, but now without master set demand, owning ms69 has provided strong liquidity, while the lower grades are much less liquid to almost illiquid for ms67 and below. Always invest in assets that can be sold during worst of times so you can cash out when needed.

I guess using "panic selling" was wrong. There seemed to be "loss of faith" in gold pandas as an investment by long term holders. I am not sure how widespread that is? Do you care to comment on where MCC prices are in terms of the cycle?

I don't see the recent action in the MCC market as panic selling,  however, I am not a dealer so I don't have access to that level of information. I see the MCC market as moving in waves, each wave being triggered by a new catalyst, and each pull back a result of changing Chinese demand. I don't think MCC price has much of anything in common with the spot price of metals. Am I wrong?

It seems you are describing "sector rotation". The money keeps chasing the overlooked until it is frothy then it looks somewhere else.

[Mirkkanen]

Yes, sector rotation has definitely been happening, based on Master Set needs. And I don't think MCC holders are questioning long term investment potential as much as they were opting to test the waters in another speculative play (Cryptos) that could produce stronger retuens in the near term. They were correct because of the immaturity of the crypto market.

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Good article about Warren philosophy, which I very much subscribe, just say no to everything so you can focus on a few things you know very well.  This is why I never branched out into many other countries as all world coin dealers do.  Northbay is the same way, US and China only, no need to expand just for the sake of expanding, even though many other countries are red hot while US and China are cold. 

https://www.inc.com/marcel-schwantes/warren-buffett-says-this-is-1-simple-habit-that-separates-successful-people-from-everyone-else.html 

[KeyDate1/2ozPandas]

Two trends that are surprising and almost in stealth mode as main streams media is ignoring it.

1) US dollar making multi year lows, with yuan getting close to its Dec 2013 peak.

2) Gold quietly making progress week by week. A lot institutional money is flowing into gold indicates a bias towards inflation and/or hedge for instant turn from current prosperity.

Unfortunately none of these are helping mcc advance prices.  Has the general public soured after losing money in exchanges, missing out on stock market, real estate, or crypto surge, collectors are retiring and want more liquid assets, crack down on corruption is actually working in China and young generation have other interests than collecting coins.  All these cross currents will make 2018 a unique year that will be hard to forecast.

[jc888888888]

Agreed..... MCC has been dead money at the very least .....Even collectors like myself are not committing new money...If I didn't like my collection so much the smart move would be to sell it and redeploy the moneys..look at the stock market IMHO  , there is no crash coming no geo political news has moved it down,I dont think anything short of a nuclear warhead will. Daily... large corporations are spitting out pay raises ,bonuses and share buy backs due to this tax cut, earnings are rocketing skyward solely based upon it . Can the market correct ? It absolutely will ... it drops 5 to 20% and will race right back up there is monumental cash on the sidelines. Crypto? (pyramid scheme) you can get rich trading it for sure ....but that is a game for less than 1% of retail investors.The stock market is actually quite safe like the new CD if you have a 2 to 5 year time horizon and dont knee jerk sell during a short lived correction  the odds of any crash and it staying down are close to zero. There is only one thing IMHO to get MCC moving and that is a serious move up in the metals ...folks might start paying attention with a gold price north of 1450.One can hope..............My collection is for my kids so whatever it is it is is my attitude.

[mook]

JC88888.

The stock market started a terminal blow off, it will crash this year.